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Did A Tap On The Shoulder "Prevent" The US Economy From Sliding Into Recession?
The US Ministry of Truth has been hard at work the last month and nowhere is that more evident than in the blatant "tap on the shoulder" that The National Association of Credit Managers must have got this week... to revise their catastrophic indicators back to 'stable'...
Two weeks ago we highlighted what was a stunningly clear indication of the looming recessionary environment (that The Atlanta Fed is now also seemingly suggesting and is consistent with the worst collapse in macro data since 2008). The largest spike in 'credit application rejections' indicated a credit crunch and "serious financial stress manifesting in the data and this does not bode well for the growth of the economy going forward."
According to the CMI, the Rejections of Credit Applications index just crashed the most ever, surpassing even the credit crunch at the peak of the Lehman crisis.
This can be seen on the chart below.
And without any new credit entering the economy, a recession is all but assured.
More details on what may be the most critical and completely underreported indicator for the US economy. The report continues, with such a dire narrative that one wonders how it passed through the US Ministry of Truth's propaganda meter:
By far the most disturbing is the rejection of credit applications as this has fallen from an already weak 48.1 to 42.9. This is credit crunch territory—unseen since the very start of the recession. Suddenly companies are having a very hard time getting credit. The accounts placed for collection reading slipped below 50 with a fall from 50.8 to 49.8 and that suggests that many companies are beyond slow pay and are faltering badly. The disputes category improved very slightly from 48.8 to 49, but is still below 50. This indicates that more companies are in such distress they are not bothering to dispute; they are just trying to survive. The dollar amount beyond terms slipped even deeper into contraction with a reading of 45.5 after a previous reading of 48.4. The dollar amount of customer deductions slipped out of the 50s as it went from 51.8 to 48.7. The only semi-bright spot was that filings for bankruptcies stayed almost the same—going from 55.0 to 55.1. This is the one and only category in the unfavorable list that did not fall into contraction territory and that suggests that there are big, big problems as far as the financial security of these companies are concerned.
Which NACM summed up thus:
The rejections of credit applications is as miserable as it has been since the depths of the recession—going from 45.9 to 42.0.These are very bad readings and it will take a good long while to climb out of this mess.
* * *
Soon after we exposed this shocking hole in the US economic growth meme, the sell-side banks exploded into a fit of narrative recomposition and excuse-finding...
Goldman Sachs "narrative"...
Credit standards tightened sharply during the Great Recession and have gradually eased over the past few years. However, a recent sharp deterioration in the NACM Credit Managers’ Index—a series which has typically not generated much market interest—has prompted questions about whether credit standards are tightening anew.
The NACM index captures terms of trade credit extended to businesses by suppliers. As such, it does not reflect directly on credit standards imposed by commercial banks on C&I, CRE, mortgage, or consumer loans. The recent downturn in the index appears to be partly related to more cautious credit extension from suppliers to smaller energy sector firms. Even so, the extent of the recent weakness is surprising.
Despite a reasonable narrative for credit tightness in the energy sector, the fact that the NACM index is a diffusion index should naturally down-weight extreme changes among a limited subset of respondents. As a result, the extent of recent weakness appears surprising. According to our equity analysts, large producers of industrial machinery have generally not indicated significantly tighter terms of trade credit, and auto dealers do not seem to be facing difficulty obtaining floor plan financing (i.e. financing inventories). In addition, C&I loans—the closest analog to the coverage of the NACM index with regard to bank lending—has continued to grow at a healthy rate according to the Fed’s weekly H.8 release, although changes in credit conditions are likely to show up in loan growth only with a lag. Finally, credit-related questions in the NFIB's small business survey revealed a slight tightening in March, but not nearly as much as suggested by the NACM index.
Overall, absent deterioration in the SLOOS data—which is more comprehensive and in our opinion probably more reliable—we would be reluctant to read too much into the recent volatility in the NACM index with regard to broader credit conditions.
UBS "narrative" before...
Credit is the lifeblood of the world economy, and we believe the retrenchment of lenders from extending new credit is a highly reliable leading indicator of future problems for borrowers and the economy at large.
...recent monthly surveys from the National Association of Credit Management’s Credit Managers Index (CMI) paint a picture in stark contrast. Simply put, measures of trade credit (the financing of receivables and inventories) have deteriorated sharply from January to March and are at their worst level since the financial crisis. We believe this data point should not be dismissed, and is an indication of the negative credit ramifications from dollar strength and falling EM demand.
It may indicate that stressed borrowers are reaching for a lifeline and getting rejected. This was seen during the financial crisis when demand for trade financing increased even as banks cut supply.
And UBS "narrative" after...
The severe drop in the NACM credit market index has been revised away. In a recent economic comment titled "Credit Controversy", we had called attention to the National Association of Credit Management Credit Market Index, which plummeted in March. That weakness has now been partly revised away, and April data suggest stabilization. The credit market index has certainly softened, but its decline more closely resembles earlier soft spots during the current expansion. Before this revision, it had more closely resembled the runup to the credit crisis.
And BofAML "narrative" destroying NACM data...
Periodically an obscure economic indicator or survey pops up on the radar screen, suggesting something big is happening in the economy. The latest example is the Credit Manager’s Index.
Before we hit the panic button, consider four facts. First, it only deals with trade credit – credit a firm extends to its customers (typically other firms) to facilitate sales. It is not a measure of bank credit or credit more broadly in the economy. To the extent that a lack of trade credit would ultimately hurt sales, the recent decline may be self-limiting. Second, it appears to be a relatively ad hoc survey, so it is possible that the addition or exclusion of a few key respondents could significantly move the index – although the group that puts it together suggests that is not the case.
Third, it fell largely because of a collapse in just two of the ten components in this index: “amount of credit extended” and “rejection of credit applications” (where a drop in the former means less credit extended while a drop in the latter means a larger number of rejected applications). So there is apparently some sort of minicrunch in trade credit according to this sample. Finally, despite its alleged great prediction record it didn’t drop below 50 in 2008 until after the recession had started. The “rejection of credit applications” component, that is signaling disaster today, didn’t drop below 50 until the middle of the recession.
In sum, like many such indicators this survey probably is useful for members of the narrow industry it covers. However, there is a good reason why macroeconomists like us had never heard of the survey.
* * *
And so - after all that - we get April's data from NACM. If ever there was a more clear indication of a firm getting a major tap on the shoulder to 'fix' the data or face 'consequences' this was it. Against a background of detrimental commentary from Goldman Sachs, BofAML, and UBS, NACM revised (massively) the last two months data, in their words, "to be "more consistent with the numbers that had been seen throughout the past year," instantly removing any looming recessionary indicator (along with any credibility they had). NACM explains their "revisions":
The big declines in amount of credit extended in February and March have been revised from 52.1 and 46.1 respectively to 60.5 and 60.6 - more consistent with the numbers that had been seen throughout the past year.
The numbers for rejections of credit applications went from 48.1 in February to 51.4 and March went from 42.9 to 2.6.
The remainder of the categories were unchanged...
NOTE: How exactly does one revise survey respondents answers from the last two months? Ask then again now how they felt in Feb? Did they lie at the time about the credit application rejections? The CMI polls 1,000 trade credit managers across the US and asks respondents to qualitatively assess changes in lending conditions from prior months. The index constructed is a diffusion index, similar to PMI indices (any readings greater than 50 indicate an economy in expansion, any readings less than 50 indicate an economy in contraction).
This leaves us with this chart as the plainest indication yet of the smoke and mirrors bullshit being pulled on every gullible non-skeptical American about the state of their nation:
And, for those who shrug this off as "well, it's just seasonal adjustments" or "well, it's just Zero Hedge conspiracy stuff again," here is none other than the NACM last month destroying their own future credibility by removing any doubt that the collapse in the data was an aberration...
We now know that the readings of last month were not a fluke or some temporary aberration that could be marked off as something related to the weather.
There is quite obviously some serious financial stress manifesting in the data and this does not bode well for the growth of the economy going forward. These readings are as low as they have been since the recession started and to see everything start to get back on track would take a substantial reversal at this stage.
The data from the CMI is not the only place where this distress is showing up, but thus far, it may be the most profound.
You decide - does this look like a normal 'revision' (that remember only took place in the two sub-indices that showed dramatic weakness and none of the others) - or is this a giant "tap on the shoulder" from someone to 'fix it or you're f##ked!"?
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Ok, now things look scary.
... How exactly does one revise survey respondents answers from the last two months?
Silly… you just seasonably adjust to whatever you want it to be.
Love,
Dennis Gartman
Bring out the frilly knickers and party like it's 1929.
It's not even a rhyme, it's a frigging repeat.
Loosen lending
Tighten money supply
Tighten lending
Swallow resulting weak banks
Rinse and re frigging peat.
Like clockwork, S&L crisis was just a greedy greedy aberration by the Bushes because they could.
...
^-^
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNYSDv3EpW8
I am hoping to get another 2-3 months out of the system before collapse.
Am I being realistic?
Depends where you live, to some it's already collapsed.
On an aside -- I had to do a report on a couple asset classes in the States over the past few months. I submitted it to my boss in the States on Wednesday of last week. I laid out essentially and irrefutiably why the asset classes are horribly over-valued, most of the barometers used to measure their value are horribly bastardized, and why we should avoid them like the plague.
My boss sent me an email Thursday in the US around noon EST -- where he said he did not appreciate me injecting my opinions into the report and I should try again without a biased approach. As an example, he said I should take out the labor force participation rate as it is a biased barometer and should use Federal Unemployment numbers exclusivly. He said I should quit comparing the CPI to vairous food, energy,education and medical care price indexes, as it presents an unfair picuture of the USD's purchasing power of these assets and should focus on the CPI instead. He said the Baltic dry index is irrelevant and our clients care more about equity performances, and I should take out the BDI.
Essentially he wants to lie through my teeth to these people. I don't know what to do, except know for a fact that, given this guy is one of the top 5 at a firm literally everyone on here knows -- and he is considered to be a genious in his field -- we are all beyond fucked.
Haus, my suggestion: get over it, learn to lie. Just don't ever start believing your own lies.
Surviving in a f'ed up situation sometimes puts the positive aspect of retaining your head above those accrued from a moral fight against the system. Look in history to the example of Sophie Scholl, who (in my armchair quarterback opinion) gave her life in protest, and thereby removed herself from the scene for what could have been 70 years of highly successful subversion and rebellion.
Spitting into the wind isn't all that noble in the end.
This is essentially what I am doing.
"Yeup, MBS are a great and safe buy. Seriously. Its different this time."
I am documenting this via emails to myself. Noting what egregious bullshit it is, and how I am being forced to do this and by who. No one will hang this around my neck when this whole thing burns to the ground again.
But I guess I gotta keep doing this kinda crap until I can start making some decisions around here -- assuming we survive the next "correction" -- which I am not sure of.
Hang in there Haus, and give 'em what they want - you don't need to feel bad. It's all lies in the end anyway. Stay true in your heart, and live for the remaining righteous things in life. In the days of manufactured existence, righteousness is you producing 'unmanufactured' output. Always important to remember that job =/= work. Your work is what defines your contribution and connection to the universe, and it can be entirely within your head.
this is a hopefully less murderous version of the "plumbers" who "fixed leaks" (killed people) who knew too much about the kennedy president killing. some of those guys were later used in the nixon breakin set up.
This is one of the reasons I left the US. I kinda of look at the US right now as a Rome ca., 440 a.d./USSR 1987 analogue.
Still powerful and a bite, but about to get turned into a shithole via their own making.
Rome never came back, Russia is still miles away from where the USSR was -- I think the US will be lucky if it gets back to where it was ca., 1910 -- but given how fascism works, I am not holding my breath.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiGIrRZGVB0
Credit? We don’t need no stinking credit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqomZQMZQCQ
The first casualty of truth is your job.
Dry up that money supply folks, so the rich and use it to buy up all those "Fire Sale" prices in bankrupt cities & nations! Greece & Baltimore anyone?
http://galeinnes.blogspot.com/2015/05/engineered-dependencies.html
"Did A Tap On The Shoulder "Prevent" The US Economy From Sliding Into Recession?"
I suppose a tap on the shoulder is preferable to a double tap to the head.
I suspect that's on the Agenda..... (Cough Baltimore Cough)
check it out - thats not a hockey stick so much as the grim reapers scythe
.
Be sure you keep hard copies of your original report and the boss's email telling you how to change it. They may not help but you're hopelessly screwed without them.
That is an excellent suggestion. I'll start printing stuff of en masse.
Too bad I cannot share this stuff with anyone, but you guys can use your imagination. Its probably pretty close to accurate.
I am impressed your correctly named our economic system, fascism. Full state control that has some strictly limited free markets.
Lying is the order of the day. Be sure to compliment the emperor on his clothing while failing to buy from the same store.
The whole world goes down with this charade this time.
I just finished reading this:
https://homes.yahoo.com/photos/china-s-ghost-cities-a-fever-of-destruction-construction-and-abandonment-1430518770-slideshow/photos-a-fever-of-destruction-construction-and-abandoment-in-china-photo-1430505970387.html
China is doing this stuff on a ...Chinese scale. They really believed all that keynesian central planning crap. And what is the stuff you see in all those photos? Those are commodities directly or indirectly. Commodities which are misallocated and for which there is no organic demand.
True. We are all lying not only to one another but to ourselves in much of what we do. The problem is reconciling the way you want to be with whom you are. Its easier for some than for others.
I try and do excellent work, but its really difficult droning on about stuff I patently know to be false. The self-confirming bias is strong is many people at the top who survived the 2007/2008 shitshow. Their faith in central banks is massive, as, they were the ones primarily benefitting from their actions. People like me -- grunts in the organization who have been getting killed in electricity bills and property prices as these fuckers drive the market stratospheric purchasing whole blocks of apartments @ less than 3% to turn into rent properties and their MILF wifes sit at home voting for these faschist "green" parties demanding stupid electricity and gas taxes to reduce consumption -- all the while driving a Porsche Cayman Turbo S, which gets like 12 MPG downhill in neutral.
Fuck these people. Its a good thing my third language I am fluent in is bullshit -- if it wasn't I'd be sleeping under a bridge right now.
"12 MPG downhill in neutral" ... haha good one!
If your firm offers mutual funds maybe they have a bearish fund, where your input would be appreciated. Maybe you can ask for a transfer to that department. Just a thought.
They do, and I've thought about it.
I'd really love to start up my own REIT, as I've got some hyper-accurate models of growth areas in Germany (BER and FFM) -- and then for "fun" properties in Germany are horribly marketed.
The money making opportunities in these markets are truly without end -- it amazes me people keep sticking huge sums of money in equitiues when you could own real property with history.
Haus, you should be in full Cover Your Ass mode. Guys like you make excellent scapegoats when the poop hits the propeller.
Yeup, like I said documenting everything.
Last bit of advice: Find a job you can do without compromising yourself or your values.
I am not going to change jobs until the reset. I feel like all of my peers who are starting new jobs right now doing other stuff are setting themselves up for failure.
Haus, your posts are the best reading here.
Could you strike out on your own as a contrarian? I am sure your former employer would try to crush you but my bet is your clients do not want to be caught in the next lemming cliff run.
I believe you are seeing a microcosm of why virtually all companies/corporations fail over time. It is the enforcment of compliance and complicity with no innovation or in your case, truth and reality.
Part of me would like to strike out on my own, but not right before a major down turn. There are enough people in my organization who know where I stand. When SHTF financially, I can imagine they'll be calling me. It'll be a busy day, as I won't be able to watch the world come apart on ZeroHedge. :(
That being said -- I think enough people can see value in opposing view points on monetary issues so long as it is based in logic & reality. Those that refuse will get fed through the wood-chipper.
If... when... until... as long as... et al.
All are great qualifiers. You are smart enough that you shouldn't have to lie, even if your boss is a genius. The fact is that if you can't push product to customers... you won't have any intellectual or moral conflict to worry about. So write something that they will like and will continue to buy, and can read whatever the hell they want into because of their own confirmation biases, but still allows you sleep well at night. Who knows, perhaps one of your customers is genius, or has some basic common sense and reasoning ability and will be (financially) richer for reading it. Just don't stoop to baffling them with bullshit or going full-Gartman.
Yes, it's sub-optimal, but you can embrace the suck and successfully navigate the obstacles, or find someplace else to be faced with the exact same obstacles, unless you want to do something else.
TBF - My boss isn't a genius, most people just think he is. He got put into an early management role in 86/87 and has been "riding the waive" ever since. His gift is his staying power. When many of his peers were getting the "honey, either quit working so much or I'm leaving you" back in the mid to late 90s -- this guy went through like 3 marriages. I am faily confident I could get a homeless person to do his job, if and only if the homless person never put down the booze.
That should make it somewhat easier. People confuse perspective with reality. In the markets, the majority perspective largely determines the reality (within and of the market). Unfortunately, then people confuse the market with reality.
When we went to raise equity, or when we help clients arrange financing so we can sell them moar materials- we have to prepare financials projecting the next 5 years. I know two things about my own projections 1) they will be wrong and 2) Emerging market credit cycle timing is different and usually out of sync w/ G7 cycle timing, which is almost always out of sync with my Customers' needs. Regardless, TODAY is great! day to underwrite that 10M loan, and unless the sky literally falls, a strong plan and execution can be adapted as any "unforeseen" conditions warrant.
A wise man once told me perception is reality. I believe this to be true.
If the perception of reality every actually becomes reality we are all screwed.
Haus the suspense is killing me...i really would love to know this so called genius you work for, although i know you cant divulge the info. I am so tired of getting the roll of the eyeys when i tell friends and family of all the propoganda and BS in goverment data
"My boss"...says enough.
Learn to speak the truth. "According to CPI inflation is..." Just qualify everything so it is not your report doing the lying. All you do is report the lies.
Start a blog and publish your real report.
Get posted on ZH.
Share the knowledge with people who actually WANT the TRUTH.
Its what I am doing. I sent out the endited version of it for review again yesterday. We'll see how the changes are accepted.
One thing I won't take out is the section on central bank intervention. If I cannot illustrate to our clients who and why the single largest market influencer is Janet Yellen and not millions of individuals acting together creating a trend -- then I don't want to be anywhere near it.
Documenting via emails to yourself is bound to get you caught. If you work for a firm worth half a shit they are capturing that for later, if necessary. Save the emails to a thumb drive instead.
I've thought about this -- I'll just say its my way or organizing assignments.
I have Outlook arranged in a way to establish plausible deniability.
No, but breaking both knees of a worthless piece of shit has its rewards...
Is this a joke? If not, my 2cents:
Keep the original report. Record/note anything he says about it.
When the shit hits the shit, pull out your notes and burry that mothercuntfucker. That is if you still have your job. Then take his job.
Not a joke. 100% serious.
You and I were sharing a brain waive length on that one. See my response above.
Haus-Targaryen: Yu'all in good company.
"The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the greatest liars; the men [and women] they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth." H.L. Mencken (1880 – 1956)
whistleblowers and corporate truth sayers aren't held in high regard in the corporate world. Save your ammo just to protect yourself.
agree with corporate whore..... you'll never get the revenge or recognition, you'll just be labelled as a smartass....your boss's bosses (& higher) are probably of the same ilk.
you can't change the system, especially if the system (i.e. your place of employment) is part of the problem, which it sounds like it is.
either you decide you want to keep your job, keep churning out those friendly reports, wipe the cum off your chin and keep grinning.....and keep a low profile both before and after things cave in,
or..... you quit and find someplace to work where you won't feel misused. i'm not advocating either...the latter might make you feel better, but might also have decidedly difficult tradeoffs (location, salary, etc). it depends on a zillion intangibles. you'll have to dig deep into your soul to determine where your threshold of abuse lies.
Happened to me once. The original boss's note kept me out of prison. Hubris will undo him.
If your name's gonna be on it, think about this;
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article19954404.html
Yeah I know. With good enough documentation, I'll be okay.
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." - Edmund Burke.
If you are wilfully negligent then you are complicit in the crime. As reasonable, responsible human beings we are all duty-bound and obligated to shine a light on unethical, amoral conduct. To stand up to tyranny and criminality.
I'm a professional engineer... meaning that if I lie in my work then I am negligent and highly vulnerable to criminal prosecution. And rightly so because people may be harmed otherwise.
What's more important to you... your integrity or a fist full of clown bucks?
Being right isn't always being clever... but wrong is wrong and you know it.
It is disappointing to see the advice metered out to you in this thread advising that you continue to be unscrupulous and continue to whore yourself to the devil.
You must make your bed and then you must lay in it. Your choices are yours alone.
I understand your point completely. It is credited, and the one I would love to do.
At the end of the day -- its a moral choice, and while I hate the fact that I have to whore myself sometimes to put a bow on dog shit -- its what I was hired to do.
I think I am going to try and start doing more tax work. Its a lot easier pointing out to these people how fucked the government is as opposed to how fucked they are. Too bad for them, they don't understand when the USSA goes down, so do they.
Oh well.
I enjoy my job most of the time, but still like this puts a damper on things.
Thanks for your mature response.
If we all did the right thing the world would be all the better for it. This may sound idealistic... but it's an immutable truth.
All the best dealing with your dilemma.
As for the boss at the end of your email... I hope the evil piece of shit dies prematurely and in some horrible, painful manner.
If he'd post a name that hope might have a better chance.
A real whore has more integrity. At least she is not ashamed of what she does; there is no pretense. I gave up Corp USA for these very reasons. I will not bow to the feet of Evil...
And guess his tribal affiliation.
quit and go independent. the lack of money is more than made up in freedom from loads and loads of bs from other people and you choose the people you want to work with.
having your fairytale bubble burst by reality is always a life changing moment. you either accept your slavery or decide to fight for your freedom.
i have been free for almost 40 years now(if you don't count wives). and i managed to accumulate a nice nest egg all without qualifying for ss bennefits.
I am stacking like a motherfucker right now to do exactly that. Right now my stack isn't enough to do much of anything with. I could probably get myself a used VW CC -- but thats about it.
However, after we have one bank failure somewhere in the West that is material, and too large for the state backed insurance company to deal with it -- demand for AG and AU will skyrocket & I'll swap this into RE.
I want to use the knowledge I have to make me rich, not other people. Starting right now -- I tihnk is suicidal. I expect to be laid-off within the next few years, so I am doing what I can while I can, and attempt to get on my own in the bottom of the next crash.
You're on target
Don't know if you still have a job for a couple more years though
I've given it all I got this Spring and made most I could. It's already slowed down to less than a trickle which is atypical for the season. I knew it was coming though.
Q2 is going to be a desaster and barring any QE4, the following quarters will be a crap shoot for the economy.
You know its bad when the Fed & IMF are having to re-write their forecasts because winter is cold. I am expecting this Spring/Summer to be the season of full retard "consumer spending has stopped because its so nice outside no one is shopping."
I think they'll bring out QE4 only when it is absolutely necessary. Should Greece leave, or we have a COMEX default, or shit, even if the Chinese depeg -- you'll see QE4 quickly.
I have no doubt the numbers will go higher while purchasing power and quality of life plummit. 2015 really is the year.
re-read besnook's comments. going independent is indeed a breath of fresh air. i did so seven years ago after a huge amount of agony, and immediately wished i had done it ten years earlier. far more freedom, far less bullshit, and about twice the income. it also made my wife and i more transportable -- we wanted to move back west, but now didn't have to find two specialized jobs in the same town...only one. i've never regretted it. i've kept several long-standing clients (including my last employer) and get to work on their most interesting stuff without having to take part in their internal politics. it really is the best of all worlds. caveats: i'm in the sciences, not sure how it works in other fields.....and you fritter away your margin very quickly if you aren't willing to do all the dirty work yourself (accounting, tech work, etc). works best if you really run it as a one-person company.
the one caveat, at least for me, is the longer you are independent and the older you get as a function of mindset the less bullshit you are willing to suffer from anyone. it is probably because i have to deal with salesmen of some sort. i really enjoy calling kids on their bullshit(they think they are quicker than the old man. lol). the parlance between cagey old timers is the best, on the other hand. what mfers we are. lol.
besnook - you got my upvote. We live in a world of institutionalization. Very, very few people have been self employed their entire lives. Most are institutionalized for life : from school to either governments or corporations. Imo, one has almost zero capability of critical thinking after a certain amount of time spent within institutions.
It comes from your family to a degree, as well. I grew up on stories of the Great Depression from my grandfather. It was some serious stuff back then and what people did to survive pre-welfare state was amazing. So, you grow up with a "good employee" kind of outlook and being thankful for any job or income.
It's actually not all bad and there is honor in it. However, the honor may not be matched by an employer.
I now think the only way to go in life is being independent and/or the employer. I think we would all be much better off if we were all 1099 contract employees. I think businesses would be better off except for the fact that a very different type of person would probably be in charge.
I cannot do this life over but I am going to make the best of it, even as most everything we know probably collapses economically.
Excellent plans. I have a pretty good end goal and strategy, but I need a bit more time to stack.
I want to start my own REIT via conversion from a GmbH after the collapse. Step into a market that has gotten crushed with liquidity and high demand, and the first round of properties finance 100% with equity, and once I've established myself as "credible" with my own money, branch out into other peoples and then leverage that.
My goal is to use other perople's investments into RE and invest heavily around "anchor properties." While this is an old strategy, no one uses it in highly concentrated areas.
Anyways, I could write on ad infinium about this. I have my plan. The hardest part is going from where I am to the first million. Thereafter, its a "cake walk" if I don'T corrupt myself.
Haus, if you decide to come back to the states, you can always park a travel trailer on my property for a few months until you get on your feet. Rent free.
Thanks. I appreciate the offer.
My place is here now. Its my home. I am looking for property in the middle of no-wheres-land Germany such as this;
http://www.immobilienscout24.de/expose/76932055?referrer=RESULT_LIST_MAP...
5 bedroom house on 4 acres with 2 barns, 2 tool sheds, a garage and a mother-in-law house which was renovated within the past decade.
Not bad. You could stay in the mother-in-law house rent free.
Nah...I'm all set here..besides I wouldn't want to go back to Europe. Europe is a strategically poor place to live. LOL (I played too much Risk)
"go back to"
Sounds like there is a story there.
Europe is changing and it will always remain the same. That being said -- I would venture to say middle of nowhere land Germany would be a good gig for the end of the financial world.
Not much of a story. Lived in Spain (nice). Spent a lot of time with relatives in France (grandparents, uncles, aunts, cousins). I'm pretty much a kraut by ancestry (Uhlmann..not my name though. It's kraut too though, lol)
Europa is beautiful, don't get me wrong. I just prefer the lesser of two police states right now (I like my shooting utensils too much). Best part is, I live in a desert, not many people will be rushing in my direction if and when SHTF.
Haus- is there such a thing as middle of nowhere Germany? I remember taking the train from Dresden to Frankfurt, and while I saw plenty of really nice country side, nothing seemed that remote.
Is the price on that home you linked to 49k euros? That seems cheap. How does owning land and homes in Germany work? Once paid for are there on going fees like property taxes? I used to look at properties online in Sweden just for the fun of it, but there is seemed relatively cheap to buy something, but the monthly ongoing costs were horrendous.
In Germany you have a property transfer tax -- which is based on your purchase price, or accessed value, whichever is lower. Then thereafter you have yearly property taxes like in the US, but they are cheaper than in the US as they derive their prices from historical rates. For the former DDR -- its 1934 prices.
Good choice. One of the best countries in the world.
HT - what are the laws like there in Germany for having a "hobby farm" or homestead? Here in the US, depending on where one lives, there are many zoning restrictions on what a person can and cannot have. We have HOA's - home owner assocations that regulate everything it seems. So even having gardens is outlawed. So one really needs to get out of any urban area to have the chance to grow and raise food - but then of course, if you are that far out, there are no jobs.... So just curious what the situation is like in Germany. Thanks.
In the middle of no-where like my example, no HOAs or the like, and zoning is pretty non-existant.
$50k is pretty normal for properties in this part of Germany. Its beautiful there -- just in the middle of no where.
hl mencken-a successful man does what he wants when he wants to do it.
that has been my driving force. i went from a suit to a taxicab(all cash at the time). i saved enough to start buying and selling stuff from cars to real estate and investing in the markets. eventually i was free to just buy and sell stuff. the key has been just a coupla big scores that really set me free. one was in the market(first chrysler bailout, 3 to 50) and the other was in real estate( a flip worth 100 grand in a coupla months). in my day, the first 100 grand was the key to real freedom. it may be 250 grand today(low interest rates, beat real estate market and a scary stock market).
just do it. i caught hell for jumping in the cab but now everyone realizes i have been free all my life and have money to boot. they are now jealous.
It would be Uber or Lyft today, right?
Bravo to you besnook.
I am becoming a fan of Mencken. He seems to hit the nail on the head most every time.
if the emperor wants no clothes who am i to deny such a request?
If you are a Goy, get a good tribe lawyer on retainer-now.
Otherwise, relax, you're covered.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission.
Haus-Targaryen, "On an aside".
Bro seriously. Add your ZH "Biography" as a forward to all of your work. That'll explain you to these cocksucking dreamers.
"It is a foregone conclusion the current monetary system is running on borrowed time. It will collapse, slowly at first, and then quite quickly thereafter. This is not scary, as those who are in "the know" can prepare for it, and make a ton of "money" when it does collapse based off of everyone else's stupidity. What is to follow is what scares me. "
They may even put you and a few like minded folks in a broom closet and tell you to swim or sink. GO! Mr. Phelps.
Grow some balls, Haus.
You have ony one life, don't whore yourself.
'He' must be a strong TTIP believer. And one of the first that will jump when the time comes.
'He' has 2 choices: jump, or get pushed.
He's got a bullseye on his back in some necks of the woods..
I've got a German Shepherd with more brains and ethics than that loser boss of yours...
<<Essentially he wants to lie through my teeth to these people.>>
Haus, this is your field and only you can reckon how long you can stick with it. I am in complete sympathy with your plight. I had a (relatively) good job until recently, and I had some ethical decisions to make in it. I think this is going to be the case more and more, with those who are still fortunate enough to have 'good' jobs. I chose my ethics, and as a result my job was taken from me; but I knew that would probably be the price. I also knew (and had let them know) that I was going to be leaving soon anyway, so it was just a bit earlier than planned. I did get some extra money from that (since it was obviously not justified) and so it was not a complete loss. However, it was a price that I had to decide to pay. Given who I am, I had no real choice. I knew that they had 're-designed' my job, and they would do it again since now they needed me to do something different, not what I had signed up for or was trained to do.
That created a lot of lifestyle hardship for me and my family, even though it was foreseen and even though I had told my family this would be the likely price. Times have been very hard for all of us. BUT, to this day I have not once regretted my decision, and being who I am I would do the same again. I can look at my face in the mirror without shame. My family and I have had to pull together thru it, and we still are. But nobody blames me; I am very fortunate in my family. The price we have paid in impoverishment, was in large part due to my being who I am, but not one of them has blamed me for that even though they all certainly could.
I will make a prediction in your case, and I hope it sounds as well-meant toward you as I intend. Your job used to be to analyse truthfully; now your job description has changed, and it includes massaging, propagandising, and lying. Because your name is still on the reports, people will continue to trust you and rely on that information with no way to know that it is not as sound as it was before. You will need to decide to what degree you can accept this and perform it well, and my prediction is that the cognitive dissonance for you is going to grow and grow until it becomes difficult to do the job you once enjoyed. (I loved my job, which was the same career -- although not at the same place -- since 1989.) At some point soon, you are either going to leave of your own accord, or you will be shown the door; and that point is largely out of your hands. Just as you are having to measure your loyalty vs. your integrity, so your boss will, too. I hate to say this but it's what I think is likely to happen. I'm sorry if that sounds harsh or negative, since I don't mean it that way. Maybe I am projecting.
You were clear and honest enough to speak on this thread. (FWIW, yours are one of the comments I always seek out and learn from on these threads.) Since you did, I'll give my unsolicited advice: start planning your exit NOW, and try to get as fast as you can into a position where you can survive if you wind up losing that job earlier than you intend. Help your dependents to be psychologically prepared for this, because it may be out of your hands. You are already planning your departure date of course, planning to leave at the best time for you. But you may wind up leaving AHEAD of that point, so perhaps start warning your family of what is going on, and plan for survival in case it does. Your story has a little bit in common with what happened to me, and my departure point turned out to be out of my control (between my boss's decisions and my conscience). I was glad that I had warned people and made survival contingency plans. My suggestion is not to take it for granted that your departure time will continue to be under your own control.
Your comments on this blog are always valuable and thought out. I'm glad so many here are supportive of you in your position. I hope I can add my support too, and just say that you are not by any means alone in finding that holding onto a 'good paying' job suddenly turns into a real conscience and ethics problem. I fear that the number of people with such jobs is beginning to shrink rapidly, and amongst those, this dilemma is going to affect them in growing numbers, right up until the collapse itself. Such jobs are becoming less about performance, and more about loyalty; and this is the real problem now.
The best of luck to you, and I wish you much personal strength and the support of those around you.
The question is: does he have an inside track on if and when they will be contracting/expanding debt. Beause, as far as asset prices are concerned, that's all thtat really matters.
HT, if you ever find yourself fighting with your conscience over this situation, just remember Ann Barnhardt now lives in a van down by the river.
I concur.
Have to be able to justify their June. 5% surprise rate hike.
The US is still in a recession. The rest of the world is even worse.
Think Canada is weathering the oil crash just fine? Not at all, the BS is just as thick up here as it is in the US. But here's an article i found buried as well as they could bury it.
Commercial vacancy rates in Western Canada at 2 decade highs.
http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN0NM47Q20150501
It's so bad in Calgary, you can get tier 1 space for the cost of utilities only.
Warren Buffett's 50th anniversary Berkshire Hathaway meeting is going on this weekend. Buffett and his Nazi associate Charges Munger have profited mightily by their unlimited access to credit. Buffet and his silent Berkshire partners own the Federal government in much the same way that Al Capone and his Mafia associates owned Chicago. While the Obama strong arm boys erase bad numbers on the economy, Buffett's rail cars containing Bakken oil continue to explode in flames and Buffett continues to buy off Congress. As shown in his mobile home business, which profits from the predatory lending practices it uses to sell shoddy mobile homes to poor people.
---
April 11, 2014: Buffett, the world's third-richest man, is by far the biggest operator in the mobile home industry. His Clayton Homes company sells more mobile homes, also known as "manufactured housing," than any other company. The two largest mobile home lenders are both Buffett companies -- Vanderbilt Mortgage and 21st Mortgage and Finance.
The industry targets the poor. More than 84 percent of the industry's customers earn less than the median household income.
The Buffett enterprises have faced allegations of predatory lending and collection practices, most recently detailed this month in an investigation by the Seattle Times and the Center for Public Integrity. Nevertheless, Buffett's empire has had great success pressuring Congress to let it charge very high interest rates on mobile home loans while still qualifying for government protections from predatory lending lawsuits.
The GOP bill that passed on Tuesday would allow companies to charge very high interest rates on mobile home loans -- up to about 14 percent in the current market -- while still getting the benefit of the doubt in court for predatory lending cases. High-interest borrowers would lose key consumer protections, like mandatory housing counseling, and be exposed to a host of other predatory lending terms, including penalties that prevent homeowners from refinancing into less expensive loans. The bill also would allow mobile home salespeople to receive kickbacks for steering customers into high-cost loans.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/14/manufactured-housing-republican...
Buffett's just an agent (a front) for a serious member of The Great Red Dragon (Serpent, "Snakes In Suits), probably one of the non-public powers behind Goldman-Sachs, where he originally worked. That's why he can't give more inheritance to his family, it's not his to give. The "aw shucks I'm just a country boy" works on Wall Street. Used it myself back in the 70s, but in the computer field, not finance.
and remember boys and girls, a smile is just a frown turned upside down.
"ObamaCare";
It was supposd to have recollateralized the derivative house of cards by hustling another 30 million paying bodies into the bankers service-but that hasn't materialized. "can't get blood from a stone" There are good reasons 30 million people were uinsured. Waving a wand can't change that. Nor does Congressional or Presidential edict.
Obamacare's increased costs have sucked out discretionary spending from all corners of the service economy, in the process hollowing out previously "good" collateral.
Its complete repeal by MN tonight would lessen the October Crash on the horizon triggered by lack of discretionary spending income; it would also bolster some of the collateral dykes a bit.
But absent a productive economy since about 2006, the collateral shortage on the horizon is a tsunami at this point.
The banks, fueled by government Constitutionally unrestrained, have managed to crap the world.
I happen to work in a medical field. I can tell you that Obamacare is a slow-motion economic train wreck you will watch in real time. It is going to show what happens when people who know virtually nothing about an industry take control for political purposes and to punish.
I do not have the energy to elucidate every negative aspect, nor do I think I know all of them. However, just envision the fact that people have less than half the coverage at twice the price and no extra healthcare is actually being delivered anywhere, even at twice the price (insurance). It is a first rate economic drag and only the poor are laughing all the way to the doctor's office.
My suspicion is that only the insurance companies are profiting, although I admit I am not in that part of healthcare. My educated guess is that they have priced in a risk for all those theoretically uninsured and preexisting conditions and the costs have not materialized while the premiums have. So, they have higher prices for a risk that never turned into an actual outlay. The 30 million uninsured were not untreated medically. They were just uninsured. So, no extra care is actually going out.
Watch for very large jumps in CEO pay and those close to them. By law they supposedly have to spend about 80% on healthcare but my guess is they will turn it into overhead or faux costs to hide the extra money.
Large campaign donations should follow that. Watch for revisions on those expenditure rules if I am right.
Bull. Things look rosy or your kids get killed, badly.
There will be no truth. AAPL must be a trillion dollar company or else.
Anyone that threatens the Tribe's gravy train will be demolished.
We can't handle the truth (paraphrased)
Cause the truth often accompanies the burden of responsibility.
all i know is that at my one job we have incredible amounts of companies that delay, delay, delay, oh we lost your invoice, oh the guy who signs the checks isn't in, oh we mailed that three times and still got lost in the mail.
something isn't right.
liquidity squeeze
Captain Crunch -> Captain Trips
I had the exact opposite thing happen last quarter, I had checks showing up before I even had the orders.
However, there was a commonality to that, which is every one of those events was from a TBTF bank. I think they are either clearing out their books ahead of the crash, or inflating their spending to justify something larger later.
you know something - Canada is fucked too.
How Air Canada broke the law, laid off thousands of workers, and outsourced operations to Israeli military drone maker
http://thinkpol.ca/2015/03/09/how-air-canada-broke-the-law-and-outsource...
Who's the head of Air Canada?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calin_Rovinescu
C?lin Rovinescu (born 1955 in Bucharest) is the current President and Chief Executive Officer of Air Canada, Canada’s largest domestic and international airline. He has been leading the company since April 1, 2009.
Born in Romania into a Jewish family, Rovinescu fled the country with his parents and sister aged 6.[1] In 1980, Rovinescu graduated from the University of Ottawa where he received his LL.B. In 1978, he graduated from the University of Montreal where he received LL.L. In 1974, he received his D.E.C. from McGill University.[2]
Before joining Air Canada, Rovinescu was the Managing Partner of Montreal law firm, Stikeman Elliott, for over 20 years. He practiced in the areas of corporate finance and mergers and acquisitions, and he is a member of the Quebec and Ontario Bar Associations.[3]
Between China and Latin America, and, to be sure, Israel - how long can the US keep losing jobs all while letting in millions of unskilled spanish speakers and tens of thousands of Indians on work visa?
http://www.wrmea.org/1993-september-october/the-u.s.-israel-free-trade-a...
http://www.irmep.org/fischer_aipac.htm
With the TPP, things really might collapse in a period of months - without reading through the whole thing tough to know, but the TPP, and the atlantic equivalent, are, by orders of magnitude, worse than NAFTA was.
TTP is a nafta on steroids
The absolute power to lie, whatever it takes, by this government and its handlers makes it difficult to see anyway out of the bind. It also means that we can also conclude that there is no limit to what will be done to maintain that power.
Thought that was kind of the point in Kiki's evil voodoo dollhouse of make believe where dolls don't talk back as living dead! Best Chester wins and there is to no extent they of all of them, lover pâténted and the passion assassins won't go to and there is no place to escape as to why they had to move into ur bedroom so many decades ago for Armageddon only from my bedsheets!
At least the numbers don't lie even when forced to lie! The more obvious the BETTER!
Yea even more blatant than if not Fixed by the ministry of truth of which I'm sure Kiki heads up! ~ so her! And this too trying to break math which stands behind my bets as she sees it the best cheater wins.
Plus on the other side they will need to bust the peeps who had to change their numbers for lying to us under their command!
They do it to the ratings agencies too... cause they can't get enough of their slush fund fun rolling in monopoly $ on the good faith and credit of the American peeps in which they intend to bankrupt with 300% debt to GDP on high priced bullshit pretending to be everyone!
All these Interventions merely support the thesis that TPTB are set on having a CONTROLLED Schedule for the Monetary Reset.
Until then, they all circle the tidy bowl in unison, like synchronized swimmers.
Who doesn't love an apt Olympic Sports metaphor? The Brazilians have got some good ones too! Like: "Our Government loves us like a discus to a baby's head!" or, "FIFA is to our welfare as the boa constrictor is to the neck of the flamingo!" Obrigado.
black is white, white is black, black is white ....................................
Fair enough. Just don't come crying to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUbhmtaXZRM
The solution to negative metrics - changing the reporting or creating new metrics eventually means a loss of credibility in everything you see or hear or read
that is the problem now with the cops - no one believes the stories and when someone repeats the false mime they become incredible as well - Freddie hit his head in the truck and his head fell off his spine - i get it!
For example few believe obama on anything - most people i know when he appears on the TV they put the sound on mute until he is offf the screen
He is a metaphor for the entire administration, Federal Reserve, Candidates for Office, CNBC finance reports, etc, etc
when people dont believe - eventually they dont spend - they dont take risks
People are pulling back massively except real estate - due to low interest rates - No Confidence Vote is everywhere
Just mute? That POS has stopped me from ever watching main stream TeeVee again. The only thing I watch now are the oldie channels that play only reruns and movies. Even then, some of the movies were thinly veiled propaganda, like Diamond Head(1963), starring Charlton Heston. Who knew?! He was in one, too.
Plus these rigging of numbers so blatantly is actually more of a reason to be afraid very afraid of what isn't allowed to be seen from the windows of lies out Kiki's evil voodoo dolhouse of pretend.
Best cheater doesn't always win.
More obvious the better!
Jesus this is serious Ministry of Truth shit.
Behind these numbers is some analyst doing his job, and I can only imagine the meeting after the phone call from the Fed where his boss tells him the numbers must be changed. That had to be a serious red-pill moment for that person, if nothing else.
His only connection to the revised numbers was to see that his name was still published at the top of the freshly-revised page.
That way he can be blamed, no matter how it turns out.
Simple Supervisor 101 skills.
Supervisor 101: Take credit. Share blame.
I pity all these people that use "data" like this for economic modelling.
95 % of these fools in the investment industry are " quant driven"
The USA serfs have apparently reached their bankster debt serfdom capacity.
Goldman will wipe 10k off your balance if you sell them a kidney.
Wow. Just fucking wow.
Doesn't anyone remember being admonished as a child (pre-1970's...), the consequences of 'lying'...? Good parents were trying to keep a (very) bad habit from forming and potentially becoming a 'feature' of the child's makeup/character. How is such a simple and true concept any different from what we see here? Once Lying becomes habit, anything is possible (in the wrong direction), and the ends know no bounds.
They justify the lies to "protect the people" or the "governments best interest"..
However to lie, cheat and steal from the people you are suppose to be representing is insidious. And to do that to enable further lies to cheat and steal more is pure treason.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DRTSCLCC
There are school teachers going to jail for changing their student's answer sheets to be more consistent with the desired results. And that's just a stupid test. How is this any different? Seems a bit more egregious.
They don't do it for the students, they do it for the bonus they get for the student grades. I have a friend that's a teacher at a one percenters public school and discussed it with him. At parent teachers night many of the parents drop in with the family lawyer who "Just happened to be with them socially and was interested in what transpired". If I was that teacher I'd have a small device very softly playing "Die Fahnehoch" and "Badanvillor Marsch" while meeting with parents.
That is exactly what I predicted.
Suppliers denying credit to clients.
Thank QE for that
This is Supply Strike
Goldman Sachs "narrative"...
Credit standards tightened sharply during the Great Recession and have gradually eased over the past few years. However, a recent sharp deterioration in the NACM Credit Managers’ Index—a series which has typically not generated much market interest—has prompted questions about whether credit standards are tightening anew.
The NACM index captures terms of trade credit extended to businesses by suppliers. As such, it does not reflect directly on credit standards imposed by commercial banks on C&I, CRE, mortgage, or consumer loans. The recent downturn in the index appears to be partly related to more cautious credit extension from suppliers to smaller energy sector firms. Even so, the extent of the recent weakness is surprising
The recent spate of activities which are driving everyone into a cash economy is the financial equivalent of the central banks poisoning themselves.
Everybody better have a life jacket and a crash helmet, beacause we are way beyond seatbelt time.
What would we do without Jews?
Hey now,
Your entire life apparently revolves around them. If they were no longer around, you would simply go poof as a physical or mental construct.
True, an empty babbling husk may live out its existence in some people warehouse for a while, which is not much different from your current state of lucidity-- or it may simply be broken up for spare parts.
Me, I can spend entire months at a time without running across or thinking about Jews of any sort in any way-- except of course for the apparently inescapable references from stressed urbanite nazi ZHers who have nothing else going on in their life other than a determination to blame others for their own miserable existence.
Tarabel-Extremely well written and amusing as well. Ha,ha
Welcome to Fantasy Island.
Da plane! Da plane!
Oh just print moar debt all will be forgiven by god.
Quick question, are any of you trading currencies... Spot or futs? I have been trading the fits for a handful of years & luckily I had been very rarely participating in the Swissy in light of that unpegging in Jan. Had I been holding short I would've lost everything, including the ability to continue trading.
Lately I have been focusing only on the euro and have been in positions for hours rather than minutes, a much more patient and sometimes painful approach. In light of everything, I have been thinking that I should stop staying in so long & instead putting on heavier positions for the quick punches. Has anybody changed their trading habits lately? I just keep thinking obout the swissy & it scares me to death.
Didn't have the FED software connected soon enough to produce the first graphs, that's all. It's ok now.
Is there a super computer somewhere that can scan the 10q's for Q1 2015 and calculate the shift in Accounts Receivables and Account Payables? Isn't this what we're talking about? With inventories rising, this is usually where this part of the credit cycle we're talking about kicks in. Terms net 30, net 90, etc. I give you product that you hold in inventory and you pay me back as inventory becomes stock & working capital arrives. With interest rates near zero, it's either no longer worth it for Company A to forgo the "opportunity cost" or the risk/return ratio, or both.
" In sum, like many such indicators this survey probably is useful for members of the narrow industry it covers. However, there is a good reason why macroeconomists like us had never heard of the survey".
Just wondering....
Is this one of the brilliant 'macro economists' who nailed the GDP correctly?
Prevent recession by eliminating all taxes and printing money to fund the government. :)
My bullshit meter is smoking.
Tyler, this is very important follow-up info, to my mind even more important than the original. (And I thought the original info was one of the most alarming markers I've seen this year. Saved it and pondered it again and again thru the last month.)
Something big's coming down fast. TPTB are at the point that they can't seem to allow even one un-massaged (i.e., true) data point out to the public. Their credibility is gone, worldwide, and for the only audience they have left (the domestic one), they have to revise and massage every single item now. The information control is at a manic pitch. How many people even noticed or registered what the original chart meant? How many do they really think are going to be convinced by this revision?
They are not doing this to save their credibility. They're doing this as a CYA for every rosy report published this quarter by financial advice firms; not b/c they expect anyone to believe them. It's not about credibility, but about liability. These revisions are a kind of data 'bail-out' for their financial advice cronies, so that they cannot be blamed when the fallout hits, for publishing bad advice. (If it's based on bad data, then they can't be blamed and sued.)
As they say, it's not the crime that gives the game away; it's the cover-up. It wasn't so much the original data point (which was bad enough), but this cover-up that is even more alarming. Many thanks for the follow-up.
You're assuming any of these numbers are facts.
This was your first mistake.
not
It was a tap on the "print" key.