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Presented with little comment other than to say that the top is now officially in for Chinese stocks...
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Sadly, you'll still have 99% of the new "traders" in that market that would buy the top with every chance they can get.
Can Barron's put the Obama administration on the cover?
Good timing for a market top; right before the start of World War III between the US and Russia:
Cold War v2.0: NATO Establishes Direct Hotline to Russian Defense Ministry
It's a hot war being fought with EMF, HAARP & stealth nukular via power plants.
The sovereigns are on the same page.
The war is against humanity.
The fossil record is very clear on humanity booming and busting. So, what you are saying is same as it ever was...
How insightful, not.
coming bubble in food prices?
PBOC will probably let the Chinese stock market go higher so that they can bring down housing a bit and reign in jobs without too much economic chaos
My take on it is that the stock bubble is not replacing the housing bubble but is instead being used to MAINTAIN the housing bubble-- which in turn is being further leveraged so far as possible to put more money into the markets.
Kind of like Bill and Hillary-- Two bubbles for the price of one.
Eventually, some third bubble will be needed to keep the first two alive. Call it the Chelsea bubble.
At some point, everything will be bubbled up and there will be nothing left to re-hypothecate.
yeah true i mean i think it can do both... booming stocks will let the PBOC try bring down or settle housing but all the extra liquidity (and capital) from stocks will also help provide a sort of bottom so that the PBOC cannot bring it down too much ... if it comes down too much, people will just see it as a buying opportunity -- stocks are still seen as rather opportunistic and risky in China, and I think the leash is short. most people i know are looking for any and all excuses to 'get out' of stocks because the general stereotype in china is still that stocks = gambling, housing = investment. i know a lot of 'smart money' in china that still won't even touch stocks because even if factory business has slowed and housing is down, they still want to own something they can touch, put workers in, makes something, live in.
that's why I think there is a lot of potential rally left in the Chinese stock market... there is still so much money on the sideslines yet
heck, Warren Buffet just said at the BK even that he thinks it has THREE years left (he's half senile but three, rather than one, is still quite the forecast)
and sure the SSE looks overvalued but technically it's cheap from the 2009 lows vs the SP500
not based on technical valuations or P/E (which mean jack shit with Chinese accounting anyhow)... but if you look at how much the SP500 has rallied since April 2009? SSE hasn't even come CLOSE to rallying the same amount
SSE is basically where the SP500 was in probably 2011, that first August where the market crashed at the 'debt ceiling' drama... everything went down 10-15% after the first 2009-2011 rally.. BAC hit 4.96 or whatever LOL
that is basically where SSE right now in terms of % increases from the 2009 lows
so relative to the SP500, the SSE really isn't anywhere close to be fully recovered... overvalued or not... it's gone up far far less than US equities
You make a good point regarding the desire of ordinary people to control tangible assets.
Upon reflection, I think it somewhat dovetails with mine about the stock and RE bubbles being mutually-encouraging rather than rivals.
Yet I think it also bodes ill for the stock market overall. Since the ordinary investors prefer their RE holdings, they will have no hesitation as to which one of them to throw out of the lifeboat if a storm blows in.
for sure and i'm sure it will come down.. it's not reaching a new norm per se, it'll do its run up and then come back to reality
but in the mean time, it's going to make a lot of new winners and likely free up a lot of capital
http://investinginchinesestocks.blogspot.ca/
Zero Hedge just loooooves to cite this blog for bad news but conveniently forgets it whenever it's positive
even Druckenmiller usually rather bearish or at least expects that after the stock rally, even if it comes down, economic recover will follow (it's near the top headline of the blog)
even ZR referenced tho this time
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-15/stanley-druckenmiller-bullish-c...
barely got any traction here lol
I'll thank you for the compliment, even if it's from an angry school yard ad hom vagenius.
Fuck it. It hasn't topped out yet. Levverr up and make another quick 20%.
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... http://goo.gl/e4mV9C
Chinese banks are so undercapitalized and overextended it's insane.
Sure, but everyone is in on the scam and won't say shit. Enlighten us, who on the planet is going to make that margin call and call the Chinese out? Last time I checked they hold a lot of America paper...
tick tock motherfuckers...
An undercapitalized bank does not need a "margin call" to go tits up. The Chinese government holding US Treasuries has absolutely nothing to do with my post. Have seriously no fucking idea what you are trying to express.
The point being that it's ALL bullshit , pretty clear that went right over your head, although not very surprising. Good luck with all those paper promises (chinese or otherwise).
.
Chinese banks are actually a lot more stable than anything in the US. The "bad loans" that everyone cries about are pirmarily local government debts which in all reality need and should be shifted to the central government as most of the projects that incurred them were ordered by the central government in the first place with the burden placed on local government to make it happen.
Once that is done, the economy stops looking so "scary". Furthermore, most of that "debt" is already owned by the government, so it's just internal and can be wiped out without any "victims".
This post is complete nonsense. Go look at the largest banks in China, go look at TCE/TA hovering at 5% and less while in US that's gnerally 8.5% minimum with the most of the larger ones inching towards 9%. Go look at loans/deposits at US banks vs. Chinese ones, ALL/NPL coverage, provisioning, ad infinitum. You clearly do not understand banks at all. Not trying to argue, but if you haven't looked at these it's better to save yourself the embarassment.
Banks have not been banks for quite some time asshat. Now that money is created out of thin fucking air (not loaned from savings or real productive capital) with absolutely no real regard for collateral or reality, fuck em. Bankers and financiers are now obsolete useless fucking middlemen. Kill every last one and use their bodies for fertillizer, at least the fucking people paying for the bailouts with their labor will get something back you stupid fuck.
Your comment addressed nothing I said like every other post you have. Maybe smoke some pot and calm down, then you can go get a real job and move out of mom's basement.
The fact that you don't have an intelligent response says it all. Try addressing just one point dipshit, if you can.
Money coming out of thin air does not mean that banks do not face writedowns, workout charges, increased provisioning, and a multitude of other issues when asset quality goes to shit. The low TCE/TA levels at Chinese banks mean that loan marks will impair an equity buffer that is already extremely thin. The expansion of credit does not make up for capital deficiencies, genius.
Bullshit. Who gets to create that money from thin air asshole? Out here in the real world, for those of us with the skill and ability to actually engineer and build real shit, why can't we create our own paper/collateral. Fine, we will start creating our own credits out of thin air, fuck your paper. This is the endgame and exactly what China and others are doing. Good luck with all your SNAP babies, because eventually even the farmers are going to tell you to fuck right off. Idiot.
"Banks have not been banks for quite some time asshat. Now that money is created out of thin fucking air (not loaned from savings or real productive capital) with absolutely no real regard for collateral or reality, fuck em. "
That was your reply when I disucssed undercapitalized banks. I went on to explain to you how this is completely irrelevant and got the above reply from you, which has nothing to do with anything I've said. I support total capitalism, including a free market in currency. It's very obvious you're embarassed and do not understand basic accounting and finance - your comments, if not from a 12 year old, are sad. "build real shit" - great, glad you're good with your hands because your brain isn't gonna get you a job.
Our brains work just fine, so do all the computers and robots that replace idiots like you.
Clearly you are yet another useless paper-pusher, I can see why you are scared. Thanks for confirming.
Sure, any day now robots will start replacing equity research analysts. I wake up in cold sweat every night thinking of it. We've gone from bank capital to liquidity to a bunch of stuff you randomly threw in cause you can't understand basic accounting to robots. No way you have ADHD. your job as a cashier at Denny's is far safer from robots; you have me beat what can I say. And reading over your comments here just confirms what a genius you are and how you masterfully understand each subject you post on.
Nor does it make up for reduced collateral. The more you print (digitally create), the less available collateral exists, all else equal. Unabated created money chases assets for a sotre of value. But, the trouble is there is only so much collateral available. A house, is still just a house. Eventually its seccurity value crashes because it is an unproductive asset. Its real colateral value has a ceiling regardless of how much money is minted. Like James Grant said back in 2013 - "The FED can change what things look like, but, the FED can never change what thngs are." LOP, I think is arguing that at the end of the day, you can't have your cake and eat it too. There is no free lunch. Sooner or later some form of reconciliation occurs. And the Chinese are no more immune to that process than anybody else.
Asshat & dipshit...
The hallmark of an intellectual Leviathan.
Got your attention didn't it? LOL!!!
in 1959 mao purposely starved about 45 million people quite in a similar fashion to how it was done to that people group in part of ukraine in the twenties. not to mention the few times the british orchestrated it in india. china will accidently do it again.
You've called this guy an Asshat, Fucking Idiot and Dipshit over a comment string about the Chinese Stock Market. I guess because his opinion differs from yours???
What's your deal man?
Get a grip on yourself.
unbridled misdirected outrage.
when he figures out his "tick tock motherfuckers" is actually his personal hour glass with fate, we'll be witness to one enraged excuse for a human being.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JG1j68gbCs
Dutch boy is his hero so he's got that going for him.
+1 Someone who actually works in finance giving us an informed opinion. I could get used to that.
Bingo, now contrast that with the ongoing bailouts of private companies and private equitity in the U.S.
Looking more and more like we should have let all those motherfuckers fail in 2008/2009. Not one motherfucker in prison and not one structural reform has been made.
tick tock motherfuckers...
We should always let business fail, that's a market system. The banks would be more consolidated but would probably have many of the similar post-crisis operating metrics they currently have. And just think, if we didn't have the Fed/FDIC they would have never been anywhere close to failing.
"We should always let business fail, that's a market system." -- Yes, but the fact is, we didn't and are still giving bankers and financiers access to all the money they want for zero interest.
"Full faith and credit" as it were, to pretend that all those paper promises are not going to start seeking out real assets soon is idiotic.
You have the same fervent opposition to the automaker and GSE bailouts, too, right?
Yes.
your debt is someone else money, you can't just write off it without any consequence
I'd argue that it depends on whether or not that "money" was created out of thin fucking air. If the debt came from SAVINGS, you would be correct, but when is the last time that has happened? See the fucking problem yet?
your debt for the banks is the banks money. Banks are using any debt as collateral to print money as x100.
I dont see where i was wrong
So paper promises created out of thin air used as collateral? LOL!!! Good luck with that. Yes, all you have pointed out is that the world uses mark to fantasy accounting now. Who gets to create that collateral? I have a printer, I guess I can create as much collateral as I want to then as well. Okay fine, sounds good, I like your logic.
i didn't say it is good, it is how this fucking system is working. Banks think that you will pay your debt, so they can use your debt as their money or they can sell your debt. and you can't create as much as you want because of inflation. It is pretty simple upsidedown system.
And it's not my logic, it HOW THIS FUCKING SYSTEM is working.
IT is a debt based system, so system is using debt as a money. Dollar is debt note.
It is not so hard to understand it....
...lol!! Okay fine, how's that working for the vast majority so far? LOL, okay, thanks for the laugh. my point was that in 2008/2009, that debt note changed (again) rather significantly... (i.e. explaining the moves in China to basically move towards their own paper).
open your wallet and read -"This note is legal tender for all debts,public or private" on any dollar.
It is means that your government is taking credit from federal reserve and you can pay your debt to federal reserve via dollar.
And system is not working for people, but working for elites.
you miss the point. the pboc is a state bank not an independent bank. reserve holdings don't matter because capitalization doesn't matter. the only chinese money that matters is external. internal banking is a charade.
Not quite. When Steve Liesman says so, then, maybe...
There are chinese all over the world, they will decide when they have had enough, most don't give two shits about "markets". Demographics are what they are and the U.S. will be under new management soon. Interesting times. How many blacks in china anyway?
It's official. Boxing sucks. Captain obvious reporting.
:)
Where's Gartman?
Good let thoses nasy bastard feel the pain. And it is comming soon. I live in Asia and the bubble is ready to blow!
BTFTop !!!
HA! Yeah you see the funny thing is due to the depreciation of the dollar and the yuan via its currency peg (not to mention all currencies due to excessive currency printing via central bank bond purchasing programs) all stocks are just being kept inflated enough to keep the illusion of prosperiety.
Long live the Matrix
:)
it's your best work
He's got a lot of good ones! I'm not much of a favorite picker.
Larry moe and curly really w the look so on their faces and their clothes ~ that one couldn't have been done any better!
But he's got a lot of good stuff!
There goes UCLAs budget for next year.
Oh no up mean the kids won't have to pay all that money to protest in a manner which destroys capitalism so that kids have to stay in school at predatory loan rates given to them by the government for a Phd as gov protest puppets of destruction!
This changes little, if you're well diversified*.
* Primary, Secondary and Tertiary assets, at home and lots of places abroad.
Point being: Predators are well-diversified, sheep are not. The former will hunt on any pasture. The latter... too scared, and therefore prefers their own pasture. Sames as it ever was.
I don't agree, PE ratio of asia is 13 with forward PE of 11.
I read a magazine. In 1995.
Chris88 please stfu you are an idiot. I don't have time to address your ignorant spew line by line but egad get a grip. you don't know more about china than laomei and you sure the fuck don't know more about bankers than LoP. This is the real world not some bullshit college exam.
...how about getting with the program? Why don't you jump on the team and come on in for the big win? [/Full Metal Jacket]
How was Chris88 mistaken?
THE COVER OF BARRON'S, OMG, THEY'RE DOOMED. BUG LULZ
china is obviously planning moar bailouts, moar bank reserve requirement cuts, and a whole lot of boc interventions in the near future. whether that will keep the a share equity bull alive who can say.
Most people who live in the US-centric worldview don't understand China and don't understand China’s real history. If they did, the stupid post like this one wouldn't be here.
But your implication is that they understand us perfectly. 60 years of a One Party educational system obviously fosters deep and true understanding of alien cultures.
Unlike many Americans, it seems most ordinary Chinese don't swallow their government brainwashing propaganda. In fact, most believe the opposite is true, unfortunately. You believe the one party with three talking heads educational system in the US is far superior to the Chinese one party one talking head counterpart? For thousands of years the Chinese have always been very arrogant/proud people and they don't give a fuck about other cultures at all. Take a good look at their modernity since 1850s. They really dislike liberalism and its associated junk. Do they really need to understand us?
The vast majority of the Chinese are like everyone everywhere else. They just want to make a buck and be left alone.
"Take a good look at their modernity since 1850..."
I take a good look at their modernity in 2015 and it sure seems like they are culturally hell-bent on emulating the West, of which they are painfully and obviously jealous of.
Pop over to that other China thread and look at the group of Chinese models protesting their exclusion from the Shanghai Auto Show. They can tell you all about their reverence for the old ways and their not giving a fuck about other cultures.
How does the old Confucianism go?
One picture is worth a thousand words.
I don't follow any pop culture, and don't know what is spoon-fed in their or our MSM. Jealousy? No. The urgency to catch up military and financially, yes. What their leaders still can't completely let go is how the West including then just modernized Japan had forced them to swallow shit load of humiliations after humiliation for over 100 years. What they want is their stolen gold and silver back, their superpower house back, and their culture to dominate in their sphere again.
Yeah, and millions of Chinese were just fine with 'swallowing shitloads of humiliations' at the hand of the West as long as they made money. The Chinese should look at themselves a bit more before laying the blame for their past woes on someone else. Tell me, how did china become so weak pre-1800 that a people halfway around the world sailing wooden boats conquer them? Where exactly is this former superpower status?
I've met and worked with several young Chinese and they generally are very knowledgeable about America. Yet they all seem to have this fear of the West and it's people. Once they meet us and work with us they realize we are not so different from them and only wish them the best. They then realize that their gov't is lying to them, as ours is of course. The problem the Chinese and Western people have is their gov'ts.
Every nation govt lies but unlike yankees other nation govt dont lie so blatantly
Maybe a top if ZH was touting China.
Not yet. Another 20 - 30% rise to get everyone in. Then like the tech bubble of 2000. It is going to be very ugly in China.