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Peak Oil Optimism
Speculative bets on rising Brent crude oil prices reached a new record last week but under the surface futures and options market positioning among managed money accounts is flashing a very red warning signal...
As Saxobank's Ole Hanson notes, the long/short ratio has reached 6.4 meaning that for each lot of shorts more than 6 lots are long.
Historically, this looks extreme and on three previous occasions since early 2013 a reading above 6 subsequently triggered sell-offs of which the most recent was last June when the price peaked at $115.
While the focus remains on geopolitical worries the speculative data are pointing to an increased risk of a setback. A gross long of 322 million barrels only requires a small change in the fundamental or technical picture to turn into a rout.
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Shortly after this note, it appears Goldman also sees the same thing...
Goldman strategists John Marshall and Katherine Fogertey, in note, say have seen evidence from option markets that energy/oil positioning has “moved overly bullish in recent days.”
Investors willing to pay increasingly high prices for calls relative to puts, citing decline in put-call skew
Sees shift as “sharp contrast” vs overly bearish positioning from March 18
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Trade accordingly.
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Goldman! nuff said.
Oil was the commodity safe haven for money in 2008, until... 2009, but then it was again.
Safer than government bonds? Who knows.
i think this must be peak 'peak references'
Yeah, I don't understand the optimism with regard to rising oil prices. It's going lower folks and that's why now would be a great time to raise taxes on fuel and just raise taxes across the board on the middle class population. We need to drive wages down if we're going to remain competitive and make good profits here in the financial sector. We have to do whatever it takes to keep the profits coming in. The markets will just keep going up and up if we do!
You forgot to put "sarc".
I am coming to get you and I am bringing my dog
I noticed the Nymex didn't take it so well today after the mother frackers roast. Got a bit frazzled ... Really all but nat gas which got stronger on the day while the rest of them fell out off their saddle and had seizures on the ground the rest of the afternoon.
Next rollover in oil signals a broad market rollover.
Overly optimistic people often make bad decisions which cause other people to loose money
Another High-Level Banker Confirms Gold Market Rigging
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PQILP88qUA (10:49)
Russian oil executive sneaks gold market rigging into the Financial Times
http://www.gata.org/node/15101
must have been a bad case of editorial somnolance
The whole CME is like this, but especially WTI Crude: There is no price discovery. The price will go wherever the largest cartel of market makers wills it to go.
Our algos are picking up patterns that show an orchestrated spike in oil... and it all starts with the short squeezing we've been seeing the past few weeks.
https://twitter.com/Intellikon/status/587742218762526720
Tell me again why gasoline contracts for the USA follow Brent.
Oh yeah, following WTI didn't result in higher gasoline contracts so the market manipulators rebenchmarked gasoline contracts to follow Brent.
$59 WTI and $2.90 gas. So fucking happy to get ripped off every single day.
Obvious manipulation and nothing is done.
Well the president warned of antisemitism. Funny how that card is always played when the "market" is robbing the population.
Jeez is everybody that stupid.
Who do you think is buying the longs. How much do you think Wall street needs to spend before they con a new bunch of half wits to hand over cash to buy the next hopium bumper yield on fucking bombed out bankrupt fracking debt, especially when they say, " see the price is oil is rising, don't miss your chance, get in early baby for the recovery"
Im estimating less than 10 % of whats raised spent on leveraged longs will lift prices by 20 % plus on what they are raising for the fucking frackers right now, and it must be getting very close to where little more can squeezed from the muppets
Fucking muppets, fall for it every time. And guess what, the same fucking muppets are the ones who are goosing the oil price when the frackers they just "invested" in again hand the cash back to Wall street together with their fees for them to have a second bite at the muppets.
Im shorting every bump up cos the minute the muppets have done buying this round of fucking junk I will bet the store on oil dropping 50% again
After 6 years of 'recovery' and the negative consumption it brought about, I can't even see 'peak oil' in the rear view mirror anymore.
Not Peak Oil, but Peak Oil Price. How long will oil stay down this low or lower? 10? 20? Maybe 30 years? The price of oil will usher in a new global order with new geopolitical realities that are uncertain....except for one thing: The Arabs are f$cked.
Oil at $65 Could Free 500,000 Barrels From Shale ’Fracklog’
24 April 2015, by Lynn Doan and Dan Murtaugh (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-24/oil-at-65-seen-freeing-half-million-barrels-from-shale-fracklog