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As The 10 Year Selloff Accelerates, "All Eyes On The 2.27%/2.32% Support Zone"
For the chartists out there (and these days that would mean pretty much all momentum-igniting algos who are the only ones left trading these here "markets") the following note from SocGen explaining why if/when the 10Y selloff rises above 2.32% it may be a time to panic (and vice versa) is quite relevant now that the 10Y is just a few basis points away.
10Y UST: all eyes on the 2.27%/2.32% support zone
The 10Y UST has been forming a possible reversal pattern (Head and Shoulders) since last October and approached the confirmation level at 2.27%/2.32%. 2.27%/2.32% also coincides with the main channel support in force since late 2013 hence highlights this support zone is pivotal. Daily indicators are near multi-month floor hence they render it difficult to state whether this pattern will be confirmed. However, in the instance of 2.27%2.32% is breached, the sell-off would extend further, probably at a fast pace, towards 2.40% and 2.47% next. Near term, as hourly momentum indicators are also near a multi-month floor and positively diverging from prices a short-term pullback is set to happen to 2.15%/2.14%. A break above will mean a deeper retracement to 2.10%/2.08% and possibly even 2.02%/2.00%.
And this is where the 10Y is now:
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Dividends still win.
Do you know where your 10 year yield is? Do you care?
I remember when 10k in savings paid my eletric bill..... Wake me when it's at 6% again
When investing in Amerca made you money!
Ha! What a world that must have been. I wish there was something I could do with my money that would earn me interest that doesn't involve the stock market. Bonds suck, cash sucks, gold and silver stays subdued - I of course continue to buy it tho - and the only option is the corporate stock market.
Give my earnings to corporations in hope this act creates savings? Not when I know their P/Es and the rest of their books. Nope, I'll just count my silver dollars once in a blue moon and buy when ever I have extra cash at the end of the month.
I had I Bonds (US Savings Bonds) that had 5 - 6% yields back in the day.
- the Middle American
Someone's got to wear the knight's armor CD. Yeah I know where the ten year is
;)
I'll trade you my worthless paper for your worthless paper so I can make a gain of more worthless paper......
Grandma Yellen says treasury yields are quite high.
Just doesn't get old, does it?
Nope. It fits for every occcasion. Look at Baltimore:
Grandma Yellen says racial tensions are quite high.
See how that works? Awesome is it not?
Ok, ok, let me try one.... Grandma Yellen says the corruption level in DC is quite high.
Well smack my ass and call me Susan. It DOES work!
Be careful how you use that. You'll hurt yourself if you use it wrong.
Grandma Yellen says Colorado is quite high
Three Stooges forever....
Grandma? Thats a man baby!
ask dudley where he wants the 10 year to be and that is where it will be. apparently that's how it works. on no news, on negative data, we've had a 40 basis point non-stop ride up that is triggered at 8:45 (first weeks) and now 10AM. good riddance.
The debt and unfunded liabilities are what they are...
tick tock motherfuckers...
House Mortgage?
Car loan?
Credit Card debt?
School Loan?
Do most have the cash to pay them off,,,,, If not then they are all unfunded liabilities? No?
Sure, but that's their problem. Dumbasses should be living within their means. Stop trying to "fix" stupid, it cannot be done and will just deplete all the resources you have. Evolution is what it is, fuck em.
The Fed continues increasing the POMO buy side bid at the current exponential rate - buy size is $40B every month for the POMO desk - so what becomes of the currency printed in aggregate to buy said bonds? It devalues at the same rate.
The diminishing returns of this investment by the Federal Reserve Bank, and make no mistake they are a bank and operate for profit, will outweigh the operating cost vs revenue and they will stop their purchases. The FRB operates to fund the global cartel. If they can no longer operate as the funding mechinism another will take over, like war for example.
So, same as it ever was then? There has never been an economic, political, fiscal, or monetary solution to resource scarcity.
They can't continue their purchases at the current rate without declaring bankrupcy. If the Fed folds the system is over. If the Fed scales back and rates rise they could last another 5 - 10 years.
And by last I mean they would not be the biggest fish in the room. The IMF wants that job and it will throw the ECB and the Fed under the bus to do so.
The IMF, without the backing of congress and American military might, is useless.
Let them thow all the useless paper-pushing bankers, financiers, and their political puppets (now a political class) under the fucking bus, if they can. It would be the best thing to happen to the world in quite a while.
Interesting times.
Extremely interesting times.
The art is not to figure out what is going on but to accept what is going on. A sense of dread replaced by a sense of fascination. The grandkids will love the stories provided we make it there.
that's not a head and shoulders, not even an inverse head and shoulders - not that i believe in this BS. there is no left shoulder.
I could not see anything in that graph....head and sholders my backside...I saw a pink elephant flying thru the clouds is all I saw
Stick to just gin on your cornflakes.Or skip the cereal.
OK, so I went to read some "Pro" article on CNBC (there's a green tag that says "Pro" next to it). Gotta sign up to read them. No biggie- give 'em my spam email and off we go. But wait! They want me to PAY MONEY for it. And I don't mean like a buck or two. We're talking about $300 for a year.
$300 FUCKING DOLLARS TO READ SOME PIECE OF SHIT CNBC ARTICLE THAT WAS PROBABLY WRITTEN BY A SECOND-RATE SELL-SIDE MOMENTUM TRADER?? YOU GOTTA BE FUCKING KIDDING ME!!
I think I'd rather subscribe to Gartman's newsletter.
Grandma Yellen says the cost of CNBS articles are quite high. ;->
YUP and here we just ask
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That's fantastic.
Right, at least with Gartman you know to do the exact opposite to be profitable.
But do you believe in free advice?
I am sure Yellen wants 15% interest rates.....then watch Obama start yelling at Yellen...I hope we hit 5 % before the elections....and the CDC has to come out with their bullshit figures to show how bad our budget is...
transitory
There goes oil....
Look -- Up in the Sky! It's a bird, it's a plane -- NO! It's a bond Black Swan!
Lots of de-leveraging ahead, and I doubt the exit doors are big enough for the big banks that guessed wrong. Grab your wallets and open them up so we can bail them out again!
Oh, come on!
They print up the money and call it a loan so the plebs won't catch on to the scam. They could take everybody's entire income and not come close to paying off the 'loans'.
And if they could, it would take so much money out of circulation there'd be one hell of a depression.
But somehow Greece made a 400 million dollar payment to the IMF...how did that happen...
Doesn't Grandma know that she is responsible for those "high valuations"? Must have a touch of Alzheimers setting in.
The June 15 30-Year Treasury futures took out the March 6th low today.
Looks like it may be time for some FED market intervention.
Double Posted somehow...
Bullish...... BTFD
3% here we come!
Back in late April, when Abe was in DC and the nervous Japanese got reassurances that the US still had their back on the Senkaku islands et alia (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-27/officials-warn-japan-take-more-assertive-military-role-senkakus-fall-under-us-japan-), I was wondering what form the Chinese blowback would take. Would they issue a blustery statement denouncing it (if they have I haven't seen it)? Or would they take a quieter, more indirect approach - perhaps taking a page from Rickards. Or perhaps Xi has his hands full with decelerating growth, overleveraged gov't entities (quasi or otherwise) and the islands are no longer high priority. Don't know, but have been keeping my eyes on the TNX and TYX since.
Is this a case of two-handed chart readers, or is the bond bust underway?