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ADP Employment Tumbles To 15 Month Lows As Manufacturing Jobs Plunge
Following March's dismal drop in the ADP Employment report (the biggest miss in 4 years) and missing for 3 straight months, April printed a very weak 169k (against notably lowere expectations of a 200k rise). Even worse, February and March was revised even lower. This is lower than the lowest economist estimate.
Large companies were particularly weak which is to be expected considering the unprecedented M&A and buyback spree which is entirely at the expense of workers (and wages) while smaller businesses adding the bulk of the meager jobs print. All job gains were in the Services segment with Manufacturing losing 10,000 jobs in April and the goods-producing sector losing 1,000.
The esteemed Mark Zandi blames this on "the fallout from the collapse of oil prices and the surging value of the dollar."
Must be the oil port strike again. Or perhaps it rained in the spring?
The details:
From the report:
Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 94,000 jobs in April, down from 105,000 in March. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 70,000 jobs, up from 64,000 the previous month. Employment gains at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – decreased slightly from March, adding 5,000 jobs in April, down from 6,000. Companies with 500-999 employees added no jobs, after adding just 2,000 in March. Companies with over 1,000 employees added 5,000 jobs, a small improvement from 4,000 the previous month.
Goods-producing employment declined by 1,000 jobs in April, down from 3,000 jobs gained in March.
The construction industry added 23,000 jobs, up from 21,000 last month. Meanwhile, manufacturing lost 10,000 jobs in April, after losing 3,000 in March.
Service-providing employment rose by 170,000 jobs in April, down slightly from 172,000 in March. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 34,000 jobs in April, up from March’s 28,000. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 44,000, up from March’s 41,000. The 7,000 new jobs added in financial activities is a drop from last month’s 12,000.
"April job gains came in under 200,000 for the second straight month,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Companies with 500 or more employees had the slowest growth."
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said,
“Fallout from the collapse of oil prices and the surging value of the dollar are weighing on job creation. Employment in the energy sector and manufacturing is declining. However, this should prove temporary and job growth will reaccelerate this summer.”
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry
And the biggest ADP value added: the infographic.
Charts: Bloomberg
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And Friday the nonfarm employment report from the BLS will show the polar opposite.
Doing technical analysis on charts of fabricated data. Now that's useful.
Whocouldaknowed the data was gonna be so bad?
But bad is good isn't it?
I bet it's worse than these numbers from seeing how empty the roads were while shopping yesterday.
The official state policy is to not believe ANYTHING we personally see or experience. Our leaders will inform us of any relevant statistics that they think are important for us to know.
To spread unofficial anecdotal perspectives without proper vetting and approvals is unpatriotic at the very least and actually an act of sedition if you do it convincingly.
Have to keep the numbers looking good.
More stock buybacks!
Manufacturing is a relic of the past in the world of the current Fed heads.
Manufactured fabricated data,
BOOYAH!
Yup, remove 2 million from the workforce and don't count them, then add 169K = Winning!
put some corn in a three side fenced plot and watch em run in for a freebie.
corn feed and fatten em up for the kill. don't even have to hunt em down.
coralled plebs, nice. now withdraw the corn and make it a pay per view event.
can you say baltimore? send in the media coverage(nielsen ratings) and walla, pay per advertisement event.
Doing technical analysis on fabricated data in a rigged market
Calling Mr Bullard....calling Mr Bullard....
DavidC
My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... www.jobs-review.com
Bullish...............( sarc )
People are tripping over the green shoots, or getting mustard seeds in their eyes on the way to find work.
Escape velocity in 9,000,000...8,999,999....
Qe4 then the dollar selling spree begins.
This should be good for what? A 200 point DOW spike!
Maybe a 500 spike in the DOW. QEs and buying stocks to save those with asset at the expense of the lower 80%.
any chance they spot Zandi on a Miami beach performing luscious acts so that we can lock up that douchebag once and for all.
while we are at it, make it "wall streeter bachanalia beach day" on miami beach and in one fell swoop get rid of all those financial terrorists that represent all that is bad in our society.
Moody's pays this guy. Wow!
Goes to show you how credible Moodys is.
How will I know a luscious act when I see one?
rut-roh, shaggy. Unit labor costs are up 5% vs 4.2% prior and 4.5% expected. When productivity drops like that in the face of money printing, we are putting the foot on the first step to in your face inflation (not the stealth kind being imposed on the middle class by the FED).
Nope.
Moar like a lot less units being produced per labor hour
Which means expect massive lay offs and a deflationary implosion ahead.
Heading into the next recession (inside the larger depression) with all monetary policy options already expended, short of literal helicoper money drops. This one might sting a bit.
Very few people alive today have lived through a recession where the Fed hasn't stepped in and lowered interest rates.
It was due to all the snow this past week.
Due to the forest fires in California and drought.
There's always an excuse for bad news.
Labor costs report was interesting. Costs running a hot 5% but productivity decreased. The Fed may have just backed itself into a corner and be forced to raise rates.
I work in Human Resources in distribution/ warehousing and third part logisitics (3PL) We always have openings but payrates are around $10.50 hr to start in an area of the country with a lower cost of living. It is very hard to find people that actually want to work. Everyone wants to get paid but they don't want to work. We have to go through about 8 people to find one good one. I don't know what it is but I've been in this business for a little over 20 yrs and it get's worse every year...maybe there is too much incentive not to work??
so 8 people wanted to work but you only hired one of them.
Nope, for every 8 we hire only 1 turns out to be a decent worker..
Thats actually a good rate from my experience here in Florida.
Not just a US problem either, hearing the same from friends and relatives across Europe.
Seriously, who and what type of person are you going to get for $10.50 / hour ?? That is barely enough to live in your parents basement.
Forget about the amount being paid, I always figure it will take way more than ten hires before you find one halfass okay person ( and I mean halfass ). I was working as a subcontractor on a construction jobsite in Virginia, the main contractor could not get ANYONE to work for him!! His company offered a pretty decent starting pay for dumb ass laborer positions ( $15-20 hr on a State / Federal construction jobsite around 2000-2001). Every day I would see one of the white hat supers come out and tap a new guy on the shoulder - he would take the shiney new hardhat from the new guy , and then escort him off of the jobsite.
All of the new applicants failed the drug test. 2 or 3 days after being hired, the piss test results came back , and they got their druggy scumbag asses yanked off the jobsite. What we were doing was extremely dangerous, and there was no room for mistakes. I mean absolutely no room - one mistake equalled a disaster, or someone would be dead.
My contract lasted for about two months, and seeing guys yanked was a daily occurance. That was funny shit to see firsthand. When we were done with our part of the job, the Prime contracter tried to hire me on, and I could not help but laugh my ass off.
NO ONE WANTS TO WORK!
Everyone wants to get paid for what they think is work.
Are you a hater?
Do you hate the "worker"?
This idea of people receiving pay for "productivity" is just madness. How are we ever going to reach the panacea of "equality" if some people who are willing to work harder are paid more? As a matter of fact, it is even unfair to allow children to have a quality upbringing, as those loved and cared for have too great of an advantage over those who do not.
So just stop with the hate!
‘One way philosophers might think about solving the social justice problem would be by simply abolishing the family. If the family is this source of unfairness in society then it looks plausible to think that if we abolished the family there would be a more level playing field.’ http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/philosopherszone/new-family...
sarcasm IS intended
Possibly not you, but HR is a joke. Just a legal buffer for businesses, which in reality is just a thorn in the side. The number of interviews I have had and the HR rep knows nothing other than the simple job description given to them is constant. The questioning is sophmoric and only determines if you can think on your feet and lie.
Ask your candidates legitimate questions and describe the true detail of the work. Skip the safety videos and have them observe the actual work. You are dealing with entry level people, so turnover is expected. Introduce skill training programs or profit share to have the workers invested in their day to day.
I'm not hiring rocket scientist, I'm hiring people to unload containers and pick pack and load trucks. You are right in that much of what HR is asked to do and also required now to do because of gov regs is a joke. They not only get a true detail of the work but they get a tour of the job and see what it actually takes to get it done. Jus know a little math and have a little muscle and you should be able to do the job.
By the way we pay an incentive after training that is not capped so the more efficient you work the more you can make, I have guys making $16 an hour for loading a truck because they know how to move and they know how to read...like I said it is not rocket science..but unfortunately I stand by my original comment people want the pay but they don't want to work.
Now that is some good news. I hate to see people having to work when there are so many more important things to do. Like take me for example. I literally and I do mean literally have to write an essay on Moby Dick. Thus, when Krugman gets Yellen to go up my FAFSA I end up studying my Moby Dick and so you see how important it is for people not to work during these critical economic times.
Please stop with the education, alright? Just do minimal work to get your certificate, but please NO NOT try to exceed or succeed. You are just making hard on the rest of us slackers just looking to get paid for doing nothing. Who knows, if I just don't fuck anything up, I might get a promotion!
Productivity is on the same glide path as our economy. Just not losing is the new "winning".
I use my local Home Depot to gauge the retail traffic. Last Saturday around 9am it was ghostly quiet. Plenty of employees standing around asking me if I need help. Ha, I bought two lightbulbs.
tease
Its all those higher minimum wage jobs.....millions of them I hear...double the minimum wage and there will be more jobs....yeah right..
Keep construction going up, break more windows.
The solution is obvious; but the consequences for stating it are certain to be dire for any of those who speak out.
Globalization is the problem.Even James Cramer opined last month that every trade deal ever entered into by the United States has led to the loss of jobs and the loss of economic opportunity for the American worker.
Nationalism is good as long as it doesn't go to the extremes of Fascism and Imperialism.
An American-centric economic policy can be stated simply:
Higher education for all of us, or even for the most of us, is not the answer. We, ourselves in our country, need to do the basic things that sustain us. Basic agriculture, textiles, assembly, food-processing, and materials handling jobs require very little formal education; but these are essential to any economy.
On a more advanced level, it is unfair to our countrymen to use foreign-educated professionals and skilled labor as substitutes for people with similar skills in America. So, the employer-sponsored immigration of foreign-trained skilled workers should entail a tax equal to 100% of the total compensation that an immigrant worker would receive for up to a maximum of 5 years.
During that 5 year period one or two things should happen:
This process would reverse the flow of Research, Development, and Applied Engineering jobs back to America.
well thought thru!
in an age of no or little growth for the forseeable future the social stability of the country should be an overriding objective of national policy - not business conditions or profits
the course we are on will result in 25% REAL unemployment or more permanently
Printing money is not the answer / providing for the banks welfare is not the answer !
$10.50 today is less than the $1.60 minimum wage I worked for in 1973 when adjusted for inflation...add the increase in SS, healthcare, and taxes and no wonder you can't find many decent employees. That wage would be high on the indifference curve where working vs. sucking the safety net nipple would be a tradeoff easily in favor of not having the hassle of working. Especially if you have kids that need daycare. I worked in one of the largest warehouses in the country a couple years later than (Hallmark in Liberty Mo.) and made just under $9/hr. Decent pay then for a college kid that could handle unloading trucks and throwing a lot of boxes on conveyors. Anyway it would have been tough then taking care of a family now try making $10.50 work now paying rent, car, food expenses on $370 a week take home. There is a reason you are getting poor employees. You are the bottom of the pay scale for that kind of work you can't survive at those wages for long. Not meant to criticize your company its the economy. Have a bud that was in mgmt at one of Targets warehouses in Ohio. He had the same story but they were paying near $15.
Completely understand Kansas, but that is starting pay..and it is actually competitive for this area and not at the bottom of the pay scale. After 90 days these guys can get measured pay on top of that and and make $16 per hour. Unfortuantely the nature of the beast is what it is... but if a person has absolutely no skills except they know how to do manual labor you can't expect someone to pay you much more than that.
Id say we're doing much better then a thousend years ago! So thank Oby for that!
The (3rd) graph from the top - the 'Mariana trench' looking graph - quite an amazing 'recovery' if one didn't know any better about the miracles of $cheap money...
Obviously this wasn't a true miss, it was due to POLLEN SEASON. After pollen season passes productivity will skyrocket.
Obviously this wasn't a true miss, it was due to POLLEN SEASON. After pollen season passes productivity will skyrocket.
Instead of dreaming and hoping why don't economists look at the drivers of figures..
Eg how many factories opened or closed in the last few months.
If more goods are imported then inflation will go own but jobs will also go down.
As many US auto factories are moving to Mexico to pay less than $8 an hour then there will be more once highly paid Americans looking for non existant jobs.
Companies do not exist just to create jobs for people.