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The Complete UK Election Preview
The UK General Election will be held tomorrow. The polls close at 10 pm. We should have a pretty clear picture of the overall seat count by 5 to 6 am on Friday morning. The result, as SocGen notes, is almost certain to be a hung parliament.
Then the fun will really start.
The leader of the incumbent Conservative/ Liberal Democrat coalition (David Cameron) stays in power until or unless it becomes clear that he does not have the ability to form a new government. Most polls are showing that the Conservatives will win the most seats but fall far short of an absolute majority. That will then lead to a contest between them and the Labour party to negotiate with the other parties to form some type of formal or informal coalition. The first test of the new government will be the vote on its legislative programme which is then presented in the Queen’s speech (tentatively scheduled for 27 May). That vote should be in the early part of June.
The main concern for the markets should be whether or not a Conservative-led coalition is formed that is sufficiently supportive of the Conservative’s plans to allow them to hold the promised Brexit referendum by the end of 2017.
Here are the possible outcomes (along with SocGen's probabilities)...
As a reference, here are 2010's results:
And here are the key features of tomorrow's election relative to that result...
1) A reduction in Conservative seats and an increase in Labour seats;
2) A major fall in support for the Liberal Democrats who could easily see the number of seats won fall to less than 30;
3) A surge in the SNP seats from 6 to maybe even more than 50;
4) The poor performance of the UKIP (UK Independence Party), despite its heavy influence on Conservative party policy in recent years. As the chart above shows, they won NO seats in 2010. They currently have two seats as a result of defections from the Conservative party but they will be lucky to win even one more seat than that. So, in the absence of the most unlikely outcome of the Conservatives being only one or two seats short of a stable government, UKIP would have no role in the formation of the next government.
The opinion polls show Conservative and Labour to be neck and neck
SocGen concludes, there is a real choice between the broad fiscal plans of the Conservative and Labour parties.
Labour would cut the deficit more slowly to allow a higher level of net investment than the Conservatives plan. That is a defensible position, worthy of debate at a time when financing costs are at record lows.
However, the key point for the markets is that both major parties have plans to continue austerity at a pace that would satisfy the markets. Certainly, the Labour party has been accused of being anti-big business but that is something that, if true, would only have a gradual impact on the economic future of the UK.
More immediately worrying for the financial markets would be if the Conservatives were able to construct a form of coalition that allowed them to deliver the promised Brexit referendum by the end of 2017. That would create lasting uncertainty that could damage business and investor confidence.
Deutsche Bank believes UK politics alone are unlikely to derail the recovery or meaningfully change foreign appetite for UK assets, in the short term at least and lays out 7 predictions for post-election UK...
Rather than try to guess the outcome, however, in this note we make a few broad brush predictions about what the post-election UK will look like for investors. Our conclusion is that while the politics is extremely uncertain, the policy mix may undergo less rather than more change. Politics alone are unlikely to derail the recovery or meaningfully change foreign appetite for UK assets, in the short term at least.
For GBP, once the initial uncertainty over government formation has passed, the focus should quickly turn back to the monetary policy outlook. On that front, we still see the risks lying in earlier rate cuts from the Bank of England than the market expects. For this reason we see value in using election uncertainty as an opportunity to position into EUR/GBP shorts.
Prediction #1: Fiscal policy will be easier, but the deficit will fall
At the Budget in March, forecast tightening over the next five years fell from 5.5% GDP to 4.4% as the coalition abandoned its goal of a GBP 23bn surplus by 2019-20, but the next two years were still projected to be roughly as austere as at the start of the coalition.1 After the election, there is reason to think this may change.
In the first place, Labour policy is less tight than implied by current forecasts. As the IFS notes, the party’s plans mean only moderate reductions in departmental spending may be required. Under the increasingly likely probability the SNP holds influence over the next parliament, policy could be easier still. The party currently advocates rises of 0.5% public spending in real terms. Note that even under SNP plans, Treasury analysis suggests that the deficit would continue to fall.3 If the Conservatives were to remain in office, current forecasts may not materialize. The party eased off austerity in the middle of the last parliament as growth suffered, and there are question marks over where additional cuts implied by their deficit plans will come from. The party may also be helped by the improving growth outlook. Receipts have started to improve in recent months, and the OBR’s current growth projections are on the pessimistic side of official forecasters. In sum, and as our economist has noted, it may be helpful to look through the very noisy political debate on the deficit, and focus instead on the underlying improvement in the public finances. This has important implications for sterling, because the Bank of England’s inflation and growth projections as of the February Inflation Report are currently predicated on the very austere fiscal path outlined in the December Autumn Statement. Easier fiscal policy should provide the bank with more scope for monetary tightening.
Prediction #2: There will be no fiscal crisis, whatever the outcome
Even if fiscal policy were loosened, there seems little chance of a fiscal crisis. In the first place, the structural deficit has halved over the last five years. Perhaps more importantly, the markets’ understanding of fiscal risks has moved on since 2010, when a genuine loss of investor confidence in the UK finances was arguably on the cards. As the Eurozone crisis has shown, debt and deficits are much more relevant when countries lack an independent monetary policy. A lack of market concern is reflected in credit spreads, which remain at pre-crisis lows. Third, the external environment is very favorable for UK assets. The ECB’s QE program had driven yields of core fixed income negative across the curve. One of the obvious beneficiaries should be the UK. The spread between 10-year UK and German yields is currently the widest on record. Today’s Bank of England data showed massive (GBP 26bn) foreign buying of gilts in March, more than reversing outflows in the first two months of the year.
Prediction #3: The UK will remain one of the most attractive destinations for foreign investment
The last few years have been very positive for foreign investment. FDI inflows to the UK have totaled over 8% of GDP since the fourth quarter of 2012, financing around half of the current account deficit. The policy mix has played an important role. The corporation tax rate has fallen from 28% to 21% over the last five years, seeing the UK leapfrog above every OECD country save Switzerland in terms of corporate tax competitiveness. On the margin, a Labour-led administration would imply a moderately less positive investment climate than a Conservative one, but the policy mix is not set for wholesale change. The party favors keeping the corporation tax rate at its current low level (against another 1% cut proposed by the Conservatives). We doubt that other Labour party policies such as a mansion tax, changes to the non-domicile status of taxpayers and rises in the top rate of income tax, will result in a foreign exodus. Significant changes to the tax treatment of non-doms and foreign purchases of UK property were made by the current coalition government over the last five years with no apparent effect on foreign investors’ appetite for UK assets.
Prediction #4: A new Scottish referendum won’t happen anytime soon
Last year’s Scottish independence referendum generated panic among investors as it became apparent that a ‘yes’ vote was a real possibility, with potentially destabilizing consequences for the UK banking system and economy. But even if the SNP were to hold the balance of power after the next election, it seems unlikely that a new referendum would materialize soon. The party made no mention of another referendum in its manifesto released earlier this month. This should not be surprising – recent polling suggests that the issue ranks extremely low on Scottish voters’ priorities. Even if the SNP wished to reintroduce the question over the next five years, the party’s leverage over a future Labour government may be overestimated (see Prediction #6). A more likely date for the issue to be reintroduced is after the Scottish parliamentary elections in May next year, assuming the SNP holds on to its majority in the Scottish parliament. But it is also worth pointing out that a future referendum would likely be less destabilizing than last year’s events. Precisely because of uncertainty in September, authorities and businesses are now much better informed about the risks of a Scottish exit, particularly with respect to risks concerning the banking sector.
Prediction #5: An EU referendum may be good for the UK economy
Under the Conservatives, a referendum on the UK’s membership in the European Union would likely be held before 2017 following a renegotiation of the UK’s terms of membership. A ‘Brexit’ could have severe consequences for UK growth performance and foreign investment, and the potential impact on business confidence leading into a referendum has been widely noted.6 Less commented on, however, are the potential benefits that a renegotiation could bring to the British economy. As our economists have argued, the UK is uniquely placed to benefit from reforms to the EU Single Market and the Department for Business Innovation and Skills has estimated that the potential gains for British exports could add up to 7% GDP.7 A referendum may be an ideal bargaining chip for the UK to remodel aspects of the EU in its favor. Of course, this would depend on an ‘in’ vote, but polls currently suggest a majority in favor of staying in, particularly after a successful renegotiation.
Prediction #6: A Labour minority government would be more stable than you might think
If no party wins a majority next Thursday, the UK faces the prospect of a coalition or minority government. In the event that SNP support is required to pass legislation in the House of Commons, an increasingly probable outcome given the latest opinion polls in Scotland, the latter seems the more likely option. Labour has ruled out a formal deal with the nationalists. Some have argued that if the SNP held the balance of power, the result could be destabilizing, but the party’s leverage may be less than thought. Even if the SNP found Labour uncooperative on key policy issues, it would not be rational for them to bring down the government with a vote of no-confidence.
This would cause a new election, a possible future Conservative government, and damaging Labour accusations that the SNP had voted down a ‘progressive’ administration (we outline the SNP’s options on a decision tree on the previous page). The party also looks set to perform exceptionally well next week, with some polls suggesting a near clean sweep of Labour’s seats. It is unclear why the party would want to risk these with a new election.
Prediction #7: There may be less change rather than more
Precisely because no party is likely to have enough seats for a majority, it is difficult to envisage sweeping changes to the policy mix. The last five years have seen the deficit cut in half, the employment rate reach a record high and UK growth accelerate above any other advanced economy. Major challenges remain, however. The current account deficit has reached a record, meaning much-vaunted ‘rebalancing’ has failed to occur. Productivity has also been the weakest among any G10 country. This has important implications for wage growth, which has been very slow relative to previous recoveries. Indeed, the current fracturing of the UK’s political environment can indirectly be attributed to imbalances in the labour market. Pollsters find that a key explanatory variable behind support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), for example, is lack of a university degree. 8 It is unclear whether any major party has the solutions for these issues, but also doubtful that it will have the electoral resources. On the other hand, the doom-laden predictions of certain commentators are unlikely to materialize.
* * *
Finally, Goldman simplifies the decision process to three potential outcomes. While there is a whole range of potential outcomes to the May 7 election, each of the most likely governmental combinations falls into one of three broad groupings:
1. A Conservative-led government (either on its own or in coalition with the LibDems). This is likely to be perceived as the most ‘market-friendly’ outcome, partly because it would come closest to maintaining the status quo and also because the Conservatives’ stated aim is to reduce the budget deficit through cutting current expenditure rather than by raising taxes. Set against this, the Conservatives’ commitment to hold a referendum on EU membership by 2017 and the increased risk of exit would likely be negative for investment spending and UK assets.
2. A Labour-led government (either on its own, with the implicit support of the SNP, or in a formal coalition with the LibDems) would shift the balance of further fiscal adjustment away from spending cuts to tax increases. Labour’s proposals include: raising the top rate of income tax from 45% to 50%; raising the headline corporation tax rate from 20% to 21% (offset by measures designed to help small businesses); increasing the ‘Bank Levy’ on banks’ balance sheets, applying a second ‘one-off’ tax on bank bonuses, removing the non-domicile tax status and introducing a ‘Mansion Tax’ on residential properties worth more than £2 million. At the same time, a government of this complexion would be less likely to contemplate a referendum on Britain’s EU membership.
Of the potential Labour-led government combinations, financial markets would likely respond more favourably to a Labour/LibDem coalition than to a minority Labour government supported by the SNP on a confidence and supply basis. (The Labour party has ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP.) In this scenario, concerns are likely to emerge that reliance on the SNP would pull the Labour government away from the centre to the left of the political spectrum, as well as raising the spectre of distributional policies favouring Scotland at the expense of the UK as a whole.
3. It is also possible that there will be no clear outcome to the election. If no party (or coalition of parties) is able to form a stable government, a second election could be called shortly after the first or a minority government might attempt to struggle on. Again, the lack of clarity surrounding such an impasse would likely be damaging for UK growth and assets.
* * *
The Bottom Line is that at the macro level the implications of the election may be less pronounced than many anticipate. Monetary policy has been de-politicised through the Bank of England’s independence. Moreover, the formation of a coalition government is likely to involve convergence towards centrist positions, while a minority administration that pursues policies outside the mainstream would be unlikely to survive given its fragile parliamentary basis. In either case, the political system is unlikely to deliver radically different macroeconomic outcomes.
Sources: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, Societe Generale, and Deutsche Bank
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Actually today (Thursday), not tomorrow. As of the time of publication of Tyler's article.
Evidently he forgot about time zones.
"Rule, Britannia! rule the waves:
Britons never will be slaves."
never never never shall be slaves,
not
never will be slaves.
There is a difference in meaning (shall - imperative, will - future tense).
"never, never, never shall be slaves"
The White House begs to differ
Rule Britannia
Oh Marmalade and Jam
5 Chinese crackers up your asshole
Bang Bang Bang Bang BANG
Nice verse.
You always had a way with words, Fud.
My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... www.jobs-review.com
Just last night I tuned in on line to watch your sister's friend in action... with your sister... and your mum.
It's truly incredible what motivated girls can achieve with a few pineapples.
I'd say they're underpaid in fact.
No-one gives a fuck. They all take their orders from the tribe.
no one of them can tell Bank of England to stop a fraud, so it's the same old puppet of banksters...
So apparently even with Red, Blue, Orange, Green, and Yellow Teams, same shit.
You can have any government you like, as long as it's a socialist one...you do get to choose what colour tie they wear though.
Most of these puff forecasts display no understanding of UK politics or EU politics. They are all Pollyanna forecasts.
Labor is lead by a socialist extremist. The SNP are even more extreme and given the SNP has such a lock on Scotland, they are not stuck with a choice of either supporting a Labor government or getting a conservative one. If the numbers fall as currently expected, they can play havoc with the policies of a Labor government without actually voting to bring it down. If there is a Labor government with SNP support, the latter will have huge leverage over a government that will be extremely left in any case.
Thanks to Cameron and Clegg, the UK now has a law that says elections are held only every 5 years. The new Parliament can change that law, but if it is a very divided Parliament, as seems likely, the numbers may not be there to overturn the law and call a new election, despite what some of these commentators imagine.
Incidentally, the fundamentally undemocratic nature of the UK electoral system is clearly on display. Polls indicate UKIP will receive about 40% of the vote received by each of Labor and the Cons, yet get only about 1% of the seats won by each of those parties, and that the LibDems will get about half the votes of UKIP but win 8 times as many seats.
Baz it's LABOUR. I have to question therefore if you're an American Jock like Barry claimed American Irish. Now if Miliband is a socialist extremist then i'm Che Guevara. This said then i ABSOLUTELY AGREE with your last paragraph on VOTES CAST; AND hopefully UKIP will run an independent England, freeing up WALES & SCOTLAND.
With a name like Bazza he's most likely Australian. And here in the great land down under it is the Labor party. They were kind enough to remove the "u" so that you knew they didn't actually have anything to do with the labour force anymore.
Not that that stopped their sychophantic supporters from pretending otherwise.
The UK has been surviving on debt for some years now. Their ability to print and buy their own guilts has been a great help in extend and pretend. Banks are still not healed, though taxpayers plowed billions into some of them. While they claim economic growth, they still accumulate debt at an alarming rate. They have a full blown housing bubble, keeping millions from any hope of ever owning. Rents are rising, wages are falling, jobs are pure shit. But the trillions of pounds generated in the City of London financial engineering whore house keeps the 1% going strong.
I have listened to the political parties make their cases. Most are built on solid lies. Propaganda and pure foolishness. No matter who the people vote for, they are fucked. The real issues are not even mentioned. This is a campaign where all candidates are fighting to see who can give the 1% the most. Even UKIP is a party determined to hand over all income growth to the 1%.
No hope, no change. Just more lies. More debt. More bubbles. More illegal immigrants. UK, the clock is ticking, your collapse is baked into the cake.
Spot on Jack. I'm just not sure about the economic growth thingy.
Seems to me UK growth is almost entirely due to (a) the Cameron/Osborne manufactured housing bubble, (b) a huge spending spree by people with financial compensation from banks for the PPI mis-selling scandal, about GBP 21 billion so far, and (c) major changes made to personal pensions by Osborne effective 6th April whereby people can pull their complete fund out and spend it. Sales of Maseratis and Porsche are expected to rise.
The result will definitely be a pusilanimous, lying government under foreign control.
Welcome to Eire, mates.
Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Voting is insanity.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission.
"Voting, where there is always a 'Whammy' waiting."
"...almost certain to be a hung parliament"
This is my wish. I'll happily supply the rope and piano wire.
The best thing for Brits is not to vote at all. Please show the 'empty suit' Cameron and 'empty head' Miliband what you really think of the political filth in Westminster.
Not voting achieves nothing. You get recorded as too stupid to vote. If you want to say fuck the establishment you need to vote for the party that wants to burn down the vested interests and change the system. That party is UKIP. It wants to scrap the EU and it aristocracy. Scrap the appointed House of Lords. Change from the cheating First past post system to proportional system. Hold a bonfire of nanny state regulations. Ukip arn't perfect but they are the only route to change. Not voting is sticking your head up your arse. Voting for the old parties is voting for them to keep their dicks in your arse.
UKIP is the only party thats said anything sensible on the UKs debt situation, its tempered that with loads of other bollocks about immigrants causing traffic and the NHS's billion pound financial black hole having more to do with a handful of HIV riddled immigrants than an ageing post-war population.
Farage has been in politics for 18 years, and is much part of the problem as the rest of them.
If Farage really wants to "burn down the vested interests and change the system" as you say, he shouldn't be so naive as to think it can be done from within Westminster. No way.
If he promised a proper written Constitution and Bill of Rights, drafted on behalf of the people, for the people and owned by the people, then we can talk business. THAT is the only thing which will change Britain and return liberty to the people.
Absent that, he's just another daydreamer who wants to get his own way.
It won't matter which wins Conservative or Labour.
Both parties are virtually the same.
Neo liberal and neo con.
Tissue paper between them - Tweedledee and Tweedledumber.
Cameron called himself - heir to Blair - Miliband will be heir to Cameron if he wins.
The Lib Dems will lose seats but the Tories hope for enough to form another God forsaken bloody awful coalition.
British politics is a disgrace.
The only opposition party is UKIP. The only honest party is UKIP. The only party for the people is UKIP.
The tribe/city rule the rest.
The system of First Past the Post stitches up the election.
In the election for MEPs (Members of the EU Parliament) the anti EU party - UKIP won the day - but that is held under Proportional representation.
If we had PR - which must come in -the present system is a travesty - they UKIP- now the third party - would get over 100 seats.
But because of the FPTP system and the stitched up boundaries creating 'safe' untouchable seats for the tories/labour - UKIP could get 15% or more of the vote - 3,000,000 or far more votes and walk away with three seats.
That is a sham of a democracy.
Basically the election in Britain is a total travesty.
No one disputes that the only people who elect a government in Britain are a handful of people in a handful of marginal seats that could swing either way.
The horrific thing is that many of those marginals are now dominated by islamics and other immigrants.
The islamics even tried to hold 30 of them up for auction between the two main parties.
The very worst thing is that with a MASSIVELY growing islamic poulation from never ending islamic immigration - they flood in tens of thousands trained jihdis as a fith column among them and a huge birthrate subsidised by the british taxpayer - unless we have PR by the next election in 2020 - islam will certainly choose the government then.
Enoch POwell predicted blood in the streets of Britain.
Its coming. When they decide to move and the word comes to speed up the process there are 100,000 islamic killers ready to strike and remember we Brits are allowed no guns.
And millions more of them across Europe ready for the European caliphate.
Suicide imposed on the European people by crazy neo liberal bigots and fanatics.
We in UKIP have worked our socks off.
But just watch the system of FPTP with its untouchable safe seats cheat us.
Where there is PR in the regional Parliaments of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales PR has allowed the newer parties to get a chance - hence the rise of the SNP in Scotland which are a nationalist party - wanting Scots independence - to predominate.
But that can't happen in England.
The English are denied a parliament and equality with other people of the UK.
Why because UKIP would be its governent - just as they won the the Euro elections.
This election is a total sham - folks.
We have no democracy.
The tribe, its ownership and domination of the media, the three main parties and money sees to that.
Our biggest hope is the north of England where there is huge disillusionment with Labour by the working working class.
But you will probably see UKIP 'safely' for the establishment in second place across the north to labour and second place to the Tories across the south.
Second place gets you nothing
If the empty head Miliband gets the chance of forming a government, he will deviously renege on his frequent assertion "not to do a deal with the SNP to become Prime Minister" and actually do a deal. England will then suffer the misery of being indirectly governed by a bunch of Marxist Scottish politicians.
Miliband, the son of a Jewish Marxist immigrant, will be in clover.
And I'm still watching to see if Gordoom Brown decides to join the SNP and bully his way back into UK politics to create some more wreckage.
Brown is a cock-sucking preacher's son and a masonic/temple turd who offended the Scots more than the English. NO FUCKING WAY COULD HE ENTER THE SNP AND THE SNP HAVE ANY CREDIBILITY. It would be like BLAIR returning to Labour after destroying everything it was meant to stand for.
As for your Marxist label, that's KIDS stuff.
A DisUnited Kingdom would be BEST FOR ALL CONCERNED.
You Take the High Road an' a' that!
THe party that can change things is the SNP ,it will not support a conservitive gov. and can pull a labour one to the left. It is Britains only hope for change with policies like less austerity and the non renewal of the trident system.The referendum envigorated a public with politics and has shown them what propoganda can do.The establishment can only cry wolf so many times before it is ignored by the majority of people.
With propoganda being ignored in Scotland,England is showered with stories demonizing the SNP trying to turn voters away from labour.All the time in power in Scotland the SNP have balanced the books,its about time Britain did the same.Banks and multinationals control the gov.and media in Britain,its time that they started paying their way.
This ranting about muslims is a red herring the real problem is the banks ,they got all the money from the people and want to pretend someone else is the problem.Most muslims, like most of us want peace and happiness which they cant get because the civilized countries keep starting wars with them and murdering innocents on a daily basis.
I concur
I have no wish to see SNP playing any part in English politics (not that it would make any difference as I am fully aware Governments are only puppets for the Windsors, the Rothschilds, the Vatican et al).
They lost any respect I had for them when they overwhelmingly stated their allegiance to The Bank of England and wanting to keep the GBP.
They missed a one time opportunity to free Scotland and establish their OWN currency in their own Country, and incorporate themselves for their own sakes.
Politicians are not only liars - Poly (many) Tics (lies), they are also dumb.
I truly believe very few people understand how the world is run in that everything, every Country and everyone is incorporated! (big sigh).
Absolutely spot on Mog, but while the sheeple keep letting themselves be herded into to the pen, the same shit will keep happening. Zero chance of any kind of revolution in the U.K. Too busy watching x-factor and Jeremy Kyle...Fuck 'em.
'Every country gets the government it deserves.'
There are several "worst case scenarios" available in this UK election:
- Empty suit Cameron wins enough seats to get first bite at forming a new coalition government. We will then have another five years of his complete bollix and bullshit coupled to fake growth and more taxation to fund government's addiction to spending. Add to that the re-introduction of "the snoopers charter" which he promised never to introduce. etc etc etc. IOW: a complete disaster.
- Empty head Miliband gets the chance and does a dirty deal with the Scottish SNP who will hold him to ransom and effectively dictate government policy which will include demanding "moar" money for the Scots from English taxpayers. Relations with the EU will be ramped up in persuit of their dream of spreading International Socialism. etc etc etc. IOW: a complete disaster.
Whoever wins, ZIRP, NIRP, QE, bank bail-ins, GCHQ illegal spying and Met Police out-of-control behaviour will continue unabated because it is not our elected politicians who actually run the Government Machine but unelected, faceless, nameless men in gray suits behind the curtains.
As "mog" says, Farage and UKIP won't get a look-in.
"Relations with the EU will be ramped up in persuit of their dream of spreading International Socialism "
well, yes, the UK Labour party does have relations. Our darling leftists have ties with each other, visit their respective conventions, talk to each other
some of those ties are even personal and familial. take, for example, the Prime_Minister_of_Denmark, Ms Helle_Thorning-Schmidt. That's the lady that became famous for that selfie with Cameron and Obama at the "funeral remembrance party" for Mandela in that stadion in SA. She started as a Member of the European Parliament (like our friend Nigel Farage, btw) and also married the son of Mr. Neil_Kinnock, a former British MP, former leader of the British Labour and former EU Commissioner for Transport, now Lord Kinnock
but there I must say I'm quite tired of this Anglo-American streak of screaming and running in circles everytime a socialist shows up. yes, they are on the left. yes, they work together
but would this not mean that conservatives and liberals would have to work together, too? or at least... talk?
and this is where Cameron... threw a spanner in the works. because the British Conservatives, the party he leads, used to talk and work together with all the other conservative parties on the continent
but Mr. Cameron found that he had to take Tory out of the European_People's_Party's conventions, EP fraction, it's Small and Medium Enterprises organization SME_Europe and so on
meaning, among other things, that Tory had no say at all when the European Conservative Convention in Dublin discussed who should be their lead candidate for the EU Commission leadership
I'm not the only one that is tired of this British conservative "there is no continent at our door step, close your eyes" attitude of moaning endlessly but not being willing to even talk... even when it comes to constrast socialist ideas about the EU
the Conservative Southern Englishman is at loggerheads with: 1) British Socialists; 2) Northern Englishmen; 3) Scottish Nationalists; 4) European Socialists and 5) European Conservatives
in short, the the Conservative Southern Englishman is at loggerheads with everybody that is not Conservative & (Southern) English, in Europe
fine for me, but moaning that European Socialists talk and work together... and those talks are extended to Scots, who are pro-EU, generally speaking... well, I find it... childish
having said that, it's wrong. British Labour has nearly as many EU-skeptics as EU-philes. The difference is only in the willingness to talk with Continentals, and work on some issues
if Conservative Southern Englishmen would really care about contrasting "the spread of International Socialism" in key areas of British Interest, to which the EU belongs...
... then I would expect Conservative British leaders like Cameron to at least talk with their conservative counterparts on the continent, and work against the socialists
instead, what we get is a kind of MSM-supported "conspiracy of silence", depicting the european continent as a hopeless socialist-infested Terra Incognita... a bandvagon on which Commonwealth and American Media happily jump in
leading to such things like the conviction that Juncker, for example, is a socialist, instead of the candidate of the european conservatives
you too, can't find even one inch of liberalism and/or conservativism in anything connected with the Continent. even your avatar shows that. why?
(sometimes, I think that the answer is in your Southern English vision of a globalized world... that has no place for other, foreign conservatives or liberals)
"As "mog" says, Farage and UKIP won't get a look-in."
Mr. Nigel Farage, the leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party, leads a party that is fundamentally euro-skeptic, and wishes for the British exit from the EU
nevertheless, his greatest electoral victories are in the European Parliament, which is elected with a proportional electoral system, as usual in all non-UK countries in Europe
his biggest hurdle in the UK is the British electoral system, based on that strange - for continentals - electoral system aka FPTP, aka "the first takes it all, screw the rest"
nevertheless, I did not hear him ever complaining... or ask for change. where are the UKIPpers that ask for a proportional electoral system? "mog", up there... is not representative
Farage might be euro-skeptic, but I am very Farage-skeptic. I get the general impression that he prefers to win seats in the Parliament he abhors and keep out of the Parliament he is supposed to like
meanwhile, "mog" rails against the "European caliphate". sorry, mog, but it's not the EU where your Muslims come from
if the UK exits the EU, you would get less Polish immigrants, for example. but your home-grown British Muslims would still be there
mog" rails against the "European caliphate"
No.
Mog rails against the threat and the imposing of a European Caliphate as planned, by the infiltration of hundreds of thousands of trained islamic jihadis taking place now.
I too have many doubts about Farage, many relating to "who" actually governs Britain and "what" could HE do about it if he won an election and got into government..
As I have said the giant government machine - which has gone out of control and is now preying and spying on its own citizens - is not owned or run by elected politicians but The Greater Establishment made up of unelected, (often) nameless and faceless people in gray suits and frocks. Elected politicians are just a public front or if you prefer "the interface" for that giant machine to deceive the British people into thinking that democracy works, when it patently does not. Very little changes whoever wins the general elections.
No anti-liberty laws get repealed by the CONservatives when they get into office. Neither major party has taken one single action to prosecute the criminals running the banking system. Quite the opposite in fact, they have introduced "bail-ins" to steal money from citizens to pour into the bottomless trough called the "banking system".
"Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."
so let's have a final look at the United Kingdom
four Nations: Northern Ireland, England, Scotland, Wales... and, inofficially, Greater London, de jure part of England, de facto a small country for itself
generally speaking, which British Nations are pro-EU? Scotland and Greater London
to the point that if England would ever drag the UK out of the EU... Scotland would possibly want to rejoin... and Greater London might even want to exit England, possibly exit the UK, and rejoin the EU
why? well, reasons are endless, and complex. but it starts with the fact that Greater London is a global and cosmopolitan megacity, full of people from every nationality, creed, socio-economic status, etc.
just saying
Not bad Ghordo but Northern Ireland is NOT a Nation.
Greater London is not a nation and there are plenty of people in this part who are anti-EU. I think you actually mean The City of London which is generally pro-EU because of its prominent position in financial services - which is doen't want to lose - and allegedly the world's largest money-laundering centre.
Soap-Opera sideshow, if elections influenced anything they would have been banned.
Deutsche Bank . . derail the recovery????????????
That's RICH. What fucking RECOVERY are DB talking about. Maybe the same recovery as in the USSA from the CNBC post yesterday.
All of the enlightened are voting UKIP over here. Don't believe the Polls they are all fake to try to stop the UKIP vote.
We have a fight for sovereignty, a fight to exit the EU!
It's a sad world where the sovereign will of the people matters less than the results of elections on markets.
On markets, for the Lord's sake! Wake up, who gives a fuck what the markets think?
Err, re figure 6 ... there is nothing "progressive" about the UK labour party. They want to take the country back to the 1970s
Listen
It says everything when the NSA finance GCHQ New Headquarters. Nuff said.
Each voter voting UKIP only gets 1 /80th of the return that each Scottish SNP voter may get in MP numbers - 12 million UKIP's v 1.6 Million SNP voters, 2 seats for the one 57 for the SNP.
I feel for you Q-Q-Q but i hope your not begrudging the Scots making their own decisions.
It's the old 2 party system of Big Winners and slightly lesser Big Winners, just like in the USSA.
What beats me is how the Tories and Labour can Cherry Pick Candidates for Seats. Surely if you represent say Nottingham the MP must be a local lad/lass. What are these local constituents/selection committees thinking about? Like in the USSA those congress critters hold Surgeries twice a year. If they were local then you would have access to them weekly to air grievances.
Another observation is that far too many of these MP's are from Public Schools/ OxBridge and understand next to Sweet Fuck All regarding local/ working peoples issues/problems.
Best solution is Devolution which terrifies Tories/Labour/BankCorp. Would love to see Nigel pissing on the English Parliament like he does in Brussels.