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There Will Be No 25-Year Depression

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Bill Bonner

Good and Bad News

Today, we have bad news and good news. The good news is that there will be no 25-year recession. Nor will there be a depression that will last the rest of our lifetimes.

The bad news: It will be much worse than that. On Monday, the Dow rose another 43 points. Gold seems to be working its way back to the $1,200 level, where it feels most comfortable.

“A long depression” has been much discussed in the financial press. Several economists are predicting many years of sluggish or negative growth. It is the obvious consequence of several overlapping trends and existing conditions.

 

Brooklyn Daily Eagle Front Page

Newspaper from October 24 1929, a.k.a. “Black Thursday” – at this point, the panic had just begun with the market losing 11% in one day. On the next two trading days (Friday and Saturday – at the time, the market was open on Saturdays) the market rebounded slightly, then came “Black Monday” and “Black Tuesday”, which erased all doubt about the seriousness of the situation

 

 

Old People Are Dead Wood

First, people are getting older. Especially in Europe and Japan, but also in China, Russia and the US. As we’ve described many times, as people get older, they change. They stop producing and begin consuming.

They are no longer the dynamic innovators and eager early adopters of their youth; they become the old dogs who won’t learn new tricks.

Nor are they the green and growing timber of a healthy economy; instead, they become dead wood. There’s nothing wrong with growing old.

There’s nothing wrong with dying either, at least from a philosophical point of view. But it’s not going to increase auto sales or boost incomes – except for the undertakers.

 

undertakers-horse

Mr. Hislop is looking forward to booming business

Photo credit: State Library of Queensland

 

The Cure for Debt? More Debt!

Second, most large economies are deeply in debt. The increase in debt levels began after World War II and sped up after the money system changed in 1968-71.

By 2007, US consumers reached what was probably “peak debt.” That is, they couldn’t continue to borrow and spend as they had for the previous half a century. Most of their debt was mortgage debt, and the price of housing was falling.

The feds reacted, as they always do… inappropriately. They tried to cure a debt problem with more debt. But consumers were both unwilling and unable to borrow. Their incomes and their collateral were going down. This left corporations and government to aim only for their own toes.

Central banks created more money and credit – trillions of dollars of it. But since the household sector wasn’t borrowing, the money went into financial assets and zombie government spending.

Neither provided any significant support for wages or output. So, the real economy went soft, even as the cost of credit fell to its lowest levels in history.

 

Fed assets

In order to revive the credit creation machinery, the Fed has monetized incredible amounts of debt, via Saint Louis Federal Reserve Research. With the end of QE 3, its balance sheet has begun to subtly decline … click to enlarge.

 

The Cronies Are in Control

Third, the developed economies have been zombified. The US, for example, is way down at No. 46 on the World Bank’s list of places where it is easiest to start a new business. And only one G8 country – Canada – even makes the top 10.

 

cronies

How to get ahead in the world of today….

Cartoon by Stahler

 

Paperwork. Expenses. Regulation. High taxes. High labor rates. Entrenched competition with aging, loyal customers. All are endemic from Boston to Berlin to Beijing.

Leading industries – heavily controlled and regulated, including defense, education, health and finance – are practically arms of the government. All are protected with high barriers to entry and low expectations. Competition is barely tolerated. Innovation is discouraged. Mistakes are forgiven and reimbursed.

Meanwhile, the masses are encouraged to become zombies too, with generous rewards for those who 1) do nothing, 2) pretend to work or 3) prevent other people from doing anything. After all the zombies, cronies and connivers get their money, there is little left for the productive economy.

 

Crony-Capitalism-Pyramid

How it all works in crony heaven – until it doesn’t anymore – via bastiatinstitute.org

 

The Solution Begins When Markets Crack

Typically, these problems – too much debt, too many zombies, and too many old people – lead to financial crises. Then, they are “solved” by either inflation or depression. And the solution begins when markets crack.

Markets never go up forever. Instead, they go up, down and even sideways. They breathe in and out. And after sucking in air for the last 30 years, US financial assets are ready to exhale. Legendary asset manager Bill Gross comments:

“When does our credit-based financial system sputter/break down? When investable assets pose too much risk for too little return. Not immediately, but at the margin, credit and stocks begin to be exchanged for figurative and sometimes literal money in a mattress.”

When that happens, problems begin to take care of themselves, in one of two ways…

A quick, sharp depression wipes out the value of credit claims. Borrowers go broke. Bonds expire worthless. Companies declare bankruptcy. The whole capital structure tends to get marked down as debts are written off and financial assets of all kinds lose their value.

Or, under pressure, the feds print money. Debts are diminished as the currency loses its value. The zombies still get money, but it is worth less. Inflation adjustments cannot keep up with high rates of inflation. Pensions, prices and promises fade. Either way, the slate is wiped clean and a new cycle can begin. But what rag will clean the slate now? Stay tuned…

 

zombies-cementerio

You knew there would eventually be a picture of the living dead.

 

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Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:07 | 6066043 phoenixdark
phoenixdark's picture

no your wrong. those people will be in the islands enjoying there plunder.  Laughing. 

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:27 | 6066119 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

no you're wrong.  They will be on floating cities where no landlubber can reach them.

 

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/06/21/article-0-13B2D4E3000005DC-116...

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 10:55 | 6065724 Spungo
Spungo's picture

I have two balls and both are crystal. They make a clicking noise when I run.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:05 | 6066234 813kml
813kml's picture

You should get that checked, might just be kidney stones.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:08 | 6066455 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Stop running

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 11:03 | 6065766 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Actually being in the funeral business is tough and if you don't have a crematorium you are going to be out of business in 5 years as more and more people are forced to go that route for economical reasons for burials.  It is only $500-$700 to cremate someone vs at least $6-$7k for a traditional funderal and casket.  

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 11:42 | 6065931 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

I have often wondered why the 'deluxe' caskets get buried.  It would seem to make more sense to be buried in a pine box.  If they had a fancy casket that wrapped around a plain pine box it would be easy to actually hold all the pre-burial stuff with a pretty wrap around casket, but once they body was lowered into the grave you could pull a pin and raise the fancy casket -- leaving just the pine box in the hole.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:16 | 6066073 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Ha ha.  I can imagine the ten-million-dollar lawsuit: "The horror!  They held the memorial service with mom in a previously used casket!"

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:11 | 6066250 813kml
813kml's picture

Even crematoriums will fall on hard times when Shrillary is elected Prez, most Boomers will spontaneously combust.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 11:07 | 6065794 rejected
rejected's picture

I like Bill, he's an oldster too, but his argument concerning the dying wood is wholly incorrect. The economy was killed by the globalist corporations and heads of government in DC seeking a low wage and zero environmental requirements for production. This was accomplished via the trade acts and is still ongoing. Trans Pacific will make the others seem trivial.

Once the middle income production was gone the economy shriveled to almost nothing. This was overcome by the introduction of cheap credit. (Debt). Americans, and their government,  were able to borrow to keep the spending spree going. This too is slowly disappearing for Americans as they don't have the income (now in decline) or the collateral to continue.

The lack of production, the huge increase in debt does not bode well for tax revenues. Since government could not afford the wars and the ever increasing domestic expenditures they raided the Social Security funds and  went off the metals money system. Their enormous borrowing pushed the debt so high that they had to lower the interest rates but at the time had no real excuse for doing so.

Enter 2007/2008

Since government had forced the banks to loan to individuals that were unlikely to repay the debt it was easy peezy to set up the crash. This accomplished a twofer: 1) It allowed them to literally print money in the form of credit (QE) and 2) gave them the excuse to lower the interest rates. 

Had they not acted so irresponsibly none of this would have happened and there would be no talk of dead wood. Social Security like all Insurance ponzi schemes requires an inflow to match outflow. If one takes out a insurance policy on their home and ten years later it burns to the ground the $30,000 dollars paid in premiums comes nowhere close to funding the $170,000 home. Others paying their premiums are footing the bill. Also back in the day the insurance companies could invest in supposedly secure bonds to further assist the funding. These companies are now, like everyone else, having to invest in the stock market for a decent return. Of course like everything else, this cannot last either. 

In short, It's over folks. What we have now are the government agencies and elected officials deflecting their irresponsible acts by inciting infighting among the different groups for scarce resources. Old against young. Black against white. Brown against white. Women against men and so on.

Old people are a fact of life. Nobody can escape age and death. Blaming everything on oldsters or any other group while giving the real culprit (government) a pass is wrong.

Always remember who the enemy is.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:24 | 6066108 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

"Nobody can escape death"??

Hillary Rodman clinton has.  Just like all vampires. 

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:33 | 6066319 Elliott Eldrich
Elliott Eldrich's picture

Hillary? What about David Rockefeller? That guy is 99 freakin' years old, and still moving. Or Henry Kissinger, he's a relatively youthful 91 by comparison, and he just keeps going and going. Hillary is a piker by those standards, and believe me, I'm about the farthest thing from a fan of Hillary you're going to find. 

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 11:14 | 6065823 Hans117
Hans117's picture

The three G's. Guns, Gold, and Groceries.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 11:41 | 6065920 JessieSharpton
JessieSharpton's picture

-Yawn-

This gloom porn is old.

We have the ability to make our lives better than anyone who ever lived on this planet and you schmucks are talking about zombies and the road.

You people are already dead.

Its all so.....semitic, if you think about it.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:22 | 6066099 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

I'm thinkin' about it and I don't get the 'semitic' thing.  Would like to know.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 11:48 | 6065955 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

But we will then all be resurected in cyberspace where we can bitch forever.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 11:48 | 6065959 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

You do not want to be old and dependent in the future...  It's tough enough today, since they have wiped out the interest on your savings, and have adjusted and re-adjusted the inflation calculation to underpay your Social Security checks.

This is from the Native American culture, but this could be the future of modern old people:

"Occasionally, old people who could not keep up with the group or who could no longer produce their share of the food supply were abandoned."

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:20 | 6066092 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

...I'm planning a one-way trip to Alaska in my dotage to sit out on a glacier, or ice floe, and just quietly freeze to death. 

Either that or a Viking funeral, wherein my body will be embedded in live pine, or spruce branches,  put on a boat, floated out on to the ocean enough yards from shore, then an Indian with a great aim will fire a flaming arrow at the funerl pyre. 

Fire or Ice. That's the ticket. 

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:05 | 6066235 Sambo
Sambo's picture

Interesting thought...

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:26 | 6066292 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

Expect a no-knock raid from the EPA.

Best to send your dog over to the neighbors.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:24 | 6066758 centerline
centerline's picture

damn that was funny.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 11:49 | 6065962 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Stop and think for a moment...  Can you imagine the result of any sort of (prolonged) distribution-chain delay or even Failure in major metropolitan areas of the U.S. for food & gasoline/diesel...?

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 11:52 | 6065977 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

the economy is the victim of evolution. we have a dodo bird economy (run by ninnies) all economies are built on nationalism, the respect for arbitrary borders, lines separating cultures and societies which long ago were one (isreal and palestine) or which have become indistinguishable (mexico and the us) dia de los muertos is zombie apocalypse. the NSA wants to spy on you, but you no longer have a job and therefor you have no SSN. you long ago gave up driving, so you have no license. you no longer make enough money to pay taxes, you dont bother to file. you live off the grid, (solar panels, rainwater, you dont have a car and probably not even a driveway or a street address. you keep a post office box. amazon drops packages to your gps coordinates.  who are they spying on? now bernanke wants to retire cash as a store of value, how are ouing to print money BB? when it has no store of value. the system will close, only an asset can be exchanged for another asset. what assets does the government have? (damn few)

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:14 | 6066075 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

Drop the "t" and you are dead wrong.  100% of them are that.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:01 | 6066015 phoenixdark
phoenixdark's picture

Las vegas  Everywhere you look there building.

New hozing developments opening and heavy earth movers making way for 1000's more track homezes. some homes built on lest than .10 of an acre. 

I assume same same happening in phoenix, so cal, washington state.

People don't believe the ZH confirmation bias.

   Happy days are here again. 

AWESOME

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:20 | 6066095 L Bean
L Bean's picture

United States of Potemkin.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:36 | 6066552 firewolfsblog
firewolfsblog's picture

If the Chinese have taught us anything, it's that we can build entire ghost cities, and none the wiser.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:28 | 6066776 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

This is the center piece of optimism at the tail end of a boom in central Florida.  It has been a money pit for the last 60 years.  Just because you build it does not mean they will come.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harder_Hall

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:16 | 6066046 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

I've been in a 25 Year Depression ever since my first sighting of "H".

Can't be any more specific as my therapist has forbidden me to even say the ogress' name.

(Doesn't stop me from giving a hint thou: Crusty, Rancid Pantsuit)

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:11 | 6066059 Kilobar
Kilobar's picture

It's going to be late-1970's style inflation all over again, with a dose of civil unrest. They expand government until it is unsustainable then *pop*, another inflationary reset that screws over wage earners. Rinse and repeat ever few decades. Time to put another floor safe in the basement and fill it full of Eagles and 1 oz bars.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:25 | 6066110 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

I think we can dispell with the notion that printing money dimishes debt.  All the printed money is debt.  The only thing that will reduce the debt is to pay it off, or to simply wipe it off the books.  But nowadays there isn't enough money available to make the interest payments The Powers That Be engineeered for themselves, so they create new debt to cover what's owed to them.  It really is just simple mathmatics hidden behind the cloak of secrecy and graft of Wall St and the Federal Reserve.  

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:25 | 6066769 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

Are you implying the possibility of an official devaluation of the dollar?

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 20:55 | 6067628 Grosvenor Pkwy
Grosvenor Pkwy's picture

If the U.S. Mint eliminated pennies, nickels, and dimes, and replaced paper one-dollar bills with coins, it would be an effective 25:1 devaluation of the dollar. No need to change any book values.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:27 | 6066121 Ms No
Ms No's picture

I always try to error on the side of positivity but I can't help but feel that there is no escaping this.  Buying metals, moving to Costa Rica, Panama, Alaska, New Zealand and all of the things people are trying to do to flee the murderous thieving horde of psychopaths in control.  Bottom line is, our backs are against the wall globally.  There is no running, everyone is being forced to make a choice.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 12:34 | 6066147 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

If ya dont like the game? Stop playing it.

 Now that we are this near the end of it and you can see how its going to turn out?

 The other choice is the global stall. We do have a say in this. Do it yourself. For yourself and the other good and honest people you care about. Stall this bitch. Before we go any futher down this road get some answers and some justice. We need to stop asking for justice and demand nothing less than real justice. 

 Ask yourself this. Have you been wronged?

 That said. This plan of theirs is stupid. It leads to vigalanty justice on a scale that will scare the shit out of everyone.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:50 | 6066392 atthelake
atthelake's picture

Americans do not have the backbone or the stomach for vigilante justice. Europe, maybe. America? Never happen.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:02 | 6066666 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

Most americans still have this  ''my country right or wrong attitude'' and will walk into FEMA camps thinking it must be best for the country.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:23 | 6066753 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

Maybe where you live but your sweeping indictment is inaccurate. There are plenty of places in America I am familiar with that can't wait for the chance.

I presume you don't get around much.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:54 | 6066837 atthelake
atthelake's picture

What's stopping them? Nothing. Waiting for a chance? Nothing is stopping them. Nothing. Do it or shut up.

Harming cops and politicians solves nothing.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:31 | 6066311 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

BILL BONNER, how old are you?

BILL BONNER, what is new, and therefore what is productive, in this article?

1. Governments are in debt for three reasons:

(1) neo-Keynesians have taken over the governments;

(2) global population has exploded;

(3) the rich can't make themselves quit starting wars against the rich in other countries, said wars paid for, not by the rich, but by the middle-class taxpayers.  (And why SHOULD the rich stop their wars, as long as they aren't the ones having to pay for their wars.)

2. Solutions:

(1) vote.  especially in primary elections and local elections;

(2) always vote for the most financially-responsible candidate, which will be the non-neo-Keynesian candidate, which will be the candidate your local newspaper descrbes as "crazy" or "inexperienced" or "unproven";

(2) stop giving your money to people just for having more children.  People are NOT the resource.  The planet is the resource.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:33 | 6066320 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

"defense, education, health and finance – are practically arms of the government. All are protected with high barriers to entry and low expectations."

These are some of the economy's greatest problems since these represent most economic activity. Visit any major city, what do you see as the drivers of employment? Schools, Hospitals/clinics, Banks, private industry tied to the military industrial/spy complex. It's that simple, good old weath producing industry is nearly dead.

As usual, the author blames humans for being mortal. He is full of shit. If capitalism can not deal and adapt to human aging, then capitalism is a failed system. Oh, author, do you plan on staying young? Good luck mate!  We age, we grow old, we die, we all do. Or does the new capitalist utopia require killing off the DEAD WOOD, when they hit 65 perhaps?  Real capitalism solves aging by allowing people to work as long as they want. I have no intention of retirement. I can retire from my day job now, but have already started a small business to keep me working and earning for a long time to come.

If your style of capitalism is unable to cope with human aging, then your capitalism is as fucked up as communism was.

Does business and industry exist to serve human needs? Or do we humans exist to serve some 1%'ers need for ever more profit?

Profit is good, too much profit kills the fucking markets. How hard is that for some fucking Twats to understand.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:35 | 6066328 Shirley Swanepoel
Shirley Swanepoel's picture

Break it up already.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:38 | 6066343 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

you say you want a revolution?

http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraine-donetsk-republic-nationalizes-banks...

Stop waiting for permission....

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:58 | 6066420 atthelake
atthelake's picture

Harming cops and politicians solves nothing. They are, just, the lackys.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:17 | 6066717 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

A lackey's gun kills just as dead.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:50 | 6066393 newsoutlet
newsoutlet's picture

 

‘Crimea Today – Rome Tomorrow!’ — a photo from Russia

 

The non-stop drumbeat of chauvinism and alleged superiority of Russia coming from the top of the Kremlin and amplified by the Russian media has been resonating with the Russian populace and creating horrific visions of the future for the entire world, the visions where Russia is an all-powerful global aggressor and the world is bent to Putin’s power.

An especially poignant and unmasked example of this effect is the banner ostensibly commemorating the World War II Victory, in the above photograph. The banner says: “Crimea Today – Rome Tomorrow! Happy Great Victory Day of May 9!” The idea of connecting the Allied Victory in the World War II  with Hitler-like Anschluss of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula by Putin’s military is sacrilegious to the spirit of the allied sacrifice, but extending it to call for a continued aggression toward other European countries is unthinkable. But it is “thinkable” in Russia!

The words “Crimea” and “Rome” rhyme in Russian, the slogan is short and catchy. The banner is huge and is placed along of a well-traveled city road. Someone clearly expended significant marketing effort and money to devise, design, manufacture and place it.

This banner is located in the Russian provincial city of Kaluga, which is about 100 miles (180 km) from Moscow. It is part of a series of celebratory banners including the one in the photograph below, which displays victorious battles of the Moscow Princedom, Russian Imperial and Soviet armies over the history. This banner would not be surprising, if it also did not include the Battle of Debaltseve in Ukraine with the Russian army’s supposed “victory” dated 19 February, 2015.

While talking into TV cameras for international audiences, Putin insists that Russian army is not fighting Ukraine in Donbas, this propaganda effort targeting Russian domestic audience clearly states otherwise.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:09 | 6066452 newsoutlet
newsoutlet's picture

Russia Today, Sputnik, globalresearch.ca, Rossija24, LifeNEWS (rus version), Pravda - are all putin regime propaganda assets.

That story as others are based on nothing more than imagination and lies.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:41 | 6066567 Lin S
Lin S's picture

Funny, that's how I see the excement you post here.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:58 | 6066656 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

Hope you and your one goddam brain cell that is on life support recover soon./

 

You are a funny fucktard.  pushing your bullshit LIES here.

I bet you have never been outside of your COUNTY much less COUNTRY.

I also bet you are spawn of a crack whore cunt mother and meth head father(s).

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 20:25 | 6067562 gangstaculture
gangstaculture's picture

please tell us who pays you for all your efforts newsoutlet.........

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:57 | 6066648 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

Hey you goddam fucktard Nazi son of a bitch.  Try blowing your smoke up someone else's ass.

 

Thu, 05/07/2015 - 04:41 | 6068369 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

you keep reposting spam from woo-woo and UFO/Elvis sighted! sites

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 13:58 | 6066419 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

The idiots will stall out the economy all on their own, and nothing they do will fix it.

The only way to keep the Ponzi going is to issue more debt. Lots of it. Problem is, fewer and fewer folks WANT any more loans. Interest rates are irrelevant...it doesn't matter WHAT price the loans carry, people simply DO NOT WANT to add more debt to their loads. Period.

The message seems to be "Never mind your fucking LOANS, just let me earn a damned LIVING on my OWN!"

People don't WANT to be beholden to someone else all the time. They want to earn their own way. They want salaries, not loans. For awhile they were content to accumulate debt, but now it's over.

But because TPTB were stupid and based their economy on DEBT, they are at a crisis point. If they cannot continue to GROW the debt, it will begin to pancake down upon itself taking the entire economy with it.

Debt does NOT have to be the basis for an economy, and there are other engines that can 'fire' it up and keep it running. And an economy doesn't have to grow all the time like a fucking cancer, it can follow the path of growth till maturity, then steady-state maintainance, adjusting slightly upwards or downwards with the demographics over time.

. But the morons chose THIS system (debt) because they wanted to grab everything as fast as possible, and that neat little 'compounding' trick blows those numbers up REAL good, REAL fast...Unfortunately they neglected to notice the self-destruct mechanism firmly attached to its side, where your economy crosses that 'compounding interest event horizon'  and  suddenly gets sucked into the black hole.

 

I'm curious as to how desperate they will GET to push more and more debt...The whole thing is kinda mesmerizing to watch, if you aren't very involved, like me. I fully expect to take some shrapnel when it blows, but I'm nowhere near ground zero, so I'm gonna try to enjoy the view.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 16:02 | 6066892 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

I agree with you. The Fiscal Policy of Federal govt and the Monetary policy of FED is about creating debt/credit.

And I can't fix it.

Looks to me like we have a very low Multiplier and low velocity of money. John Williams agrees with me on this, he uses the biggest measure of money and doesn't see velocity.

It is all coming to an END.

High 1981 of 3.5, today 1.35.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV

M1 Money Multiplier
2015-04-15: 0.723 Ratio (Already in Crash territory in 2000, fell off a cliff in 2008)
Bi-Weekly, Ending Wednesday, Seasonally Adjusted, MULT, Updated: 2015-04-23
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT

If you look at the Discontinued version you can see growth in the Ronald Reagan Era, but nothing after to compare.
M1 Money Multiplier (DISCONTINUED SERIES)

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:06 | 6066446 BenGazisurvivor
BenGazisurvivor's picture

Can we at least get one season of " brave new world " on syfy

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:10 | 6066461 newsoutlet
newsoutlet's picture
SBU: “Secret Report” Russian experts about “Boeing” is based on falsified images

(Translated from Russian by my Chrome browser)

Published on May 5 in the Russian media the results of investigation into the collapse of the Malaysian Boeing-777 in the Donetsk region are based on the pictures, which were fabricated by the General Staff of Russia. This was stated by the chief of counterintelligence department of defense the state’s interests in the sphere of information security SBU Vitaly Naida , transfersApostrophe.

According to Naidoo, the General Staff of Russia took four days to fabricate evidence, falsify satellite imagery, materials satellites spies to try to accuse Ukraine of possible involvement in the collapse of Boeing.

According to Naidoo, a comparative analysis of Russian space imagery data carried on digital satellite data. This so-called “Russian evidence” has many signs of forgery and retouching . In addition, some of these pictures was shot by Russian spy satellites at another time, long before the terrorist attack Boeing flight MH17 .

So, forgery was “satellite image” of the General Staff of the Russian Federation from the alleged July 14, 2014 in a separate radio technical battalion / h A-0194 near the village of Greenhouse Luhansk region.

 

READ MORE: http://toinformistoinfluence.com/

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:24 | 6066508 Flybyknight
Flybyknight's picture

What a load of shit. It was obvious MH17 was a US false flag due to the speed at which Obama Cameron and Abbot came out denouncing the Russians. Almost before it hit the ground. What prudent person would not wait for some investigation. ( Only rivalled for promptness by the BBC reporting Building 7 collapsing with it still standing in the background of their reporter)

The secrecy of the accident report, the bullet holes in the plane, the nondisclosure of the pilots autopsy,no doubt showing bullets, the non disclosure of American satelite evidence and the ongoing coverup prove that the CIA and Kiev did this and that you are a loathsome troll

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:15 | 6066481 newsoutlet
newsoutlet's picture
Putin Raises ‘Extremism’ Fines for Russian Media Tenfold

President Vladimir Putin signed legislation Saturday that will increase tenfold the maximum fine that can be levied on Russian news organizations accused of inciting extremism, raising fears of increased pressure on the country’s remaining independent media outlets.

The changes mean that Russia’s Internet watchdog, in conjunction with magistrate courts, can order news organizations to pay up to 1 million rubles ($19,000) for publishing material deemed to incite or justify terrorism or extremism. Previously, similar fines were restricted to between 50,000 and 100,000 rubles.

The new measure also gives the authorities the right to confiscate all copies of extremist material appearing in offline formats.

A lack of clarity over the legal definition of extremism means the new amendment “is open to abuse and arbitrary application,” said media law specialist Andrei Richter in comments to The Moscow Times on Monday.

The Kremlin has moved to tighten state control over Russia’s already heavily regulated media industry in recent years with the shuttering of more liberal news outlets, new restrictions on foreign ownership and the appointment of outspoken Kremlin loyalists to top media roles.

The amendment, which has been in the process of development for over a year, was first conceived in the wake of violent nationalist rioting in the Moscow suburb of Biryulyovo in 2013, Deputy Communications Minister Alexei Volin told business daily Vedomosti in December last year when the law was introduced in the Russian parliament.

“During its development we decided not to be limited to the interethnic aspects and use the wider concepts of terrorism and extremism,” Volin told Vedomosti.

The amendment was passed by Russia’s State Duma on April 25. Four days later it was approved by the Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament. Putin signed the measure into law on May 2, one day shy of World Press Freedom Day.

Lawmakers involved in the drafting of the bill said earlier this year that the new rules mean Internet and media watchdog Roskomnadzor will be able to impose fines rather than simply issuing official warnings, according to the RBC news website.

Extremism warnings have been handed out to news outlets critical of the Kremlin. In October, liberal radio station Ekho Moskvy was warned over a broadcast about accounts of fighting in eastern Ukraine and opposition Novaya Gazeta was cautioned over a piece the same month that compared policies of Russian lawmakers to those of Adolf Hitler.

Nineteen news organizations in Russia were warned over the reprinting of Muhammed caricatures by French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo, Roskomnadzor head Alexander Zharov said last week.

In accordance with Russia’s extremism laws, any media outlet that receives two written warnings within a year can have its media license revoked.

Some experts warned that the fines could be used in addition to shuttering news organizations. “There will be a double punishment: a ruble punishment in the form of an administrative fine and punishment in the form of an end to media activity,” the head of the Kremlin’s human right’s council Mikhail Fedotov told Business FM radio station Sunday. “Such things are impossible in a state that observes the rule of law.”

Critics also fear that large fines could be used to bankrupt news organizations that are run on tight budgets and are already suffering from sharp falls in advertising revenue linked to Russia’s economic crisis.

Experts pointed to ambiguities in the definition of extremism, which could be used by the authorities to exploit the legislation for their own ends and silence those critical of the current regime.

“The definition [of extremism] is vague and as such it was criticized by the Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Representative on Freedom of the Media, the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission… by Russia’s Presidential Council on Human Rights and indirectly by Russia’s Supreme Court,” Moscow State University’s Richter said in written comments.

Legally, extremism is defined as a call to change the constitutional order or a call for separatism, and is punishable by up to five years in prison. More than 600 sentences were handed down under extremism clauses last year, according to Business FM.

Despite concerns, the imposition of penalties under extremism legislation has ticked up.

Since December 2013, Roskomnadzor has had the power to close down websites without a court order.

About 4,500 websites were blocked in Russia in 2014 because of alleged extremist content, Roskomndazor’s head said last week. Blocked online platforms include the blog of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and Kremlin-hostile news website Grani.ru.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 20:23 | 6067558 gangstaculture
gangstaculture's picture

gee thanks for sharing that newsoutlet..........

........

Thu, 05/07/2015 - 04:40 | 6068364 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

exposed as a fake story planted by Ukraine agents...Looks like "newsoutlet" hired Brian Williams to write for them lol

Thu, 05/07/2015 - 04:39 | 6068365 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

exposed as a fake story planted by Ukraine agents...Looks like "newsoutlet" hired Brian Williams to write for them  lol

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:23 | 6066504 orez65
orez65's picture

"Old People Are Dead Wood"

Fu.k you sh.t head!

We got wisdom and capital.

Get your head out of your a.s hole.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:42 | 6066572 ChargingHandle
ChargingHandle's picture

Sometimes facts hurt. Wisdom does not pay taxes nor does it bolster growth/revenue for the globalist.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:59 | 6066658 Vooter
Vooter's picture

"Wisdom does not pay taxes nor does it bolster growth/revenue for the globalist."

Oh, well...sucks to be them, I guess!

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:08 | 6066678 Pitiful
Pitiful's picture

And zero prescience or care for the future after your death. 

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:18 | 6066723 JR
JR's picture

It’s hard to trust Bonner when his major demographic foundations are so completely erroneous.

“Old people,” as he calls it, are being surpassed in the culture and government handout business by a huge spike in the millennial population and an avalanche of Third world immigration.

It must be insulting to people who have worked their whole lives and contributed to America when Bonner labels them “dead wood” consumers. For goodness sake, the consuming they do is the fruit of their labors; would Bonner and the banker-controlled economy take that store of labor away? Oh wait – that’s exactly what they are doing.

For Bonner’s information, the millennial generation, 43% non-white, now outnumbers the baby boomer generation.

And Bonner totally misses the perpetrator of this massive wealth heist these past 100 years, including the Great Depression and two devastating world wars. If Bonner ignores the elephant in the room and refuses to get rid of the Federal Reserve System as his final his solution to how the “slate is wiped clean and a new cycle can being,” there may be no slate remaining on which a new cycle can begin.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:36 | 6066810 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

Bonners sceptical of the claims of American exceptionalism, and he considers the Fed a non-player of sorts. on the other hand he is critical of the political class (at whose pleasure dear fed leader serves) on the basic grounds by which men have always disliked politicians; corruption, kickbacks and rackateering [my terms] so there is nothing new under the sun, as far at Bonner's ramblings go, he has a taste for the exotic in investments, and personal wealth planning (he says move to Argentina because you can't trust the American government?) i have long ago pushed aside the expats, i think they are wrong and they will have trouble buying their way back into this country (Jim Rogers, et al) when the global depression hits.i wish i had enough money to thumb my nose at uncle and head for a caribeen tax shelter, but i dont, and besides as a veteran i would feel pretty sheepish ( after you pay your dues you are in the club)thats my take but i listen to all these guys, theyre smart, they live on easy street, and of course i dream about moving next door, but it aint gonna happen

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 16:17 | 6066952 JR
JR's picture

There’s one boss of this economy and it ain’t the people; it’s the Fed.

For Bonner to consider the “the Fed a non-player of sorts” is for Bonner to miss the target, grateful un. The Fed now owns the Congress, our representative government; it bought it. The derailment of the American system is coming from many quarters. But the symptoms stem from a central point, the Fed.

When a private bank owned by a syndicate of international bankers can create the currency out of nothing, in secret, establish its value for all debts and purchases, and then decide who will get massive infusions of this currency (their friends) and who will get nothing (many of those who receive nothing, of course, are robbed of what labor and production capacities that they have built), the resulting tragedy for America is that this money is going to buy power to be used against the people for the owners of the Fed and their puppets. The money buys the Congress, the political parties, the media, the military industrial complex, the justice system, the institutions and it sets in motion illegal immigration, the welfare society, the collapse of sovereignty and a thousand forces that rob and cheat the American people.

Money is the most controlling power force in the world and the U.S. Congress has put it in the hands of self-serving internationalists – the Fed. And for a few evil men to control the world’s superpower, unfortunately, means there is now no safe haven left in the world, grateful un. I share your problem.

As far as living next door to one of these oligarchy investors, consider the going price.  A man’s life is divided into two parts: his career and his own private life. Confuse their purpose, put too much emphasis on one and neglect the other, and the imbalance can destroy your happiness, your freedom and your country.

Thanks for your enlightening comment; I enjoyed it and for most part agree.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:33 | 6066534 newsoutlet
newsoutlet's picture
WW II veteran exposes Putin for the war in Ukraine


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2EdvWOdj4w

 

Kharkiv terrorists vow to kill Ukrainian civilians

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IF2SfFZAbec

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:36 | 6066554 Lin S
Lin S's picture

You should really change your name to propagandaoutlet.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:49 | 6066602 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

Putin is a real leader and a decent man, unlike a shit for brains fucktard like yourself.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:13 | 6066687 Circle of DNA
Circle of DNA's picture

Hey newsoutlet go eat some dog shit in your native Riga or whatever other hell hole you crawled out.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:22 | 6066741 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

Probably Langley and another govt paid agent posting bullshit.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 16:08 | 6066915 unemployed
unemployed's picture

Fracking Biden's son,  Kerry's stepson,  Pierre Omidyar or Eric Schmidt spook NGOs,  just who is killing reporters in the Ukraine?

http://www.newsweek.com/assange-google-not-what-it-seems-279447

 

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 20:20 | 6067553 gangstaculture
gangstaculture's picture

wtf zerohedge approved this account?!? 

great place to get your word out newsoutlet.........in the comments section of a totally unrelated zerohedge post .......genius!

Thu, 05/07/2015 - 04:35 | 6068359 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

Bullshit.  

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:33 | 6066543 firewolfsblog
firewolfsblog's picture

Doritos and TP bitchez

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 14:35 | 6066547 Lin S
Lin S's picture

Is his link broken or incorrect?

bastiatinstitute.org

I tried it but there was nothing there... what gives?

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:26 | 6066772 reader2010
reader2010's picture

“We’re the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our Great War’s a spiritual war… our Great Depression is our lives. We’ve all been raised on television to believe that one day we’d all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won’t. And we’re slowly learning that fact. And we’re very, very pissed off.”

- Chuck Palahniuk, Fight Club

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 15:38 | 6066821 Clesthenes
Clesthenes's picture

“it will be much worse than that”

Like, another Dark Age?

What else should we expect from a society that has used its children so badly.  For this is the consequence of governmental debt: the process by which a generation of tax consumers financially cannibalizes following generations of tax payers.  There is enough such debt now on the books to cannibalize following generations of Americans to the end of time: this, according to data, assumptions and formulas provided by financial reports of the US Government.

Bureaucrats who prepare these Reports tell us governmental policies are “unsustainable”, some observers call them “system-destroying”; I call them “civilization-destroying”.

 

These bureaucrats go to extraordinary measures to disguise such policies; but when you decode their deceits, no other conclusion is possible.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 20:44 | 6067595 nuke ISIS now
nuke ISIS now's picture

Yes it is and will be, much worse than that...

Its a big club folks, and you aint in it (hat tip to Geoge Calin), yes in America you re getting the big red white and blue dick shoved up your ass, next they will be coming for your retirement, "bank" on it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5dBZDSSky0

They want a dumbed down public, incapable of criitical thinking...yowsah boss, what evr you say, just give me my six pack nd big macs and ill be just fine

WAKE THE FUCK UP NOW!  Fuck the banks, fuck their credit, fuck you financial industry, choke on your fucking credit and die

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 16:00 | 6066885 unemployed
unemployed's picture

The BP megaspill took out my avatar.   Any of you ****tards thinking they going be any nicer to you?

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 16:39 | 6067028 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

Who knows when the confidence ends or how. Will the air come out like a popped balloon or like a tire that goes flat in a week we will see. There is no last time or previous experience. All the big operators can not convert to hard assets they are paper based. The wealthy and the corporation are locked out of pm,s mostly. How can any system made up entirely of worthless debt convert to hard assets. It can't. John law is probably the best instruction 

 

 

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 17:23 | 6067123 Dekyus
Dekyus's picture

finance heavely controlled ?  "arm of the government " ?  stop joking !!, they ARE the government they already control the State ! Of course for the Oligarchy the problem are taxes, regulations, social protection everything is not good for their profit... but competition between people, poor job, slavery workers is good for others but not them ! 

and why do the banksters have the monoply of money creation ? thats not sound like "liberalism" and "free market" 

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 17:29 | 6067159 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

The core issue is morality; like truth it is the first victim of any debased society.  In this case it is the entire world or entire human race.  There are a few exceptions, but only a few who have dealt seriously with their "sin condition".

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 21:55 | 6067801 BlackSwanOil
BlackSwanOil's picture

Right on the mark.  We all need to take another look at our sins.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 22:09 | 6067845 disgruntled hou...
disgruntled housewife's picture

According to an essay entitled "The Fate of Empires" there are six ages of an Empire; PIONEER, CONQUEST, COMMERCE, AFFLUENCE, INTELLECT and ending with DECADENCE. Every empire has indulged in the debasement of its currency in this final stage. We are here. Distraction is used to deceive citizens that is happening. Now you know why the NFL is allowed to file as a non profit with the IRS while entities who attempt to preserve the Constitution are targeted.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 22:09 | 6067846 disgruntled hou...
disgruntled housewife's picture

According to an essay entitled "The Fate of Empires" there are six ages of an Empire; PIONEER, CONQUEST, COMMERCE, AFFLUENCE, INTELLECT and ending with DECADENCE. Every empire has indulged in the debasement of its currency in this final stage. We are here. Distraction is used to deceive citizens that is happening. Now you know why the NFL is allowed to file as a non profit with the IRS while entities who attempt to preserve the Constitution are targeted.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 21:59 | 6067183 pocomotion
pocomotion's picture

The writers, theorists and all of you here have NO idea what is coming.  I think it's time I told you.

 

This will be simple to understand but hard to accept.  What is about to ha p. p.,/en to ou  ,r world is, t,.his,,jn jtkrhenk

                                                                                                                                                                        ,.te.,make,,nitng

so you must i*&^hj,   ,.#

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 17:50 | 6067212 yogibear
yogibear's picture

No worry, that Fed asset chart will be $8 trillion by the end of QE4.

The Fed assets will keep growing.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 19:20 | 6067433 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

BURN THE DEAD WOOD!  

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 20:31 | 6067577 PoasterToaster
PoasterToaster's picture

We've been in a 25 year depression, it's just that people in those useless cozy paper-pushing jobs haven't noticed.  The 100 million out of work sure did though.  And now it's coming to a crashing end.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 21:15 | 6067686 lesamourai
lesamourai's picture

The central banks and the BIS are a lot closer to the top of that pyramid methinks.

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 21:29 | 6067732 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture
Chicago teachers 'insulted' over request for 7 percent pay cut

 

 

http://news.yahoo.com/video/chicago-teachers-insulted-over-request-22082...

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 21:55 | 6067800 BI2
BI2's picture

It's The American Curse >>>  http://wp.me/p4OZ4v-3z

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 22:00 | 6067817 BlackSwanOil
BlackSwanOil's picture

If you think we can pay for our $18 trillion debt you need to look again.  The trillions in derivatives don't concern you?  Have you every check out the Fed and its money and debt policies?

Wed, 05/06/2015 - 22:03 | 6067821 BlackSwanOil
BlackSwanOil's picture

Who do you think really runs this world and the United States?  Do you realize that Democrats and Republicans really have anything to do with it?

Thu, 05/07/2015 - 00:12 | 6068141 tumblemore
tumblemore's picture

According to an essay entitled "The Fate of Empires" there are six ages of an Empire; PIONEER, CONQUEST, COMMERCE, AFFLUENCE, INTELLECT and ending with DECADENCE. Every empire has indulged in the debasement of its currency in this final stage.

 

Alternatively every time a civilization becomes the tallest poppy the banking mafia arrive and screw it up.

 

For 3000 years people have been trying to ban usury even to the point of adding hostility to it to their religions and even within living memory the western countries were highly anti-usury. Unfortunately it always slithers back eventually because it makes so much money for the usurers.


Thu, 05/07/2015 - 02:10 | 6068263 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

silver lining

The bad news: It will be much worse than that.

But remember this: there is the good bad news and the bad bad news.

Life is either going to be Orwell's "1984" or Mel Gibson's "Mad Max."

You get to decide for yourself which is more unacceptable and in which you'd rather spend your golden years.

And then keep your fingers crossed.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!