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US Macro Data Has Never Collapsed This Fast
Since the end of QE3 (and the end of the government's fiscal year), US macroeconomic data has disappointed and weakened on an unprecedented scale. With April data not showing the post-weather bounce that every sell-side economist is hoping for, the absolute level of macro weakness was only marginally weaker in the past in the aftermath of the Lehman crisis.
WTF!?
In the past, fundamentals mattered...
Which leaves us wondering... how long before these jaws snap shut?
Charts: Bloomberg
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Fundamentals? Just BTFD...
Ach! Just the wrong seasonals. Wait for the revisions. Everything's OK. Be happy. Don't worry.
runforyourlife
This is of course, is extremely bullish.
Get those buy orders in there fast.
An aquintence of mine has only ever bought stocks at the top. He's been sitting on the sidelines since 2008, last time he bought stocks.
Just got word he put a sizeable amount of his fortune in the market. Time has come.
Yeah, no worries here.
There's just a small foot wide crack opening up across the deck amid-ship.
It shouldn't matter... The band is still playing and champagne is still flowing...
So THATS the guy on the other side of my trades! Poor Bastard.
BTATF LOOOOOOOOW
If I read my charts correctly, now is the time to go LONG on Iron Ore.
How much leverage can I get on a E-Mini?
Joey LaVagina assures us all the things are about to get revised higher....stay calm.
"It was a bit chilly in April." -Joe LaVagina
you mean vagina joe?
I'm surpriesed they don't just have a "running correction" that puts the line where the central planners think it ought to be.
Just before a dam breaks the dripping increases. In this case the opposite is true, the last drips are holding on to a non-existent level of velocity. Or, in other words, self-willed financial isometrics.
ya all mean fundamentals like non gaap accounting?
or capex reduced for several years now so depreciation expense reduced? or severe cuts in jobs going to lesser cost part time w/o benefits, or independent contractors?
or companies cutting maintenance to meet numbers. Or fudging reserves for losses?
reality is things are worse than people think, even insiders are beginnign to believe in their own bs.
Nonsense!! BTFATH!!
/sarc off
I don't know if this latest drop is the fastest, it looks very much like the drop in late 2008, give it a bit more time to mature, and it might turn out to be!
It's rigged. ...move on
since a drop in oil didnt help consumers, surely a 50% increase in oil and gasoline is what the economy needs.
They'll surely squeeze every last bit of life out of us one way or another!
AWESOME! Obam-O-Nomics a la School of Neo-Krugsterism.
What's Good for ExxonMobil is Absolutely Fucking Great For YOU!
Back to work, serf.
This is your economy on 29.5 hr/wk jobs.
I had the opportunity to chat with a senior Goldmanite a few weeks ago.
He honestly thinks that everything's OK. I mean his older kid just graduated from college, got a great job on the street, doesn't understand why everybody's not getting health bennies (Back east everybody gets 'em this is a west coast phenomenon) what's a 29.5 hour part time job... in the stuff the Mexican can do, etc.
Seriously
Looks through a vastly different prism.
The winners never wonder why there are losers.
That's the attitude many have. A lawyer who I know recently asked what my problem is with the economy? He has made a profit in stocks and his retirement fund has grown. He's a liberal too so I guess I should undersand his attitude, "I've got mine so who cares."
My brother went to Babson. His roommate thought everybody's dad made $250k. #CluelessandSheltered.
Just what I was thinking. What we need is another $4.00 on a gallon. That'll help for sure. After all, I read some village in Scotland was paying the equivalent of over $13.00 US a gallon, and they still have their sheep.
Cal Lavorgna is leading the way (as usual) at $3.72 a gallon while the national average is $2.61.
http://www.californiagasprices.com/index.aspx?fuel=A
Quick! BUY....ALL.....THE.....THINGS!
Why buy when it's all junk, so do as I do, make all the things you want and need, nothing will pass the test of time if you don't.
QE lemmings. You can hear the wind whistling past the ears on the way down...
that is worse than when things collapse only faster since Lehman
There will be no recovery. Everywhere I go, people are shocked at the price of healthcare coverage. Walked into my small, hometown newspaper to pay a bill, yesterday. First thing he tells me- he has 4 employees, and his cost of their insurance went up $400 a month.
Paying bills is so 2010.
Did you remind him to thank Barry?
He knows- he is not a Barry fan.
Anyone want to feed monster?
Green Shoots?
I'd like to meet this Green. I like his style. Shoot first ask questions later and no one has ever seen him! Quite the sniper I do say myself.
I agree, he eats, shoots and leaves.
A panda only eats shoots and leaves.
Walked to into my local car dealership to pick up a license plate that had to be redirected to them, talked to a salesman there, said car sales are "dead"...
We in the trucking business see recessions coming 6 months before they show up in the data....and the last 3 months have been SCREAMING slowdown. Volumes down 20-40% depending on the freight lane...rates at rock bottom, literally unprofitable in many cases.
Agree. But I would add since X-Mas. Freight delivery at my company down about 33%.
Yep. Just took a delivery myself yesterday, and talked to driver. Drivers will also tell you they can still get work pretty much, but the choicest stuff and routes are drying up. They are doing more work. Freight loads have been on the light side, according to him.
And soon those drivers will be replaced by robots! Unemployment to 0%!
GoogleFreightTM
Same here in the fiberboard (cardboard) business.
I mentioned here a few weeks ago that we are down BIG TIME since mid Febrauary. Like someone turned off a switch...
I right code for one of the biggest gaming companies(video slot machines) in the world. Normally we are being pushed to get games out as fast as possible. Currently I'm working on two games that they have already said will go on the "shelf" and not be put on a casino floor until 2016. My last game, that I finished last quarter, is sitting on the "shelf" also. These are premium games that we lease floor space for and get most of the profits and have in the past gone strait to the floor. I've been doing this for 15 years with three different companies and have never had one of my games shelved.
slot revenue is worse than the gaming table and that is not doing well either - from Macau to LV - the indian casinos are overbuilt regionally with fixed overhead not being fully absorbed
IGT was just bought by GTech as capex has hit a wall and the age of Chuck Mathewson is now over
A lot of the traditional slot gamblers have taken their money to the other casino game, the stock market...
This is bullsih for pixie dust.
Make sure it's not counterfeit, only buy it from a real fairy.
only buy it from a real fairy
Obama? I still can't get the biking picture out of my head
As has been pointed out here many times, the economy has been crashing for quite some time. They have just papered over it with QE, money printing and " revised statistics" that weren't real in the first place.
Imaginary money, numbers, fairy dust, skittles and unicorns are still here...
WAIT! You mean to tell me we really haven't printed our way out of this? OMG!
Then FUCKING BREAK already!!!!
God damn it!
"In the past, fundamentals mattered..."
and now , they clearly don't.
With CB's all in, ending this party would require a 20082 global meltdown.
The macros will look better once the stats are better rigged. No fears.
We need two currencies.
One for the rich, and one for the poor.
Come on, you know we already do, gold for the rich and debt for the poor.
There's that T-rex chart again...
Virtual reality is not the same as reality. Often virtual is sexier.
Fundamentals - we don't need no stinkin fundamentals
This is what a corporate QE4 tantrum looks like. Don't give it to them. They've already taken the shirts off our backs and our children's future.
And how do we not give them QE4? We serfs have no say in the system. The FED and Treasury will make it happen whether we like it or not. We can only hope they lose the ability to keep gold down when QE4 happens.
Use your imagination.
Architecture and Engineering here and also forward looking industry can confirm. Projects on the boards started drying up or canceling q3 2014 for all sectors, residential in q2 2014. q1 2015 we saw not one single new inquirey and just minimal billings leftover from 2014. We could possibly go 2 quarters without a single new project inquirery. The last time that happened was q4 2007. This means not only is nobody spending on fixing up their offices, warehouses or building homes, apts. etc. they arent even thinking about it. The roof has to hit the floor to get most businesses to spend on capital improvements now days. I should add, we dont do public sector work.
This is good news! Buy the index.
Yeah yeah...buy stawks and sell gold while USD makes new highs, no brainer.
Dow to 25K next year.
Either way gold will get crushed, because it's obviously not regulated.
The bottom must be near. Right?
Bullish. Means it can't get any worse.
WTF IS MACRO DATA?????????????
I currently work closely with local Sheriff's Office...In the last few years thefts are WAY up, lots more domestic violence than normal, many more calls for assistance from people who really just need work; and not a cop, it used to be that you might get a couple calls a year that would be termed as " really crazy shit"... now it is damn near a weekly occurrence.
It looks like we are in for an even more thorough boning than 08', just grab your ankles... its on its way.
Here is an appropriate video.
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2015/02/24/video-of-the-day-watch-as-florid...