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Cable Surges After UK Exit Poll Shows Big Lead For Conservatives
In what Goldman suggested was "the most market-friendly" outcome, UKPolls reports that the Conservative Party leads the UK election (based on exit polls) with LibDems taking enough seats to enable a majority coalition. UKIP managed a disappointing 2 seats. Cable is rallying on the back of this (though we note this is exit polls only).
With 326 seats required for a majority:
- *U.K. VOTES: TORIES SET TO WIN 316 SEATS: EXIT POLL
- *U.K. VOTES: LABOUR SET TO WIN 239 SEATS: EXIT POLL
- *U.K. VOTES: SNP SET TO WIN 58 SEATS IN SCOTLAND: EXIT POLL
- *U.K. VOTES: LIBDEMS SET TO WIN 10 SEATS: EXIT POLL
- *UKIP 2 SEATS, "GREENS" 2 SEATS, OTHER 19
A projected GB-only electoral map using @May2015NS's model, based on the exit poll #GE2015 http://t.co/8Fu11S4HJI pic.twitter.com/T3ILLLBggm
— New Statesman (@NewStatesman) May 7, 2015
Here are the possible outcomes (along with SocGen's probabilities)... It appears Box (6) is the most likely now...
and here is Goldman, simplifying the decision process to three potential outcomes. While there is a whole range of potential outcomes to the May 7 election, each of the most likely governmental combinations falls into one of three broad groupings:
1. A Conservative-led government (either on its own or in coalition with the LibDems). This is likely to be perceived as the most ‘market-friendly’ outcome, partly because it would come closest to maintaining the status quo and also because the Conservatives’ stated aim is to reduce the budget deficit through cutting current expenditure rather than by raising taxes. Set against this, the Conservatives’ commitment to hold a referendum on EU membership by 2017 and the increased risk of exit would likely be negative for investment spending and UK assets.
2. A Labour-led government (either on its own, with the implicit support of the SNP, or in a formal coalition with the LibDems) would shift the balance of further fiscal adjustment away from spending cuts to tax increases. Labour’s proposals include: raising the top rate of income tax from 45% to 50%; raising the headline corporation tax rate from 20% to 21% (offset by measures designed to help small businesses); increasing the ‘Bank Levy’ on banks’ balance sheets, applying a second ‘one-off’ tax on bank bonuses, removing the non-domicile tax status and introducing a ‘Mansion Tax’ on residential properties worth more than £2 million. At the same time, a government of this complexion would be less likely to contemplate a referendum on Britain’s EU membership.
Of the potential Labour-led government combinations, financial markets would likely respond more favourably to a Labour/LibDem coalition than to a minority Labour government supported by the SNP on a confidence and supply basis. (The Labour party has ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP.) In this scenario, concerns are likely to emerge that reliance on the SNP would pull the Labour government away from the centre to the left of the political spectrum, as well as raising the spectre of distributional policies favouring Scotland at the expense of the UK as a whole.
3. It is also possible that there will be no clear outcome to the election. If no party (or coalition of parties) is able to form a stable government, a second election could be called shortly after the first or a minority government might attempt to struggle on. Again, the lack of clarity surrounding such an impasse would likely be damaging for UK growth and assets.
* * *
The Bottom Line is that at the macro level the implications of the election may be less pronounced than many anticipate. Monetary policy has been de-politicised through the Bank of England’s independence. Moreover, the formation of a coalition government is likely to involve convergence towards centrist positions, while a minority administration that pursues policies outside the mainstream would be unlikely to survive given its fragile parliamentary basis. In either case, the political system is unlikely to deliver radically different macroeconomic outcomes.
* * *
David Cameron is on course to remain prime minister at the head of a minority government after the U.K. general election, an exit poll showed. The pound jumped.
The prime minister’s Conservatives were forecast to win 316 of Parliament’s 650 seats, with Ed Miliband’s Labour Party trailing on 239 seats, according to the survey of voters published shortly after polling stations closed Thursday.
The forecast, based on interviews at voting centers in 140 districts across Britain, put the Scottish National Party in third place with 58 seats and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats fourth with 10, almost wiping out the 57 seats they won in 2010.
“We haven’t had an incumbent government increase its majority since 1983,” Conservative Chief Whip Michael Gove told the BBC. “If it is right, it means the Conservatives have clearly won this election and Labour has lost it.”
It appears Scenario #1 is most likely now and cable is loving it
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Any word on what the vote counters say??
Lonnng Diebold!!!!!!!!!!
The end of the UK is nigh.
Hopefully someone will end that fucking royal family. Fuck your royal babies! Maybe Soros will eat one of them before it's bone density gets too hard. An afternoon snack before tea. Don't forget the catchup George.
Add some baby blood puddin for desert. Sick, sick family, and let's not forget the Vatican and the other royal families.
Time for the guillotines again, but not for us Obammy
I voted today. They armed me with a pencil without an eraser. It's far to easy to change that vote.
Its not the vote that counts, its the people that count the vote that count.
and in a classic paper ballot you can watch them counting it, and count yourself. I'd cheer a bit more all those "Diebold! Diebold!" cries if the commenters that issue that cry would bother to check which countries use a classic paper ballot and which don't, and mention that. but too often they give me the impression... that they don't really wish for a better electoral system
operation grab syrias gold cumin soon
Cameron and Milliband are both dual citizens boys working for the Red Shield.
No goyim allowed.
Don't forget politicians are most likely to be scum bag attorneys
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This is excellent news. Cameron has been a fine Queen.
UKIP 2?
Thinking outside the box is not exactly a "british" trait, I guess.
It's the first-past-the-post system that drastically reduces the Parliamentary representation of the small parties. UKIP could get 20% of the vote yet get only 1% of the seats in Parliament.
You have to win the seat to get the seat. What is so bad about that?
It's the first-past-the-post system that drastically reduces the Parliamentary representation of the small parties. UKIP could get 20% of the vote yet get only 1% of the seats in Parliament.
Here's how Nigel was able to throw away a promising political future and restrict his party to as few votes as possible. From The Telegraph: "Nigel Farage says UKIP would strip traditional Christian wedding ceremonies of their legal status and keep same sex marriage."
That says it all.
Deadlock.
No way they’ll be able to form coalitions that work.
Let’s see how long it takes them to’start it all over.
Why deadlock ? This isn 't Belgium. Last time it took them 5 days to form a coalition ...
UKIP 2 ? Is this UK majoritarian electoral system a fraud ?
It is rigged, voting doesn't change anything, it just gives them legitimacy.
as with the scottish referendum, the usual suspects stacked the deck well in advance.
the NY Times and other establishment papers have spent a lot of time ignoring Ukraine and Israeli war crimes and Jade Helm in order to write about how UKIP is evil and "racist" and open borders is wonderful and good because nothing matters at all but "the economy" for dumb brainwashed fucks.
It feels good to give up any and all hope. World War 3 is just a little brush fire now, and I'm packing marshmallows, not a hose.
This is such meaningless bull sh.t!
The central bank of England runs the UK.
i suspect it also ran/runs all the the US central banks as well.
As to whether its English, thats another question.
NeoCon. The term is NeoCon.
The GBP must like even more spending and bigger debts! Have to listen to Max Keiser and the London Cabbie on this result!
So the British ZOG is back in office.
http://mycatbirdseat.com/2013/06/camerons-torah-government/
who is surprised?
camoron says thanks to his rabbi
no shit bro
for real
my life already
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRjX9xbswW4
only one hasbara gadfly downvoter?
http://www.gilad.co.uk/writings/zionist-control-of-britains-government-1...
http://www.whale.to/c/israel_control.html
http://www.rense.com/general38/brits.htm
Jews are all over the Tories. Vice-Chairmen, chairing crucial committees, major donors. Almost at bad as the HeBeBC.
http://irishsavant.blogspot.ie/2015/04/the-hebebc-anyone.html
Disraeli ring any bells ?
Not exactly new.
cam moron is jewish
his astor rothschild wife you guessed it
milliband jewish
the rape must go on
nothing left but tavistock kaos gladio control
http://www.politico.eu/article/galloway-bradford-elections-uk-ge2015/
All national politicians are selected and watch for disconnects between exit polls and actual results to prove the point. All US elections have been 51/49 since 2000 and the "hanging-chad" election was propagandized (it happened in all previous elections w/o a problem) & designed to get people to demand "electronic voting", which makes their fraud much easier. Ohio and Florida are always the deciding states; have you noticed? Why? see below
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEzY2tnwExs
If this is anyway near right it can only mean even poor people and those highly indebted mortgaged consumers, have been voting Conservative - no protest at all. Just went with the herd.
DUMB ass Brits.. same shit different day . . they want suicide by oligarch .. have lost any and all respect for the Brits.. herd animals .. for sure .. “Until they became conscious they will never rebel, and until after they have rebelled they cannot become conscious.”
? George Orwell, 1984
Political Correctness is a useful tool of Satan and it will eventually lead to Muslim rule in many nations. Look at Yugoslavia as the example where Muslims moved in and populated the Northern part and then took over till the country was literally split apart. Europe will be overrun before the US, but it will come.
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The elitist love Sharia Law, for it is so controlling and everyone is afraid of them; perfect for those who dominate until they can't because the "tools" turn on them. That's when people will wish for those loving and forgiving types known as Christians that were/are such easy targets.
Guess poor people don't vote eh?
BTFNN> Buy The Fucking Non News... The political system is so fragmented in the U.K.. The same as every other indebted caugh*caugh* western shithole.
Sell the news, Bitchez.
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Thacher in GB and Reagan here................set us on the path to where we are now. Thanks Conservtives.
I've been flat anything gbp trade related. There's NOTHING that justifies the 10 big figure move in Cable 1.45-1.55 over the last 2 months.
Apparently "risk" isn't in the European dictionary?
Are ALL Britush political "leaders" Zio-Gay?
Haven't seen such a buncha lame-dick wimps in lord-knows-how-long..
I didn't vote. There was no point in doing it since the area I live in has been a conservative stronghold for decades and had zero chance of change.
Even if the exit polls are 100% accurate which is doubtful, Camoron still has to form a coalition deal to stay in power, probably with the DUP of N.Ireland. Even then, it's a slim chance. As for Labour, they also face the same challenge of forming a coalition to get into power. Considering Miliband and the labour party's support for recognizing Palestine, there has been a pretty disgusting concerted MSM effort to support Camoron on all fronts. If the conservatives, 80% of whom belong to a group calling itself "Friends of Israel" stay in power, I expect more of the same accelerated wholesale theft of public assets to their friends at GS and a £12 billion cut in services. It looks like Britain has bought the bullshit of an economic recovery lock stock and barrel, so we will pay for it with austerity (Ass raping) while the banks thrive for another four years. Meh, maybe it would be the same story with Labour anyway.
Whatever happens tonight, I think it's going to be a weird few days to the 18th May first deadline (There's no formal deadline to form a govt, but it is expected to be decided before the 27th May Queen's Speech to Parliament)
"...maybe it would be the same story with Labour anyway"
Sure would. Neither Labour in office until 2010 nor the Coalition since have shown the slightest interest in holding the criminal banksters to account for wrecking the economy and continue doing so.
Now the election's over, truth will seep out that there is no recovery and there is no growth. A bunch of nasty economic and social policies - sitting in the pending tray - will now be slowly implemented and quite soon people who voted Tory will wonder why they did so.
UK General Elections: Rinse and Repeat.
Does this mean the British will bomb Iran?