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Shale Stocks Slammed As Crude Cracks Back Below $60
But just two days ago everything was awesome after the biggest inventory draw since 2014: Einhorn didn't know what he was talking about, the energy sector's 28x Fwd P/E was 'fine' and oil prices were on their way back to levels that save the US Shale industry... now, not so much...
Oil is not "up"...
Despite "commodity king" Gartman's insistence that Einhorn is "terribly terribly" wrong...
It seems maybe Einhorn was on to something after all... (remember all those talking heads decrying his comments?)
Charts: Bloomberg
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Don't worrry, gas prices are headed back up just in time to fuck joe six pack during driving season, so we have that going for us.
Yep, and check out the Wild Chipmunk ride in (paper) Ag! Massive churnings behind the curtain....
Baby got Crack Back -
Baby got Back Crack -
oh nevermind -
Pump and dump lives. The genius of the butt clown's on CNBC etc is they are capable of overlooking the obvious. The supply chain is dynamic and Cushing goes down by 12 million barrels in a 600 million+ barrel storage, supply is collapsing, oh the horror! Meanwhile they fail to notice the 145,000 barrel increase in just refined gasoline alone, and the contract for that went down. But the game must be played and the sheep shorn....
$59 will be a gap fill. See what happens around the round number.
Saudi's not done crushing shale yet. Hold off on the water purification systems for a few more months.
(unless you are currently on a well in "shale country")
What happened to oil the last time the market crashed?
Everyone here knows this market is doomed, yet for some reason they think oil is going back to $100.
The cognitive dissonance is palpable.
You are still pegging oil to the US dollar. As long as majority are doing just that, Oil could easily reach $100 again.
Memorial Day draws near. Crude higher to gouge at the pump. Too easy.
See that, Larry ? ... this is how you take out stops .
The beer that Gartman had for breakfast wasn't bad, so he had one more for dessert.
Fartman looks like his meds haven't kicked in yet, or maybe he is just coming down from whatever he took last night.
He's a drunk. Juicer sticks out all over him. Another "high functioning" alcoholic with delusions of grandeur.
I bet he has a flask hidden in one of those impressive books on his shelves.
The one that's not all caked in dust.
Does he think he's a fucking lawyer?
His profession is: alcoholic. His affliction affects every thought, word and action he has and does.
Not sure if he actually thinks he is a lawyer but I am quite certain he thinks he is a legend in his own mind.
I do wonder some days if all these smegma for brains that pass as an econ genius read our comments to see how we really see them.
Energy investors slammed in Alberta due to upset election:
http://business.financialpost.com/investing/what-the-ndp-victory-in-albe...
Gartman is so comically wrong about everything you could make a lot of money by simply taking the opposite position on everything he says... like he probably does.
The Saudi Double Bind - Dwindling foreign reserves vs Iran.
The Draghi Put - High Eur/High Oil Kills QE. Oil price pushes up inflation preventing ECB from increasing QE to stop rising Euro.
Bunds - No action at the front end - unsupportive of EUR/USD. Nobody really belives rate outlook for Euro area has changed.
Gilts - Bargain hunters noted ahead of UK Election results. Faceless men seen buying the 10Y.
Einhorn's view is bearish for producers, bullish for oil. His demand for blood is pretty consistent with the initial Saudi's desire - to drive out inefficient producers.
My number crunching for 10K's of major US shale gives $70 WTI as their average _breakeven_ for the last 6 years. As for losing money at $100 - that's greed, if it is $100 may be $200, I should buy that field before competitor do. There is a number of efficient fields, but not that many.
Cheap financing and bloated expectations is the very same reason for the current US shale boom - Saudi's reaction - world oil shock sequence. Without shale players debt surge US output would be lower, oil would be higher and world would be a calmer place.
I bought silver yesterday so figures it is down lolz fucking war of attrition this is.
But fuck it, I know howit turns out....
Aand it's gone!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nVk25ZvTkU
Oil prices are all about momentum - like stocks, fundamentals do not matter. There were (are?) some mo-mo players in oil over the last 2 weeks. I got out of oil services stocks last week, as I was happy with my gains, and I see too many black swans flying around today. There is just too much risk for too little reward, especially with no change in oil production (it's actually still increasing globally), and if stocks get hit, then everything is going down at least some.
i'm long-term value so screw 'em all. low p/b's, low debt companies, low price-to-free cash flow, positive dividend growth, small-caps and mid-caps. time horizon arbitrage, esteemed sirs.