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Stocks & Bond Soar After Disappointing Jobs Data
"Bad news is good news" once again as between stagnant manufacturing employment and very weak revisions has provided just the ammunition to send stocks and bond (prices) surging. Gold & Silver spiked after the report but were beaten back as The Dollar's kneejerk drop was instantly bid.
Dollar bounces as stocks and bonds soar...
All the major indices love bad data...
The Dow has surged to take out monday's highs (stops)...
and gold and silver pumped and dumped...
Charts: Bloomberg
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wait for it.... ...hold the line... ...almost...
for all intents and purposes our bonds are a bargain right now. as mispriced as they were in late 2013.
No mention by the media of the Obama economic disaster! Still Bushs fault?
makes perfect sense. this dogshit 223k jobs + the revision of march down to 85k guarantees the fed doen't hike rates. only question is, does the market move them on them again & if so, do C-banks bang 'um back down like they did yesterday after the fed set-out that trial balloon about possibly starting to sell bonds. they don't like the market reaction, no problem. just start buying bonds again to get the rates back down & continue to lie about no inflation. most fucking hilarious thing i saw all week was that FAO global report on food prices dropping to a 5-year low. we must shop at different food stores and go to different restuarants.
'Dogshit' jobs? sounds like sour grapes... Many sectors of the economy like Finance/accounting, IT, Healthcare & Education are booming and literally begging for workers here in the northeast and average pay is well over 100K...
Suddenly all these bleeding hearts really "Care" about those red shirted 20 somethings at Target doing a job that a monkey can do and think they deserve $20 an hour for... I mean my answer is always and always this when these bleeding hearts from Cambridge or Brookline talk about how underpaid they are - Why don't you hire them to work where you do... literal silence
Exactly the jobs we need. More people to shuffle the remaining bits of prosperity in a shell game, convincing producers they can only truly succeed by turning their wealth over to the casinos to "invest".
Obviously the financial sector will be our savior. It is amazing to me that people seem to thing that we can abandon production for the sake of sales commissions and gambling and still eat. At some point we will all have to come to the realization that it is production that creates prosperity, not clipping coupons or other means of wealth redistribution from the producers, WHICH IS ALL FINANCIALS DO.
'Dogshit' jobs? sounds like sour grapes... Many sectors of the economy like Finance/accounting, IT, Healthcare & Education are booming and literally begging for workers here in the northeast and average pay is well over 100K...
Suddenly all these bleeding hearts really "Care" about those red shirted 20 somethings at Target doing a job that a monkey can do and think they deserve $20 an hour for... I mean my answer is always and always this when these bleeding hearts from Cambridge or Brookline talk about how underpaid they are - Why don't you hire them to work where you do... literal silence
^^^
during reagan's recovery, 400,000 jobs a month was the floor, 700,000-800,000 a month were the ceilings
during obama's "recovery", 300,000 jobs have been the ceiling, average last 1-2 years has been around 200,000-250,000
to some people, i can understand how 250,000 is greater than 400,000 on the lo-side and how 300,000 is greater than 700,000-800,000 on the high-side.
to those "some people", i will gladly provide a free of charge math lesson along with economic lesson along with an unintended consequences lesson of endless $$$ printing & zero interest rate policy.
oh, and im assuming since u buy into these "policies" and "economics" you also believe there is no inflation.
i will leave you with just one quote.
"these aren't the droids your looking for"
Of course there is inflation, but a person with a fucking job is one less eater that those with jobs are FORCED to support. What is it about that math that confounds you??
There is NO upside to Obama's numbers unless you are one of the eaters and happy for it.
Mad Hatter: "A very merry un-birthday, to you!" Alice: "To me?" Mad Hatter: "To you!"
The TPTB are overjoyed, estatic and celebrating that they have beaten down, trampled and destroyed the middle class and small business....
Fuck off elitists!
Sustainability, these markets has it.
Been saying for over 5 years now that there will be no end to QE, and that we are the new Japan. I always have to laugh when the economists try to say they didn't see this coming, you know deflating property values, stock bubbles bursting, no wage growth. I guess I'd agree with them if I pretended that Japanese history ended in the mid-80's. I do have to hand it to the FRB, they are able to accelerate the stagnation quicker than the BOJ. No replacemetn for 'merican displcement (of growing poor).
BTFD the SNB is there for ya buddy.
I want to print too damn it.
We're in a new normal. No more recessions and no more rate hikes. Although they will always be just around the corner. I suggest to start drinking heavily.
i'm sure they'll investigate who manipulated the futures market higher upon the crummy jobs report, right? i mean, the rules are the same for every player...
sarc
As long as there is at least 1% of the population employed, the algos will take S&P to the moon.
RUT isn't buying this pump....dump could be dead ahead.
So...really...everything actually is awesome!
When the intoxicants are free, they don't need a reason to throw a party on a Friday, do they?
(Though it seems on Jobs Day it often takes till 10:30 or later for everything, hedges, etc to fully shake out, the enormous VIX slam would have to do an epic turnabout for today to be anything other than Green City)
I'm not buying this gap up, just feels like a pump and dump. No mans land on RUT still, volume is weak, just smells contrived.
I'm guessing you surfed this gap higher, congrats. Hopefully this won't be a typical strike pinning friday where we just sit at this level all day long.
I'm on the house for the week, leaving a little on the table at these levels, but not too much...85 TNA or lower would be a sweet spot for this week and
next weeks setup but I'm not holding my breath.
I don't like to trade much at all on Jobs Fridays except reversals -- remember I start 100% cash, so often the opening gap gives you 90% of the day's action, and playing a reversal can kill, extra volatility forces stop widening, often suicidal with 3X funds I use. Only major VIX reversals gets me in.
I agree with your thesis with this caveat: RUT's havin' trouble getting past the 20 DMA, so if it can't smash past it at least somewhat toward the 50 today, then the overall Daily Chart bear thesis for lower lows is intact (sez my best friend Mr. Wilder & his DMI). Can you recall any past Jobs ramp where IWM didn't lead the party? Still early, but you can almost feel folks sweatin' just a bit (mid-80s today even here in Ohio).
(Love to read your posts, as they give me a longer view against my short-term scalping, so keep 'em coming. Still firm in my decision to switch to the QQQ's, and its VXN is still dropping like a rock. I bet it was the Swiss Nat'l Bank buying that killed IWM short-term technical trading)
Exactly...can't remember a single jobs report where any move higher was not led by an outsized move in the RUT as compared to the other averages. I think a lot of folks got trapped in the BTFD and as you state are hovering over the sell button with sweaty palms. That's why I think we will get a capitulation in the next short while. My thesis is major players have been selling into any RUT strength over the last few weeks/months and once these nervous BTFD players capitulate, the bids are going to be non-existent and we get an October 2014 scenario, just several weeks of constant drifting lower as big players methodically/selectively cover their shorts....maybe get 2-3 days of sideways movement at the bottom to cover/go long.
Long term, I think RUT revisits 08 levels, but it is almost impossible to time that out. Leap put premiums will eat you alive if you don't enter a spread, and even then, still pricy.
I enjoy your posts as well, haven't seen alot of comments recently on trading this beast which is why I came to ZH years ago, just didn't join in the fun until recently. Wish more traders came to the hedge and gave their perspective, maybe would improve all our attempts to take back from Caesar.
I'm not opposed to daily scalping, just not as much of a technical trader as you seem to be, and sometimes that gets difficult in the options arena. I watch some basic technical's, but I would call myself more of a mechanic than a technician. Thursday close and Friday is a good day to scalp with weekly options, but I generally only do that with a portion of the weeks winnings if I have them and when volatility is present. Generally my strategies are either for a week or for the month with weekly engagement, but I bank windfalls whenever they hit. I leave money on the table on nearly every trade but I sleep at night. Goal is to generate consistent income, not hit the jackpot...getting too old to play the lotto on every trade...it was fun for awhile but the house usually wins that game and Pepto doesn't go well with breakfast.
Reuters
Job growth regains steam, keeping Fed rate hike on trackU.S. job growth rebounded last month and the unemployment rate dropped to a near seven-year low of 5.4 percent, signs of a pick-up in economic momentum that could keep the Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates this year.
tyler, nobody has seen this as a bad job data except you.
Yay!