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Russell Napier Explains What's In Store For Gold If Cash Is Outlawed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By Russell Napier of the Electronic Research Interchange

Why we didn’t have negative nominal yields in the Depression and the end of QE

Oh the time will come up
When the winds will stop
And the breeze will cease to be breathin’,
Like the stillness in the wind
’Fore the hurricane begins ---
The hour when the ship comes in.

 

And the words that are used
For to get the ship confused
Will not be understood as they’re spoken,
For the chains of the sea
Will have busted in the night
And will be buried at the bottom of the ocean.

     -  When The Ship Comes In (Bob Dylan 1963)

 

The Napier Euro High Yield Capital Guarantee Fund (discussed in the November 12th edition of The Solid Ground) is almost ready for launch. It offers a unique combination of attributes to investors. It has significantly better risk/reward characteristics than both deposits and government debt securities. In short, it is a room full of Euro banknotes.

The launch of the fund will clearly mark the limits to monetary policy and thus the end to QE in Europe. The fund’s many attractive features include:

  • a small negative yield (my fee), but it yields more than Euro bank deposits and most Euro denominated government debt securities.
  • the assets are a liability of the central bank and not the commercial banks. While bank deposits, above the level guaranteed by governments, can be bailed-in and frozen during any bank reconstruction, the banknotes nominal value is assured by the central bank. The fund thus offers significant capital protection and enhanced liquidity to any bank deposit.
  • unlike longer-dated debt securities of the government, the banknote will not suffer a loss in value should fears of inflation rear their ugly head. While the markets will begin to price future inflation into longer-dated fixed interest securities, the banknote holder suffers no loss at such apprehension. The fund would seek to move from banknotes should recorded inflation appear, as this would impact the real value of investments. The nominal value of the fund cannot decline if inflation expectations rise, ensuring significant protection compared to government debt securities.
  • banknotes could be bid up, relative to deposits, as the authorities seek to restrict access. Last week Schweizer Radio und Fernsehen reported that a Swiss bank had refused to transform the deposits of a Swiss pension fund into banknotes and that the Swiss National Bank confirmed that they were against the hoarding of banknotes to avoid negative deposit rates. The ECB is just as likely to be against such bank runs as the SNB. Any move to restrict access to central bank liabilities (banknotes) and enforce the holding of commercial bank liabilities (bank deposits) is likely to lead to a premium of one over the other. Given the capital risk and lower yield on bank money, Gresham’s Law is likely to see banknotes becoming a store of value, while people seek to use the inferior bank deposit as a means of transaction. Banknotes traded at premiums to bank deposits, albeit in closed banks, in the US in the 1930s. A premium for banknotes would provide a rising nominal value for the fund.
  • the fund would hold only Euro notes with a serial number beginning with X, the X denoting that these notes have been printed by Germany. Such notes could also be bid up relative to deposits and even other notes, should investors fear the demise of the Euro and the re-birth of the DM or a northern European ‘NEuro’. Should this occur, the nominal value of the fund would once more rise.
  • a banknote owner will be able to shift capital to any jurisdiction where the Euro remains fungible. Restrictions on banknote withdrawals and transfers of deposits were imposed in Cyprus, as part of the plan to prevent the funding base of the Cypriot banks moving to other banks in the European Union. The ability to shift capital across borders, should such movement be outlawed, would likely lead to a premium developing for banknotes. Should this occur, the nominal value of the fund would, yet again, rise.
  • notes would be held in denominations of 50 Euros. The authorities are already minded to ban the Euro 500 note (known by some as the ‘Bin Laden’ because it is known to exist but is rarely seen). It is rarely seen because the ‘Bin Laden’ is prized by criminals and those seeking to avoid taxation, meaning it’s increasingly likely to be recalled and abolished. Any ban on large denomination notes to combat illegal activity is unlikely, however, to affect the 50 Euro note given its key role in everyday transactions in Europe. Those bent on illegal activity may just have to get themselves bigger suitcases to stash their smaller denomination notes. A premium may develop for such notes, and such suitcases, and should this occur the nominal value of the fund would, you’ve guessed it, rise.

The fund produces an enhanced yield over bank deposits and most government debt securities, and cannot be subject to a decline in nominal value unlike bank deposits or government debt securities. In some fairly extreme cases it may even produce a capital gain relative to most money (bank deposits). The only likelihood of loss is in the case of an instant and material rise in inflation that would undermine the real value of the fund. However, unless such inflation developed virtually overnight the fund could be liquidated, without capital loss unlike government securities subjected to an inflationary shock.

The inflation protection offered by banknotes is thus significant given the current yield on government bonds. While government bond prices may rise somewhat further in a deflation, the banknote arbitrage opportunity suggests that the upside for government bond prices in a deflation is very limited. Government debt securities did not have negative nominal yields in the Great Depression despite gross deflation so why should they they have them now? Thus, those speculating on government bonds to see negative nominal yields go ever lower may not get the capital gains they think are coming their way. Banknotes may even perform as well in a deflation as government debt securities and offer much better protection should an inflationary future appear more likely.

Given this combination of risk characteristics, why would you want to own a government bond or a bank deposit when the Napier Euro High Yield Capital Guarantee Fund is available? (Before I am inundated with e-mails looking for a prospectus, I should point out that I am independent financial consultant and, am not regulated to look after client monies. Also, I don’t have a basement or a machine gun.)

The attraction of a banknote fund arises due to an arbitrage which creates a limit to monetary policy. It is that limit which contains the key information about financial market reactions for investors. QE cannot force the price of government debt securities much higher and yields much lower, as increasingly banknotes and even bank deposits become attractive to investors compared to government debt. A limit to QE is a big story.

Such an arbitrage opportunity would limit the profits one makes in such bonds during a deflation and both notes and deposits offer major protection from capital losses should there be a major change in inflationary expectations. This would be a world of deflation where the scale of negative nominal rates would have a floor. Indeed, bond yields could overshoot into negative territory and then rise into a deflation as the limits to negative nominal yields became increasingly clear. Thus the recent rise in the yields of Euroland government securities may not be a signal of inflation at all, but rather a realization that we have reached the arbitrage limits of how far yields can fall.

A world of less growth and deflation, but one where interest rates are clearly stuck in nominal terms, is a very dangerous world for equity investors with surprisingly few gains for bond investors.

Historically the shift from deposits to banknotes was associated with the fear of commercial bank insolvency or illiquidity. That was called a bank run. Today a bank run is the natural consequence of forcing too much central bank liquidity (bank reserves) onto a system which simply does not want them. A banker does not want to accept this short-term funding if he cannot lend the proceeds at a profit.

The only way for the banking system in aggregate to repel such funding is to offer interest rates on deposits (bank liabilities) which force investors into banknotes (someone else’s liability). Tighter regulation and collapsing long-term interest rates mean that profits from lending for Euroland bankers are increasingly illusory. Banks are keen to repel deposits given the lack of opportunity to use them. If QE reduces the banks’ ability to lend money and also creates an arbitrage from bank deposits into banknotes, will it reflate the economy?

If you think the answer is ‘no’ then European QE will have to stop with fairly negative consequences for the equity market and positive implications for the Euro exchange rate. Evidence of selling of government debt securities with negative yields is thus not necessarily a sign of inflation. A move to bank deposits or banknotes from government debt securities can instead indicate that the limits for QE have been reached.

The more investors focus on the limits to the scale of negative nominal rates, the more they focus on the failure of QE or on Ken Rogoff’s paper on killing cash: "Costs and benefits to phasing out paper currency By Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University."

While he doesn’t quite label banknotes a ‘barbarous relic’, he comes pretty close. The direction of travel in seeking to ban the use of cash is the same as those who railed against gold as a form of money. Once gold was considered too hard a money for society but now paper may be too hard for us to bear. It seems we need the digital money of deposits that shrink when subjected by central bankers to the hot light of negative nominal interest rates!

If banknotes are outlawed you will be forced to hold money that is a liability of a commercial bank (deposits) and refused access to money that is the liability of the central bank (bank notes). You will be forced to accept the risk of losses on a bank failure and banned from an instrument which promises no adjustment in nominal value. Any such ban would have to be a decision of government and not of the central bank. This means we’ll all have plenty of warning that it is on its way! We will be forced by law to liquidate the Napier Euro High Yield Capital Guarantee Fund and return capital or watch the fund’s value fall to zero as it holds something which has been stripped of legal tender status.

Euroland is not the only place where the limits to monetary policy are becoming more apparent. In the JPMorgan Chase annual report President and CEO Jamie Dimon warned that banks are having to turn away even USD deposits. This analyst has now spoken with three investment managers who have been asked to close their deposit accounts with JPM. At this stage other bankers still offer positive nominal yields on bank deposits, but how long will that last as orphaned deposits roam the streets of Manhattan, like Oliver Twist, in search of somewhere they can call home? These orphaned deposits will put downward pressure on interest rates for large-scale depositors and eventually, even in the US, the much reviled greenback may be seen as a store of value relative to bank deposits or Treasuries.

So, should we reach the limits to monetary policy, what’s in store for that ‘barbarous relic’ sometimes known as gold? It would be a period of rapidly rising real interest rates, as a floor on negative nominal interest rates had been set in a period of accelerating deflation. This should be bad for gold. As The Solid Ground has argued before, the de-leveraging which always comes with deflation and falling cashflows would be very positive for the USD. This would also be bad for gold.

However, in such a world, zero-yielding gold would be a high-yielding instrument. If the authorities ever sought to restrict access to banknotes, then gold would suddenly find itself enfranchised as money for the first time in many decades. So, given the scale of these competing forces, it is just too early to say what might happen to the gold price, but the allure of gold will grow the more it becomes clear that central bank fiat has failed and the age of government fiat is dawning.

The time is ever nearer when the price of gold will rise in an era of deflation. In due course, though no time soon, the full force of government fiat will engineer a reflation, albeit one replete with the misallocations of savings and capital so beloved by the bureaucrat. Then the PhD standard, in which the value of money is linked only to the words of the over-educated, will have ended. The gold price will rise even further, ‘And the words that are used for to get the ship confused will not be understood as they’re spoken, for the chains of the sea will have busted in the night’. And that’s ‘The hour when the ship comes in.’

 

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Sat, 05/09/2015 - 13:53 | 6076032 q99x2
q99x2's picture

A little gold, a little silver and a bitcoin. Last price $242

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 13:58 | 6076050 Captain Debtcrash
Captain Debtcrash's picture

For anyone aquiering precious metals here is the program I use to help me buy the dips:

http://debtcrash.report/entry/debtcrash-metal-purchase-program

It's a free download.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:12 | 6076095 Arius.
Arius.'s picture

incidentally, one of issues DisselBloom is pressing on Greece is to outlaw use of cash on greek islands. .. the government is pressed by small business and is asking to have a floor of 70-100 dollars in cash, everything over only plastic.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:20 | 6076227 Achilles Heel
Achilles Heel's picture

From what I understand, the Maxwell House, & Chock full o Nuts Banks are offering safe deposit boxes which can be guarded, free of charge, by Browning A5 shotguns, or the weapon of your choice.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:32 | 6076259 jefferson32
jefferson32's picture

The war on cash advances in Switzerland. Today biggest newspaper in French headlines "cash will soon be banned" (to protect people against the risk of carrying it). Here:

http://www.lematin.ch/suisse/achats-cash-c-bientot-fini/story/16212346

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:26 | 6076375 MonetaryApostate
MonetaryApostate's picture

This article is full of Wishful Assumptions.....

The Elite love C O N T R O L, so Digital Currency / Banking is what will be M A N D A T E D, or did the entire gold confisication & switch to fiat escape everyone's memory?

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:34 | 6076517 green sheen
green sheen's picture

.Truly pathetic this site is still pumping gold & talking about the Fed as if it's some sort of government intervention.
Retards, the banks own the Fed. They decide everything it does to enrich themselves and rape you. This stupid website and its blog roll have been telling you to sell them your stocks, buy their gold , & gold mining stocks since the crisis and it still doesn't compute. None of these sites would ever suggest maybe we let anyone EXCEPT the banks control our money.
They won't talk about North Dakota's state bank either. They wouldn't dare. Why is that? It's much more stable. It pays more taxes. It earns more. It causes less inflation than letting Bank of America print 1 trillion for a currency trade.
If the rich do get their gold backed currency they will confiscate your gold AGAIN. People are much dumber now than they were last time they took it in 1933
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ey20x-VlDYQ

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 18:12 | 6076615 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

You are right about state banks.  Land banks are an even better idea.   But Wall Street wines and dines the other state comptrollers and pension people and does their best to keep them from going that route.

Gold could be confiscated possibly in the future, though I doubt it.  If they did, they would take the bullion banks and ishares people's gold.  Gold and silver are a great hedge.  I bought silver at $4 and gold at $286, sold a few months off the peak, and am now slowly re-accumulating.  You buy precious metals for 2o years from now, not for get rich quick.  You just buy old gold and silver coins, even the worst grade if you just want the weight.  They are considered legal tender and have numismatic value.  It was exempt from confiscation in the 1930's and it will be exempt in the future.  Incidentally, the 1% own these same coins.  They tend to protect themselves via edict and laws.

Incidently, when the government goes to means testing (and they will) you can quite honestly say that you only have about $400 in savings (16 St. Gaudens $20 gold pieces at NGC rating "CRAP" worth $18,500 etc.)

You also come across as a "grunt fug".  You know, that loud old fart at a resturant who bores his company by explaining all the failures and wrong moves his family members and friends have done and how much smarter he is.  "People are dumber . . "  Pathetic sheeple, fat lazy americans, etc; these are all clues to listen for in these forums the let other's know right away you are an emotional cripple and failed man (perhaps not monitarily, but spiritually, morally, and otherwise; no compassion, no fellow feeling for others, greedy, selfish, emotionally constipated.)  Are you able to tell your family members you love them?  Or are you all alone by yourself and alienated?  Sadly, your daughter will put you in a low cost home at the end, siphon off most your wealth, and blow it all on cocaine and drugs with her boyfriend down in Florida.  All that will remain of you is some ash on the ground at a cut-rate crematorium.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 20:10 | 6076914 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Outlaw cash and outlaw gold.

Then the central planners have full incompetent control until everything fully collapses.

And then they'll find a new external reason for the collapse.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 21:22 | 6077045 Publicus
Publicus's picture

lol, so gold pumpers are now pinning their hope on cash being outlawed.

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 12:51 | 6078222 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Hey Publicus - fat, dumb & statist is no way to go through life, son...

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 13:39 | 6078351 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

The simpleton probably missed the last bull market, so I can guarantee you that the dimwit will miss the next one. 

Then, after we've all cashed out and made yet again, triple digit returns, he'll step in and start mock the bear correction as if it doesn't happen to any other financial instrument. 

Another dead consumer post-collapse. Enjoy talking to him now. I give him a week after the stores shutter their doors and windows. 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 19:30 | 6076839 do-loop
do-loop's picture

The swissoids will not tolerate a cash ban. They will reluctantly go along with limits on cash withdrawals, but the only people who need to worry about that is people trying to pull big amounts of cash - for high net worth individuals - understandable considering the negative interest rates.

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 12:45 | 6078203 BarbaricRelic
BarbaricRelic's picture

Translation of the headline and first paragraph:

"Purchases in cash, it's almost over!
silver -

Denmark plans to eliminate cash payments in some shops . A measure that could become widespread soon. Traders are not all convinced ."

The first comment translates: "Governments want to remove the liquid for better control our spending and tax us ."

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:27 | 6076380 daveO
daveO's picture

Better get the cash or metals soon.

A cash ban = bail in.

They will, probably, start slowing the pace of Reserve Note printing intentionally. On a side note, from what little I understand, Utility bonds (and defensive corporate bonds)  fared well in the 30's while many muni's went broke.  

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 18:12 | 6076663 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

If they ban cash, how will politicians get bribes?

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 19:28 | 6076832 HamFistedIdiot
HamFistedIdiot's picture

Digital will enable sleaze on a vast scale. But it will be of the fascist, vertically integrated type that bars entry to free lance, unaffiliated scammers. Big Brother will run the hood from top to bottom.

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 13:40 | 6078356 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

So in other words, even if I had the money I couldn't buy one of these political prostitutes in DC?

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 20:05 | 6076898 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

It works like this.  Your friend loans you $50,000 to buy some property.  Then six months later, he buys that property from you for five million.  Deal done and patronage bought.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 18:36 | 6076713 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Cash ban is a one time spending boon to boost GDP and tax revenue numbers.

It draws all the cash off the sidelines i.e. stuff like drug money cash into the system for a one time revenue boost since it becomes useless unless it is spent and it is the quickest 'legal' way to launder the profits at that point in time. It is a one shot tax revenue boost because there is nothing else to steal from the system. The whole deck of cards just collapses quicker when you do that. It is a desperation move if they ban cash and an even bigger tell if happens globally.

You don't ban cash if you need a large tax revenue boost like that, you discontinue the notes then reissue new ones afterwards if the system wasn't totally bankrupt.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 19:11 | 6076792 McCormick No. 9
McCormick No. 9's picture

If cash is outlawed, I will accepot the following as payment for goods and services:

Denominated gold and silver coins

Guns

Ammunition of any caliber

Tobacco

Marijuanna

Alcohol (spirits, not beer or wine)

I will accept any of these with a minimum of negotiation. I am sure that set values for these items will quickly emerge, and the market will allow for price discovery at relatively stable values for all of the above. Thus three bales of hay or an hour of skilled labor might be set at the following:

1 silver dollar

1/5 of a firearm (obviously it will be difficult to break a gun into fifths, but we might trade for more time and or more hay at the 1/5 rate)

10 rounds of large caliber ammo, or twenty .22 rounds

3 packs of cigarettes or 1 oz loose tobacco

3 nugs marijuanna

1 fifth of spirits

All other items can be bartered for, but such barter will have to be negotiated. I might not want the items offered for various reasons- I can't use it, I can't trade it, I have it already. But you can always ask.

 

Other barter

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 09:10 | 6077802 DrJRiddle
DrJRiddle's picture

You're undervaluing your firearms and overvaluing the ammo and hay, but yeah. Though consumables might get awfully high. 

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 09:14 | 6077806 NoDecaf
NoDecaf's picture

You may be over paying with that silver dollar. People scrape by in sub-Saharan Africa on 1/5 - 1/7 of an ounce per day. (~$2-5) That's a full day of calories put toward whatever manual labor gets them through the day. Here in the USSA, post collapse, you will have more stored calories in a typical human body and should get more productivity.

I think that you could get a full 40 hour work week for an ounce of silver...

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 22:22 | 6077185 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

The notion of prohibiting the use of cash stems from a desire to collect all the tax revenue obliged to be paid.

It prevents cash businesses from cheating the IRS and the IMF out of what is due them.

The gold guys never miss an opportunity to turn a topic into the price of gold.

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 03:04 | 6077517 scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

nothing to do with negative rates, ha, idiot?

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 09:51 | 6077855 RickyJabbour
RickyJabbour's picture

Look for a currency exchange before a cash ban.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 22:26 | 6077193 unrulian
unrulian's picture

haha A5..funny choice i call it the AK of shotguns, you can bury it in a swamp for a year and it will fire as soon as you hose it down

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 00:56 | 6077424 AGuy
AGuy's picture

FWIW: If the outlaw cash, then PM's will likely be outlawed to. I can't see them leaving such a huge loophole. if cash is deemed a "problem" So will PMs. That said I don't think they will get rid of cash, but perhaps get rid of larger notes (ie remove $50/$100 notes from circulation).

Probably the best thing that can happen is more cybercrime problems that expose the huge security problems with electronic payment systems.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:02 | 6076066 realmoney2015
realmoney2015's picture

We need to not worry about what gold and silver are priced at in terms of the dollar. We need to look at what gold and silver can buy. They are, after all, money. Old timers can remember when a gallon of gas was a couple of dimes. Well a gallon a gas is still only a couple of dimes...real silver dimes of course. 

Its my goal to raise awareness on real money and to spread the ideas ( and the metals themselves) throughout our society. That's why I male candles with silver coin prizes: www.etsy.com/shop/ScentSavers

The more people know about the true value of money, the closer we will be to bucking this system.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:15 | 6076100 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

here, here!

carry on...u r not alone.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:25 | 6076117 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

A male candle? Is that some kind code for 'dildo?'

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 18:13 | 6076667 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

I don't know; ask your mom.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:59 | 6076184 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I'm with you, but when they get rid of cash they'll concurrently make Gold and Silver illegal to buy, sell, or trade with.

It will come with "the terrorists are using precious metals to buy weapons and fund operations".

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:11 | 6076206 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Yes, I think this as well. However, concurrently with that decree, the rest of the world will see that the king (dollar) has no clothes as even emerging markets embrace gold backed notes and other trading platforms that have gold as it's basis. Also, standby for a massive black market in gold. The US outlaws gold and for sure it'll be relegated to 3rd world status immediately and become a complete joke on the international stage. The US gov't is going to have one hell of a hard time getting it's citizens to follow any stupid, fucked up law that outlaws gold when said citizens are having a hard time feeding their families with a bankrupt currency and full stop economy thanks to their lawmakers incompetence to begin with. Those idiots would be better served quitting while they are behind but not yet lynched.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:38 | 6076280 philosophers bone
philosophers bone's picture

And insurance companies will no longer offer boat insurance. 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:33 | 6076396 daveO
daveO's picture

Amen to that. FDR outlawed gold, but not silver. Not everyone turned in their gold. There is always a market at a price, see Argentina a dozen years ago. Smugglers were bringing in US greenbacks. The same thing could happen here. It's better to be a temporary outlaw than completely penniless and/or homeless.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 18:14 | 6076670 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

They turned in their numismatic coins that were legal tender and had collector value?

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 08:52 | 6077783 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Not everyone turned in their gold.

For anyone who purchased PMs in the last 10-20 years it's my guess there are ample saved records by TPTB to know who has purchased what gold. They may not know who has legacy gold but they know who's been buying.


Sat, 05/09/2015 - 19:33 | 6076849 Bro of the Sorr...
Bro of the Sorrowful Figure's picture

i just watched john wick (on an international flight). the movie is totally unrealistic but is all about russian gangsters and hitmen and the criminal underworld in NY. they all used gold coins to pay for everything. some interesting conditioning going on.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:53 | 6076596 RichardParker
RichardParker's picture

England essentially made private ownership of gold coins illegal in 1966.

https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=1966+gold+ban+england

 

 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 22:01 | 6077151 2handband
2handband's picture

Gold and silver are only money if people say they are. That's what you don't get... there's no such thing as "natural money". All money is really fiat money; it's valuable because somebody says it is. In truth, if you look at gold/silver based currencies in days of yore they were manipulated as FUCK... just like unbacked fiat is today. The idea that a metals-backed currency is utterly stable and unmanipulable is naive beyond belief. It still mostly benefits those in power, and it's still fiat. I'll bet anything you like that it's be worthless in a real crisis... if shit really flew off the rails nothing would be valuable if you couldn't eat it, drink it, smoke it, or fuck it.

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 04:20 | 6077556 Zoomorph
Zoomorph's picture

Good points. However, using Gold as a currency would indeed be far more stable since it's extremely rare and difficult to produce compared with printed paper money. Gold currency would be harder to manipulate, but still not impossible. Fake gold would pose a whole new problem and it would be difficult to ask every person to test gold for every transaction.

Anyways, I would not feel particularly safe owning gold, even burying it somewhere. Technology will soon be able to find hidden gold (if it can't already) and the government WILL catch those who didn't turn it in this time, and you will be treated as criminals and have your children taken away.

The only way to fight back against an all-powerful opponent is to feign compliance for long enough that he lets his guard down, grows fat and lazy, and isn't all-powerful anymore. And if the government can scan our brains for compliance, then it gets a whole lot more serious and we move into the realm explored by many scifis.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:50 | 6076290 Welfare Tycoon
Welfare Tycoon's picture

The rage on here about Gold and Silver is absolutely rediculous and unwarranted. 

If and when a meltdown actually occurs, the government will outlaw these resources and jail the people who try to use them.

Seriously, if people are getting cops sent after them for withdrawing over $5000 cash from their own bank account right now, do you really think that they are going to let you walk around with precious metals in your pocket?

If people really do want to make the most of their prepping efforts for a complete meltdown (if one ever does occur, Fed willing), the only things that you should be concerned about hoarding are guns, ammo, crops, and livestock. All other resources and fall-back plans that involve public transaction and usage will be made irrelevant by government legislation. 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:03 | 6076335 BoredRoom
BoredRoom's picture

silver and gold are money and will always be accepted in trade for other things of value.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:28 | 6076385 giggler321
giggler321's picture

You can stand there with your pockets and hands full of yellow and white metal but the people around you will have guns, ammo and familys to feed.  While the pen might be mightier than the sword; I wouldn't want to be standing around to find out if some metal is.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:38 | 6076400 daveO
daveO's picture

Have you ever watched an old Western? What were they always killing each other for? Two guesses.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLxScqSZ9D4

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:11 | 6076483 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

Im going to take a shot in the dark, just a guess here, and say that most holders of gold and silver also have guns and plenty of 'lead bullion' as well.

 

Although the gold and silver crowd do tend to be very accident prone, and could have lost their guns in a tragic ocean kayak related incident

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 18:40 | 6076737 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

In addition to criminalizing the exchange of metals for goods ("only terrorists use gold") you can bet your last ounce of bullion there will be a lot of fake metals (gold plated tungston coins).  Precious metals will be as "distrusted" by the public as bitcoin wallets have become.  To maintain the necessary levels of control, tptb will find it absolutely necessary to strafe the lifeboats, i.e., destroy any alternative to the approved financial instruments.

You may be able to trade gold to an underground "dealer" but it will be at a significant discount to whatever value is assigned to it by the globalists.  I'm not saying don't stack, but be clear headed about it.  Play the scenarios out.  If money is outlawed, it will damn hard to convert your metals at anything resembling fair value because the right connections will be, by definition, criminals, and well-armed criminals at that.

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 02:02 | 6077459 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Hiding Gold?

 

This is the best way...

 

Dissolve it in Aqua Regia and then drop it out of solution (with Urea to neutarlize the Nitric Acid and then followed with Sodium Pyrosulfite to release Gold from the Gold Chloride by substitution with Sodium.)

 

It looks like DIRT...MUD...before melting.

 

Check out this picture...

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aqua_regia#/media/File:Golddust.jpg

 

It is real. I own Gold, 24k. 999 Fine, in this form...

 

Over 190 Cell Phones destroyed. Goodbye NSA Tracking Devices. Thank you for the Gold, Obama. The homeless thank you for their drink upon the US Government Obamaphone Program. I will enjoy the shiny....er...MUD.

 

Boris Alotovkrap has a copper mining outfit???

 

He needs to transition to Gold Mining.

 

To turn it back into a recognizable form?

 

Easy. Melt it with a torch. It will look like Gold at that point. But the concealment factor is also lost at that point.

 

And now you know how to hide your Gold.

 

 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:57 | 6076411 Welfare Tycoon
Welfare Tycoon's picture

If we had ideal circumstances, I would agree. However, I am saying that there isnt much of a point at this time due to several modern constraints that we have.

1) The government will simply outlaw these methods of trade. All transactions involving gold would have to be done behind closed doors to avoid arrest. This in itself would make gold a risk to handle. 

-I am not sure if you referenced pop-culture spaghetti western's as a pro or con for gold, but I will use that as a point as well (if these movies are even accurate). Why would you want possession of a resource that people will kill for that does not really help you survive to begin with? That seems like a unnecessary added risk to me. 

2) Only a tiny percentage of the population has a physical stock of these resources at the moment. There is not enough widespread use or handling of it in today's economic system to make it a viable currency. 

3) Why would I or some average citizen want to trade my possesions for gold? I think I would rather prefer to buy natural resources like firewood or food if SHTF, not a metal that would have no utilitarian purpose while I am living by the skin of my teeth. There is so little of it in the civilian population's hands that I cannot see how it would serve a widespread use. Correct me if I am wrong, but if I have a steady supply of food, shelter, defense, and warmth, why would I need gold to begin with in a post-apocalyptic world of survival of the fitest?

I will conceed that gold would have purpose if you want to hedge against a shit currency. However, do not think it would serve a good purpose outside of that, especially in regards to a post-collapse trade situation.  

If we lived in a sane economy, I would agree that gold or gold-backed curency would be a viable method of trade. I just do not think that that is possible at this point in time.

 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 20:52 | 6076984 August
August's picture

>>>I will conceed that gold would have purpose if you want to hedge against a shit currency.

Ragnarok may or may not arrive, but there's a fair chance that, one day, we may be faced with shit currency.

In fact, the likelihood of a shit currency event is close to 100%

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 04:29 | 6077561 Zoomorph
Zoomorph's picture

Hoarding precious metals for a collapse is basically a "get rich" scheme for the next society. We dream of being millionaires after a collapse and return to a gold standard where most others lost all of their wealth.

But hey, I'm not saying this in a bad way, it's good to be greedy.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:14 | 6076485 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

PMs are for the reconstruction, after the crash, not immediately but at a later date.  people and communities will rebuild, and after this fiat fiasco no one will trust the value of any paper.  PMs will be the respected floor upon which all credit and value will be determined.  the US govt will not be able to squash it because of international trade.  they will instead be desperate for it.  and anyone who has it will be in the catbird seat.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:56 | 6076606 Welfare Tycoon
Welfare Tycoon's picture

I agree that after things settle down and fair democracy holds power that PM's will be the way that currency should be measured. 

My main point of contention here is not against that, but the advocation to use these metals for preparation and during the period of collapse. I do not think that is a viable at this point in time. 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 20:13 | 6076919 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

Most of the paper is virtual.  The paper itself may retain some value after the crash because there is so little of it.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 13:55 | 6076039 wendigo
wendigo's picture

OT: The other day I eneded 8 years of amartphone addiction and got a dumb little flip phone. Got hours of my life back. 

Fuck the system. 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:05 | 6076080 seek
seek's picture

Congrats. Enjoy the battery life measured in weeks and not hours.

Don't forget that just becasue the smart functions aren't there, doesn't mean it's still not a tracking device. Turn it off or "forget" it at home as often as possible, and preferably semi-randomly.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:30 | 6076387 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

It can still be used against you when it's off.  You have to remove the battery.  Hence why iGarbage doesn't allow you to remove the battery and why I'll never buy one.

 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:13 | 6076489 Achilles Heel
Achilles Heel's picture

I was an idiot and bought the first iPhone in June of '06 and stuck around only because I had a 2 year contract on it. Ditched it in '08, (I plunked it in an ice filled drink at a bar one night & never looked back). I figure I've saved 7 years x 12 months, x $100+ a month since then (& I haven't missed it one iota).

 

So pencil me in for $10,000 savings (which I mention to friends sometimes to their astonishment).

 

 

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 07:44 | 6077704 JustUsChickensHere
JustUsChickensHere's picture

You can put it in a Faraday cage when you want to isolate it .....

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:08 | 6076089 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Way to go!

People laugh at my old flip phone, and of course I don't give a crap.

I use it to take and accept phone calls, no f-ing texts, I have that blocked out!

 

 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:33 | 6076265 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Did that last year too and could not be happier (or wealthier). Bought a 'burner' phone for cash and refill with prepaid cards bought with cash. Not that the NSA won't run some super computer check to cross reference me with the contact lists they pick up when hacking the smartphones of anyone I talk to or text...

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:51 | 6076304 BoredRoom
BoredRoom's picture

Never had one, never will

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:27 | 6076377 Oxbo Rene
Oxbo Rene's picture

Ha !
I just threw my "flip" phone in the garbage the other day,
have a landline, but, don't miss the "leash and collar"
AT ALL ! ! ! !

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 19:15 | 6076802 McCormick No. 9
McCormick No. 9's picture

What is a smartphone?

Why is it not as good as a flip phone?

What is a flip-phone?

The other day, I stumbled and reached out to break my fall, and flipped the receiver off of its cradle on top of the phone. It was an accident, but I don't think you're talking about this.

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 12:04 | 6078118 RickyJabbour
RickyJabbour's picture

I admire your dumping of smartphones for the reasons you mention, but there is no way I could run my business without it. Staggering increase in efficiency/productivity with an iPhone. A person just needs to moderate their screen time.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 13:57 | 6076046 Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

I'm still stacking, hard, but I may not live to see this in my lifetime.

I keep thinking to myself, its always darkest before dawn...

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:23 | 6076114 johny2
johny2's picture

this s the twilight zone. the darkest hour is yet to come, or has passed. the fact that USA will be electing Clinton, should be enough to sobber anyone high on hoppium.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:46 | 6076292 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Dude even the Dem hacks know what a lying, elitist bitch Hillary is. Even the free shitarmy knows that she is not one of them. I pray she gets nominated.

Dead money.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:43 | 6076413 daveO
daveO's picture

U prey for it? So does Jeb. Already fixed, imo.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:52 | 6076309 BoredRoom
BoredRoom's picture

Put down the Clinton Crackpipe.....the Chosenites need their flocks of sheeple to believe in Change, so a Republican will win.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:44 | 6076417 daveO
Sat, 05/09/2015 - 21:02 | 6077001 August
August's picture

A Hillary Clinton Presidency will do wonders in destroying what scant credibility the current US political system has.

Give generously, and help elevate Hillary to Leader of the Free World. It may be absurd, but it may be necessary.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 13:59 | 6076053 seek
seek's picture

Kind of naive to believe they'll restrict access to banknotes and not restrict access to gold.

I don't think they'll ban it, they'll just go Operation Choke Point on gold dealers. Shutting down the ability ot exchange fiat for gold is a simple capital control to implement.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:21 | 6076109 Icelandicsaga.....
Icelandicsaga...............................................'s picture

Exactly ...... when they do restrict access to sale of gold especially . the result down he road for both silver and gold will be black market and barter as individuals move to survive. imo .. thing is . in the short term.. is it best to use some of the gold and silver to BUY stuff . a couple sets of tires.. booze.. food for long term storage. .antibiotics.. cleaning products.. plastic bags. anything that may disappear or go pricey .. having that discussion now with wife .. she is Asian and tends to hang onto the metals.. but am worried about how those metals will be limited if fiat disappears .. how will gold or silver be used in transactions if they are restricted as well.. whatta world whatta world.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:02 | 6076331 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Think about this.

Federal law has outlawed sale and possession of marijuana for 80 years.

How's that been working out?

Tens of Billions worth of trade every year just with the small percent of the population who are regular users.

Not to even mention the number of States that have effectively nullified Federal law and have openly defied it.

EVERYONE could use silver to trade daily if they chose to, so if the Feds can't stop the MJ trade in 80 years, what kind of dent could they possibly make in bartering with silver?

On a percentage basis?.0000001%?

Too negligible to register.

The simple fact of the matter is if the people tell the Feds to go fuck themselves, then that's all that is left for them to do.

Lining up civilians and shooting them might tend to really piss off a very large number of just plain ol folks.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:50 | 6076431 chubbar
chubbar's picture

BTW, Utah passed a law legalizing the use of gold as money. You can even pay your taxes using it. (Not sure about silver but wouldn't be surprised if that is also allowed) I think a few other states may be considering similar laws. I think the genie is out of the bottle at this point.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 18:57 | 6076766 RichardParker
RichardParker's picture

shovelhead:

What makes you think the Fed actually wanted to win the war on MJ or "drugs"?

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:13 | 6076353 DollarMenu
DollarMenu's picture

Keep in mind the government's previous successes with prohibition and "The War on Drugs".

Never count "we the people" out.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:34 | 6076397 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

What do you think the odds are that places like Tx, Ut and Wy adhere to federal bans on PMs. Remember, Tx is calling out their National Guard to mirror Jade Helm.

 

I put the odds at about 15%.  It depends on whether the feds back up their little ban with guns and occupation.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 22:06 | 6077160 2handband
2handband's picture

And if the governor of Texas gets too stupid, the federal government will simply call up the national guard... which is ultimately a federal asset. We do not live in a confederacy,

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:22 | 6076112 Bollixed
Bollixed's picture

The US.gov has already set the precedent for confiscating gold back the the 1930s. You can count on them doing it again.

Anything that threatens them, well you know...

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:48 | 6076296 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

They won't seize it. They'll just try to tax ownership of it. Nobody is gonna fall for that shit again.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:49 | 6076423 daveO
daveO's picture

Gold is no longer backing the dollar, but the TAXing ability of the state is. This means transactional taxes, like cigs and booze, on non-black market metal trades. 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:24 | 6076243 ultimate warrior
ultimate warrior's picture

Even if a "ban" on gold or cash would happen the black market would flourish. I remember in 2008 of news stories of small towns actually printing and making their own cash back then already. I think when the real crisis hits small towns could set up their own "banking" system if you had enough trust and intelligence within that community. You could use banned FRN's or new printed cash and back it with gold/silver. You exchange your 100 oz of silver to the "bank" and receive $20,000 in "Montana silver certificates" for example. You would obviously have to find a proper ratio of silver certificates to silver/gold oz's and not over print the certificates to dilute the new money supply.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:04 | 6076072 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

What in the bloody Hell name of gobbledegook did I just read...?   Oh well, the only line that really caught my eye - if only because it reads like a repeat of so many other also-rans when it comes to 'predicting' price movements of gold, was this:

 

"The time is ever nearer when the price of gold will rise in an era of deflation. In due course, though no time soon,..."

 

Translation:

'It's coming, but not any time soon because I'm too chicken-shit to put my credibility on the line and call a time frame, but you can be sure when it does, MY $FUND is where you want to be!   In the meantime, be afraid but make sure you call my firm first and get in on the ground floor of the next Big $Move...'

F'ing Same Old Tired BULL-SHIT.    Own (in your hand) what you think you need and FLUSH these 'fund managers'...

 

 

 

 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:04 | 6076073 conspicio
conspicio's picture

How about "What's in Store for Guns&Ammo when cash and gold are outlawed?" The consumer may win in the short term, but long term wins in times of manipulated scarcity just don't happen. Those lucky Greeks all have their gold to fall back on.......or not.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:18 | 6076503 Achilles Heel
Achilles Heel's picture

What happens is their 'usage' gets upped

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:04 | 6076074 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

The Grey and Black Markets will grow and thrive is my guess. They're very vibran tin the Eastern Block nations and all over the place in Russia. I guess we're heaed for that direction.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:22 | 6076111 seek
seek's picture

My expectation is that it's more likely to go barter-based and be very localized here. IOUs will be the new fiat.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:17 | 6076501 Achilles Heel
Achilles Heel's picture

IOU's? The 'new' fiat? What part of existing derivative leveraged fractional debt money am I not understanding here?

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:04 | 6076077 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

they want to outlaw cash, all they have to do is replace.. the In God We Trust..  with In Government We trust..

 nobody will touch it..  in fact i think they aught to print that on every Bill.. " We Trust Our Government "  real big print, none of that micro print stuff..

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:36 | 6076276 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

God is the state to an absolutist. Ruling by "Divine Right" is the core of absolutist philosophy.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:07 | 6076085 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

The banksters are like pedophiles. They will not stop until-

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:32 | 6076129 Semi-employed W...
Semi-employed White Guy's picture

The banksters are pedophiles.  Fixed it for you.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:08 | 6076090 Big Cox
Big Cox's picture

You’re a slave when you can’t even own your own money!

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:54 | 6076307 philosophers bone
philosophers bone's picture

Which is why I've wonder if there is some legal argument that could be made that being forced to turn over precious metals (real money) in exchange for fiat currency is illegal / unconstitutional.

If everyone has the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, is there a case that the confiscation of someone's property comprising real money in exchange for fraudulent, constantly devalued paper breaches constitutional rights?

You never know.  Get a non-banker, non-Zio, strict constitutionalist judge and the argument might have a chance?

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:56 | 6076321 farmerbraun
farmerbraun's picture

"strict constitutionalist judge"

You've heard of the existence of one and the same ; in recent times?

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:53 | 6076436 daveO
daveO's picture

That argument was made over 150 years ago and here we are.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-money-and-us-constitution-0

If it ain't in your hand....

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:10 | 6076093 Spartacus Rex
Spartacus Rex's picture

Since even the "Euro banknotes" are ponzied fiat derivitives, ergo still wholly in the Banksters' paradigm, then all anyone with a modicum of commonsense can ask is:

WTF is your Point, Napier?

To keep as many as possible trapped within the Global CB's Counterfeiting Con?

Surely Napier's "New & Improved" version of the same old Scam, is going to beat out actual Money, which for thousands of years has been Gold & Silver Coins?

 

It's amazing how many imagine that they possibly can somehow  fix stupid.

 

Cheers,

S. Rex

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:17 | 6076096 cigarEngineer
cigarEngineer's picture

It doesn't matter what the price of gold will be. Uncle Roosevelt already took us down that road before. Gold will go up 200-500%, but not before it's outlawed and confiscated at $700 per oz.

The warning sign will be when they foil a terrorist attack and they find a 1 oz American Golden Eagle on the perp

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:26 | 6076122 Icelandicsaga.....
Icelandicsaga...............................................'s picture

ONLY a fool wil turn it in .. this is not 1933 . and those who hold the metals will not give them up any more than they would give up their guns or ammo. Molan Labe . USSA .. Molan Labe.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:46 | 6076155 wendigo
wendigo's picture

Most people will turn in their guns. Will they drop them off at the local collection point? Maybe not. Will they give them up when SWAT kicks in th door and grabs their family? You betcha. 

They won't resist. Neither will you. 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:55 | 6076173 Bollixed
Bollixed's picture

Unfortunately for the masses history has proved you right. And a large difference between the 1930s and today is the willingness of LEAs to boot stomp the ignorant asleep population. Turning in your neighbors will become just as big a sport in the USSA as it became in East Germany back in the day.

As they say, "You may own it, but you better be the only person who knows you own it."

 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:34 | 6076272 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

+42 for your last line.

Especially when you consider the 50% divorce rates in the US.  And don't forget that even Jesus was turned in for a mere 30 coins of silver.

Plan and act accordingly. 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:01 | 6076452 daveO
daveO's picture

Real silver, of course, that was debased over time. Surprise, surprise!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denarius

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:12 | 6076486 css1971
css1971's picture

 

Jesus was turned in for a mere 30 coins of silver.

500 bucks. Sounds about right.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:00 | 6076180 cigarEngineer
cigarEngineer's picture

I think we could get another 10 or 20 years to build wealth before that happens. I think the only real game plan is to exit the system and be far outside the borders of the USSA. Hide your gold; if people think you have nothing, they will leave you alone. So what are possible destinations? That really beats me. Even New Zealand gov is in Uncle Sam's pocket. If you have papers, maybe Switzerland can stay civil. The countryside of a rising power might be a safe alternative. Australia is close behind USSA, but it's huuuge and unpopulated. What do you guys think?

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:06 | 6076464 daveO
daveO's picture

10 to 20 is optimistic, imo. 2008 was the actual death event. It's now a comatose patient on life support. They are currently raiding Japan's pensions to prop it up. Japan will be the first domino, followed by Europe, with US last. Stay away from black metro areas, like Baltimore. 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:44 | 6076286 TheEndIsNear
TheEndIsNear's picture

Of the 115,610,216 households in the US, approximately 40-45% (47-53 million) have at least one firearm. It would take a hell of a lot of SWAT teams to confiscate firearms from that many households. 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:20 | 6076362 2handband
2handband's picture

They won't need swat teams. Two jackboots with assault rifles are standing in your doorway. Your kids are in the line of fire. Are you seriously going to shoot it out? No, you're going to hand the shit over. So are most of us.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:43 | 6076414 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

That works for a few households and then the word gets out what's going on....

 

Remember, most Americans are NOT vichy Frenchmen and alot of us have a 'leave me the fuck alone' streak a mile wide.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 20:09 | 6076911 2handband
2handband's picture

I think you grossly overestimate the average American. Look, they don't have to go to every house. They make a bloody, messy example of a handful of families and everyone else will be falling asshole over elbow to comply. Me, I'll do whatever it takes to ensure my kids survive. Whatever it takes may very well mean submission.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:21 | 6076363 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

A SWAT team for every house in America for a simultaneous raid?

Yeah, that makes sense. Nobody would know until it's too late.

Because SWAT teams leave that flak jac on 24/7 and nobody knows where they live.

I can tell you don't have anything to turn in except your neighbor who does. Good luck. You'd be second on the list.

Have you ever read what some French resistance fighters did to informers and collaborators? It wasn't pretty.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 18:04 | 6076639 klockwerks
klockwerks's picture

Wendigo, you must not own weapons for protection or you are a troll.  Trying to take anyones  guns would cause many many deaths and most everyone I know would be prepared to stand and go out with their boots on. Give up your gun and where do they take next, your wife or daughter?  I would be using my AK and my wife would be using her AR. Good luck and I hope you or any of us  never have to make that choice.  I guess if you take out their family first they would be a little concerned

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 21:25 | 6077040 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

It is very important that my liberal friends fathom this:  the spark that ignited the American Revolution was gun confiscation.  At this moment in time, over half the population fears this government.  Any serious attempt at gun confiscation will ignite a second American Revolution.  You cannot disarm us.  What you will do is get a lot of people killed in the attempt.  The resulting conflagration will disrupt supply chains and collapse the grid. This war will not be something you watch on television.  It will come through your front door and be fought out in your living room.  I urge you not to do this. 

 

Recent Pew research indicates that roughly one third of Americans own a gun or have access to a gun in their home.  It is estimated that there are enough guns in circulation to arm every man woman and child in the country.  Since President Obama has been elected, Americans have bought enough guns and ammunition to outfit an army of 50,000 men every two days.  With just a back of a napkin calculation, one third of the population would be around one hundred million.   Now if we go by the numbers touted in the American  Revolution,  we can assume that one third of the population would support gun ownership.  Another third would be ambivalent. And the remaining third would support gun confiscation.   Now those that would confiscate guns have no intention of doing the confiscations themselves, they will by depend on the organs of the state to enforce their political will.  According to Wikipedia, there are about one million one hundred thousand law enforcement officers.  Now if we pull another number from the American Revolution, we find that roughly three percent of the revolutionary population participated in the shooting war.  Three percent of one hundred million is three million.  Now if half that number, about 1.5 million, would be willing to use deadly force to defend their lives and property, you would run out of LEO’s in short order.  For the sake of all of us, don’t light this fuse.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:52 | 6076168 Grosvenor Pkwy
Grosvenor Pkwy's picture

Taking cash or gold and silver coins from individuals by force is pillage, which is a war crime under generally-accepted definitions. Since this is already being done in the U.S. by police in traffic stops (highway robbery), it is reasonable to infer that the government is at war against the people, and they are routinely commiting pillage by confiscating property.

So arguing about legalities, such as whether a law may be passed against owning cash or gold, is irrelevant when the government is routinely commiting crimes against the people. The best you can do is preserve your holdings and try to keep them secret if you can. You are already a criminal by their definition, just by holding cash.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:59 | 6076183 cigarEngineer
cigarEngineer's picture

Here is a plausible scenario: they will do a "wealth tax" on gold. If you can't provide stamp duty that you paid your tax, they will come — using the same SWAT raids that are used for "drugs."

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:28 | 6076252 Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

Yes.... Thats exactly why you cant find drugs anywhere in the US.  

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:30 | 6076389 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Exactly.

The brain fail is breathtaking.

"Oh, well. It's outlawed...I guess that's that."

Hell, I see at least 15 biker gangs a day lining up to turn in their meth labs in my small town police station.

I can't imagine the mess it causes in the big cities.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:48 | 6076421 klockwerks
klockwerks's picture

Cigar, but it won't be "here"

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:14 | 6076491 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Unlike 1933, when gold is outlawed the dollar devalues immediately, not after a period of confiscation. Why? Because it is an announcement to the world that gold is money and the dollar value is in question. When dollar devalues then either police/swat pay gets raised to compensate or the gov't loses support of these institutions. Raise the pay, dollar devalues even further due to increasing deficit and outright money printing. Downward spiral, game over. They are trapped and they know it. This is going to be complete chaos and I fully expect the police to bug out while the getting is good. Gold is to retain wealth for the follow on system, not to provide for your family during the crisis. This gov't can pass any law it wants. When the system crashes they are going to be lucky if anyone believes them if they said the sky was blue. The lies that are going to be exposed will be the death of the current crop of gov't officials, imo.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:13 | 6076097 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

stop fearing your banker controlled government and prepare to confront it in anyway required...Gold and Silver WILL retain their rightful throne cause THEY R MONEY...

DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS...

ps: be men god dammit...........

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:15 | 6076101 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

People are dumbass lazy.

just tell them that you can pay by phone, replace all you cards and add them in a app and that they won’t need a wallet anymore.

and than a fashion moron creates a pants that only holds one phone.

 

Believe me... people will cheer...

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:26 | 6076123 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Trading liberty for convenience has never been easier. Just hit that 'agree' button, and viola!

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:31 | 6076393 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

iPants

lol.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:21 | 6076108 Conax
Conax's picture

No cash for the plebes, huh?  Revoke their fokkin charter. I'm tired of their bullshit.

Claw back whatever funds can be justified. Cancel any debt held by the CB.

Issue government greenbacks (without interest) hitched to the GDP, and have the GDP measured by actual industrial, mining, and farming output.

Slap tariffs on goods from slave labor countries that put tariffs on our exports.  Slap the death penalty on gov twats for any sneaky, unreported money printing.

No increased output, no more greenbacks.  It will see us through, rid us of the scourge and then we should try to gradually return the world to hard money, if possible.

Hard money is a prerequisite of Freedom.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:51 | 6076166 Icelandicsaga.....
Icelandicsaga...............................................'s picture

Conax.. for king.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:40 | 6076281 22winmag
22winmag's picture

I'd take a benevolent dicktater over this crap .gov we have now.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:06 | 6076340 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

The problem with benevolent dictators is succession.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:52 | 6076595 headhunt
headhunt's picture

The problem with benevolent dictators is succession."

The problem with benevolent dictators is they are fucking dictators.

 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 19:39 | 6076856 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

the operative word here is "benevolent."

 

I sure as hell would rather have had a benevolent dictator than the trio of morons starting with Clinton and ending with Obama.

Actually it wouldnt be amiss to go back to Johnson

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 21:14 | 6077026 August
August's picture

I believe you're thinking of Grover Cleveland.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 22:52 | 6077253 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

I knew Grover Cleveland.  Grover Cleveland was a friend of mine.

He was slightly skinnier than William Howard Taft.  But not much more fetching.

Sun, 05/10/2015 - 03:26 | 6077531 scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

I can't believe people are wanting dictators.  Look at countries with dictators you idiots, worse place on Earth.

Just because our last 3 or 10 presidents sucked does not mean anyone should want a dictator. 

The first thing they will do is to get rid of the Bill of Rights. Thats what made us great.

Those idiots will get their wish someday. To the detriment of humanity. 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:17 | 6076359 Conax
Conax's picture

Aw shucks, I would need about a year to put things right.

A 10 year moratorium on all immigration, Tort reform,  no income taxes, no property taxes, privatized schools with local schoolboards in control, no DEA, no war on drugs, poverty or the white man, remove about 90% of title 18 crappola, no favoritism for women or gays or minorities, shorter prison sentences in austere but safe facilities, a right to free association, no minimum wage, all wars must be declared by a 2/3 majority of both houses and the King's (Our) approval, financed in advance or no-go, break up the CIA and the NSA, no domestic spying, no DHS, no dual citizen officials and no meddling in other country's affairs, make friends and trading partners around the world and return power to the states and to the people..

I could go on and on, but I'll stop for brevity.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 16:51 | 6076434 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Close enough for me.

Prisoners get the old workfarm. Let the bad boys pay for their upkeep.

Welfare? Heres your cot and here's your work assignment. Don't be late, your dinner depends on it.

I would predict very low recidivist rates and mostly empty welfare barracks.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:18 | 6076505 Conax
Conax's picture

Modern prisons, the homosexual's paradise, are too nice. Internet access, phones, television, air conditioning, college courses, law libraries, socializing all day, hell they eat better than I do..

I would rather we had 2 men to a cell, work in the fields or the shops, go back to your cell, eat rice and beans, shorter sentences, and get out with the idea to never come back.  Too many modern criminals are unafraid of incarceration in these resorts. They know everybody and want to be back on the softball team, lift weights in the gym and get their realtor's license all on our dime.

The only punishment is a bull queer's dick up your ass. Another fag is born.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 22:56 | 6077263 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Since grammar school, I have been told that Fire Island Pines was the homosexual paradise.

Live and learn.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:48 | 6076586 headhunt
headhunt's picture

that is what we have now, as with all dictators it depends who they feel like being 'benevolent' to.

Fuck that sideways

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:25 | 6076119 Anglo Hondo
Anglo Hondo's picture

Maybe it's just the way my mind works, but that whole thing was Comedy Gold.  Especially the bit about "no basement and no machine gun".

Did nobody else see it the same way?

 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:03 | 6076457 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The snark started in the first sentence: The Napier Euro High Yield Capital Guarantee Fund... 

And this was "client facing" writing.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:35 | 6076137 appocean
appocean's picture

and you really don't think they will come for your gold.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:41 | 6076147 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

If cash is outlawed, gold will be even more punitively taxed and/or outlawed, too.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:44 | 6076152 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

We are moving to a cash-less society and it is being tested in Ecuador, where Bitcoin etc has been outlawed. I find it funny that some serfs on ZH talk about their PMs like they'll outwit the elites. What's yours is theirs...

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 14:44 | 6076153 Stanley Lord
Stanley Lord's picture

Calvin Cooledge, said "ten problems coming down the road, nine go in to the ditch" this article belongs in the ditch.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:05 | 6076187 PrimalScream
PrimalScream's picture

LET'S STOP RIGHT THERE.

Forget the gold argument, for the time being.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS ... if cash is outlawed.

Go back to the beginning of America.  Back to the foundation of this country.  If an American family saved its money, they could place that cash in a safe place.  Let's call that place "the cookie jar".  But really, it was wherever the family thought the money was safe.  NOT necessarily the bank.

The point of SAVING money in the Cookie Jar - was to eventually buy important things.  Like some land to live on.  Or some machinery for the farm.  It was a struggle to get there, but ONCE AMERICANS MADE IT .... they were a FREE PEOPLE.  I am referring to Economic Freedom, which is every bit as important as Political Freedom!!

That is the essential point about CASH and SAVINGS.

It always gives Americans the option to be free from debt and to CHOOSE their own future.

If you eliminate cash in society, you eliminate this freedom. You make every American citizen a slave to debt for their entire life.

WRONG!

WRONG!

WRONG!

Americans can never tolerate a financial system that FORCES them to put money in the banking system.  If people want to bank, the choice must be voluntary.

THIS IS A |MAJOR ISSUE FOR AMERICANS.

It's not just a financial issue.

This is about individual liberty and the ability of an American family to save their money in a Cookie Jar, if that's what they choose to do!

 

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:08 | 6076198 Rikeska
Rikeska's picture

Knock Knock time to go to reeducation camp.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 15:28 | 6076254 Grosvenor Pkwy
Grosvenor Pkwy's picture

Cash is already effectively outlawed by anti-money laundering rules, except for small-scale purchases such as cheap restaurants and inexpensive retail items. They can even claim "structuring" when you withdraw cash regularly, if it adds up to a significant amount of money. So it's too late to get indignant about the issue or speculate about the future. The future is now.

One argument that I can think of is that cash really is the property of the government, so they can outlaw it if they wish. However, when they outlaw it, they make its value decline, perhaps to zero, which is probably not the effect that they want. If no legitimate business or store accepts cash, then it no longer has value, since it buys nothing. It becomes just another type of historical relic like Confederate bills.

Electronic money will have value, of course, since it can be used to buy things or pay bills, but the problem is that many people will not have any electronic money, or more likely, will not have enough to survive. Only people operating within the financial system, such as government workers or corporate drones, will be able to operate normally within the electronic money system. Everyone else will either have to be supported on government hand-outs, or black market. This will create a "virtual ghetto," with people needing to rob or loot just to survive. It's not surprising that we saw rioters stealing toilet paper, because if you need toilet paper and you have no money whatsoever, you are not thinking about stealing high-value items. You are just trying to get by day to day.

If even small amounts of cash are outlawed, people will shift to something else for private transactions. Many people would have no way to survive otherwise. According to myth, containers of Tide detergent are used as currency among drug dealers in the ghetto, which if true, is a good illustration of this principle. These people are not going to worry too much whether U.S. dollars or Tide detergent are made illegal, since they are operating 100% black market anyways.

Personally I would not consider Tide to be a good form of currency, since it is too bulky and heavy, so they must be rather desperate to use it. Small "junk silver" coins strike me as a much better form, since silver dimes or quarters are small and light, but represent a reasonable sum of money for small-scale transactions. You could buy a loaf of bread for a dime, or a can of coffee for a quarter, approximately. People would work out the exchange rate rather quickly if necessary.

Sat, 05/09/2015 - 17:50 | 6076593 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

Agree just need to add as has been shown by the bankster class "why would you want to leave your money with thieves"?

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