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The 'Lumbering' US Economy
While Crude and Copper get all the glory, the fact is, as we have detailed previously, Lumber prices are the most correlated with economic activity (ISM and GDP) of all industrial commodities. That is quickly becoming a major problem for the "Q1 was weather and now we get the epic bounceback" narrative writers.
Now where have seen this before?
Or this...
And for good measure, builder remain oblivious to their key raw material's diminished demand (or mal-invested supply)...
It's just a matter of time, as we detailed previously.
But consensus sell-side economist dreams remain oblivious...
But perhaps it's time to start paying attention to Lumber and The Atlanta Fed model...
Charts: @Not_Jim_Cramer
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UH OH! Hope you have plenty of gold for when the US government taxes your savings!
Local governments are doing a pretty good job of jacking up property taxes each and every year, so you're damned if you do, damned if you don't, and it's getting harder to move with your feet these days.
Think renting is the solution? Maybe, but you're still paying someone else's property taxes with that monthly check....with no tax write-off either.
I bought rural land for 1500 bucks at auction last July. Just got a letter from the county that they revalued it at 58,000. So called fair market value
tell them you find the Buyer and it's sold... otherwise it's bullshit
Somebody had to say it.
(see below)
Robert A. Heinlein's novel Number of the Beast has an interesting take on property taxes and their assessment.
Basically the owner is allowed to assess the value of their own property, BUT they catch is that if someone comes along and offer's double the assessment then the owner is legally obligated to sell. This is the incentive to not value the property too low and at least pay some tax, but at least it's out of the hands of government.
And in this version of the world property tax is the only tax. Not bad in my opinion, it's one of the only taxes I actually agree with, that and tariffs and a few "sin taxes" such as gambling, cigarettes, etc.
Well Mr. 37, you must work for the government. I've got 3 properties in 3 different counties and the county has never done nuthin. 2 of them are in the country and the county does even less than nuthin. At least I got an exemption after 5 frickin years of running livestock on one of them. Yeah. 5 years before I get the exemption. That county has less than 4500 people and the tax office has at least 6 people working there, maybe more. Give me an Eisenhower break Micky.
Exactly my point. Houses in my area I'm looking at, say selling for a 200k asking price (after 60k in markdowns over the past year) are still tax "assessed" into the 300's, basically 2006 prices and they haven't come down. When you look at late 90's tax rates on the same properties they are halved.
The Katy ISD in Texas voted in a billion dollar bond for expansion and improvements...
Katy is a suburb of Houston, not huge, gargantuan Houston.
Billion with a capital B. Why would anyone in their right mind want to take that school tax burden on?
At least Katy has some growth and is a suburb to Houston. Marshall ISD has more square footage than it needs. The school board has underspent the state average and neighboring districts on plant maintenance and operations since 2010 and banked the difference. The schools look terrible but they are structurally sound. Rather than vote to renovate the buildings and get rid of the school board, the voters passed a bond to bulldoze and rebuild all but one of the elementary schools and the junior high. The two board members who were up for re-election received the overwhelming number of votes. And this is coming at a time when the district is set to lose about 20% of its taxable base. The board said the tax hike wouldn't exceed $0.29/$100. A few days ago, their PR guy said that the bonds might not be sold as quickly as previously planned so that the tax goal could be maintained. I figure a whole lot of people may lose their triumphant attitudes when their kids spend the next several years in the same school buildings that the school board let fall into disrepair.
Most violence by Americans against government during the Depression was due to property taxes.
In one southern county some vigilantes, nobody knows who, started going around killing off one pol or crat at a time with an anti-tax symbol left at the scene. If the country didn't budge on taxes, they'd kill another. Then suddenly the country saw the light and property taxes were lowered and relief came to the people.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission.
"Violence solves nothing, and being that government is nothing but violence, violence then solves government."
Sometimes the old school way of doing things is the ticket.
If it didn't get so damn cold in the winter I'd live on a boat in a slip in a marina...
Lumber graphs give Tyler a woody.
I remember my high school teacher telling his students about his retirement plan. He bought soem acreage and planted lots of expensive trees on it. By the time he is ready for retirement the trees could be harvested for wood. I always that was a neat idea. It's at least a good way not to depend on the corrupt system.
I still don't have enough money to do that, but hopefully I will some time (thanks student loans!). I have been paying those off as fast possible. I pick up a few ounces of silver here and there when the spot prices dip. We all need to take responsibility for our own wealth. We can no longer rely on social security, 401ks. pensions or other 'traditional' retirement plans. People need to go back to the real traditional ways to preserve their wealth. That is of course having real assets that hold their value in the long term. Gold, silver, and land are three that come to mind.
I wish I knew more about these things when I started my adult life. I wouldn't have ever taken any student loans. At least I have awoken at a somewhat young age. I try to educate the younger generations out so they don't make the same mistakes. I actually educated my younger cousins today on the value of silver and the dollar this afternoon. They will be getting a candle with a silver coin (www.etsy.com/shop/ScentSavers) for their graduations and birthdays! Hopefully they will learn before they make some decisions that will impact the rest of their lives.
Are you talking about negative interest rates? That will come from the bankers. Not much different from the government like you mentioned above. The bankers control the government. Right now I think silver is the better buy, due to the gold-silver ratio. But you do have the capital gains tax in America. Unless of course you live in Puerto Rico, which also only has 4% income tax (total).
TTTIIIIIIIIIIMMMMMMBBBBBEEEERRRRRRRRR
long beavers...
i like short beavers.
looks like a good fwd indicator, unless gdp can be printed; oh shit, it is already being done. print moar-digital of course, would want to distort lumber demand, ha...
if fiat was real paper money, the fucking chart would be a moon shot hyperbolic chart making the chinese hockey stick thing look like a limp dick.
Well, that's the long and the short of it.
What savings would those be are you referaring to the toilet paper with dead presidents on it? I prefer my precious
What savings would those be are you referaring to the toilet paper with dead presidents on it? I prefer my precious
cool - cheap lumber to build a deck off the refrigerator box I will soon be living in.
Multi family ?
ok - I was ashamed to admit it. I'm moving back in with my parents in their refrigerator box. It's cool though; it's an old GE Monitor Top box from the 30's. Grandpa lived in it as a child during that practice recession that happened before the real one we have now.
We never left the recession
Tax rates will never be raised by the FED
I wish lumber prices were falling. At the end user level, they sure aren't. Still sitting exactly at last year's peak price.
Do you live on Easter Island? All commodity prices are depressed across the board.
commodity prices are depressed...
I was wondering when lumber prices were finally going to be noticed.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=LB
No, I live in the real world of "end users" as I specified in my posts.
I have no idea what the wholesale price is, but I know for sure that the retail price has not changed at all. Zero.
is a 2 by 4 still 2.44 at hd? what, now 2.39. hmmm like gas. bonus tyme.
all i know is that treated fence posts are up +50% over the past few years. A flipping 4x4x8' post is damn $9.17. A tiny sheet metal vent cover is $12. That my friends is outrageous! clownbux ain't worth jack shit anymore.
Look at this link Buzz. Shop 4x4x8 TOP CHOICE TREATED at Lowes.com
when i enter my zip code it says $7.57 but that is bullshit because i paid $9.17 just the other day at Lowes. they must be price gouging because of the tornado.
Welcome to the club Buzz. Forward Soviet>
They probably caught my link, and adjusted the price. Keep your receipt, and demand Justice!
PAY ATTENTION to the label on pressure treated wood now.
The small print tells you to keep it off the ground.
I replace 4x4x8 PT all the time on my privacy fence since they're rotting.
Should have tarred them, or just shot the fucking neighbor.
grrrrrrrrr
While I'm bitching...
Found a package of light bulbs marked 60W on the garage shelf.
That fucking TINY PRINT on the bulb says 43W.
THE BIG PRINT on the package says 28% more efficient.
That shit makes me bat crazy, everything is the result of somebody trying to screw me, and SUCKSEEDING.
I'm all for proper labeling: Consumption should be labeled as Watts. Output should be labeled as Lumens. Done deal. No more of this "equivalent to" crap.
PS-- steel Postmasters are absolutely the "do it once and never do it again" option. Forget metal round posts,however.
Use redwood, the king of outdoor lumber.
Or its cousin, western red cedar, is next best.
Never use ACQ if there is an alternative. I see a lot of these that are dead after 5 years in the ground.
If a tree fell in the forest and nobody was there....would it make a sound?
The economy's doing fine, but don't let that keep you from breaking out your space blanket and Mountain House freeze-dried foods. Best to log off now so you're not tracked and apprehended on account of your being a part of the resistance.
If you hear a knock at the door - or crashing glass - quickly swallow whatever gold you have on hand. When it comes out the other end, hopefully you'll have your bug-out bag in hand.
Need more QE. I can't breathe.
Mistah Magoo - Awesome comment.
lumber sales are reflective of homebuilding and small apartmemt buildings. pre 2008 lumber prices were in a downtrend for almost 2 years already, presaging the real estate bust. since then the price went back to the prebust price without the commensurate change in demand. maybe there is real price discovery here as lumber yards stop ordering logs. funny that the 1 mil new units that used to be the benchmark for a housing recession is now the ceiling in a recovery.
what is amazing is that after 8 years of recession with 1.5 million new households being formed every year since that it still looks like basement space is prime real estate
As a contractor in West Michigan who has enjoyed a boom in resent years. I am here to tell you its coming. Drawing board activity is already dropping.
I really liked the Petoskey area when I went through there a couple summers ago, and would consider living there were it not for Michigan's 6% state income tax. Yuck. That's actually worse than Maryland's.
The good thing about a state income tax is that if you get sick and can't work, your not paying tax on that income. Not so good if you get sick or laid off in Texas, because the tax assessor still wants that property tax, dead or alive...
$235 for a thousand board feet of #2 SYP would almost be acceptable if you could really get #2 SYP. The crap they try to sell you these days is as bent as a puppy's penis. Ya' gotta' look at every board.
Stannyberry just said the best investment was a home because of the impending allowance of the YUAN as the next great reserve currency coming in October. I guess that's ok if you can afford to live in it and not sell it. With local taxing entities on an ever increasing upward tear and the job picture doing the Texas nosedive, it could be risky. I mean, who would you sell to if you had to??
We have been seeing more yellow pine around here. Can not even build a fire with that crap wood.
We need moar Gov't like we need moar illegal , under skilled immigration. But I repeat myself.