Merkel Under Pressure To Let Greece Go As Default Risk Rises

Tyler Durden's picture

In case you forgot, Greece is on the brink of insolvency and without an agreement with creditors in the very near future, will default on its obligations to either the IMF, the ECB, its own citizens, or all of the above. The most pressing concern is a €750 million payment due to the IMF on Tuesday, a payment Greek FinMin Yanis Varoufakis says Athens will make, although it doesn’t seem as though anyone has a clear idea about exactly where the money will come from.

The important headlines from last week included an apparent split between the IMF and the rest of the Troika on what constitutes an acceptable list of reforms, a report that Greek banks were being cut off from interbank trading, and news that Varoufakis had distributed a Greek recovery “blueprint” containing estimates and assumptions that bore little resemblance to figures presented by PM Tsipras and his reshuffled negotiating team. 

Now, with less than 48 hours to go until three quarters of a billion euros comes due to the IMF, Greece faces marathon negotiations on Monday with eurozone FinMins including the incorrigible, hot-tempered Wolfgang Schaeuble who made a splash on Saturday when he suggested that Athens may default “by accident” if the government continues to vacillate. 

Via FAZ (Google translated):

Federal Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has warned of the possibility of surprising Greek default. "Experiences elsewhere in the world have shown that a country can suddenly slip into insolvency," Schaeuble told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS). He wanted a date in his first newspaper interview since detailed months but not speculate.

 

When asked whether the government had made preparations for such an eventuality, he said: "There are issues that can not answer a sensible politician. Otherwise there will be misunderstandings. Jean Claude Juncker once said, one must not take it then sometimes the truth always as accurate. I see these things more complicated. Therefore I say to prefer nothing at all. "

And while Schaeuble indicated that if Greece left the euro it would not be “because of” Germany, Bloomberg is reporting that Chancellor Merkel’s own party bloc now supports a Greek exit. Here’s more: 

Members of Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc are openly challenging her stance of keeping Europe’s most-indebted country in the 19-nation currency region. Even some officials in the Finance Ministry are leaning toward the conclusion that the euro area would be better off without Greece, two people familiar with the matter said.

 

“The euro would be strengthened if Greece left,” Alexander Radwan, a Merkel-affiliated lawmaker who voted for granting Greece a temporary extension of its bailout in February, said in an interview. “The other countries could then move closer together and apply the rules more strictly.”

 

With European finance ministers due to resume talks on Greece on Monday, hardening sentiment in Germany risks sending mixed signals to investors as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government attempts to reach a deal with creditors.

 

Merkel has repeatedly voiced public support for keeping the country in the euro, partly for geopolitical reasons. Other officials in her government view Greece as a rule-breaker and a drag on the region’s economy, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing the deliberations.

 

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, a prominent German advocate of European unity for decades, has given plenty of signs of exasperation with Greece since Tsipras and Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis took office in January on an anti-austerity platform.

Clearly, any statement from the Eurogroup on Monday has the potential to move markets, but we would also note that the ECB last week reserved judgement on hiking haircuts on collateral pledged by Greek banks for ELA until after tomorrow's meeting. So although there's probably room to extend and pretend from a political perspective, any move by the ECB to tighten the screws on the Greek banking sector could cause the situation to deteriorate rapidly and indeed, if an ECB ELA decision that's ostensibly designed to push negotiations forward inadvertently causes a bank run with negotiations still stalled, Schaeuble's "accidental" insolvency may well become reality. 

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TeamDepends's picture

Let 'er rip Angela, let's get this thing started.

HowdyDoody's picture

Drop the khazar 4th reich ambitions and let European and Asia countries trade freely within the contient

back to basics's picture

*** GREEK DEFAULT IS VOLUNTARY THEREFORE THERE IS NO TRIGGER OF CDS

- ISDA

 

:) 

Motorhead's picture

Man, where's Goldman Sachs when you need them to assist the Greek government with astute financial planning.

kliguy38's picture

their work is done.........hehehehe

walküre's picture

after the 7th year they rested

Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

i sure fucking hope international diplomats dont rely on Google translations, or its WW3 any minny now

FrankDieter's picture

The squid will benefit either way, make no mistake.

Lore's picture

Emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) and monetary policy (c/o ECB Website)

"Euro area credit institutions can receive central bank credit not only through monetary policy operations but exceptionally also through emergency liquidity assistance (ELA). ELA means the provision by a Eurosystem national central bank (NCB) of 1. central bank money, and/or 2. any other assistance that may lead to an increase in central bank money, to a solvent financial institution, or group of solvent financial institutions, that is facing temporary [???] liquidity problems, without such operation being part of the single monetary policy."

Translation: Strip and loot the wealth of a nation, drive its real economy into the ground, pile on new layers of debt, and call it "Assistance."  

Thirtyseven's picture

Voluntary?  I'm going to need an explanation on how that's so.

Also going to want to know how CDS will or won't be triggered.  I'm admittedly no expert on the topic, so I'd like to hear from you and your take on it.

USisCorrupt's picture

The BS they make up by the day is just amazing.

 

Let the whole POS system COLLAPSE already!

snowlywhite's picture

why in Heaven's name would I want to compete with SE asians who make a 5-20th of my wage? If they settle for a bowl of rice, it should be their problem, not mine.

jonytk's picture

why, because soon all your jobs will be outsourced there, like happened on the US...?

Thirtyseven's picture

TPP bitches.  NAFTA was nails in the coffin.  This'll be the 'thud' of being dropped into the ground, roses thrown on top followed by the back hoe.

USisCorrupt's picture

Let's NOT forget the clause that gives all the money needed to TAKE YOUR GUNS when the TPP is passed.

 

King Obummer has your back, pushing that knife in DEEPER!

HenryHall's picture

Default sooner is better than default later. If those are the only two options.

vote_libertarian_party's picture

...and it is already 'later'. 

 

$360B in loans that are know of.  What is off balance sheet?  $0...$1T???  Who knows.

CarpetShag's picture

Murkle has to call Washington DC for her orders first.

CarpetShag's picture

Check her speeches on Crimea and Russian sanctions if you want a quick answer.

Thirtyseven's picture

All for show, just like the occasional US politician who makes a speach about Gaza or the West Bank.  All for show.

Thirtyseven's picture

Getting there.  In time, in time.

Joebloinvestor's picture

She doesn't have to call, they are already listening.

Jack Burton's picture

Merkel is owned by the CIA. If she crosses them, they have her records from her time as an East German agent. She would not last another day in office of CIA released her file to the German public. Most European leades are first swept up by the NSA, then the dirt is sent to the CIA, they then have a talk with the EU leaders and ask them if they want to stay in power. If the answer is yes, then the CIA hands over a brief on what they can and can not do, and what is needed for them to do. Ask Denmark, ask Sweden, or others. Their leaders are totally under control. If they dare break out of the CIA playbook, they either get their careers destroyed in the press, if that is not possible, they have a plane crash.

As Paul Wellstone. When told to back the Iraq war, he said no. He died shortly there after in a plan wreck. The instument landing system was tuned off in a total white out ground fog. Imagine that. Who turned it off, nobody knows. But FBI agents made it to the rural wilderness crash site, BEFORE the local rescue squad, who had four wheelers and knew the area. How did Minneapolis FBI get hundreds of miles into a remote wilderness? Nobody knows. What works in America, works in Europe.

HowdyDoody's picture

The Russians probably have even more detailed records.

USisCorrupt's picture

Jack you understand well.

 

Just like when Obummer care was passed by Chief Justice Roberts, they have him too.

mvsjcl's picture

Intelligence services are government control apparatus.

Yen Cross's picture

  If you listen really close, you can hear all the deck chairs sliding from right to left on the U.S.S. EuroPanic... The rats are loading into the last of the lifeboats.

smukster's picture
smukster (not verified) Yen Cross May 10, 2015 5:22 PM

It's amusing. Many here, the Tylers included, understand so much about numbers - and so little (if anything) about European politics. Don't believe the hype...

Yen Cross's picture

 You mean the dissemination of euros from one country to another, after transactions.

 Ex; Buys BMW in Spain but lives in Italy. (wants to pay cash for new BMW)

 .eur.gov > no cash< can't settle the transaction, because the car is cheaper in Italy than buying it in Germany.

 Is that the "FREE trade" you speak of?

holdbuysell's picture

Default is impossible, Just ask ISDA. /s

 

Thus, the mantra of TBTF/J:

 

KEEP CALM

AND

KEEP SELLING THOSE CDS

bcking's picture

Jeez, let them default already. It's gonna happen anyway.

Lea's picture

Juncker does NOT want to hear about a Grexit. This is going to be a bloodbath.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11583755/Anglo-Saxon-world-...

Grab your popcorn.

debtor of last resort's picture

"Marathon negotiations"

You can say that again.

NoTTD's picture

The irony meter is off the dial.

lester1's picture

So will a Greece default be bigger or smaller than the Lehman bros default?

Fukushima Fricassee's picture
Fukushima Fricassee (not verified) lester1 May 10, 2015 3:45 PM

Will be the biggest since Leman, either way.

smukster's picture

It _would_ be miles bigger.

localizer's picture

"accidental" insolvency, lol - nothing is accidental with finance and especially with BIG finance...

Grosvenor Pkwy's picture

An interesting new definition of "suddenly." Hasn't this been cooking for the past 5+ years?

Rehab Willie's picture

Russia signs 20 year lease for 750 million to dock Mediterranean Fleet in Mykonos, problem solved.

NoTTD's picture

One cannot "suddenly slip into insolvency" when one is already completely bankrupt.

 

Shorter Schnauble: Someone might notice Greece is bankrupt.

Counterpunch's picture
Counterpunch (not verified) May 10, 2015 3:10 PM

no real question that the Greeks would be better off without the EU/IMF and embracing the brics

--

OT - feisty comments!

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/10/us/campus-debates-on-israel-drive-a-we...

drink every time you see the word 'antisemite'.

falak pema's picture

the Germans have to sink together with the others (and thus free themselves and the EU of Pax Americana heritage)  or swim alone ...If they be oligarchs who feel they rule the world like the Hohenstauffens of old then they SWIM and DAMN the others; its time the EU chose its MINDSET.

Mutti must choose between Adenauer's knee bending to US or De Gaulle's independence to forge EU's model of tomorrow.

JimmyRainbow's picture

next stage of tragedy:

going to war for bankrupt ucraine

so that our brothers and sisters there can join the flourishing leftovers of the eurozone

ah and that joe bidens son can get the oil there

wow. that is all so fucked up.

wmbz's picture

This circle jerk will keep right on going!

mt paul's picture

throw another goat on the barbeque

it's all good...

Watson's picture

>>>
The most pressing concern is a €750 million payment due to the IMF on Tuesday
<<<

If payment not received, Merkel will offer German guarantee of payment.

I do not say this is sensible, or a good idea for German taxpayers.
It is, however, what will happen.

There is absolutely no way Merkel will allow her dream of a United States of Europe to die, if there is a way that German taxpayer funds can keep the dream alive.

If you want a Greek default, _Greek_ (not German) politicians have to make it happen.

Watson