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'Resilience' Is The New Black
Via Raul Ilargi Meijer's The Automatic Earth blog,
This is another essay from our friend Dr. Nelson Lebo III in New Zealand. Nelson is a certified expert in everything to do with resilience, especially how to build a home and a community designed to withstand disasters, be they natural or man-made, an earthquake or Baltimore. Aware that he may rub quite a few people the wrong way, he explains here why he has shifted from seeing what he does in the context of sustainability, to that of resilience. There’s something profoundly dark in that shift, but it’s not all bad.
Nelson Lebo III: Sustainability is so 2007. Those were the heady days before the Global Financial Crisis, before $2-plus/litre petrol here in New Zealand, before the failed Copenhagen Climate Summit, before the Christchurch earthquakes, before the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP)…the list continues.
Since 2008, informed conversations on the economy, the environment, and energy have shifted from ‘sustainability’ to ‘resilience’. There are undoubtedly many reasons for this shift, but I’ll focus on just two: undeniable trends and a loss of faith. Let me explain.
Since 2008, most of the pre-existing trends in income inequality, extreme weather events and energy price volatility have ramped up. Sustainability is about halting and reversing these trends, but there is essentially no evidence of that type of progress, and in fact the data shows the opposite.
Plenty of quantitative data exists for the last seven years to document these accelerated trends, the most obvious is the continually widening gap between rich and poor everyone else. The second wave of commentary on the Baltimore riots (after the superficiality of the mainstream media) has been about the lack of economic activity and opportunity in many of the largely African-American neighbourhoods.
Tensions have been simmering for years (decades) and overzealous police activity appears to have been just been the spark. This should come as no surprise to anyone who has read The Spirit Level, or any similar research on the correlation between wealth inequality and social problems.
You can only push people so far before they crack. For residents of Baltimore’s disadvantaged neighbourhoods the inequities are obvious. People are not dumb. We can see the writing on the wall, and know for the most part that government on every level has not taken significant steps to embrace sustainability be it economic, environmental or social . To me it seems we are running on the fumes of debt on all three: over-extended financially on nearly all levels; over-extended on carbon emissions (and post oil peak); and a powder keg of social unrest waiting for a tipping point.
Which brings me to my second point: a loss of faith.
For most of my adult life I have banged the drum for sustainability. I don’t anymore. Sustainability is about voluntarily balancing three factors: human needs, environmental health, and economic viability. My observation is that it has been a failed movement and that the conversation has naturally shifted to resilience.
These observations do not come casually. I have worked full-time in the environmental/sustainability/resilience field for twenty-five years and I have a PhD in science and sustainability education.
Dennis Meadows, a well-known scientist who has been documenting unsustainable trends for over 40 years, puts it this way:
The problem that faces our societies is that we have developed industries and policies that were appropriate at a certain moment, but now start to reduce human welfare, like for example the oil and car industry. Their political and financial power is so great and they can prevent change. It is my expectation that they will succeed. This means that we are going to evolve through crisis, not through proactive change.
This is the same quote that Ilargi recently highlighted here at The Automatic Earth. Clearly it resonated with me.
This is not to say we cannot and should not be proactive. It is more about where we direct our ‘proactions.’ Being proactive about resilience means protecting one’s self, one’s family, and one’s community from the trends that make us vulnerable economically, socially and environmentally, as well as to sudden shocks to the system.
The recent earthquake in Nepal is another reminder of the critical importance of resilience. Before that it was Christchurch and Fukushima. In the wake of earthquakes we often hear about a lack of food and water in the effected area, along with disruptions to energy supplies in the wider region. In Nepal these have lead to significant social unrest.
Whether it is Kathmandu over the last month or New Orleans after Katrina, we know that we cannot count on “the government” for significant assistance in the immediate aftermath of natural disasters. Along the same lines, we cannot count on governments to protect us from unnatural disasters such as the TPP and TTIP.
Whether it is a potential earthquake or the next mega-storm and flood, the more prepared (ie, resilient) we are the better we will get through. Even rising energy prices and the probable effects of the TPP will siphon off money from our city and exacerbate social problems in our communities.
In most cases, the same strategies that contribute to resilience also contribute to a more ‘sustainable’ lifestyle. But where for most people sustainability is largely abstract and cerebral, resilience is more tangible. Perhaps that’s why more and more people are gravitating toward it.
Resilience is the new black.
A resilient home is one that protects its occupants’ health and wealth. From this perspective, the home would have adequate insulation, proper curtaining, Energy Star appliances, energy-efficient light bulbs, and an efficient heater. By investing in these things we are protecting our family’s health as well as future-proofing our power bills. Come what may, we are likely to weather the storm.
Beyond the above steps, a resilient household also collects rainwater, grows some of its own food, and has back-up systems for cooking and heating. When we did up an abandoned villa in Castlecliff, Whanganui, we included a 1,000 litre rain water tank, three independent heat sources, seven different ways to cook (ok, I got a little carried away), and a property brimming with fresh fruit and vege. These came on top of a warm, dry, home and a power bill of $27 per month. (We did it all for about half the cost of an average home in the city.)
A loss of power and water for two or three days would hardly be noticeable. A doubling of electricity or fresh vege prices would be a blip on the radar. During the record cold week in 2011 our home was heated for free by sunshine.
Sustainability may be warm and fuzzy, but resilience gets down to the brass tacks.
Above all else, I am deeply practical and conservative. The questions I ask are: does it work?; is it affordable?; can I fix it myself?; and, importantly, is it replicable? Over the last decade I have developed highly resilient properties in North America and New Zealand. All of these properties have been shared as examples of holistic, regenerative permaculture design and management. We have shared our experience locally using open-homes, workshops and property tours, as well as globally through the internet.
When the proverbial sh*t hits the fan, which all the trends tell us will happen, I know that I have done my best to help my family and community weather any storm be it a typhoon, an earthquake, rising energy prices, or the TPP.
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When cash is outlawed, only outlaws will have cash.
When growing vegetables is outlawed...
Affordable Free Energy is not far away, trust me on this one...
Then it becomes a war of the elite vs the masses worldwide...
(Because people aren't just going to take the BS money wars..)
The US is not sustainable, Russia is resilient.
“Energy Star appliances, energy-efficient light bulbs, and an efficient heater. By investing in these things we are protecting our family’s health as well as future-proofing our power bills. Come what may, we are likely to weather the storm.”
Sorry, but I have to laugh at that... If you think “Energy Star” appliances make you resilient you have no fucking clue where this is going.
Better investments would be a wood stove, freeze dryer, and commercial water distiller.
Don't forget the solar panels.
I think Taleb's term anti-fragile is the best.
It perfectly describes a system like a mosquitoe's wing for example, soft and pretty indestructable.
I think we out to build anti-fragile systems...
Very fragile, SEquence 19 is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzESrhRrkTI
Agreed, the concept of "anti-fragile" seems the most accurate description.
What's for certain is that we have witnessed something of a paradigm shift take place during the Great Financial Crisis.
for non -you- folks, what is doable is to buy products they use regularly, in advance while keeping expiration dates in mind. What is most likely, is disruption of delivery for any number of reasons, and product availability and price will be the impact.
DC voltage appliances .....
As someone who owns and has built actual resilient homes... Energy Star appliances and new drapes are flaming indicators of a Shinola salesman who really doesn't get it, and thinks a little polish is going turn Pakistani waterbuffalo into Florentine calfskin.
You don't turn a Ford Pinto into a Volvo by hanging a green Christmas Tree from the rear view mirror to cover the stench.
You bought a lemon - deal with it or junk it.
Your house will never be resilient, no matter how many appliances or self help books you buy - deal with it or burn it down.
If you want a resilient home or society, there is only one option - Burn the fucker down, and rebuild it right.
I'm glad someone understands, it's just sad that it's gonna end like this....
https://youtu.be/Q4oInT79CUk
"Affordable Free Energy" already exists, it always has. It was wood at the beginning then oil. The problem is that population catches up with the energy available until it becomes unaffordable. What we have is a population problem, not an energy problem. Reduce population and you'll see the price of oil go through the floor!
See ya in London. The macro calendar is light. ;-)
Ain't no guns allowed in NZ. Good luck to the gentlemen when all those nice people I saw in the movie "Once were warriors" come to visit his survival abode.
You are mis-informed about guns: here in Godzone you can have as many as you want.
What you cannot do is take the law into your own hands and use the guns on people.
There is no automatic right to kill someone in "self-defence"in N.Z..
Thanks farmer B - so is there a semi automatic right ?
:-)
I think Taleb's word, antifragile, is the better new black. Make it so if something breaks your recovery is stronger. So, for example, if the USD fails to store value, switch to gold.
I don't disagree with Mr. Lebo III here, but seriously, if you're outperforming everyone else, you better hide your shit well.
When Obama tries to transform United States of America into a Brussels hell hole. He may become JFK JR in a radical tolerance sense. That's why Al Sharpton is always looking for his next meal ticket. We sit back and watch two negro's figure it out.
If they fail, goodbye racial baiting liberal cunts.
don't piss in the headwinds
Sustainability / resilience is denial. No preparations will save us from what is coming.
Clowns on acid - You might be confusing NZ with Australia. NZ has 22.6 firearms per 100 residents - a fairly high rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country
In NZ we aren't allowed handguns or military style semi autos without a permit. We ARE allowed as many semi auto rimfires, centrefires and shotguns as we want, along with the usual bolt actions etc. We have always been allowed silencers / suppressors (are you allowed them in the USA ?).
BTW re: suppressors, I use suppressed rifles all the time, especially for goat control - mobs of them find it very difficult to locate the shooter. Check out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppressor#Characteristics for more info.
Utica - I stand corrected mate. Cheers.
Anyone else see the story about the algos running Riviera Tool Co from under a penny to $.60 because Tesla bought a tool company called Riviera. Turns out the algos ran the wrong stock up of course. The off exchange Riviera tool stock was from the previously bankrupt company which went private.
Man, less than a penny to $.60 in a few minutes. Stock of a company that doesn't even exist. China can't touch the absurdity of the US stock exchange.
Once again the best play is to buy penny stocks that are similar to buyout candidates and hope you make a trade that doesn't get cancelled.
Great article at the beginning analysing the social shift from sustainability to resilience. I thought it would move on to concepts such as Nassim Taleb "Anti-fragile" but unfortunately no, it goes into the survivalist nonsense. Too bad.
Yes, sure we should all prepare. Here in Japan, we do. The earthquake risk ensures that. But beyond a couple of weeks, if society around you desintagrates, we also understand that there is little you can do on your own.
More importantly, history shows that society NEVER desintegrates into nothingness. The Zombie apocalypse is nothing but a hollywood dream. In reality society always devolve to a lower level of organization. And in a modern society there are many possible levels below. Which means that what will really count after a few months is your worth for others, your network of contacts and the people you can count on to help you find a place in the new "order".
Most survivalists will not survive, not through lack of duck tape or "ammo" but due to their inability to function in "normal" society, even if what is left of it is substandard. Put another way, however well equipped your house is, if your can't take an appointment with a dentist when needed, what use will be your food below?
We need more articles such as the first part of this one on complex social and economic problems, fewer on individual self relience such as the second part. These are not realistic.
LOL..Most Amerikans need help changing a light bulb,and an entire roll of shit paper to wipe their ass..to think they are going to transform into a nation of eco-efficient,off grid survivalists is preposterous
Most big-city CAUCASIAN Americans? :-)
The most 'resilient' are those who already live in basic cultures. The least resilient are the ones who depend on a steady and timely (JIT) supply chain for energy, goods and services.
Less is more, simple is good. Real life skills and more self-sufficiency that is based on Local assets and skills is key, for these people are best positioned to withstand Perturbations, Dislocations and Upheavals.
They are also best positioned to endure and propagate their gene pool and cultural heritage.
Sounds like native Americans until the white man came.
The state organised white man was able take everything they had.
It is almost impossible not to notice the global financial system is anything but resiliant.
The global financial system should contain problems locally but it does the polar opposite.
It blows up local problems and turns them into global problems using derivatives; eg US sub-prime.
James Rickards in Currency Wars gives some figures for the loss magnification of complex financial instruments/derivatives in 2008.
Losses from sub-prime - less than $300 billion
With derivative amplification - over $6 trillion
The global financial system is not fit for purpose.
Not actually dying like a dog in the immediately foreseeable future is the new black.
Nary a word about the real causes that force people to become resilient. I guess that being a toady of the powers that be pays well. He cannot speak against his masters.
Sounds like this author read Taleb about antifragile.
Read Dimitri Orlov if you're interested in resiliency.
After Resiliance comes "Perseverance" and then it's, "Suffer Birchez."
"A resilient home... would have adequate insulation, proper curtaining, Energy Star appliances, energy-efficient light bulbs, and an efficient heater."
AND a clothesline.
AND shade trees. (Small trees can provide shade too, and cause less damage if blown over by a wind storm.)
AND if possible a garden, a solar water heater, a well, and a septic tank.
AND would not be built on a coastline, where rising ocean levels will increase flood levels and wave velocity.
AND would not be built where there are repeated forest fires.