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Less 'Goldilocks', More 'Three Bears': Bullion Bid As Stocks & Bonds Skid
The correlation between stocks and bond yields continues to have regime-shifted to approach -1 (not 1 - as is more 'normal') confounding asset allocators and risk parity funds across the market...
This seemed appropriate...
If that analogy didn't help, maybe this will clear things up...
Small investor, shown here on right, with cash on the sidelines, waiting to dip her toe into the stock market waters. pic.twitter.com/3oNwFej4Rj
— Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) May 13, 2015
Gold and Silver were the big movers today... Gold's highest close in 3 months (3rd biggest day of the year), Silver highest close in 6 weeks (3rd biggest day of the year)
But stocks and bonds continue to be sold...
Leaving Trannies ugly for the week...
After decoupling today once again...hugging the flatline from shjortly after the open...
Futures show the real volatility took place before the open...
On the week, Treasury yields are dramatically higher (thioug below yesterday's peaks) though we note the significant title in the curve with 2Y -2bps, and 30Y +6bps...
Which sent curves soaring...
The USDollar legged notably lower on the poor retail sales data extending its losses to over 1.1% for the week... (worst day for the USD since 3/20)
JPY had its strongest day (carry unwinds continue) in 2 months...
Here's why... (via none other than Gartman)
To end our discussion of the forex markets, we think it is time to return to an old friend: long of the English speaking currencies/short of the Yen and we shall do so en masse this morning, buying the US, the Canadian, the Aussie and the Kiwi dollars against the Yen upon receipt of this commentary. We shall have stops on the trades individually in tomorrow’s TGL, but we’ll give them 2% against us as an initial stop point.
Commodities very mixed with oil down,copper flat...
With crude pumped after another draw but dumped after production rose once again...
* * *
Gold and silver had quite a day - pushing the former above stocks YTD and the latter best for the year...
and bonds are having their worst year since 2009...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: ETSY! bwuahahah.... From $35.74 highs, down 45% now to today's low of $19.50 (on its way to the $16 IPO price)
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well head of DB fixed income left to "walk the earth" .. repent.
http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2015/05/deutsche-banks-head-of-fixed-income-...
Take a look at various transports:
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_36831761.png
not looking hot.. looks like a fracture in the Tranny's .. is coming.. then BTD.
GOLDILOCKS VS. DREADLOCKS
I will huff, and I will puff, and I will blow your graph down.
Sell in may and go away, far far away.
wow.
YIKES!!! can I still get you to BTFD?
ETSY.....On its way to 0. What a crock of shit.
Really? I thought the future of the world was in handcrafted sock monkey puppets. Oh well.
You're stomping on my dreams there pal.
Artisinal toast!
Giving unemployed ex girl scouts a job since 2005
I'm finding I get very depressed when reading ZH...I think its because ZH gets me too close to reality.
Don't be depressed young son. When there is no more cold beer at the corner store, thus you should worry.
Til then, cheers, bottoms up and or bottoms where ever they fit.
I will say it again having posted it a week or so ago...AU is sick of the range its been in for the past months...if not a year or more...Sick of it I tell ya...shades of when it was stuck in the six hunge range...and mogambo over at 321gold was...lamenting..
All the shiny is blinding me. I better jump into the market now, before it goes up again...
Keep stacking?
one sick futher mucking thingy called markets. bipolar skizzophenic mofo zombified daytripper....
“My Dark Pool” from “My Old School” by Steely Dan
I remember kissing good fills bye-bye
When they’d route me to those wolverines under Barclays’ veil
If I were king, I’d think it justified
To toss those smirking jerks in a federal jail
I was trading with the boys upstairs
When I heard about the whole affair
I said "Oh no, Barclays LX won't do now"
Well they set us up so HFTs just drooled
And I'm never going back to that dark pool
Virtu Financial has a long losing streak
That’ll be the day I meet again with Barclays Sales
You tried to warn me ‘bout Tradebot’s data feeds
But I never took time to read my e-mails
Their ‘Liquidity Profiling Service’ blows
Was gonna shove it down their greedy throats
She said "Oh no, IEX is for you now”
The bank let flash boys play us for such fools
And we’re never going back to that dark pool
Appreciate the effort, Keltner. Nice.
We just need more cowbell.
"Life is a highway, I'm gonna play that cowbell all night long"
More cowbell never hurts...
another overnight ramp commences,,,?
My bowl of porridge tastes like a central banking turd. There's a old woman living in a shoe who serves better meals without TPP Trade sectarianism.
Buyibg DGLD already. Will buy more at 1225.
Gold cannot go much higher (or lower). If it does...it will probably be the end.
"Long of the English-speaking currencies/short of the Yen......."
Is English Gartman's second language or something? He has the WEIRDEST way of phrasing things.
Like Yoda with a bourbon habit.
Long Dong Silver, bitches!!
Just keep printing money around the globe and sooner or later some currencywill crash and if it is a big one like the dollar then gold will soar.
The gold supply is very limited but there is no limit to much governments can print money.
Piling
is the new stacking
long fermented walrus flippers
Stocks, bonds, dollar all lower. So where'd the capital go?
Shake Shack!
According to Credit Suisse:
http://personal.crocodoc.com/waAog87
The Money Market Under Government Control
The Fed’s new Reverse Repo (RRP) facility could get big – very big – as interest rates start to rise, despite what Fed officials have been saying. The facility has been trending around $150bn, roughly 1/20th of the level of bank reserves.
A much larger RRP facility – think north of a trillion – would represent the endpoint of an evolution that began before the crisis, when large dealer repo books stood between institutional cash pools and leveraged carry trade investors to…
after the crisis, when bank balance sheets were expanded by both reserve assets and deposit liabilities created by QE to…
the future, when government-only money funds grow to hold large volumes of RRPs as assets and issue fixed-NAV shares (money) to institutional cash pools.
What are institutional cash pools? Think corporate treasuries and the cash desks of asset managers and FX reserve managers. Their demand for short-term, money-like assets has had a strong secular growth for several decades.
New regulations have constrained some investors in terms of what they can buy, and many institutions, in terms of what they can (profitably) issue.
History shows that when financial innovation occurs or rules change, the least constrained players grow.
In contrast to banks and dealers that face various charges on capital and balance sheet, and prime funds whose shares have lost “moneyness” due to regulation, government funds are relatively unconstrained.
They will likely grow, fed by an RRP facility that may grow much larger and become a permanent fixture of the financial system. In our view, this would herald the arrival of an era of financial “RRPression” in the US money market where the sovereign dominates and dealers play a supporting role – the inverse of the pre-crisis state of affairs.
While this shift would undoubtedly reap massive financial stability benefits, the main reason why the RRP facility might need to get much bigger is not financial stability related, but rather revolves around the Fed’s potential inability to control short-term interest rates in an era where Basel III and banks satiated with excess reserves hinder monetary transmission.
Why pay attention to this plumbing stuff?
Because the infrastructure of markets determines which trades can profitably be done, and which institutions will grow in importance over time.
This piece marks a return to our prior focus on shadow banking and the global financial system (see references at the end).