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Q2 GDP Forecast Cut To 0.7% By Atlanta Fed
Zero Hedge first brought attention to the Atlanta Fed over two months ago, when the first massive divergence between bullish consensus and objective reality appeared. Since then it has been nothing but a downhill race for reality, with consensus scrambling to catch up. Moments ago, the Atlanta Fed just cut its Q2 GDP forecast once more, this time to 0.7% from 0.8%. This is on the back of a Q1 GDP which as of this moments is around -1.0%.
From the Atlanta Fed:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 0.7 percent on May 13, down slightly from 0.8 percent on May 5. The nowcast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 2.6 percent following this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
This means that the consensus will once again have to scramble and consult the Oracle Stone in their catch down to the Atlanta Fed.
It also means that the first half US GDP print will be negative and all else equal, would suggest a technical recession. It also means that for 2015 full year GDP to print at a "growing" 2.5%, the economy will have to grow at 5% or higher in both Q3 and Q4.
Good luck with that.
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What's going on in Atlanta, why are they getting so "truthy" all of a sudden?
Raise Rates!!
Keep Stacking.
RIPS
What's going on with gold? Up $23!
how 'bout dem falcons....
I'm just amazed the entire Atlanta FED hasn't suffered a massive nailgun accident from telling the truth.....
The CDC can take care of it under the radar....
believe it or not, from here I always got the impression that there are a couple of FEDs that often disagree with "Mama" NY-FED on several points
the St. Louis FED, for example, has an excellent research section (full of truthiness), as far as I could gauge: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
problem is that the only FED regional office that is "driving the car" and manipulating the living bejesus in futures market is the NY FED. that's why it is paramount to restructure the FED (end it would be better) and fragment the power structure ($) into different regions. the dudley has access to 98% of the FED's assets, no one else is relevant.
dudley do wrong that pos
Are you suggesting that there really is no honor among theives?
Well, that's one thing we can agree on.
ZH once brought a very interesting article about the dozen FEDs during the 30's, when the "US Gold Prohibition" started. in short, they were very near to a break-up
So, same as it ever was then. This is not surprising at all considering the fact that there are many parts of the country that are claiming to be very wealthy on paper, but that are in reality morally and in terms of real assets/resources bankrupt.
Demographics and the laws of Nature and physics will rule the day. No surprise to me why states like Texas and Utah were selected to be "hostile" states in the Jade Helm "excercise". Why would troops need "training" in an urban American environment if the government didn't think that's where the next battle would be fought? We are, in fact, the Soivet Union 2.0, just coming at it from a different perspective.
Maybe the jews might be concerned.
http://www.allacronyms.com/JEW/Joint_Electronic_Warfare
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Information_Operations_Warfare_Center
...Located at Lackland AFB, Texas...
After all Texas does act like it is it's own country.
isn't .7% a little too optomistic?
What's saying that a mere .7 is even accurate?
If you assume inflation is understated by at least 2% (and it is), you'd be a -1.3%. And about -3% for the 1st quarter when final revisions come in.
Recession? We're already there. A recession within the overall depression.
already there......if u mean by already there since 15 yrs ago or so.., than we can agree....
And that is if you believe the CPI number they are putting out. Remember it is seasonally adjusted as well.
QE4 is more probable than raising rates at this point. ZIRP bitchez!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h56UaFEpCOw
I want the 3.5 gdp I was promised.
We might get close if we start adding hookers and Coke dealers to the calcs.
I want my Obama-truck... NOW!
you were promised 4% growth.....if you voted for obama and his "stimulus" (Christina Romer)
(btw, they're asking for "infrastructure investment" again....)
even that is absurd horseshit.
-------
holy fucking shit: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/14/world/middleeast/vatican-to-recognize-...
They're setting the stage for QE4. Revenge of the son of the BernankenYellenStein monster.
WHAT 4!?
It doesn't work.
DUH!
That won't stop them. It hasn't before.
Double Duh!
QE-Chicago
QE-Detroit
QE-California
there are a LOT of QE's on the way....
Organic" growth..
Pick your definition . . .
In a 1975 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was two down consecutive quarters of GDP.[3] In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten. Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5-2 percentage points rise in unemployment within 12 months.[4]
In the United States, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[5] Almost universally, academics, economists, policy makers, and businesses defer to the determination by the NBER for the precise dating of a recession's onset and end.
In the United Kingdom, recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP.[6][7] The exact same recession definition applies for all member states of the European Union.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession
before 1907, this kind of things had a very simple name: Panic. Like the Panic_of_1907, also called The Banker's Panic
The head of the Atlanta Fed will be replaced with someone more inline with promoting phony numbers shortly if this keeps up....
What's funny is that there is no downside to being wrong about forecasting because the fed props the market up anyway. It's like some sort of malinvestment in information gathering.
Let's sing a song called MOAR!
So...is bad news still good news? Bad news now bad news? Ugh, I need a good algo to teach me or do all the work.
Does anybody know a good description abt the Atlanta Fed model? tq guys - PS.: The share of voice in the media is rising for them, nearly beating the FED St Louis w/ their chart Tool ;)
Fast-track is the road to revolution. To protect American jobs and the interests of middle class Americans and US taxpayers, millions of Americans will fight the transfer of America’s estates and wealth to multinational corporations that have no allegiance to the United States.
Ironically, Obama chose Nike as a company to make his pitch for fast-track trade. As if Nike would hold its jobs in the US - when Americans now realize that US workers made only 1 percent of Nike product and the company laid-off a third of its US workforce last year. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich said Nike hasn’t made a shoe in this country since 1984. And he called Nike “a symbol of global sweatshop labor.”
Senator Barbara Boxer voting to sustain a Democrat filibuster against fast track, explained that nations such as Vietnam and Peru would be included in the pact: “Tell me, what chance do our people who work in manufacturing have against countries paying less than $1 an hour?” She said she was tricked into supporting fast-track authority for NAFTA under Bill Clinton. She said that promoters promised 1 million new jobs but the deal wound up costing 700,000 jobs, including 86,500 in California, as companies moved their manufacturing to Mexico.
She said Mitsubishi officials had promised to keep making big-screen TVs in Santa Ana even after NAFTA, but within three years had relocated over the border.
As the multinationals in their powerful partnerships with China steal more and more of the fruits of American labor and innovation to line their pockets, the road to revolution, which will eventually enlist millions of Americans against a banker-controlled government, opens wider and wider.
"She said she was tricked into supporting fast-track authority for NAFTA under Bill Clinton." (Barbara Boxer)
Substitute purchased for tricked and one would be a little closer to the truth.
philadelphi Federal Reserve has a quarterly survey of "professional" forecasters ... per the pros Q2 GDP (latest release february 13th) ... the envelope please ...
+3.0%
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey...
Like, so what? Buy moar!
www.traderzoo.mobi
Wonder what the next cut will be to?
welcome to slavery circa 2015. $12/hour cradle to grave with no retirement. im surprised how easy 'the people' are accepting this. 'the people' are making the .1%ers proud.
"'the people' are making the .1%ers very rich and powerful" - fixed.
When you have multinational companies like Nike - that has 1% of its production in the US - and still provide all of the benefits claimed by US corporations, including protection of their many outlying tentacles by the US Marines, then you have destroyed the American labor market.
No labor market and the support of multinationals through US taxpayer subsidies and monopoly agreements with the US Congress translates to a nation without a future.
DEFINITION of 'Multinational Corporation - MNC' A corporation that has its facilities and other assets in at least one country other than its home country. Such companies have offices and/or factories in different countries and usually have a centralized head office where they co-ordinate global management.
Are we all forever to be held hostage to silly US-centric government "data"? Who cares? Most of the world's real production and consumption goes on OUTSIDE that country.
Sometimes it seems all our financial futures are forced to depend on some one idiotic marginal midwest car buyer from Indiana or Ohio...
Que the smoke, mirrors, magic beans, pixie dust, Yellen babble....
They are selling alot more pot in Colorado every month.....good for the school kids and its great to have your employees high all day....way to lower the standards America
Jewish political theorist and sociologist Herbert Marcuse of the infamous Frankfurt School of Western Marxist critical theory and founder of the New Left said that the youth of America would be disarmed through a combination of sex and drugs. He then set about, with his cohorts, making them happy, non-productive people who wouldn’t fight wars.
According to Marcuse, “stoned hippies make lousy soldiers and will not oppose your aggression elsewhere throughout the globe.”
So why does this government employ people like Marcuse? Control: “You can neutralize the best and brightest on the campuses (with the poisoned candy of drugs and sex packaged in an attractive musical coating) so they don’t really think about what you are doing…
“There will still be plenty of poor and uneducated people to use as cannon fodder.”
Teenagers who smoke cannabis damage their brains for LIFE and may be more likely to develop schizophrenia | The Daily Mail
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2377581/Teenagers-smoke-cannabis-damage-brains-LIFE-likely-develop-schizophrenia.html#ixzz2sm7YKJNN
starve the beast
stop buying worthless made in China crap
with failed fiat dollars.
Velocity of the currency, or lack of velocity
will kill the Fed based beast...
Do not fear the beast for it is a man behind the curtain.
There'd be almost nothing left to buy!
And I made one attempt to buy merchandise with a Gold Eagle (risky but I was confident)... no takers. At the time it was valued at about $1500. The amount in question was about $15 FRN.
GDP another bullshit number of paper pushing. Don't like the number add in hookers and blow, double count R&D, throw in artistic creation. Why not just shuffle money back and forth between government entities? Banks can just shuffle fiat between one another for services rendered.
Are bureaucracies shuffling paper back and forth creating real wealth or value? Is blowing shit up training military personal creating GDP? Yes. Is it creating any real weath for anyone other than a small amount of people, no.
So bullish!
Mario Draghi at IMF Headquarters in Washington to B.S. about how great everything is going.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/weekly/html/index.en.html
SHTF in Sept. 2015!!
TROUBLE in September! UN Launches World Agenda as Pope Calls Religions To Lead it! All Coinciding on the Blood Moon Tetrad Weekhttp://beforeitsnews.com/prophecy/2015/05/heads-up-in-september-un-launc...
The Atlanta Fed do not do IPOs and M&A activity - they can accordingly afford to tell the truth.
Can someone please save this piece for the upcoming weekend report on all things FX and dollar-bull related for M2M...? I'm curious how his 'JOLTS' data, soaring auto sales, $USD primacy, the Fed raising rates and Q2/3/4 with 4% 'growth' is poised to set the record straight on this current 'transitory' situation...
Thanks in advance -
Declining exports and rising imports are pretty good indicators of a slide in GDP growth.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/u-s-deflationary-evidence-continues-t...
trillions in qe for 0.7% gdp, verizon buys aol for 2,000,000,000.00 we are in phd luney land..... speaking of land, 200 acres + 200 ranchers, off the grid, dictating gov't capital expenditure and policy, and set aside 1.5 billion for the comming storm....