Q2 GDP Forecast Cut To 0.7% By Atlanta Fed

Tyler Durden's picture

Zero Hedge first brought attention to the Atlanta Fed over two months ago, when the first massive divergence between bullish consensus and objective reality appeared. Since then it has been nothing but a downhill race for reality, with consensus scrambling to catch up. Moments ago, the Atlanta Fed just cut its Q2 GDP forecast once more, this time to 0.7% from 0.8%. This is on the back of a Q1 GDP which as of this moments is around -1.0%.

From the Atlanta Fed:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 0.7 percent on May 13, down slightly from 0.8 percent on May 5. The nowcast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 2.6 percent following this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

 

This means that the consensus will once again have to scramble and consult the Oracle Stone in their catch down to the Atlanta Fed.

It also means that the first half US GDP print will be negative and all else equal, would suggest a technical recession. It also means that for 2015 full year GDP to print at a "growing" 2.5%, the economy will have to grow at 5% or higher in both Q3 and Q4.

Good luck with that.

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LawsofPhysics's picture

What's going on in Atlanta, why are they getting so "truthy" all of a sudden?

Deathrips's picture

Raise Rates!!

 

Keep Stacking.

 

RIPS

Took Red Pill's picture

What's going on with gold? Up $23!

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I'm just amazed the entire Atlanta FED hasn't suffered a massive nailgun accident from telling the truth.....

ejmoosa's picture

The CDC can take care of it under the radar....

Ghordius's picture

believe it or not, from here I always got the impression that there are a couple of FEDs that often disagree with "Mama" NY-FED on several points

the St. Louis FED, for example, has an excellent research section (full of truthiness), as far as I could gauge: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

madbraz's picture

problem is that the only FED regional office that is "driving the car" and manipulating the living bejesus in futures market is the NY FED.  that's why it is paramount to restructure the FED (end it would be better) and fragment the power structure ($) into different regions.  the dudley has access to 98% of the FED's assets, no one else is relevant.

buzzsaw99's picture

dudley do wrong that pos

LawsofPhysics's picture

Are you suggesting that there really is no honor among theives?

Well, that's one thing we can agree on.

Ghordius's picture

ZH once brought a very interesting article about the dozen FEDs during the 30's, when the "US Gold Prohibition" started. in short, they were very near to a break-up

LawsofPhysics's picture

So, same as it ever was then.  This is not surprising at all considering the fact that there are many parts of the country that are claiming to be very wealthy on paper, but that are in reality morally and in terms of real assets/resources bankrupt.

Demographics and the laws of Nature and physics will rule the day.  No surprise to me why states like Texas and Utah were selected to be "hostile" states in the Jade Helm "excercise".  Why would troops need "training" in an urban American environment if the government didn't think that's where the next battle would be fought?  We are, in fact, the Soivet Union 2.0, just coming at it from a different perspective.

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Maybe the jews might be concerned.

http://www.allacronyms.com/JEW/Joint_Electronic_Warfare

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Information_Operations_Warfare_Center

...Located at Lackland AFB, Texas...

After all Texas does act like it is it's own country.

ZH Snob's picture

isn't .7% a little too optomistic?

valley chick's picture

What's saying that a mere .7 is even accurate? 

NoDebt's picture

If you assume inflation is understated by at least 2% (and it is), you'd be a -1.3%.  And about -3% for the 1st quarter when final revisions come in.  

Recession?  We're already there.  A recession within the overall depression.

smlbizman's picture

already there......if u mean by already there since 15 yrs ago or so.., than we can agree....

twh99's picture

And that is if you believe the CPI number they are putting out.  Remember it is seasonally adjusted as well.

Burt Gummer's picture

QE4 is more probable than raising rates at this point. ZIRP bitchez!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h56UaFEpCOw

Jameson18's picture

I want the 3.5 gdp I was promised.

SHEEPFUKKER's picture

We might get close if we start adding hookers and Coke dealers to the calcs. 

Headbanger's picture

I want my Obama-truck... NOW!

onewayticket2's picture

you were promised 4% growth.....if you voted for obama and his "stimulus"   (Christina Romer)

(btw, they're asking for "infrastructure investment" again....)

Counterpunch's picture
Counterpunch (not verified) May 13, 2015 10:37 AM

even that is absurd horseshit.

-------

holy fucking shit: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/14/world/middleeast/vatican-to-recognize-...

Dr. Engali's picture

They're setting the stage for QE4. Revenge of the son of the BernankenYellenStein monster.

Headbanger's picture

WHAT 4!?

It doesn't work.

DUH!

Dr. Engali's picture

That won't stop them. It hasn't before.

 

Double Duh!

EmmittFitzhume's picture
“Only The Stock Market Matters” - Greenspan
onewayticket2's picture

QE-Chicago

QE-Detroit

QE-California

 

there are a LOT of QE's on the way....

davidalan1's picture

Organic" growth..

Bob's picture

Pick your definition . . .

In a 1975 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was two down consecutive quarters of GDP.[3] In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten. Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5-2 percentage points rise in unemployment within 12 months.[4]

In the United States, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[5] Almost universally, academics, economists, policy makers, and businesses defer to the determination by the NBER for the precise dating of a recession's onset and end.

In the United Kingdom, recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP.[6][7] The exact same recession definition applies for all member states of the European Union.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

Ghordius's picture

before 1907, this kind of things had a very simple name: Panic. Like the Panic_of_1907, also called The Banker's Panic

SERReal1's picture

The head of the Atlanta Fed will be replaced with someone more inline with promoting phony numbers shortly if this keeps up....

i_call_you_my_base's picture

What's funny is that there is no downside to being wrong about forecasting because the fed props the market up anyway. It's like some sort of malinvestment in information gathering.

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists's picture

Let's sing a song called MOAR!

cordial savage's picture

So...is bad news still good news?  Bad news now bad news?  Ugh, I need a good algo to teach me or do all the work.

Spielbank's picture

Does anybody know a good description abt the Atlanta Fed model? tq guys - PS.: The share of voice in the media is rising for them, nearly beating the FED St Louis w/ their chart Tool ;)

JR's picture

Fast-track is the road to revolution. To protect American jobs and the interests of middle class Americans and US taxpayers, millions of Americans will fight the transfer of America’s estates and wealth to multinational corporations that have no allegiance to the United States.

Ironically, Obama chose Nike as a company to make his pitch for fast-track trade. As if Nike would hold its jobs in the US - when Americans now realize that US workers made only 1 percent of Nike product and the company laid-off a third of its US workforce last year. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich said Nike hasn’t made a shoe in this country since 1984.  And he called Nike “a symbol of global sweatshop labor.”

Senator Barbara Boxer voting to sustain a Democrat filibuster against fast track, explained that nations such as Vietnam and Peru would be included in the pact: “Tell me, what chance do our people who work in manufacturing have against countries paying less than $1 an hour?” She said she was tricked into supporting fast-track authority for NAFTA under Bill Clinton. She said that promoters promised 1 million new jobs but the deal wound up costing 700,000 jobs, including 86,500 in California, as companies moved their manufacturing to Mexico.

She said Mitsubishi officials had promised to keep making big-screen TVs in Santa Ana even after NAFTA, but within three years had relocated over the border.

As the multinationals in their powerful partnerships with China steal more and more  of the fruits of American labor and innovation to line their pockets, the road to revolution, which will eventually enlist millions of Americans against a banker-controlled government, opens wider and wider.

rejected's picture

"She said she was tricked into supporting fast-track authority for NAFTA under Bill Clinton." (Barbara Boxer)

Substitute purchased for tricked and one would be a little closer to the truth.

 

Bell's 2 hearted's picture

philadelphi Federal Reserve has a quarterly survey of "professional" forecasters ... per the pros Q2 GDP (latest release february 13th)  ... the envelope please ...

 

+3.0%

 

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey...

vegas's picture

Like, so what? Buy moar!

 

www.traderzoo.mobi

Mike Honcho's picture

Wonder what the next cut will be to?

rccalhoun's picture

welcome to slavery circa 2015.  $12/hour cradle to grave with no retirement.  im surprised how easy 'the people' are accepting this.  'the people' are making the .1%ers proud.

LawsofPhysics's picture

"'the people' are making the .1%ers very rich and powerful" - fixed.

JR's picture

When you have multinational companies like Nike - that has 1% of its production in the US - and still provide all of the benefits claimed by US corporations, including protection of their many outlying tentacles by the US Marines, then you have destroyed the American labor market.

No labor market and the support of multinationals through US taxpayer subsidies and monopoly agreements with the US Congress translates to a nation without a future.

DEFINITION of 'Multinational Corporation - MNC' A corporation that has its facilities and other assets in at least one country other than its home country. Such companies have offices and/or factories in different countries and usually have a centralized head office where they co-ordinate global management.

Kreditanstalt's picture

Are we all forever to be held hostage to silly US-centric government "data"?   Who cares?  Most of the world's real production and consumption goes on OUTSIDE that country.

 

Sometimes it seems all our financial futures are forced to depend on some one idiotic marginal midwest car buyer from Indiana or Ohio...

Thisisbullishright's picture

Que the smoke, mirrors, magic beans, pixie dust, Yellen babble....

 

youngman's picture

They are selling alot more pot in Colorado every month.....good for the school kids and its great to have your employees high all day....way to lower the standards America

JR's picture

Jewish political theorist and sociologist Herbert Marcuse of the infamous Frankfurt School of Western Marxist critical theory and founder of the New Left said that the youth of America would be disarmed through a combination of sex and drugs. He then set about, with his cohorts, making them happy, non-productive people who wouldn’t fight wars.

According to Marcuse, “stoned hippies make lousy soldiers and will not oppose your aggression elsewhere throughout the globe.”

So why does this government employ people like Marcuse?  Control: “You can neutralize the best and brightest on the campuses (with the poisoned candy of drugs and sex packaged in an attractive musical coating) so they don’t really think about what you are doing…

“There will still be plenty of poor and uneducated people to use as cannon fodder.”

Teenagers who smoke cannabis damage their brains for LIFE and may be more likely to develop schizophrenia  | The Daily Mail
Read more:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2377581/Teenagers-smoke-cannabis-damage-brains-LIFE-likely-develop-schizophrenia.html#ixzz2sm7YKJNN

mt paul's picture

starve the beast

stop buying worthless made in China crap

with failed fiat dollars.

Velocity of the currency, or lack of velocity

will kill the Fed based  beast...