The US Is In Recession According To These 7 Charts

Tyler Durden's picture

The evidence continues to mount...

"Most since Lehman" has become the new meme for macro-economic data in the US as day after day brings another lacklustre superlative to be dismissed with some excuse by the cognoscenti of sell-side economists...

 

 Of course, that is aside from anything related to aggregate jobs that is spewed by the government's official ministries of truth... (do not look at this chart)

*  *  *

So here are seven charts that scream "recession" is here...

Retail Sales are weak - extremely weak. Retail Sales have not dropped this much YoY outside of a recession...

 

And if Retail Sales are weak, then Wholesalers are seeing sales plunge at a pace not seen outside of recession...

 

Which means Factory Orders are collapsing at a pace only seen in recession...

 

And Durable Goods New Orders are negative YoY once again - strongly indicative of a recessionary environment...

 

Which is not going to improve anytime soon since inventories have not been this high relative to sales outside of a recession

 

In fact, the last time durable goods orders fell this much, The Fed launched QE3 - indicating clearly why they desperately want to raise rates imminently... in order to have some non-ZIRP/NIRP ammo when the next recession hits.

*  *  *

And just in case you figured that if domestic prosperity won't goose the economy, Chinese and Japanese stimulus means the rest of the world will save us... nope!! Export growth is now negative... as seen in the last 2 recessions.

 

And deflationary pressures (Import Prices ex-fuel) are washing upon America's shores at a pace not seen outside of a recession...

 

*  *  *

But apart from that, given that US equities are at record highs, everything must be great in the US economy...

 

Wait a minute.

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1000yrdstare's picture

Hidden DEpression..

 

fixed

 

clooney_art's picture

Do these terms have any meaning anymore ? Recession, Depression, Great Recession, Inflation, Deflation. The Federal Reserve has distorted everything and nothing has any meaning anymore.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Well said.  Prices are now to be understood like the drawling of a drunk.  The distortion in speech is caused precisely by toxic liquidity in the drunk's circulatory system.  "Why don't you have another drink?" says the man buying the drinks.  And when the drinker passes out completely in the alley, his pockets will be rifled and his body worked over for anything real to snatch.

Hype Alert's picture

But but but, when Obamacare finally kicks in, we'll be saved. 

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Yes, we will abandon the drunk on the steps of the doctor's office so that they can check his hearing, and test for allergies to pollen, and promptly charge his insurance. 

eclectic syncretist's picture

No fuckin' shit the US is in recession/depression.  The real story is that the Fed is all out of powder and powerless to pull the economy out of it. Print to fucking infinity and beyond Yellen, you asshole idiot lying sociopathic parasitic lackey for the devils minions.  It will only prove what you really are.

Automatic Choke's picture

I didn't see the "number of bums on street corners asking for handouts" index.

Son of Loki's picture

It's the Best of Times for Bankers, Wall Street and Insurance Companies and the Worst of Times for the "Everyday Amerikans."

 

Long Cardboard Box Houses!

pelican's picture

Recession? But the party in DC has not stopped nor been interrupted!

jeff montanye's picture

obamacare?

obamadon'tcare.

MonetaryApostate's picture

We can cry all we want, these people aren't going to stop the terrorism, wake up people, before it's too late...

http://galeinnes.blogspot.com/2015/05/imagine-tomorrow.html

TheReplacement's picture

Drove through Boston today.  Most panhandlers since Lehman.

Solosides's picture

Wrong Index

 

You're looking for "number of tent cities popping up under local bridges"

Im seeing a new one pop up every week here in Seattle, business is BOOMING!

Solosides's picture

Wrong Index

 

You're looking for "number of tent cities popping up under local bridges"

Im seeing a new one pop up every week here in Seattle, business is BOOMING!

AldousHuxley's picture

Central bankers completed their mission of saving the too big to fail banks and government institutions by buying their bonds. Bankers and government workers have never had it better.

 

MonetaryApostate's picture

Print money while everyone else is starving, due to liquidity crisis they created, and then buy up everything at fire sale prices....

 

Just another day of Banker Terrorism...

BeaverCream's picture

Dude, cmon "drawling"?  You're killin me.

Oh wait you meant actual drawling not drawing spelled wrong by someone who can't speak properly...gotcha.

Osmium's picture

Ya knw, it may hve jst ben a typing error, not a speling error.

froze25's picture

The terms still have the same definition that they always have you just simply need to ignore the people that your are told to trust on the TV or take everything they say and apply the opposite meaning.  To quote the infamous Willie Wonka, "Strike that and reverse it".

ejmoosa's picture

Let's add property rights, marriage, freedom, constitution, and Republic to that list.

JuliaS's picture

"People have been bullshitted by the system into believing that if you change the name of the condition, somehow you'll change the condition."

- George Carlin

froze25's picture

I like referring to them as Jeb Clinton and Hillary Bush to push the point that they are the same.

Pickleton's picture

This story is a lie!  It just has to be because liberals keep reminding me that Obama has been an economic miracle on the US.

mtndds's picture

Must keep the illusion alive until after the election.  Need to keep Obama looking good until then.  

gatorengineer's picture

Sorry Barry goes under the progressive bus long before then.  Trade was just the bumper....

Fukushima Fricassee's picture
Fukushima Fricassee (not verified) SuperVinci May 13, 2015 12:49 PM

No fucking Obama either . You know that fat assed drag queen Mooch has designes on that shit as well as thier fucked up spoild tweens.

Dick Gazinia's picture

Hey slow down there buddy.  Michelle is a gorgeous fashionable first-lady who is in the style of Jackie Kennedy.  At least thats what I hear from all the MSM.

Cruel Aid's picture

no bush/no clinton:

need a neither of the above.

which one is the turd sandwich btw?

Frank N. Beans's picture

It's not a recession until they put that pink shading on all these charts as in previous recessions.  duh!

disabledvet's picture

well, everything else has failed. Could at least normalize and show confidence in all the bullshit.

Or we can laugh out balls off while Chicago goes belly up I guess.

No such thing as "importing deflation." We're importing inventories...which as they build cost money since any item sitting on the shelf not being sold in fact COSTS MONEY.

Bring on the defaults would appear...

ThroxxOfVron's picture

The just in time economy dies if we don't buy everything just as soon as it is produced.

Misallocation of resources has been redefined as a 'demand' deficit.

The truth is: the citizenry don't want to go into debt to buy junk they don't neeed from avaricious corporate vendors who practice wage/environmental arbitrages and lobby for subsidizations and bailouts paid by our own income taxes.

The neo-globalist merchantilist consumption model is dying.

yrad's picture

I agree.. Let's Volker this shit!!

XAU XAG's picture

It's just an 8 year itch.................nothing to worry about! 

 

To most .......................we never got out of the last 2 DEpressions!

 

 

In the end we will scratch ourselves away.

Money Boo Boo's picture

When was the US not in recession?

 

It's been papering over its recession for decades with fake bubbles, S&L, Tech & Housing bubbles and now a giant QE bubble.  The last time the US wasn't in recession was 1944, which coincided with a major World War.  Something it's been trying to start again for the last 25 years. Gotta love that engine for growth and relentless pursuit of profit.

Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Indeed.

GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)

If you take the (Government deficit spending) out of the equation; we never left the 2008 - 2009 'recession'...

 

Captain Willard's picture

Exactly!

The increase in the US national debt since 2009 probably exceeds nominal GDP growth since 2009. It's so blindingly obvious. The Ministry of Propaganda and all the Keynesian economists refuse to even consider it.

froze25's picture

They can't consider it if they did and admited they are wrong than all of the models they have been using since 1913 would be exposed as one GIANT mistake, in short thier world would collapse and the whole fiat system with it.  They will never admit the Keynesian economic theory is wrong for that very reason.

TeethVillage88s's picture

I want to say TPTB wanted to create Velocity, but turned out to be their Plan B which was transfer US Taxpayer Money to our Selected Corporate Winners.

-

- Money multiplier
- Fiscal multipliers
- Keynesian and Hansen-Samuelson multipliers (But I have NO Idea what this is)

Velocity in the USA is shit no matter how you look at it (Stall Speed).

The Heart & Soul of the US Economy is Small Businesses. But we had a Deaths Cross in 2014 in Small Business Closings Exceeding Small Business Openings (See ZH). Even Banks show a steady, strong Decline in Numbers for the last 40 years.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1V
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DDAI02USA643NWDB (number of Commercial Bank Branches is Steady since 2008)
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USNUM (Commercial Banks, Dramatic Decline)

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU02048984 (Employment Level - Total wage and salary, incorporated self employed)

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNS12032192 (Employment Level - Nonagriculture, Self-employed Workers, Unincorporated, Down a Million People at least)

Tek Kinkreet's picture

Bank profits are exactly equal to their government subsidy handout, the biggest welfare queens in creation.

laomei's picture

US GDP:

Current: 16.3T (chained) or 17.71T (unchained)  

2009: 14.54T

Growth = 1.76T~3.17T    

 

US Debt:

Current:$18.43T  

2009: 10.6T  

Growth: 7.83T

JoWazzoo's picture

Yeah.  And it is fun to divide the Debt increase since 2008 by the number od jobs created since 2008.  Particularly FULL time jobs - not the BS part time jobs that sell side doods get their rocks off on.

Butterflying's picture
Butterflying (not verified) 1000yrdstare May 13, 2015 10:06 AM

My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... www.jobs-review.com

Caleb Abell's picture

It's not just the money.  All that semen on her face is good for her complexion.