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The US Is In Recession According To These 7 Charts
The evidence continues to mount...
"Most since Lehman" has become the new meme for macro-economic data in the US as day after day brings another lacklustre superlative to be dismissed with some excuse by the cognoscenti of sell-side economists...
Of course, that is aside from anything related to aggregate jobs that is spewed by the government's official ministries of truth... (do not look at this chart)
* * *
So here are seven charts that scream "recession" is here...
Retail Sales are weak - extremely weak. Retail Sales have not dropped this much YoY outside of a recession...
And if Retail Sales are weak, then Wholesalers are seeing sales plunge at a pace not seen outside of recession...
Which means Factory Orders are collapsing at a pace only seen in recession...
And Durable Goods New Orders are negative YoY once again - strongly indicative of a recessionary environment...
Which is not going to improve anytime soon since inventories have not been this high relative to sales outside of a recession
In fact, the last time durable goods orders fell this much, The Fed launched QE3 - indicating clearly why they desperately want to raise rates imminently... in order to have some non-ZIRP/NIRP ammo when the next recession hits.
* * *
And just in case you figured that if domestic prosperity won't goose the economy, Chinese and Japanese stimulus means the rest of the world will save us... nope!! Export growth is now negative... as seen in the last 2 recessions.
And deflationary pressures (Import Prices ex-fuel) are washing upon America's shores at a pace not seen outside of a recession...
* * *
But apart from that, given that US equities are at record highs, everything must be great in the US economy...
Wait a minute.
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Hidden DEpression..
fixed
But it's so AWESOME!!
World faces recession exceeding Great Depression by 2.5x — Russian economist Mikhail Khazin
Damn Russians.
Do these terms have any meaning anymore ? Recession, Depression, Great Recession, Inflation, Deflation. The Federal Reserve has distorted everything and nothing has any meaning anymore.
Well said. Prices are now to be understood like the drawling of a drunk. The distortion in speech is caused precisely by toxic liquidity in the drunk's circulatory system. "Why don't you have another drink?" says the man buying the drinks. And when the drinker passes out completely in the alley, his pockets will be rifled and his body worked over for anything real to snatch.
But but but, when Obamacare finally kicks in, we'll be saved.
Yes, we will abandon the drunk on the steps of the doctor's office so that they can check his hearing, and test for allergies to pollen, and promptly charge his insurance.
No fuckin' shit the US is in recession/depression. The real story is that the Fed is all out of powder and powerless to pull the economy out of it. Print to fucking infinity and beyond Yellen, you asshole idiot lying sociopathic parasitic lackey for the devils minions. It will only prove what you really are.
I didn't see the "number of bums on street corners asking for handouts" index.
It's the Best of Times for Bankers, Wall Street and Insurance Companies and the Worst of Times for the "Everyday Amerikans."
Long Cardboard Box Houses!
Recession? But the party in DC has not stopped nor been interrupted!
obamacare?
obamadon'tcare.
We can cry all we want, these people aren't going to stop the terrorism, wake up people, before it's too late...
http://galeinnes.blogspot.com/2015/05/imagine-tomorrow.html
Drove through Boston today. Most panhandlers since Lehman.
Wrong Index
You're looking for "number of tent cities popping up under local bridges"
Im seeing a new one pop up every week here in Seattle, business is BOOMING!
Wrong Index
You're looking for "number of tent cities popping up under local bridges"
Im seeing a new one pop up every week here in Seattle, business is BOOMING!
Central bankers completed their mission of saving the too big to fail banks and government institutions by buying their bonds. Bankers and government workers have never had it better.
Print money while everyone else is starving, due to liquidity crisis they created, and then buy up everything at fire sale prices....
Just another day of Banker Terrorism...
Dude, cmon "drawling"? You're killin me.
Oh wait you meant actual drawling not drawing spelled wrong by someone who can't speak properly...gotcha.
Ya knw, it may hve jst ben a typing error, not a speling error.
The terms still have the same definition that they always have you just simply need to ignore the people that your are told to trust on the TV or take everything they say and apply the opposite meaning. To quote the infamous Willie Wonka, "Strike that and reverse it".
Let's add property rights, marriage, freedom, constitution, and Republic to that list.
"People have been bullshitted by the system into believing that if you change the name of the condition, somehow you'll change the condition."
- George Carlin
NO BUSH
NO CLINTON
Too much bush and clit.
I like referring to them as Jeb Clinton and Hillary Bush to push the point that they are the same.
This story is a lie! It just has to be because liberals keep reminding me that Obama has been an economic miracle on the US.
Must keep the illusion alive until after the election. Need to keep Obama looking good until then.
Sorry Barry goes under the progressive bus long before then. Trade was just the bumper....
No fucking Obama either . You know that fat assed drag queen Mooch has designes on that shit as well as thier fucked up spoild tweens.
Hey slow down there buddy. Michelle is a gorgeous fashionable first-lady who is in the style of Jackie Kennedy. At least thats what I hear from all the MSM.
no bush/no clinton:
need a neither of the above.
which one is the turd sandwich btw?
great charts, TD
It's not a recession until they put that pink shading on all these charts as in previous recessions. duh!
Raise Rates Now!!!
well, everything else has failed. Could at least normalize and show confidence in all the bullshit.
Or we can laugh out balls off while Chicago goes belly up I guess.
No such thing as "importing deflation." We're importing inventories...which as they build cost money since any item sitting on the shelf not being sold in fact COSTS MONEY.
Bring on the defaults would appear...
The just in time economy dies if we don't buy everything just as soon as it is produced.
Misallocation of resources has been redefined as a 'demand' deficit.
The truth is: the citizenry don't want to go into debt to buy junk they don't neeed from avaricious corporate vendors who practice wage/environmental arbitrages and lobby for subsidizations and bailouts paid by our own income taxes.
The neo-globalist merchantilist consumption model is dying.
I agree.. Let's Volker this shit!!
It's just an 8 year itch.................nothing to worry about!
To most .......................we never got out of the last 2 DEpressions!
In the end we will scratch ourselves away.
When was the US not in recession?
It's been papering over its recession for decades with fake bubbles, S&L, Tech & Housing bubbles and now a giant QE bubble. The last time the US wasn't in recession was 1944, which coincided with a major World War. Something it's been trying to start again for the last 25 years. Gotta love that engine for growth and relentless pursuit of profit.
Indeed.
GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)
If you take the G (Government deficit spending) out of the equation; we never left the 2008 - 2009 'recession'...
Exactly!
The increase in the US national debt since 2009 probably exceeds nominal GDP growth since 2009. It's so blindingly obvious. The Ministry of Propaganda and all the Keynesian economists refuse to even consider it.
They can't consider it if they did and admited they are wrong than all of the models they have been using since 1913 would be exposed as one GIANT mistake, in short thier world would collapse and the whole fiat system with it. They will never admit the Keynesian economic theory is wrong for that very reason.
I want to say TPTB wanted to create Velocity, but turned out to be their Plan B which was transfer US Taxpayer Money to our Selected Corporate Winners.
-
- Money multiplier
- Fiscal multipliers
- Keynesian and Hansen-Samuelson multipliers (But I have NO Idea what this is)
Velocity in the USA is shit no matter how you look at it (Stall Speed).
The Heart & Soul of the US Economy is Small Businesses. But we had a Deaths Cross in 2014 in Small Business Closings Exceeding Small Business Openings (See ZH). Even Banks show a steady, strong Decline in Numbers for the last 40 years.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1V
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DDAI02USA643NWDB (number of Commercial Bank Branches is Steady since 2008)
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USNUM (Commercial Banks, Dramatic Decline)
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU02048984 (Employment Level - Total wage and salary, incorporated self employed)
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNS12032192 (Employment Level - Nonagriculture, Self-employed Workers, Unincorporated, Down a Million People at least)
Bank profits are exactly equal to their government subsidy handout, the biggest welfare queens in creation.
US GDP:
Current: 16.3T (chained) or 17.71T (unchained)
2009: 14.54T
Growth = 1.76T~3.17T
US Debt:
Current:$18.43T
2009: 10.6T
Growth: 7.83T
Yeah. And it is fun to divide the Debt increase since 2008 by the number od jobs created since 2008. Particularly FULL time jobs - not the BS part time jobs that sell side doods get their rocks off on.
My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... www.jobs-review.com
It's not just the money. All that semen on her face is good for her complexion.
It's easy, just have to use enough KY
No worries, maye. The sgepacker and liberal progressive democraps will pretend it's not yhwre & everything is hunkydory. The truth from these turds is what yhey say it is. Facts don't matter any more.
Oh I hate that I just wrote this entire thing and it got deleted with a page reload!!!!!
Kiki despises facts! Always has since she was a child. That's why Hillary fell in love with her bullshit in high school.
Kiki prefers we live in her dollhouse where we are held as slaves of her pretend. I'll be damned if she didn't just use her lying power to take over the United States and the rest of the world so should there be no place to escape from her Armageddon for ur passions.
I caught that image of keeping us in her evil voodoo dollhouse back in jr high and it gave me the chills then.
I just wonder if she will break the entire world to keep anyone from enjoying anything real for what her sick Münchausen syndrome mommy dearest (smotherest) preference of what she has for ya!
Don't worry it's almost summer, green shoots a comin'......
Unfortunately, the green shoots are poison ivy.
How about they lower gas prices if we are in a tailspin.
That would be logical but we are talking about the Tribe and The House of Saud. These fuckers show no mercy.
We do have all electric cars now.
Plus solar city plus the battery.
Plus massive amounts of wind power being generated.
yep, Zero Blows
U totally missed yesterday's gov thing about how since all the gas taxes go to a slush fund and it's empty they need to double those taxes for what they were intended for in the first place....... YEA RIGHT!
Has anyone else noticed multiple aborted price increases in the past 12 months? I see them attempt a 5% retail increase, and then 2 weeks later, they drop back to the original. Margins... Retailers are running out of ways to dance around the reality...
i see, fed see, qe 4...
The Drought Luke.. Blame it on the Drought...
I am amazed that has not happened yet. Just you wait and see.......LOL
So, the US is going to start a war soon.. right?
Start a war? I wasn't aware the USSA have ceased waging wars...
SURGING gas prices should vault us right out of recession and into very prosperous times!!
Of course when added to all the spending peeps will do one of these dayz with all their gas savings since last year. LMFAO every time I hear some clown on CNBS talk about "the consumer" spending all theyr gas savings.
War, QE4, Grexit, gold up, stocks down - all in 2015 I bet.
"most since Lehman"....that was September 2008. Bear Sterns collapsed in January 2008. Subprime seized up February 2007. Fannie and Freddie were nationalized June 2008.
"most since Lehman" needs to be changed to 'since subprime started to crack', or something. Lehman was the pinnacle, not the beginning.
and also, if you alter the way inflation is calculated just a little, one could say we never left the recession-----but truth is perspectival, and when the hammer stops hitting your hand, while not as good as an undamagaged hand, it feels a lot better---thus the widespread use of the word 'recovery' for the past 6 years.
Lehman was not the pinacle, the show isn't over... this is just the intermission, hope you got your popcorn.
Please remember after the Great Depression the word Depression was re maketed into "Recession" in hopes that "Recession" would Propagandize / PsyOp The American People into thinking & changing the mindset.
It is, has been & will always be no doubt a Depression.
most anemic economic recovery in American history is running out of options
20% of American economy is recovering, while the remaining 80% goes to the dogs
be sure to put the blame squarely where it belongs,
Obomber owns this hit
Woof
bad doggies
no biscuit...
Wrong! Don't fall into the trap, Obama can't wipe his ass with out permission. This rest squarely on the shoulders of Congress. For years they have let the presidency slide on bad policy, abuse of power and not holding to their oath of office. Congress's leadership is bought and paid or blackmailed. Obama, just like Bush Jr., Just like Clinton.....are fall guys. Congress holds the purse, congress can prosecute, congress can investigate, congress can hold a trial. Congress is to Blame and the American people for not holding them accountable and playing the Red Team Vs Blue team game.
they are all murderers, rapists, pedophiles, of some combination of those 3. Presidents, congress, all the alphabet soup agency heads, all of them. Truly the most vile people in the country. The american government has devolved into a Kakistocracy for a long time now and to expect the evil cock suckers to suddenly turn into moral human beings is delusional. To expect the evil cock suckers to suddenly decide they will allow moral decent human beings into positions of power is also delusional.
If you consume today what you would have consumed tomorrow, then tomorrow will suffer the consequences.
We have so over stimulted consumption for decades....there is a payback on the way.
QE held it off momentarily, but even that cannot stop basic economic realities.
It's all good till you get caught sleeping on the job (SOTJ).
You forgot one... which typically lags the beginning of a recession.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1bfs
Holy shit batman!
Never knew that - thanks
that graph should be in Gallons
Gallons on the Y-axis would be helpful, but even if you're looking at just the revenue in dollars it's bad. The station owners still have to pay labor and lights and heat and the cost of the Twinkies and Red Bull.
I'm not even 55% on that. Gas stations make money on the Margin, the Mark-Up on the Price they bought the Gas at.
They are royally screwed as you point out if the price continiues to fall... since they are buying at higher prices, but have to keep lowering prices to compete.
What I think we saw in the last 5 months was a bottom, then Retailers realizing they could not sell at that price since they already lost money. But I don't know the business at all.
Everyone at Retail, Wholesale, Refinery, Midstream, and Upstream are looking at new paradigm for their Budgets.
Aren't retail gas sales shown in $$ lower due to lower oil prices?
Number of gallons sold would be a better indicator of reduced demand.
Papaswamp - That link taught me something new. Well done! If your a micro business (formerly small business) like me, you make hay while the sun shines and bank it, in-between charting up and down every other year that looks like an endless 'w'.
Very slow for my business this year but broke even each month thus far and this month profitable. The momentum of previous efforts last year kept me afloat. As summer is slow anyways for my biz I'll take July off and have some fun goofing off.
Most of us here know its a pig through a python pain over a couple of decades based on demographics and a wave of corruption. I hedge with physical assets and aome basic supplies best I can.
Steve LIESman: "This just doesn't make any sense, the fundamentals are strong"
The fundamentals were all indications in a free market. Now, the fundamentals are restated to make them look strong along with the market not being free. Its like changing your speedometer dial to read 10x what it really is. The dial may indicate you are doing 600mph, but that is a false indication, you are still only doing 60mph.
Good luck with Liesman understanding this concept. Who is John Galt?
no arguement
last summer my call US enters a recession no later than Q1 2015
sticking with it
You mean 3 Qtrs of FED Official Negative GDP?
2 quarters, not 3
Thanks, I remember being pissed at the NBER before on this.
http://www.bea.gov/faq/index.cfm?faq_id=485
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation. The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization that focuses on understanding the U.S. economy. The NBER recession is a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators—such as employment, personal income, and industrial production—as well as quarterly GDP growth. Therefore, while negative GDP growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth does not always hold. For information on recession, or business-cycle, dating, see: http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html. - See more at: http://www.bea.gov/faq/index.cfm?faq_id=485#sthash.nqMAFfFz.dpuf
I think Tyler has manipulated these charts . . to the UP side.
Time for RECOVERY SUMMER part VII !!!!11!! (which is Newspeak for "more looting")
The Agitator-in-Chief lies every time he opens his mouth. Like LIESman, like Bernanke, like dam near every other government shill out there........ Let the QE looting continue until it doesn't.
What a shame for America.
“Once we squeeze all we can out of the United States, it can dry up and blow away” -Tribe member in Chief, Bibi.
and anyone who disagrees is an anti-semite and subject to imprisonment after we pass those laws.
Recession? Depression?
Have no fear - TPP* is (almost) here!
(TPP* - Transnational Plutocratic Plunder)
They'll probably Count Intellectual Property Royalties as GDP Growth.
http://www.businessinsider.com/hsbcs-stephen-king-on-the-world-economy-2...
"There will be growth in the spring"
Chauncey Gardener
I think the best accurate chart will be the number of lies from the government.
TV has been telling me its been a boom economy for like 6 years now, what with the super low unemployment, zero inflation, healthy stock market, and low rates, so a recession is needed to avoid hyperinflation or a hard landing or people feeling so good about the economy they all quit to become artists.
No one could have seen it coming. - Obama 2016.
"Most since Lehman" has become the new meme for macro-economic data in the US as day after day brings another lacklustre superlative to be dismissed with some excuse by the cognoscenti of sell-side economists..."
Save your breath; the SOB's on Wall Street and the Fed are either clueless or bald faced liars.
The MAIN thing is to remember who these people are/were when it finally caves.
If we're going to get to better places afterward, they have to be dealt with and removed from the system.
Next time, no more lies and deceit...
m
Let's just skip QE4, QE5 and QE6....let's try QE to infinity...
I don't have time to worry about this, not with the Russian invasion about to happen.
hahahahahahaaahaha yesss
but but Everything Is AWESOME when we're living our dream
USA has been in recession for 7 years.
OK. But what difference does it make?
Retail sales ex autos & ex gas is up +3.4% yoy bozos
proof?
Looks like down 3%, but includes gas.
Retail Trade and Food Services, excluding Auto
Millions of Dollars, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 1992-01 to 2015-04
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RSFSXMVN
He might have seasonally adjusted data.
You mean car loans, not cars.
I'll tell you what. The fucking golf courses have been raising their prices. And their costs have to be going down. I might have to change addictions.
if one subtracted growth in debt (relative to gdp) from growth in gdp, it wouldn't take a genius to realize we've been in negative growth territory, err a depression, for many years
course so long as one pretends credit cards aren't part of the equation all is swell...until no one takes the credit cards
Welfare is probably in GDP too although I haven't look at GDP for a year or so.
Consider unneeded Medical Activity, MEDICARE, MEDICAID... then Add on Over Priced Medical Activity as unneeded.
Are EBT Cards, SNAP, WIC, TANF included in GDP... Probably as Jobs performed by Government Employees if nothing else, Called Social Work.
So you have Financial Middle Men adding now Value as Rentiers possibly counted as GDP when they sell an Asset as well.
- If Wages are Collapsing and we know they are since the High Wage Manufacturing and Silicon Valley Jobs have gone overseas... then we know we have been in a long term recession of sorts since 1980, 1990, or 2000 depending on how you Define it. Just look at Velocity Links I posted Below.
All those things you ask about ARE in GDP. They are part of G - government spending.
GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)
C is 70 % of GDP and includes Retail Sales
G includes all government spending including all the wefare payments, food stamps (part od Dept of Agriculture Budget), Obama phones, GM bailouts, spending on TESLA etc.
X - M is net exports which are hurting us since X - exports have declined due to $ strength and M - imports are increasing due to the $.
For those interested in China their Imports AND Exports have been falling and they will likely hit Recession when we do.
cheers
( . ) ( . )
Stop it with your yo yo yo charts.
Here's one of the problems in a nutshell:
EVERYONE FUCKING KNOWS already that a thing is true.
The politicians won't admit it until they are forced to do so
The only way to force them to do so is to subject the data to analysis and hold it up against technical definitions
The technical definitions are decided upon by the politicians and the analytical methods are known so they can be (and are gamed).
Everyone fucking knows the sky is black at night, but fuck if the politicians are not out holding a custom-ordered legal definition of "black" and a spectrum chart out in a field of their choosing claiming it's not quite black so it's not night yet. Fuck them all.
QE4 is just around the corner. S&P escalating past 2500 by this time next year. Dollar index back to mid 0.70's.
It'll happen.
Doom and gloomers just got no place in this new world order. Free money forevah!
Bloomberg just did an Article how 7 TBTJ Banks are projected to buy $1.4 Trillion in Treasuries over the next year. However, Foreigners have been buying up US LT Treasuries as a Safe Harbor and since EU has gone to NIRP.
So the Demand for US Treasuries is so high they don't have to pay a high interest rate and seems no reason to raise Interest Rates from ZIRP/LIRP. Could be grounds for NIRP.
Monday on Bloomberg. JPM plans to buy $900 Billion in Treasuries over the next year by itself an ENDRUN around FED Talk to Raise Interest Rates!!
Rest of the world; Treasury securities; asset, Level
2014: 6,169,224 Millions of Dollars (Exponential Increase)
Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted, ROWTSEA027N, Updated: 2015-03-12
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ROWTSEA027N
SO... Why not QE4 too??
Whenever an event within perpetuity is assumed to be at the behest of a transitory entity; blame is most often misplaced.
The POTUS has no control over Wall Street. Wall Street is a continuum in perpetuity and the office of POTUS is finite.
Staff, lobbyists, clerks, pages, government employees, gatekeepers, ancillary personnel are the “managers of the country”, and they operate in perpetuity within a continuum.
The system is rotten.
The POTUS is the “apple” which gets the blame or reward for conditions and actions of the entire bushel.
Who gets the credit or blame for a 100 year plan?
The originator?
The generations of dedicated staffers?
The guy in charge on the day success or failure is announced?
The POTUS is a symbol, not a force of nature nor most often a member of the true shapers of continuums in perpetuity.
If the system is not changed by electing an entirely new Congress which brings in entirely new support personnel, the system will always trump the office. A president has a four year plan.
Organizations have generational goals, the plans of which are to achieve change in their favor.
It is a stacked deck.
Ponzi Scheme Immigration! Please line up to the left to get your visa to California, Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico. White people will please note that the assigning of a non-white to them, who can properly excoriate them daily for their: racism, and balking at giving up the US to foreign occupiers (San Francisco, Ca; Bellevue, WA; Sugar Land, Texas currently either majority asian or Broaching majority asian along with selected areas of Massachusetts. And don't forget the Chinese developer in LA who recently bragged in the La Times about the Chinese city-within-a-city he was building.).
Meanwhile, after the Guggenheim Museum, unhappy with the spitting and penny throwing and dissheveled behavior of students from a black middle school in NY, banned them from coming back, Michelle Oboma noted that the Racism of this dang US of A means these feral "children" (Ninth Graders) need access to these elite museums regardless of their behavior and damage caused.
Note to Michelle: After age ten, you are no longer a Child, you are a young person and expected to know civilized behavior.
Note: Michelle is no longer a child forced into hard labor in America, but she exhibits all of the characteristics of a spoiled brat. Unfortunately, she and her husband are leaders of a superpower and the promoters of an open-border, welfare society that is non-white, rivaling anything ever seen before on the planet.
The tsunami of third world immigration gives Michelle immunity to charge all America with racism, as she did in her Tuskegee graduation speech. Americans being made familiar with the speech were shocked that its primary theme was not the graduates or the hopeful future that they entertain but it was the persecution of Michelle. She made herself the object of the speech, how she had been faced with slights and innuendos (in spite of her obscene salary from the system and her middle class childhood), linking those slights to the “suffering” (and she used that word) that graduates will face in racist America.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/05/09/remarks-first-lady-tuskegee-university-commencement-address
Michelle and Obama would not be in power if it were not for the 1965 Immigration Act which was supported and initiated by Jewish groups in the United States. These Jewish interests have made it clear that they support multiculturalism and Third World immigration (as opposed to former European immigration policies) so they would have less interference and competition from a white Christian society.
Recession is a frame of mind brought on by the cartoon in the opening page. "Growth" celebrated by Keynesians is killing the planet. Rejoice and just bring back the manufacturing jobs.
Do not tell mainstream media that recession is here. Especially Washington DC's most proflic propaganda operation, I speak of National Public Radio. Their economic reporting is just short of Soviet Union is style. They pile on lies without the least quams. Each report is a bigger lie than the last, without any shame they tell lies. Disgusting. Housing is booming, we are at full employment, college grads have a booming job market. As long as stocks rise, NPR's whore reporters are singing sweet songs about how great and recovered our economy is. They once were an alternative to main stream media reporting, for 2 decades now they have begun to out do mainstream media liars. Congress took control of NPR and ordered them to start telling lies to fit in with their re-election campaigns, and so they do!
NPR is where the so-called mature, smart and compassionate liberals go for their news. "I heard on NPR today..." thus begins the bullshit screed - people get so mad when you point out that NPR is an in-house gov't. propaganda network.
In addition to economic bullshit, they also can hear how Saudi Arabia is doing the right thing in killing people in Yemen and how the Ukraine has had their nascent democracy crushed by the evil Putin.
I used to consider NPR to be a balanced news source and was quite willing to support my local station financially. But, in the last few years, all the news is about how downtrodden the faggots are because the baker won't bake a cake for their wedding.
I've discovered that silence can be golden.
Oh no, not the dreaded R word. pretty soon they will outlaw use of word Recession, just like they did depression, so what's next? the economy is going through a period of general malaise?
So naturally an new event will happen this summer....
Seems like they have managed to engineer a very soft landing. Congratulations are in order. Yellen banzai! Fed Banzai! Now we just need closure on the Greek fiasco and we can all move on.
You can show any number of charts, but recession has a particular meaning. 3 quarters of negative GDP growth. Well, by the govt. stats, which are admitedly not reliable, we have not had even one quarter yet, so no, we are not in a recession yet. Maybe the charts show that a recession is immanent, but it's not here yet.
2 not 3 quarters
Two quarters of negative GDP. Determined by NBER in Cambridge MA. Q 1 will definitely be Negative with revisios and Q 2 isn't looking too hot at just .7 according to Atlanta Fed.
Someone ain't tellin' the truth here. Let me guess who.
Who the fuck cares anymore... if stocks continue to go up (which they will).
As long as the USA has little real manufacturing and only service jobs like burger flippers. it will continue its demise.
Unexpected tissue types found in some hamburgers included bone, cartilage, and plant material; no brain tissue was present. Sarcocystis parasites were discovered in 2 hamburgers.
But you might be safe in Europe.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18995204
Ann Diagn Pathol. 2008 Dec;12(6):406-9. doi: 10.1016/j.anndiagpath.2008.06.002. Epub 2008 Jul 26.
Fast food hamburgers: what are we really eating?
Prayson B1, McMahon JT, Prayson RA
Since we never left the prior "recession," I'd call this a retardation of the current recession, a "retarded recession."
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission.
Anyone who needs charts to verify we're in recession/depression is beyond hope...
Oh, totally different topic, but I just redid my browser and forgot to reload my noscript, and saw the Zero Hedge front page WITH all the other stuff...Oh...my...God...HOW do those of you without adblockers manage to READ this site?
Holy crap...I think I'm traumatized.
THE PERFECT STORM (see p. 59 onwards)
The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf
This article analyses the credit bubble that is bursting as we speak. It's only a matter of time before the accelerating economic vortex swallows up everything.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...
Atlantic City NJ Hospitality and Leisure Employment Level Graph:
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All Employees: Leisure and Hospitality in Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ (MSA), 2015-03: 37.7 Thousands of Persons (22,000 people Gone), Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, ATLA134LEIHN, Updated: 2015-04-21
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ATLA134LEIHN
Someone posted Sales Dollars Gasoline, here is Consumption:
Feel $115 Billion Dollars since 2008 and was fully Recovered in 2014 till this collapse:
Personal consumption expenditures: Nondurable goods: Gasoline and other energy goods, 015:Q1: 291.7 Billions of Dollars (+ see more), Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, DGOERC1Q027SBEA, Updated: 2015-04-29
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DGOERC1Q027SBEA
Same in this Graph:
Retail Trade: Gasoline Stations
2015-04: 36,021 Millions of Dollars (down $10 Billion)
Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, RSGASS, Updated: 2015-05-13
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RSGASS
Here Employment picked up maybe due to system changes or complexity or adding food concessions:
All Employees: Retail Trade: Gasoline Stations
2015-04: 900.9 Thousands of Persons, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, CES4244700001, Updated: 2015-05-08
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES4244700001
Here a Telltale Tick Down:
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores
2015-04: 8,541 Millions of Dollars (down $500 Million)
Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, RSEAS, Updated: 2015-05-13
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RSEAS
Pre Lehman the headlines read: "Not since the 1930's."
So: "Not since Lehman's" would be considered an improvement by historians because...
SQUIRREL...
So today we got yet another shitty Retail number. This now makes 5 months including the important Christmas season. Now Retail falls into the C compont of GDP. In fact - C is 70 % of GDP. Of course Equity futures rocketed on the number as did stocks when they opened. I prefer the old days when bad news was BAD and todays Retail number would have been worth 300 + DOWN Dow points.
Later in the day we had:
Euro stocks trashing out
Crude higher
Bond yields soaring after the retail number run up wore off
And the sucky Retail sales
And stawks? Waffling sideways mostly yet again with SPY mostly in a 20 - 40 cent channel much of the day.
FWIW, I am an economist and have been calling for a recession yo early next year since February.
Atlanta Fed is down to .7 fow Q 2 GDP and with Revisions Q 1 will go negative.
And of course S & P futures are at 2096.25. Heh.
Boy howdy, best news I've read in weeks.
I say bring it on, let's hope it's a real barnburner!
Stock market is clearly pricing in QE4. Those drug dealers, er, bankers cannot help themselves.