US Retail Sales Hint At Recession, Weakest Since Financial Crisis

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite bouncing back last month at the fastest pace in a year, April just printed the slowest YoY growth since Nov09 at just 0.9% (retail sales has still missed expectations for 4 of the last 5 months). Against expectations of a 0.2% MoM rise in April (considerably slower than the 0.9% pop in March), Retail Sales missed with a 0.0% change. Ex-Auto and Gas MoM also missed with a mere 0.1% gain (aghainst +0.5% exp.) but it was the control group that saw the biggest miss, printing 0.0% (against hopeful expectations of a 0.5% gain). There was widespresd weakness with outright declines in autos, furniture, gas, food, electronics (AAPL hangover), and general merchandise.

What is curious is that moments ahead of the release, sellsiders were overslling the retail print to appear far more important than it is, in hopes for a big beat. CRT strategist David Ader says in note that "Retail Sales is, oddly, perhaps more important than NFP..."

And now we get the talking down.

MoM saw a modest reveision in march save it from 5 monthly misses in a row:

 

Year-over-Year retail sales growth slowest since July 2008's slump:

 

Worse, non-seasonally adjusted retail sales which however are perfectly relevant on a Y/Y basis as the same seasonal adjustment takes place every 12 months, posted their first decline since the Great Recession.

 

And the Control Group shows no signsof improvment post-weather or post-gas savings...

 

The Breakdown is particularly ugly...

 

Oh well: it rained in the spring, unexpectedly, preventing Americans from spending trillions in cash they don't have on stuff they don't need. Oh, and don't forget Easter came around this year. 

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VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Not to worry, stocks are up.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Last time saw $28,000 to $38,000 MSRP cars/trucks lease for $0 down and anywhere from $199 to $239 a month, we were in a recession that merely had yet to be acknowledged.

I'm seeing this again now.

By the way, mortgage refi applications are lowest now since 2000!

MonetaryApostate's picture

Retail is the heart and soul of a consumer/credit based economy, this should worry you, seriously.

 

Stocks won't mean diddly when corporations start tanking hard, expect more right-sizings, downsizings, and bankruptcies..

TruthInSunshine's picture

Publicly traded corporations now have a record amount, on a net basis, of debt in history.

Keep those corporate bond issuances & those share buybacks coming!

clooney_art's picture

 

Meantime:

HSBC WARNS: The world economy faces a 'titanic problem' Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/hsbcs-stephen-king-on-the-world-economy-2015-5#ixzz3a1UGOBt1

 

13 Reasons Why Your 401(k) Is Your Riskiest Investment

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/05/12/13-reasons-why-your-401k-is-your-ri...

 

The cake:

--------

10. The government owns your 401(k) and can change the rules at will.

You may be surprised to learn this, but your 401(k) does not even technically belong to you. Read the fine print and you will find "FBO" (For Benefit Of). The tax code makes it technically owned by the government, but provided for your benefit.

Judging from world history, 401(k)s could be in great jeopardy. Other countries have raided private retirement plans to fund the government. Argentina did it in 2008, Hungary did it in 2010 and Ireland in 2011. Similar pension raids occurred in Poland and France.

Could it happen in America? Well, during the last recession, Congress invited an expert to give testimony on confiscating 401(k)s and turning them into a public retirement plan like Social Security. It only takes one economic crisis before you retire for possible rule changes or confiscation of your 401(k).

---------

 

kchrisc's picture

Like putting your retirement savings in the hands of Captain Kidd.

401(Kidd).

Liberty is  a demand . Tyranny is submission.

 

People just never learn.

max2205's picture

BLS must have a bunch of retards coming up with these numbers 

They can't even make up good numbers anymore 

NoVa's picture

Since Lehman TM 

 

NoVa

 

Butterflying's picture
Butterflying (not verified) VinceFostersGhost May 13, 2015 11:11 AM

My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... www.jobs-review.com

Down to Earth Thinking's picture

and we have been in a recovery mode for at least 5 years ! says dear leader and crew, not the one from N Korea 

praps's picture

Bit of a lame headline.  Expected at least a 'plunging' or 'carnage'.

Calculus99's picture

Apparently it was too cloudy, or even not enough cloud.

Even I'm getting onfused by the weather and its massive effect on the numbers these days. 

Where's the douche bag economist Joe LaVorgna, he's the one that understands the weather. 

Last of the Middle Class's picture

umm patient's vitals are going to shit. . . but other than that recovery is doing great!!!

Wait What's picture

that Obamacare tax is working out great! budget surplus hasn't been bigger in years! consumers don't need that money anyway! /s

More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

no credit...no money...no problem

TheFourthStoog-ing's picture
TheFourthStoog-ing (not verified) May 13, 2015 8:51 AM

The U.S. economy has had a rough couple of months, but is fundamentally sound. The bigger problem is those un-American folks who want to see us fail.

Usurious's picture

we here at ZH want to see the Rothschilds bank-note scheme FAIL..........we want constitutional money...........

your comment suggests that you suck BANKSTER cock.......

Fukushima Fricassee's picture
Fukushima Fricassee (not verified) Usurious May 13, 2015 9:44 AM

Bravo for calling out another sheeple cocksucker just like the cocksucking Obama hope and changer.

max2205's picture

Maybe if they put a black human trafficker on the $20 bill people would spend faster just to get that bitch out of their wallet 

Down to Earth Thinking's picture

was it snark or real ?  if not snark then most likely black bankster cock as well.

Wait What's picture

if by 'sound' you mean terminally cancerous, you are right.

it's all the fault of those gosh-darn unpatriotic disbelievers!

Space Animatoltipap's picture

It's fundamentally very sound. The only thing is it's based on a pyramid ponzi scheme, aka a deadly sucking swamp, once turning downward. Perhaps the sucking downward has already started and only the nitwits who like to have their smelly tool s***** simply don't realise it. Hare Krishna.

ersatz007's picture

The bigger problem is the un-American Americans that won't buy shit for the sake of their country and multinational corporations. Assholes. Oh and the poor people. They're to blame too.

Stormtrooper's picture

Those poor people should have chosen rich parents so they would'nt be in their predicament (Yellen).

Son of Loki's picture

" The poor people are just not ambitious enough. "

 

~ Jack ma

LooseLee's picture

Pinko Fascist Commies are the Un-Americans. Failure is their 'essence'. They are the leaders of 'America' whom you seem to identify with. So sad as your ignorance will be your hell...

youngman's picture

It snowed in Denver last week..that was it......why buy anything when the Uber app is worth 50 billion dollars....

Crazy Canuck's picture

They need to get the dead to start 'buying' stuff - think of the boost to GDP if every corpse bought an iPhone! 

Hey - it works in 'elections' when they stuff the boxes with dead voters

TruthInSunshine's picture

Yellen needs to monetize unsecured credit card debt of hospice patients.

onewayticket2's picture

how about Chicago's obligations......?

new game's picture

trickle down drying up?

madbraz's picture

and the yield curve steepens on the news!  they've made a mockery of the treasury bond market with futures market low volume manipulation.  thanks bankers and FED.

lester1's picture

We live in economic fantasy land. This bubble market is starting to pop. Then what will the Fed do? Rates are already at 0%.

FreeShitter's picture

Crash the ponzi and take your ira/401k to payoff thier buddies.

SERReal1's picture

They will takes rates negative. It is doing wonders for Europe.....

Fukushima Fricassee's picture
Fukushima Fricassee (not verified) May 13, 2015 9:10 AM

Since Leman

Mike Honcho's picture

Which year of that race are you referring to?

Mike Honcho's picture

Cashier yesterday had the iStupid watch on, I smiled and said thanks, just wondering how many paychecks it will take to pay that worthless purchase off.

onewayticket2's picture

you mean, "how many of YOUR paychecks...."

 

there.  fixed it for you (and her).

SERReal1's picture

How true. The cashier probably gets EBT, Welfare, and Section 8 to subsidize her PT, Summer of Recovery VII, Minimum Wage (or just above) job thanks to Dear Leader, the Fuhrer Obama.

corporatewhore's picture

please don't let the Tea Partiers escape your wrath---hypocrites.

After all they took full advantage of the tax code to make sure they got theirs.  Now they want to make sure no one else does.

Scooby Doo's picture

After we paid the healthcare premium, the copays & deductible, we spent the last free $ on a meal out & some candy for Easter.  That was it.  This month, we've no plans for boosting retail sales.  Not in the budget.  

ejmoosa's picture

I love it how the Zero mark is the only line that can indicate to anyone that things are in dire shape.