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Why Not Tell Greece How To Run A Democracy?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

I know I’ve talked about this before, but it just keeps coming and it keeps being crzay. Bloomberg ‘reports’ that the ‘German Finance Ministry’, let me get this right, “is supporting the idea of a vote by Greek citizens to either accept the economic reforms being sought by creditors to receive a payout from the country’s bailout program or ultimately opt to leave the euro.” And that’s it.

They ‘report’ this as if it has some sort of actual value, as if it’s a real thing. Whereas in reality, it has the exact same value as Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis suggesting a referendum in Germany. Or Washington, for that matter. Something that Bloomberg wouldn’t even dream of ‘reporting’ in any kind of serious way, though the political value would be identical.

Apparently there is some kind of consensus in the international press – Bloomberg was by no means the only ‘news service’ that ‘reported’ this – that Germany has obtained the right to meddle in the internal politics of other eurozone member nations. And let’s get this one thing very clear: it has not.

No more than the Greek government has somehow acquired the right to even vent its opinions on German domestic issues. It is a no-go area for all European Union countries. More than that, it’s no-go for all nations in the world, and certainly in cases where governments have been democratically elected.

So why do Bloomberg and Reuters and all the others disregard such simple principles? All I can think is they entirely lost track of reality, and they live in a world where reality is what they say it is.

Now, I know that Schäuble ‘merely’ said – I quote Bloomberg -: “If the Greek government thinks it should hold a referendum, it should hold a referendum.. Maybe it would even be the right measure to let the Greek people decide whether they’re ready to accept what needs to be done.”

That’s admittedly not the same thing that Bloomberg makes of it, though it’s possible that the ‘reporter’ got some additional background information from the German Finance Ministry, and that that’s the reason the ministry gets mentioned, instead of just Schäuble.

But that still doesn’t make it alright by any stretch of the imagination. The EU, and the eurozone, are made up of sovereign nations. Who function in a system of equal partners, certainly from a political point of view. So the German FinMin has no business even talking about a Greek referendum, no more than the Greeks have talking about a German referendums. And Angela Merkel should be on his case for this. But she’s not. At least not in public.

Whether or not Greece has a referendum -about the euro or anything else- is up to the Greek people, and first of all to the government they elected only 3.5 months ago. It has absolutely nothing to do with whoever is in charge in Berlin, or Paris, or even in the EU headquarters in Brussels. It’s a fatal mistake to think otherwise. Bloomberg has made that fatal mistake. Schäuble has come so close Athens should file a complaint against him.

Granted, all parties involved may be influenced by what happened 4 years ago -more Bloomberg-:

Schaeuble’s stance on a Greek plebiscite is a departure from Germany’s position in 2011. Back then, Prime Minister George Papandreou dropped his plan for a referendum after Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy urged him not to hold the vote.

That referendum involved a haircut on Greek debt ‘negotiated’ by the troika, which Papandreou wanted the Greek people to vote on. And Merkel and Sarkozy did much more than ‘urge’ Papandreou not to hold the vote. They were afraid it would drive Greece from the eurozone, and scared the sh*t out of him so much he withdrew the plan a few days after proposing it.

Which is just another case of Euro nations meddling in the internal affairs of a fellow member nation. Something for which there wasn’t then, and still isn’t now, any political or legal support or framework inside the EU. Still, Brussels, Berlin and Paris applied similar pressure on Italy PM Berlusconi in those days, and installed – helped install – a technocrat PM, Mario Monti. In Greece, they got Papademos. Both Papandreou and Berlusconi were gone soon after the ‘pressure’ was applied.

That’s how Europe operates. And they have no legal right to do it. But that you won’t read at Bloomberg. The whole thing is so accepted that not even Syriza tells the Germans – or Bloomberg for that matter – to shut their traps. Even though they would have a lot more right to do that than Schäuble has to comment on internal Greek affairs.

And from where I’m sitting that means that Ashoka Mody’s piece for Bruegel is too little too late. Nice try but..

Europe’s Integration Overdrive

The problems will worsen in Greece and, will inevitably, arise elsewhere. The economic and political costs of breaking the Eurozone are so horrendous that the imperfect monetary union will be held together. Instead, the cost of the ill-judged rush to the euro and mismanagement of Greece will eventually be a substantial forgiveness of Greek debt.

 

But this is a good moment to step back and loosen European ties. As Schuman said, “Europe will not be built according to one plan.” The task is to create a de facto solidarity—not to force a fragile embrace. A new architecture should scale back the corrosive power relationships of centralized economic surveillance. Let nations manage their affairs according to their priorities.

 

And put on notice private creditors that they will bear losses for reckless lending. The European fabric -held together by commercial ties- is fraying as European businesses seek faster growing markets elsewhere. That fabric could tear if political discord and economic woes persist. History and Schuman will be watching.

Things have moved way beyond where Mody thinks they are at present. The secret ingredient is simply the crisis. The way the eurozone was hastily slapped together allows only for good times. The idea was that as long as things go well, nobody would notice the cracks. But Europe has been nothing but cracks for 7 years now, and there’s no end in sight.

The Greek people can vote all they want to end the misery Europe has inflicted on them, it doesn’t matter to the major powers in the union. They simply blame it all on the same Greeks, and judging from how Bloomberg approaches the issue, they have the upper hand. They live above their means, they’re wasteful and they’re lazy. That’s the portrait painted, and that’s how 90% of the world therefore sees them.

It makes no difference whether it is true or not. It’s all just about who has more money and power and press; they get to decide what people think about other people.

Does the euro have a future? If it does, it won’t look anything like it does today. The eurozone has only ever been a mechanism to make more money flow from the south to the north. And now the north will have to come up with a measure of solidarity, of being an actual union, and they bluntly refuse.

Rich European countries are all led by politicians who want to win their next elections. And these are national elections, not European elections. Those hardly matter. Because Europe is made up of sovereign nations. And that’s why the European Union in its present shape is doomed to fail.

Brussels will always clamor for a closer union, politically, fiscally, economically. But the way Germany et al has treated Greece and Italy and Spain over the past 7 years makes abundantly clear that such a close union will never come to fruition. These are all countries that are proudly independent, that commemorate battles from hundreds of years ago where their ancestors shed the blood and gave the lives that made them independent.

They’re not going to let Germany and France and Holland call the shots in their economies and countries now. Not a chance.

Europe only has a -peaceful- future as a continent of independent nations that work together where they can. To get there, they will need to abolish the euro and completely redo the union project, from scratch, close down all offices in Brussels, and they will have to do it soon, or there will be no peace.

Meanwhile, what’s left for Greece in Brussels that is beneficial to the country? I don’t see it. It makes me think more of a Stockholm syndrome by the hour. Get out, get your own currency, negotiate a treaty with Italy and Spain, maybe France. But don’t stay in a ‘union’ with outsiders who think they can tell you, Greeks, how to run a democracy, or when to hold a referendum. That can only be a road to nowhere.

 

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Fri, 05/15/2015 - 03:17 | 6096185 Karl Napp
Karl Napp's picture

"Rich European countries are all led by politicians who want to win their next elections."

 

Aha, poor countries not?

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:12 | 6096287 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I used to like Raul, however his constant & habitual demonization of Germany in this process makes me think he is intellectually lazy.  

I never read the articles when I see he has written them.  

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:08 | 6096405 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

H-T
The fact is you learn besser when you digest a contrarian point of view. If you're correct in your own thinking it should reinforce your own arguments.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:44 | 6096458 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I read contrarian points of view.  Shoot, I even watch the BBC.  Given that I should get a nomination for Saint-Hood.  I watched this one stupid talk show here in Germany where some shithead leftwing (die Grüne) politician say German should pay for all of Greece'S debts so Germany becomes the most population nation in Europe again.  Literally, the EU has become a high school popularity contest in the eyes of the Left-wing here. 

INSANITY!

What I don't need to read is some idiot on ZH rambling on for pages at time, who once had a great blog which is in the slow process of self-destructing, as to why Germany is at the heart of all of Europe's problems.  

The heart of Europe's (in the geographic sense of the word) problems is Europe (in the political sense of the word).  Yes Germany runs the show in Europe (political sense again) -- but the Germans aren't the problem -- Europe (in the political sense once again) is the problem for building a system that not only allows this but encourages it.  

Any political construct whose continued existance is contingent upon nations killing their own economies to maintain the whole is a defective construct.  It breeds nothing but poverty and distrust. 

The EU is defective not Germany.  And Raul, I know you read the comments on ZH.  Pull your head out of your ass and start blaming Brussels and Frankfurt and not Berlin.  

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 08:24 | 6096564 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Can't disagree with your sentiment.
I have a dozen friends ( 10 business acquaintances and 2 girlfriends ) in and around Essen. These last couple of years the majority of them are struggling due to falling exports but the girlfriends have never had it so good (ha ha ).

Brussels and Frankfurt are sucking the life blood out of Germany which is not helping itself by allowing Vichy DC to dictate relations with Moscow.

Merkel is a product of Berlin and it would make far more sense to come down like a ton of bricks on puppet states ( dependents like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia etc . . . ) and give 2 fingers to Vichy DC. . . . but this wont happen as Merkel is handcuffed.

Can't have your cake and eat it.

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are dragging Germany down 10 fold compared to Greece.

P.S. A few of my friends pray for the Great Reset

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 03:41 | 6096186 rpc
rpc's picture

The Euro is a bad construction, favorizing moral-hazard. The ones producing the most credit (fiat-money €) win by plundering those who do less, by buying real value with self created fiat (no intrinsic value). As long as the Greeks have their hand in the German wallet through the common currency (Target2, ELA ...), Schäuble has the right, even an obligation to force Greeks into reality: they cannot "have the cake and eat it too".

Greece (and all the PIIGSF) is free to leave the € and to stand on it's on feet. And then, Schäuble will stand down.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:38 | 6096270 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

Why should the Greeks be the only ones forced into reality? If we're going there, let's go all the way there and face the reality that the Euro is inherently unstable due to fundamental cultural differences between its member states.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:48 | 6096322 elvy
elvy's picture

No the euro is unstable because it has no fiscal transfer mechanism by design. If the US had no such transfer mechanism Alabama and Mississipi would have to get on New York's level or internally devalue until there's nothing left.

The design is monumentally idiotic.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:18 | 6096418 rpc
rpc's picture

 A fiscal transfer mechanism means, Germany would have to transfer 10% of its GDP/year forever (see study from Jacques Sapir, EHESS, Paris): this is insane and impossible. We would have a big mezzogiorno in hole of the south, and a paying north, that will not work, its socialism (you know the thing with other people's money ...)

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:47 | 6096467 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

That was tried once -- after WWI.  Didn't work out so well.  

And while the shitleads can bang on ad inifitum about WWII and why Germany should pay, good luck getting the Dutch, Austrians and Finns to cough up the cash in some deformed sense of solidarity.  

The only way for the EU to continue is full federalization.  I fear they (the shitheads in Brussels) will use the next collapse to try exactly this.  

At the end of the day though -- as George Friedman said "The Europeans will return to humanity, have their wars, their peace and live their lives."

I look forward to that day, and the political equivlant of the turtleneck wearing latte sipping avacado Prius driving shitheads here in Europe either shut up, quit voting, or are subject ot abject poverty.  

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 09:10 | 6096719 elvy
elvy's picture

So you want a monetary union but don't want to pay for it. Brilliant!

Was your opinion the same about East Germany? Should they have internally devaluated right up to the point they got as competitive as West Germany was? Would this have ever been possible (eg no revolution happening in the meantime)? Were fiscal transfers from West to East Germany a bad policy?

Your monetary union will crumble if you persist. Your call.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 10:20 | 6097057 rpc
rpc's picture

Great, I want the Euro to break up or crumble, so that each country and its people have to live within their means, without having to beggar their neighbor countries, with different laws, taxation, tax paying habits, cultures and way of lives, and getting back to balanced import/export ratios.

East Germany is getting transfers from West-G, as the south of Italy (Mezzogiorno) is beeing financed by the north of I. In both cases, the transfers provoked the opposite of what was planned. The receipient regions arranged themselves with the transfer payments, with no need to change anything to get more competitive. In Germany, thrifty net payer Bavaria doesn't allow itself to afford some luxury spendings meanwhile east Germany does so using the transferred cash. What do you call it else than moral hazard.

Europe is too big for Germany to make a transfer union.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 03:25 | 6096193 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

Greece is Bankrupt

the greek Government has spent beyond their means for years,

and they financed their corruption by taking on more and more Debt.

now they try to blame everyone else for their abysmal failures.

They even rob their own national reserves to scrape the money together

so they can stay with the IMF and run up more Debt.

Remember, there are only 11 million People in Greece.

How badly would you have to fuck up and mismanage the Greece Economy,

to end up where they are now?

you would have to be totally corrupt, as the Greek Governments have been for years.

living above their means.

So service your Debt obligations, or get out of the EU.

that's about it.

WR;)



Fri, 05/15/2015 - 03:37 | 6096203 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Greece won't leave the EU until you make them leave. Why would they leave, when more money can be had? That's like asking a long time welfare recipient, to just stop receiving benefits on their own. Never gonna happen.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 03:33 | 6096199 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"The EU, and the eurozone, are made up of sovereign nations. Who function in a system of equal partners, certainly from a political point of view. So the German FinMin has no business even talking about a Greek referendum, no more than the Greeks have talking about a German referendums."

this is completely correct, and it is bad manners by Schaeuble to even talk about Other People's Referenda

on the other side, many, many europeans are sick of how the media, particularly a subsection of it, talks about our referenda. Schaeuble is, in his mind, responding to this and many other bullshit with this kind of bad manners

interestingly, this shocks some of the media, not because of the bad manners but because of the sheer novelty of hearing national ministers having a personal opinion. and markets, being what they are, constantly watch for those words in order to glimpse what is not there to glimpse

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:23 | 6096255 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

Greece is not a souvereign nation, it´s a failed state and a debt colony of the EU. Those who own it, like the German government and the other creditors have all the right they want to decide about Greece fate. The Greeks are lucky that they are still allowed to vote on something anyway.

 

That´s reality and nothing else. If the Greeks don´t like that, pay back your debt.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:50 | 6096326 elvy
elvy's picture

Zieg heil, insane person, zieg heil!

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:00 | 6096392 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Red eyes at morning, sailor, take warning.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 09:41 | 6096883 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Red eyes in the morning, ZHer take warning.   Fixed it.....

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 08:26 | 6096570 Why.Not.
Why.Not.'s picture

I think it would be more correct to say that Greece is an irresponsible sovereign state, but that doesn't make them unique. The 800 kg. gorilla in the room is the fact that the fundamental governing philosophy of most states leads eventually to an untenable financial situation. The Greeks, bless their little Mediterranean hearts, voted in a socialist government that is never going to see their own philosophy as the core problem. And there it stands, with the major creditors trying to figure how to get well by manipulating the ECB and IMF before the ship goes down.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:16 | 6096289 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I wonder if you would take such a stance when members of the EU comment on various nation's referenda.  

Ireland, France & the Netherlands come to mind ...  

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:10 | 6096337 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Yes, I do. And I did. Commenting about Other People's Politics is often bad manners, particularly if done in a disrespectful way, and particularly when done about referenda

this does not mean that it's a criminal action, or that it isn't a right of a citizen in a country that has freedom of speech. and yes, even ministers of state are citizens

I constantly comment about various political stances of various political factions in various countries of which I am not a citizen, for example

what I dislike, though, it the disrespectful paired with bullshit and propagandistic stances. Ireland, France and the Netherlands come to mind

in France and the Netherlands, the referendum was about a EU Constitution. which would have been a step in direction of a federal EU

in Ireland, the issue is even worse. Ireland's constitution mandates a referendum for constitutional adjustments, and some treaties needed that. the Irish first voted no on one treaty, then voted yes, later, on a similar (but not exactly the same) treaty

and a lot of utter bullshit has been written about that "repeated referendum". Where I'd say: what about repeating any and all referenda? some people bring that absurd notion of "they brought up the referendum until people voted yes", which, if you really take it apart, is on the side of childish

referenda belong to all of humanity, in the same as the classic paper ballot with monitors and watchers. they are precious, and as a system they need the necessary reverence for clarity and simplicity, but also some restraint in talking trash about them. and who does not show neither the reverence nor the restraint in bullshitting about them, gets heavely on my nerves

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:35 | 6096363 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

You forget the little part about the EU amending the rules after the first Irish "no" to allow the "block" to accept a treaty without unanamious consent.  

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:14 | 6096395 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

are you putting EU Council voting rules in a direct relation with the Irish referenda? I checked on that assumption, and it's bogus. did you check on the timelines?

Haus, I am sincerely thinking of leaving this club of ZH. also in small part because of you, I fear. I have better to do then having shallow debates, particularly now that my health is getting better

you can't even imagine how many arguments I have against the EU. but for some reasons, it's the bogus propagandistic ones that seem to attract most

which don't seem really neither interested in facts nor in real, serious trends. I guess another victim of the shortsightedness of the modern financial world

and this pisses me mightly off. have your fun, and may you find what you are searching. over and out      

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:36 | 6096449 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

As long as you keep toting the Center-Left party line of mainstream "EU" politics, I will keep calling you & the EU out in all possible ways that I can.  I will try and persude people to vote/act out/protest against the EU and the EUR to whatever extint I can.  

I want nothing more than to see the edifice of lies & ignorance brought down under its own weight and insanity.  

If you don't like it .. ok.  

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 08:26 | 6096571 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

me? tottering the "Center-Left" party line? oh, come on, that's as hilarious as the Norvegian ZH account telling me I'm a "reactionary"

so? am I hindering you in persuading whatever you want to persuade? come on, here on ZH you are preaching to the choir with your "calling names in all possible ways against the EU and the EUR" or however you understand your phrase

don't put it in any way as if this was a place full of people that you would still have to convince to vote/act out/protest against the EU and the EUR. that's a huge spinning half-truth

meanwhile, you do contribute in building lies and ignorance... when it suits your purposes, don't you? no, I don't like it. I still have not crossed yet that cultural bridge versus Americans that so often moan and shout when someone lies... but then somehow love the spin of half-truths when it's in the "right" direction. I don't like it when my nephews do it and I don't like it when it's done here on ZH

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:59 | 6096390 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Referenda are not permitted for Germans. Banned by Constitution because they twice voted in referenda 1935 and 1955 for Saarland to return to Germany rather than stay under French Occupation

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 03:35 | 6096202 winchester
winchester's picture

10y german bond under attack for days, backstab to test stability. next big fail in communication about greece case could give another boost to the speed of the collapse we are all watching for decades now.

 

i remember the chris crash course on youtube when he explain for long time  water drop by water drop it take time to full a stadium at third of the capacity but only minutes to get it under water.

 

every major event we see now is a stage of acceleration of the fulling of this stadium, the next huge event will not be controlable.

 

prepare accordingly.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 03:40 | 6096204 robnume
robnume's picture

Spot on article. Been a Euro-sceptic from day one. Should've named me Cassandra. National sovereignty should not take a back seat to central planning fidouchebags in Bruxelles.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 03:57 | 6096218 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Cassandra's main attribute was that whatever she prophecied, nobody believed it

in your case, there are millions of Euro-sceptics from day one, and millions that think the national sovereignty is dependent from a national currency - interestingly, sometimes even while asking for a different inter- or supra- national currency like gold to come back, never mind the illogical part of it - and even further millions capable to mix up what is Berlin or Paris or Athens saying with what "Brussels" is saying or doing

further, there are a few megabanks that not only help those millions to cherish and foster those well-accepted beliefs, but also make a lot of dough out of it, encouraging them to bet on those beliefts

Cassandra? I fear it would not be an apt nick. In this blog, for example, I am more Cassandra then you

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 03:41 | 6096205 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

oh, this is again a new version of that old story:

"Granted, all parties involved may be influenced by what happened 4 years ago -more Bloomberg-:

Schaeuble’s stance on a Greek plebiscite is a departure from Germany’s position in 2011. Back then, Prime Minister George Papandreou dropped his plan for a referendum after Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy urged him not to hold the vote. 

That referendum involved a haircut on Greek debt ‘negotiated’ by the troika, which Papandreou wanted the Greek people to vote on. And Merkel and Sarkozy did much more than ‘urge’ Papandreou not to hold the vote. They were afraid it would drive Greece from the eurozone, and scared the sh*t out of him so much he withdrew the plan a few days after proposing it."

<sigh>

it's really depressing. Papandreu, Merkel, Sarkozy, they can talk about referenda as much as they want.

There is only one body that can call for a referendum in Greece, and that is the elected Greek Parliament. period, freaking simple full stop period

All the rest is simply blablalbla, empty talk, and ought to be treated as such... except if you are involved in propagandistic "work" that is

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 03:58 | 6096219 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Referendums might make decisions but they will not in this case solve the problems of Greece.

Everyone can bag Greece all they like but the sad reality is that every nation is a Greece in the making due to unsustainable economic paradigms.

Let the Greeks suffer. They have suffered numerous times in their history and on each occasion they have recovered in one shape or another.

Suffering may be bad for the body but it works wonders for our soul. And this is where man's predicament lies.......in his poorly maintained soul.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:00 | 6096222 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

once the money runs out, for the politicians who raided all the pension funds...

once the money is gone, Greece will sell out whatever is still left to sell...even though Varoufakis was never ever going to sell off national assets....

Greece in advanced talks with China's Cosco on Piraeus port

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/05/15/eurozone-greece-piraeusport-idU...

WR;)

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:18 | 6096344 xcehn
xcehn's picture

"A sale of the Piraeus Port would be a reversal on the part of Greece’s Syriza party-led government, which had earlier pledged to block such moves. As part of ongoing negotiations to unlock aid to Europe’s most-indebted nation, Greek’s European creditors have asked for more specific policy proposals in areas including labor market deregulation, a pension-system overhaul, sales tax reform and privatization of state-held assets. "

Greece to Privatize Port, Airports in Concession to Creditors

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-14/greece-to-privatize-po...

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:01 | 6096224 Global Observer
Global Observer's picture

Whether or not Greece has a referendum -about the euro or anything else- is up to the Greek people, and first of all to the government they elected only 3.5 months ago.

There is really no need to make a big deal out of this. In 2011 the Greek government of the day wanted to put the bail-out proposals to vote and was strongly discouraged by the other EZ countries like France from doing so. Syriza was elected on a platform of ending austerity, but doing so while remaining in the eurozone. It was Syriza which was openly considering a referendum on exit from the Euro and the others are only reacting to that proposal, not suggesting or requiring Syriza to do so. There are procedural problems that need to be addressed before such a decision is taken. Knowing that an exit of Greece from the euro is on the cards, the ECB cannot continue to provide liquidity to Greek banks against the collateral of Greek domestic assets, which would be redenominated in Drachma after an exit. But the very announcement of a referendum will cause a panic and all deposits in Greek banks will either be encashed or moved out of Greece causing an even bigger liquidity crisis than the one which Greece is facing now. With ECB unable to provide liquidity given the uncertainty the Greek banking system will collapse. The only way to avoid that would be to impose capital controls before announcing the referendum. Since capital controls are against EU rules, other EU states have to agree to that.

 

Greece gave up some sovereignty when joining the EU, more of it when joining the euro and even more of it when accepting the bail-out packages. Stupid decisions like that will have costs.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:15 | 6096243 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

first, you started the comment with italics, which prevents me to give you a +1

second, your middle "block" comment is quite good, and the reason why I was going to upvote it

third, your "Greece gave up some sovereignty when joining the EU, more of it when joining the euro..." is not at the same level of quality as the rest

a country is either sovereign or it isn't a country at all. sovereignty is often misused, as word, by some pundits that love to make it something it isn't

sovereignty is not touched by membership in any kind of clubs

sovereignty is not impinged by membership to a military alliance, for example NATO

sovereignty is not impinged by membership to a trading alliance, for example the EU

sovereignty is not impinged by membership to a monetary alliance, for example the EUR, aka eurozone

sovereignty is not impinged even by occupation by foreign enemy forces on part or the totality of the national territory, or by internal crisis, or by huge financial troubles

don't confuse the "right", i.e. sovereignty... with power, i.e. the "elbow room for action" that a sovereign country has or has not

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:27 | 6096261 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

Sovereignty IS lost by the fact that you are broke.

 

That´s true for an individual person and a state and a people as well.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:32 | 6096358 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

according to your theory, neither China during the civil war nor France during the German occupation would have been sovereign countries

it's like misunderstanding the right to be armed or to talk with the fact that you are armed or talking, or not

sovereignty is the right to make the own laws. period. a treaty is a law, and can be rescinded. the whole thing has very little to do with finances

in fact, being sovereign and being in financial problems is a kind of historic given. a sovereign completely free from financial problems is kind of rare, in history

Spain, for example, ruled once the world. and went broke three times during the reign of Philip II. and this did not really make any impact on that sovereign's wars

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 08:57 | 6096669 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

Sovereignty is far from being a "right". It´s a matter of power. An occupied country is not sovereign, just like a broke country that is dependent on other countries to be funded. Spain defaulted under Philip II, but still had the military power to prevent it´s debtors from forcing them to pay. You are confusing the political theory of structural realism and reality here.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:54 | 6096282 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

ah but that is the beauty of the current situation where we are seeing Greece's "Schroedinger's sovereignty" syndrome play out!

 

If you NEED the money or TSHTF then I would argue sovereignty is gone. Sovereignty, to me, ultimately means independence of decision-making - otherwise, what's the point? - and independence from foreign military imposition is only one of the pieces that makes for independent decision-making.

 

But if your currency and financial systems and media and manufacturing base and other major institutions of modern life are run from elsewhere and are not politically responsive to the popular will, what purpose then is holding onto a nominal wisp of the memory of sovereignty? If the tanks and planes and cash necessary to defend a country against invasion and rebellion are all suppplied by bankers, who really calls the shots?

 

 

 

 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:18 | 6096298 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Could you please explain to me why a "trade alliance" 

- Shares a currency

- Has a common passport

- Has a "national" anthem 

- Has a flag

- Has a small military, with large aspirations 

- Has a parliment

I see many trade organizations without such edifices.  Why does the EU seem to need them? 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:03 | 6096332 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

Because the EU is much more than a trade union. Just get used to it.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:49 | 6096380 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I can only hope the EU falls upon its own sword when the US starts a pissing contest with the Russians, and half the club wants to go full on retard trigger happy (the British, Polish and maybe the Frogs), and the other half the club want nothing to do with it (essentially everyone else). 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:56 | 6096385 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

France owes Russia $5 billion for two Mistral helicopter carriers and Russia has end-user certificates for the stern component that they built. France is well on the path to destroying DCNS as a manufacturer

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:34 | 6096446 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Perhaps the Germany will get back into the industry once the Frogs close up shop.  I'd love to see that.  Perhaps have it built in Stralsund or Rostock, both cities need the boost of GDP.  

 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:21 | 6096349 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

since you took some time to divide it in the fields:

- currency: it's an optional club, isn't it? 19 instead of 28. the UK, Sweden, etc. all said: give me an opt-out

- passports are still a national matter. they are just recognized as "EU passports"

- as you wrote, the "national" anthem is really just an anthem, period

- nobody has to follow that flag in battle, or swear allegiance to it. technically, that flag is only for those who work for the EU org

- military? that's not true, and you know it. no EU units. whatever is on paper, it's always national units. see NATO

- yes, and that Parliament is not allowed to make own initiatives, only to approve or not those of the EU Council. something that EU federalists see as part of a lack of democracy

whatever you might say of "why are they needed"... note that it's part of a wider tendency. EurAsian Union comes to mind. Gulf State Council comes to mind

why are Russians and Arab Gulf states copying the EU? the answer lies in things like the size and power of the US and China, for example

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:44 | 6096371 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I am just illustrating that the EU as sold to the population of Europe in the 70s is a far different animal than it is today.  

Saying otherwise is dishonest.  

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:10 | 6096407 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

this applies in particular and predominantly on how British political parties "sold" that to the British public. i.e. in the English-speaking debate of the thing

meanwhile, some honest debate on facts was and is still going on in nearly all countries... on the continent only, I fear

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:34 | 6096443 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

The EU still has no earthly idea on what it wants to be.  

How can you integrate dramatically different cultures into one "super state" when the political establishment has yet to decide if it wants to be a federation or a confederation, much less acquire democratic consense of the people.  

moreover, above you said you have many critiques of the EU.  Can you name one that is material?  One that actually fucking matters and isn't some philosophical bullshit?  

Every one of your "complaints" about the EU I have seen is either philosophical, or they just aren't doing it the way you want.  I've never seen you call out its existance at all as worthy of political discussion or debate.  

Define what the EU is to become, honestly, and then let the populations decide.   

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:10 | 6096235 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Greece is but a blot on the landscape.
Frau Merkel is an agent of the Troika (a treasonous putrid cunt ).
The whole Charade is set up for easy PLUNDER by the IMF.
The SHOW will END when the Sheeples of Spain & Italy say ENOUGH.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:16 | 6096245 researchfix
researchfix's picture

What do the Greek fear? As soon as they default, there will new money come in.

Too much of that floating around to leave Greece in a vacuum.

 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:23 | 6096256 agent default
agent default's picture

The Eu is terrified of one simple thing.  A country leaving the Eurozone and the EU and achieving a dramatic recovery and growth.  That will bury the EU once and for all.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:30 | 6096263 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

Hahaha, a dramatic Greek recovery without other peoples money. You´re a delusional moron.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:36 | 6096267 agent default
agent default's picture

Sudden and hard contact with reality tends to change people and their attitudes. 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:53 | 6096321 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

Okay, so let´s throw the Greeks out of Europe already and let´s see what´s happening. I´ll be the first who applauds them if manage to create a "dramatic recovery" without getting money from other people.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:13 | 6096341 agent default
agent default's picture

I am all in favor of kicking them out of both the Eurozone and every other Western organization because they are clearly not a western country by any standard.  More like something you would expect to find in Central Africa.  So it is simple, kick them out and they can sink or swim.  I couldn't care less.  But if the somehow manage to swim, the EU is toast.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:41 | 6096367 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"The Eu is terrified of one simple thing.  A country leaving the Eurozone..."

actually, if you just read the newspapers of various countries you get a different impression.

i.e. that some people, particularly in the US are utterly terrified of a "second Lehman moment", and that they fear Greece could be that moment. and that whatever has "a setback" is doomed, another quaint notion that rhymes with "Moar Or Death" and sets this funny notion alive that "the EU or the EUR would be weaker if Greece exits"

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 08:14 | 6096535 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

I can think of one particular EU Bank that would view Greek debt repudiation as an inconvenience.

There's a good possibility that the CDS rodeo may have a few more clown hijinks than anticipated.

There will be tears.

"Next up, we have the Italian bull-rider hoping to break the 7 second mark with a mean mount called 'Vaffanculo'".

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 08:35 | 6096596 agent default
agent default's picture

Doom is not if Greece exits.  Doom is proving that there is life outside the Euro/EU and that it can be bearable.  I and many others are sick and tired of the no alternative mantra regurgitated by every other idiot passing himself off as an analyst out there.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:38 | 6096452 skistroni
skistroni's picture

I used to believe that too. However, we do have about 1.5 million unemploeyed people here, 99% of which have not changed their attitude or themselves in the last 3 years. Maybe you should reconsider your views. Reality is a hard captain indeed, but what if people have alternative options to reality? 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 09:07 | 6096702 agent default
agent default's picture

By alternative options I suppose you mean some parent or grandma, who have been drawing on their pension since the ripe old age of 45 and gives some to her unemployed "descendants"?  Don't you think for a minute I don't know what is happening in that third world failed state over there.  Everyone wanting to work in the public sector?  Where they don't even have to show up?  Hey, Greek guy, you import lemons from Argentina and olives from Egypt.  You don't even produce that.  Getting kicked out will not trigger an economic shock as you imagine or think you have experienced so far, it will send you to a situation that will make African famines look like a walk in the park.  That is what will change attitudes.  TOTAL COLLAPSE with measurable impact on the population numbers, especially the entitlement holders.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:39 | 6096272 dogfish
dogfish's picture

This drama has gone on to long realy who gives a fuck about Germany and Greece they are both the GG in PIIGGS fuck them all.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 04:49 | 6096279 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

The European Union is ONE BIG HAPPY FAMILY and i dedicate this song to it

LaLa Lai La La LaLa LaLa La Lai
LaLa La Lai LaLa LaLa LaLa LaLa
LaLaLa La Lai

Come on Ghordo, Peeps and Zingen Along wit ME

LALA LAND & LIES

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:15 | 6096294 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I think you are looking for this; 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jiaU0xbOKs

The basis of the EU's existance.  

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:42 | 6096368 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

and the basis of the EurAsian Union? just asking

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:47 | 6096377 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

To kill the USD. 

EU is there to bend over, grab its ankels and let the US do as it pleases with it. 

Tell me I am wrong.  

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:06 | 6096403 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

the EurAsian Union's purpose is to kill the USD? while the EU's purpose is to accomodate the US?

yes, you are wrong on many levels. to be frank, I don't even know where to start. I could argue the exact opposite for a long while, not that it would be nearer the facts

starting with the accusations of the US Secretary of Agriculture versus the proposed opt-outs on GMO that, according his words, "threathen world food safety"

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:54 | 6096485 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

If you think the EU is there, in practice (forget theory) to fight against the Evil Empire -- you are fooling yourself.  You bury yourself in academia and avoid the pragmatism of it all. 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 08:15 | 6096536 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you are the one thinking in terms of "the Evil Empire" and setting everything in the those terms and in relation to the "Evil Empire"

the EU was not born because of Russia or America or China, the EU was born because of France, Germany and Italy

even the EurAsian Union that Putin is talking about is first about them, and then, distant second, about the rest of the world

similarly, the Gulf Council Countries are first concerned about themselves, and then about all the rest of the world

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 11:47 | 6097463 teutonicate
teutonicate's picture

Your wrong. The EU AND the US are there to bend over, grab their collective ankels and let the cabal do as to pleases.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:13 | 6096290 Pig Dog Bay
Pig Dog Bay's picture

Greece will never be allowed to leave the Euro, that's why this tragic farce has gone on for so long.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:13 | 6096291 escapeefromOZ
escapeefromOZ's picture

Unfortunately the Greek people have been completely brainwashed . The Stockholm syndrom is an accurate assessment . How can a population love the system that keeps them enslaved to the Bankstern forever ?  This is the choice . Stay with the Euro and be slaves for generations to the Banksters and the criminal Org called EU or break free and disown the debt completely . 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:22 | 6096301 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

"Who function in a system of equal partners,"

But as we all know, some are more equal than others.

 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:32 | 6096305 Panic Mode
Panic Mode's picture

Democracy is so over rated.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:01 | 6096391 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

Greece should try a Constitutional Republic, like we have in the US. They would have fundamental rights and laws that apply to all equally. Our country would never think to interfere in the affairs of a foreign nation, or even one of 50 sovereign states when their authority has not been given to them by the Constitution. Forget rmob rule under Democracy.

/s

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 05:57 | 6096308 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

"Rich European countries are all led by politicians who want to win their next elections."

In all honesty i can say the my country (the Netherlands) is run by politicians who aspire a well payed "power" position in Brussels.

They really do not give a F* about their own country or constituans or the next national elections.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:12 | 6096339 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Or option number 3 - print state asset backed Drachma and fuck you. 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:31 | 6096357 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Some European slavemaster's are going broke. Recruitment of Muslims has gone no where. They keep blowing themselves up. 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:48 | 6096379 Peter K
Peter K's picture

De-nial is not a river.

Germany owns Greece i.e. it has senior creditor status.

Question is only whether that debt is convertible into common equity?

Germans obviously think it is....

And who is going to tell them that they are wrong?

With the exception of Putin, of course. ;)

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 06:54 | 6096384 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Since 33% Greek Debt Bailout funds are owed to Italy and Spain they should be fascinated with proposals to default and force them into crisis.

Maybe US states should rescind balanced-budget rules in  their State Constitutions and run deficits for the Feds to take care of through QE ?

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:01 | 6096394 Jack Daniels Esq
Jack Daniels Esq's picture

BB sucks on the same crack-pipe as Musk und Barry

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:17 | 6096415 Jack4952
Jack4952's picture

Recent polls of Greeks show that:

1.) The majority of Greeks wish to REMAIN in the EU;

2.) The majority of Greeks wish to END the "austerity" measures imposed by the EU, ECB and IMF (the "Troika")

These results are contradictory!

Greece can NEVER repay its debts. ALL the "bail-outs" (loans) go directly to the banks (creditors) to pay ONLY the INTEREST on this debt - and Greece is having great difficulty even paying that interest.

The ONLY way Greece can ever become prosperous again is by:

1.) The Greek government enouncing ALL debts;

2.) The return of the Drachma as its currency.

Sure, it will have a few "tough" years, but NO WORSE than the current conditions under the Troika's "austerity" measures. The Drachma will have relatively little value at first in the FOREX markets, but that will make Greeks exports incredibly inexpensive and thus greatly increase exports - an incentive for increasing production and new jobs for Greeks.

The Greek politicians, even the current Greek administration, have betrayed the Greek people!

 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:46 | 6096463 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

You forgot

3.) The majority of Greeks want more EU money.

Or was that implied with "end the austerity".

 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 08:24 | 6096566 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

All politicians, even those currently in office, have betrayed their country's people...  Name a country where that isn't true...

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:19 | 6096419 Duude
Duude's picture

I don't look upon Germany "meddling" with Greece's internal politics as much as I liken it to a bit of good advice. Greek voters should have a say on the direction of their country on such an important time as this. While the Greek voter did have their "say", when they voted the Socialist party back into power, it was based on the Socialist party's claim that they would stand up against the ECB and demand the end of austerity. Of course, the Socialist party promised something they couldn't deliver.  Its been a rather short period but its now very clear to all that Greece is on an unsustainable path and isn't winning on any of their demands. The Greek voter needs to now have a "say" on whether they are ready to drop out of the EU, bring back the Drachma, and live within the country's own means instead of that of other peoples' money, or accept more radical changes in their economy, such as privatizing virtually everything the government has been taking from the private sector over the last few decades, raising pension ages for all, raising taxes, liberalizing labor laws, etc......

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:27 | 6096434 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

But don’t stay in a ‘union’ with outsiders from DC who think they can tell you, Texans or (Hoosiers or fill in the state of your choice), how to run a democracy, or when to hold a referendum. That can only be a road to nowhere.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:32 | 6096438 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

The European Monetary Union is a Conduit for Vichy DC/ Goldman Sucks Dwollar Hegemony.

Gotta laugh at ANYONE who believes the EU was pasted together for ANY other purpose.

The Cabal/ Troika will paper over the cracks until there is nothing left to steal OR the 'middle members' grow a pair and drive a stake into these vampire blood-sucking leaches.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:33 | 6096441 slakbas
slakbas's picture

Seriously, what a bad article. You're basically arguing that Greece leave the Euro and EU because of foreign meddling.. In what way would that be prevented if it were outside the euro and the EU and it still owed money to the IMF, ECB or EU? Foreign meddling happens all the time, inside or outside the EU, and it is only called foreign meddling because of foreign leverage over the Greeks - otherwise it is just political spam worthy of anybody's junk mail.

The Referendum makes sense because any deal would be a breach of Syriza's campaign promises (duh). Hence if Syriza is concerned of betraying its electorate, it can either push the reform through or ask the people to assume responsibility and wash their hands in it. I think Germany only cares of getting a deal. It is a legitimate concern, and to support a referendum is also basically saying that the EU would provide some breathing space (fiancial support) to Greece until the decision is taken, for the sake of making a decision.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 07:33 | 6096442 slakbas
slakbas's picture

Seriously, what a bad article. You're basically arguing that Greece leave the Euro and EU because of foreign meddling.. In what way would that be prevented if it were outside the euro and the EU and it still owed money to the IMF, ECB or EU? Foreign meddling happens all the time, inside or outside the EU, and it is only called foreign meddling because of foreign leverage over the Greeks - otherwise it is just political spam worthy of anybody's junk mail.

The Referendum makes sense because any deal would be a breach of Syriza's campaign promises (duh). Hence if Syriza is concerned of betraying its electorate, it can either push the reform through or ask the people to assume responsibility and wash their hands in it. I think Germany only cares of getting a deal. It is a legitimate concern, and to support a referendum is also basically saying that the EU would provide some breathing space (fiancial support) to Greece until the decision is taken, for the sake of making a decision.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 08:09 | 6096505 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

continuing to deal with the EU will only delay the inevitable, because all they're really interested in is getting their loans guaranteed and the fat interest payment.  they do not give greece or the welfare of its citizens another thought.   greece must exit the union, default on that ridiculous debt strongarmed upon it by EU banksters, and return to it's own currency and autonomy. there will undoubtedly be issues with credit early on, but with a solid plan by greek businessmen and politicians and without overwhelming encumberances and interference from outsiders, they will become competitive very quickly. 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 08:49 | 6096641 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

Schäuble is missing option #3 -

 

Greek citizens could accept the economic reforms AND  opt to leave the euro.

 

Make the hard changes so you have an economy that works but still leave the euro - and of course default on the debt.

Do the Greek people have the will to be independent or are they the EBT class of EUROPE?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 08:53 | 6096652 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

If the Greeks made any real move towards taking their chances elsewhere, Athens would be bombed to the ground. Ask the Serbians how NATO treats peoples who insist on being masters in their own house.

If a people have ambitions higher than being someone else's debt slaves, they need to join the nuclear club, not a currency union.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 09:20 | 6096778 Condor96
Condor96's picture

http://blogdigeopoliticainternazionale.blogspot.it/2015/05/lindia-si-aff...

India and China ... 1962 conflitt, economic partnership ! 

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 10:07 | 6097003 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

They’re not going to let Germany and France and Holland call the shots in their economies and countries now. Not a chance.

 

Of course they will.   Greece's leaders, from all parties, are blind to all except that European money is ther only political salvation.  They will all sell the idea of Greece for cash to cling to power, no matter how diminished.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 10:22 | 6097072 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

This is what the EU offers the Greek people.

Quick and easy relocation out from under the Greek Government and the Greek oligarchs behind it.

Other than that...only pain, pain inflicted because of said oligarchs pork, waste, and theft...which, being oligarchs, they simply pass to average Greeks with narry a skipped step.

Fri, 05/15/2015 - 11:27 | 6097329 Prober
Prober's picture

to Raul Ilargi Meijer

you are a moron and proletariat socialist propagandist, I would have you recycled

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!