This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Big Lie: Serial Retail Sales Downward Revisions Hide Ugly Truth
Over the last 5 years, over 20% of the initial gains in Retail Sales have been 'removed' by serial downward revisions in later months.
For over 65% of the time, a 'good' number prints, stocks rally, the everything-is-awesome meme is confirmed, and then a month later (or more) retail sales data is downwardly revised.
35 downward revisions and 19 upward (and 8 of last 9 downward) for an aggregate spread between initial data and revised of over 5 percentage points (of a 25% gain).
It is all too easy to point the finger at China's 'manufactured' data, but perhaps some reflection on the home truths in America is worthwhile.
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 21233 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Only the algos believe the numbers
Since Lehman®
If you want to look at bad numbers, just look at the drop in overseas sales of American technology gear and computer services like routers and cloud storage. In an AP story today, Joel Brenner, the former NSA IG, says that the Snowden leaks have cost U.S. companies $100 billion and counting. Then this lying bureaucrat, on a hefty government pension and with a job at MIT as a deferred kickback for past favors, has the nerve to imply that the 40 year old CIA Project Minaret involving 1,650 Americans eavesdropped without warrants was worse than the current NSA programs, where 320 million Americans were eavesdropped without warrants based on secret and illegal FISA court rulings. Someone should at least cancel Brenner's pension as a penalty for his conspiracy to violate the rights of Americans. And then outlaw the FISA court, filled with judges whose role model is Nazi People's Court judge Roland Freissler.
---
"You now live in a glass house," Joel Brenner, NSA inspector general from 2002 to 2006, said in a speech marking the 40th anniversary of the congressional hearings into the intelligence scandals of the Watergate era. "How could anyone think the bulk collection program would remain secret?"
It's not that there no longer can be national security secrets, said Brenner, a lawyer who retired in 2009 after serving as the top U.S. counterintelligence official. But "the idea that the broad rules governing your activities -not specific operations, but the broad rules-can be kept secret is a delusion. And they should not be kept secret."
Snowden, a former NSA systems administrator, has said he decided to leak thousands of top secret documents to journalists because of what he viewed as deception by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, when he denied to Congress in 2013 that the U.S. was collecting records on millions of Americans. But Snowden went on to reveal programs that had nothing to do with domestic surveillance, but rather involved NSA's foreign intelligence gathering operations.
"If you disagree with me on this, do your own damage assessment," Brenner said, according to text of his remarks that he provided. "In the wake of Snowden, our country has lost control of the geopolitical narrative; our companies have lost more than $100 billion in business and counting."
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NSA_SURVEILLANCE?SITE=AP&SECTI...
Article 3, Section 3, Treason.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..
"The guillotines are listening."
Snowden didn't cause shit. Nobody forced the NSA to illegally eavesdrop on virtually everyone.
Blame the messenger, nope sorry. I know who the criminals are. Business losses? Tough shit- blame the government spies.
brought to you by the friendly folks from the robert rubin camp
We get to bunk with him in the nice barracks?
only the first news count
No take backs.
it really is orwellian. is there ANYTHING from our government that we can trust any more?
Well....nope.
We can trust that taxes will go up and freedoms will go down. Very trustworthy in that regard.
You ask. Still not fully convinced, eh?
Orwell was an optimist. On a more positive note, I heard the government was increasing cocoa rations this week.
Are we still at war with East Asia?
Only on days witrh a d in them.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/wednesday-cable-ratings-msnbc-hits-lowest-dem...
This is what you get for being Government agent provocateurs. As the local MSM circles the drain so does the advertizement royalties.
No whining, you've earned it.
Ratings are only effective at measuring the reach of the propaganda.
Let's be honest, the real press bosses in DC will subsidize behind the scenes to keep the public "informed"...
S&P just downgraded Chicago two notches from A+ to A- with a negative credit watch--still above junk as opposed to Moody's.
US Treasury bond market welcomes one and all
Last Man Standing
I just returned a bunch of crap from amazon, they are gonna be pissed.
in Census Bureau's defense
fewer and FEWER chains are reporting monthly sales.
Leading into and in the last recession walmart, target, and kohls (to name a few) still reported monthly sales ... and no longer do (why when sales suck and gives competitor free intel).
Try to get a real time handle on sales with the likes of "stein mart" reporting monthly
Oh yea baby!
And once again
I am reminded why I adore this site!!!!
Just keep your pants on at least, please
Lol
If they weren't fucking us over so bad..... U couldn't delight me with that oh so delicious of a chart .... U got going there!!!!!!
Parade it!!!!!
Made my day!!!!
Huge inventory builds are GREAT for big box retail.
Nothing says "customer" like 80% off.
Should be great for dollar stores and hiring...if only part time...as well.
GREAT as in good news = bad?
Oh by thw way, this 'expansion' in retail sales is NOT corrected for inflation, so it looks much beter that it is.
Fraud starts with dishonest accounting. Sick of saying it.....
So do I believe any numbers from any government source? No and no and no.
"In the wake of Snowden, our country has lost control of the geopolitical narrative; our companies have lost more than $100 billion in business and counting." JAMES CLAPPER IS A LYING SCUMBAG. Surprise!
There is no demand, Neo.
No demand for spoons either.
Increasing demand for sharp knives.
With the copious amounts of discretionary, disposable income overflowing in the coffers of the middle class, I can't imagine why there would be dismal retail sales. Maybe if the 1%, whose wealth has quadrupled over the past six years, purchased 9 times more stuff we'd all be singing "We're in the Money".
Rule of Thumb - the government lies - trust no statistic put out by the government - assume all statistics are significantly worse than you are told
"When it's bad enough - you have to lie" JC Juncker.
The lies are in line with this:
THE PERFECT STORM (see p. 59 onwards)
The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf
Retail sales were "flat" in April, soon to be adjusted to negative. The "low gas prices will boost retail spending" prediction was obviously wrong as retail sales declined every month of 1Q2015. US consumer sentiment is at a 7 month low. I surmise much of the "growth" is on essentials, not discretionary goods.