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UMich Consumer Sentiment Crashes As Surging Gas Prices Trump Stock Record Highs
Soaring gas prices dueled with soaring stock prices to leave University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and it appears the former won. Printing at the weakest level since Oct 2014, UMich dropped to 88.6 (vs 95.9 expectations). This is the biggest miss on record.. and biggest MoM drop since Dec 2012. Both current conditons and expectations plunged despite surges in inflation expectations. Higher income expectations are starting to plunge - at their lowest in 7 months - and household finances are seenas the worst since July 2014. And finally, the survey's spokspersonsays that respondents showed "concern over employment."
In case you needed to understand what drives Consumer Sentiment (or perhaps exactly who UMich is actually surveying), here is the following....
Higher gas prices crush confidence... and stocks don't matter
Charts: Bloomberg
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Great for stocks. New all time highs coming up.
My consumer sentiment has not changed since 2008 - it's non-existant, except for guns and ammo - I have a very high sentiment that I will be buying more soon.
And when you realize you have an excess of bullets and you realize you have a friend in me I will trade you some bullets for my silver.
:)
Oh and if it is skill in trade you need I'll show you farm techniques.
2,000 Univ of Michigan students really hate the iWatch and do not plan on spending their student loan on it.
Opinion poll dressed up as science. Things are getting worse and the debt serf's know it, and all the cheerlaeding is starting to have zero effect on the real world.....
Big surprise consumers don't like gas prices surging higher..
High gas prices? Let's talk about that for a second.
If it worked once, it should work again. Except now no one can afford it, and that could be a problem.
And what caused the huge spike in oil prices? Take a wild guess. Obviously Goldman had help — there were other players in the physical-commodities market — but the root cause had almost everything to do with the behavior of a few powerful actors determined to turn the once-solid market into a speculative casino. Goldman did it by persuading pension funds and other large institutional investors to invest in oil futures — agreeing to buy oil at a certain price on a fixed date. The push transformed oil from a physical commodity, rigidly subject to supply and demand, into something to bet on, like a stock. Between 2003 and 2008, the amount of speculative money in commodities grew from $13 billion to $317 billion, an increase of 2,300 percent. By 2008, a barrel of oil was traded 27 times, on average, before it was actually delivered and consumed.
GS flips the bid and the POMO desk rolls on....
Markets should rally nicely
This UMich survey is the dumbest fucking thing Ive ever heard of. Why does anyone pay attention to this number at all. Fuck the consumer. Fuck the consumer. If we were all more sustainable and self-reliant we wouldnt need to consume bullshit we dont need
butt dat wuld mean we has to think or some shit
ow my balls is on so go see it...
it is a bad survey due to being weighted by how optimistic
80% (lets say the bottom 80%) can be mildly more pessimistic
BUT
20% (lets say the top 20% who are heavily in equities) can be very bullish
survey can go UP
And who the hell do they call? I've never been called, and have never known anyone who was called. They pinging unemployeed house-wives watching the Price Is Right to measure the "pulse" of the consumer?
Of course stocks do not matter. QE never ended. A balloon with a pinhole needs constant pumping or it will deflate. Thats your QE. It can never end.
Consumers serve the state.
"concern over employment."
but we're at 5.4%!
You can just join the circus with 93 million other Americans.
It's a really big tent.
When I left college I was under the expectation that my salary would go up during my career. That was one of the reasons that debt wasn't so scary, because you were always going to earn more. Not so today. Your income is never going to "grow into your house payment". If you can't afford it today, you're probably not going to be able to afford it 10 years from now.
THAT is the sentiment that will hamstring consumer attitudes. That and not knowing what page of Obamacare is going to go into affect next, costing a family another $300/month.
Mehhh... Let me know when I can have one of those beds in Berkley for $500.00 a month. </sarc>
All very bullish. Just so fucking bullish. BTFD and whatnot.
So when we are all driving electric cars is consumer sentiment going to 1,000,000++++?
the phoenix university sentiment survey of its online yoga students recorded an all time high
From the university that uses skin color as a primary deciding factor for enrollment.
The Consumer doth protest too much. Sit them in an exploding airbag vehicle and let them experience modern technology!
MICHIGAN'S CURTIN COMMENTS IN BLOOMBERG CONFERENCE CALL
CONSUMERS BECOMING CONVINCED GAS PRICES WILL REMAIN LOW (but everyone who CNBC has on says that the reason retail sales have not popped is because it takes time for people to feel as tho gas prices will stay lo & since retail sales have not moved up, people are not convinced the price drop is transitory)
CURTIN SAYS DOESN'T EXPECT CONSUMER SPENDING TO RETRENCH (uh, it already has)
CURTIN: MAJORITY OF DECLINES THIS SIZE OCCURED IN RECESSIONS (i was told the economy has been growing & picking up steam)
CURTIN SAYS SAVING RATE LIKELY TO FALL AS GAS WINDFALL SPENT ("gas windfall spent" as evidenced by lower retail & housing sales)
CURTIN SAYS UPPER-INCOME EARNERS MOST CONCERNED ABOUT ECONOMY (bids hitting $100+ million for 1 brush-stroke of yellow, 1 brush-stoke of blue says otherwise)
This is what they will never tell you: any gas windfall went to pay for Joe Sixpack and Sally Housecoat's Obamacare nut
Recession at hand
Bill Gross wrong ... again
see everyone @ 10 yr yield 1%
Does the math of higher prices really work? I used to do a tank a week (17 gallons). At $3.80/gl vs $3.00/gl, that's only $13.60 per week, or about $54 per month. That's the margin between happy thronging consumers and empty malls?
I don't think so.
WE pay 8 bucks a gallon equivalent here in Europe and the autobahns and malls are packed.
I have way more disposable income here than I ever had living in the USA.
So your gas is dirt cheap.
How many people drive an hour to work in Europe?
Lots of them. why don't you come here and see for yourself? I know people that live here in NL and work in Cologne (120 miles). Of course they can cruise at 120mph legally so doesn't take long to get there.
Having lived in Ann Arbor, I can assure you that 98% of the inhabitants of that city have their heads up their asses. Anything coming out of that city is suspect.
Human Emotion(s) Charts leave me numb.
" Let them eat cake! "
Mid grade is over 3$ a gallon where I live. Can't remember the last time I saw gas more expensive than diesel
Went up 50 cents in a month. Guess the powers that be got tired of trying crash the Russian economy
Can there be any greater proof that markets no longer price commodities on supply versus demand