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Stephen King Warns "The Second Great Depression Only Postponed, Not Avoided"
Reading like his name-sake's horror novels, HSBC's Chief Economist Stephen King unleashes a torrent of truthiness about the Titanic-like economic ocean liner that is headed for an iceberg except this fragile ship doesn’t have lifeboats. As ValueWalk's Mark Melin notes, what is different with this economic recovery is that, unlike most, "the recovery phase has not marked a return to economic growth," nor has it ushered in a return to policy "normality." From King’s point of view, the normal recovery “typically allows policymakers to rebuild their stocks of ammunition, providing them with room to fight the next economic battle.” Problem is, under the regime of quantitative easing, the central bank central planners are now out of bullets as the economic recovery and the stock bull market is long in the tooth.
Stephen King: Economy is like Titanic except without lifeboats
In his research piece titled “The world economy’s titanic problem: Coping with the next recession without policy lifeboats,” King notes it has been six years since the last recession. Without specifically saying it, those who follow quantitative market probability note that bullish stock market environments last, on average, 67 months. The current bullish economic environment, depending on where you call the low point, is nearly 72 months old.
What is different with this economic recovery is that, unlike most, “the recovery phase has not been marked a return to economic growth,” nor has it ushered in a return to policy “normality.” In a normal environment interest rates have risen, tax revenues have rebounded, welfare payments shrunk, and government deficits have declined – “and, on some occasions, have even turned into surpluses.”
Stephen King: In QE-driven economic recovery, policymakers are out of ammunition
From King’s point of view, the normal recovery “typically allows policymakers to rebuild their stocks of ammunition, providing them with room to fight the next economic battle.” Problem is, under the regime of quantitative easing, the central bank central planners are now out of bullets as the economic recovery and the stock bull market is long in the tooth.
Quantitative easing has not built a a “real” economic foothold other that instilling a four letter word for investors: hope. “The higher value of financial assets have not translated into decent economic growth,” he said, and then documented what many hedge fund managers and economic analysis points out, that quantitative fairy dust isn’t driving sustainable economic growth:
It may be that QE has merely driven a wedge between financial hope and economic reality. Worse, if the next recession simply provokes more QE, are investors already beginning to believe that, once again, they are to be continuous beneficiaries of what was once affectionately known as the “Greenspan put”? This was the belief – held most strongly during the late-1990s tech bubble – that the Fed would stand ready to offer support in the event of economic weakness, inevitably encouraging even more in the way of risk-loving behavior.
Stephen King: We are closer to the next recession with few bullets remaining
King says that “if history is any guide, we are probably now closer to the next one (recession),” as he points out that the QE recovery has not accomplished what previous recoveries have: enabled monetary and fiscal policymakers to replenish their ammunition. In fact, the QE recovery has “been distinguished by a persistent munitions shortage.”
King goes on to outline solutions to a potential forthcoming recession, which is difficult to predict in an environment where debt is literally “out of control” and economic central planners have few bullets available to them.
These include 1) reducing the risk of recession; 2) reverting to quantitative easing; 3) moving away from inflation targeting; 4) using fiscal policy to replace monetary policy; (v) using fiscal and monetary policy together in a bid to introduce so-called “helicopter money”; and 5) pushing interest rates higher through structural reforms designed to lower excess savings, most obviously via increases in retirement age.
“We conclude that only the final option is likely to lead to economic success,” he said. “Politically, however, it seems implausible. As a result, we are faced with a serious shortage of effective policy lifeboats.”
Stephen King: The Second Great Depression Only Postponed, Not Avoided Altogether
Knowing that central banks are potentially hooked on QE for the long term is, at best, likely to lead to the mis-pricing of financial assets. That, in turn, might lead to a deterioration in the quality of investment and, hence, lower productivity growth over the medium term. At worst, it may lead to a repeat of the asset price bubbles that have proved to be so disruptive to economic activity.
In the absence of conventional policy ammunition, an addiction to QE could ultimately mean that the second great depression was only postponed, not avoided altogether.
Source: ValueWalk's Mark Melin
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Who thought it was "The Shining" Stephen King?
Grow veggies and stuff.
Camp stove, water tank, etc.
Damn! I was thinking Stephen King? That's going to be some incredible doom porn.
I think he needs to rethink his hair 'style'.
Economic Armageddon and Financial Apocalypse Are Upon Us
What's this!?
A guy with a British accent not selling something??
Well I'll never get that 5 minutes back....
Stephen King Warns "The Second Great Depression Only Postponed, Not Avoided"
So tell us something we don’t already know.
Coming to a theater near you....
http://galeinnes.blogspot.com/2015/04/a-rapidly-changing-world.html
. So tell us something we don’t already know.
I upvoted you because well, you're right. We all know it. The difference is that this time it's a head honcho from a decent size bankster institution that's come out and said it.
Big difference in how the sheeple see what us riff raff say and what someone in a position of 'authority' has to say!
Cheers
Its the new 'fear' cut.
Makes sense.
I tried some dandelion greens out of my yard yesterday. I've read that they are edible. Maybe they are but they taste like my ex-girlfriend's yeast infections. Not good.
try nibbling on the fresh light green new sprouts not the 3 week old dog shit and piss dark green shit
The ‘FOUR HORSEMEN’ Herald the Death Knell of Predatory Capitalism
If your piss is dark green, I would lay off the dandelions.
They've gotta be young. A lot of plants taste nasty after they've bolted (sent up a flowering head.) Lettuce tastes like shit after it has bolted. Beet greens, chard, spinach and things like that taste fine.
"they taste like my ex-girlfriend's yeast infections"
Third rule of fight club SHOWER
Damn, if you are americanreality, that part of the northern hemisphere is lost
I left my ex girlfriend because of a yeast infection. American women and people have become incapable of understanding basic human functions and science. For nearly 1 1/2 years I told her she needed to "wash" because she had a yeast infection. She called me an asshole when I mentioned it and told me I was a moron. And we wonder why they can't grasp more complex issues.
1 1/2 YEARS!! It took you that long to ditch that filthy.............
We were together for longer than that. This is the same person that could make me feel guilty for eating food (because I'm poor). This is also the same person who screamed at me for eating salsa saying we couldnt afford salsa. The kicker is that the salsa was totally made from scratch with veggies I grew myself! American women are fucking lunatics.
how old are you?
Old enough to know better. The problem is I'm part of the male throw away class. Thirty something, divorced, paying 55% of everything I make to child support, then the rest is for taxes and bills. I don't get food stamps, no welfare, nothing. Luckily I have a good family or I would be homeless. Well, technically I consider myself homeless, I live in a small room, go to work to pay child support and repeat. And that's my life for 10 more years. Then I'll be able to mortgage a house at the age of 50 and get locked in on a sweet 30 year fixed! I'm hoping to retire at 115. I can't wait.
I'm lucky that I never was sucessful enough to attract a wife and too scared of divorce to get married out of desparation. I suggest dropping the red pill on your kids because with your ex and the department of education controling their indoctrination your kids will just be the next batch of victims.
therationalmale .com
rooshV.com
and all the links in the sidebar.
Best thing to do to your ex is be seen with younger hotter tighter more feminine women. She'll lose her shit.
.
The Dead Shining Nugget by Stephen King.
http://www.amazon.com/dredrock
Free on Kindle!
Eat dandelions and other such wild/hardy greens and herbs before or after the flowers bloom or they 'bolt', IE: the center stems get long in preparaton for flowering, for mildest taste.
Dandelion greens do in fact tend to be rather bitter and are an aquired taste, however the yellow blossoms -which should be picked fresh and eaten quickly lest they wilt- are delicious in salads, as a last moment addition to stir fry, and make a very festive edible garnish to bbq, roasts, side dishes, etc...
I regularly dandelion greens in salads with chickory, lamb's quarter ( a very hardy, even invasive relative of spinich which also wilts very quickly thus never seen at market; but happens to make a delectable 'spinish pie' ) and the like.
I love fresh dandelion flowers on top of pancakes with butter and maple syrup or honey...
Dandelions tend to come up very quickly after temperatures moderate in the spring, well before most other salad greens and herbs, and thus have a particular value as an early food source. They are also some of the last greens to stunt in the autumn.
Hares and rabbits also favor dandelions, both the leafs and flowers.
If you took the dandelions, lamb's quarters, thistle and purslane out of my garden I doubt there would be anything left alive.
Learn to work with what you have in natural abundance or work to replace it.
Many hardy/invasive species are excellent foodstuffs.
Jerusalem artichoke is quite aggressive, especially the dark purple tuber producing variety. The tubers resemble potatoes somewhat but jerusalem artichokes are not starches and, although if eaten undercooked or in excessive amounts cause flatulence, they do not cause spikes in blood sugar immediately after eating as do potatoes and are thus useful in moderating carbohydrate/sugar/insulin management.
It is disconcerting to watch my neighbors employ machinery/hired labor and pesticides at great costs to maintain their completely inedible lawns and then cart home many of the very same 'organic' vegetables and greens and herbs that I grow and enjoy just yards away with little management or trouble.
I grow and enjoy over 40 foodstuffs annually..
Enough basil for pesto to eat all year round.
Enough jerusalem artichokes to eat nearly all year round.
Enough herbs to eat fresh and dry all year round.
Food scarcity in most of the United States, beyond those spaces that are excessively urbanized, is a simple matter of indolence and/or ignorance as to production techniques and identification of available of edibles.
built a moderate-sized hugelkultur hill last year, a few paces from the front door. Sprinkled seeds for soil building, salad greens and a few aromatics, a couple roots. Dandelion was fully volunteer but definitely got included in my recipes... had a massive daily salad which after a couple of months settled on a base of dandelion, kale or broccoli leaves, mustard greens and aragula. Sometimes even plantain from the tougher corners of the plot.
Was actually surprised how well dandelion blends with other sharp greens :)
@newsboy, +1000
Anybody who has looked at how complex food supply chains are should be terrified about what would happen if the financial system locked up and farmers didn't get paid for their crops.
Go down fighting............................
Titanic-like economic ocean liner that is headed for an iceberg except this fragile ship doesn’t have lifeboats
Actually, there are lifeboats. They're called Eagles and Krugerands and Maple Leafs and Soveriegns etc
Only reason I clicked the link.
I did
lifeboats are for first class passengers only
My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... www.jobs-review.com
I bet you have the admin password of this site, right
No probs by me, clickerdy click money on the bank
Anybody else getting tired of the Titanic metaphor?
Tyler must be getting a quid pro quo, no?
Nice head! Not a madman!
HSBC, another well trusted source....for drug dealers anyway.
Recovery? Where was it? Did I miss it while reading a book or taking a walk?
I really liked Needful Things
The teleplay, with Max Von Sydow as 'Leland Gaunt', swooping into town in that big black Mercedes...
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0107665/fullcredits
Yeah, it was pretty good.
I have an original hardcopy, first edition printing of 'The Stand', by Doubleday, @1978. Its strange; the address. 666 Fifth Avenue, NY, NY, 10103. Library of Congress Card Number 77-16928. It was purchased at a used bookstore for $0.50, back in the mid-1990's. 823 pages long (probably too long for the average human attention span of 8 seconds, as stated in recent studies). At that time, Steven King had only written four other books ('Night Shift', The Shining', 'Salem's Lot', and 'Carrie') using his REAL name. His 'novelettes' were penned using an alias, for quite a long time. i think one of them was entitled 'Maximum Overdrive' (funny how his books mostly were made into movies, isn't it?).
In my list of the best 20 books ever published, this one (The Stand) rates within this scale. 'War is a Racket', by Smedley Darlington Butler, is just above it.
I 'need' an IPHONE and I NEED a television and I NEED a 'Hello Kitty' air freshener and I NEED a new pair of Nikes and...
'WE WANT YOUR SOUL':
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH_DkBI9Qsk
Updated version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WTBkj8gFfI
'THEY LIVE' is a highly recommended teleplay.
+1 for the 'We want your soul' reference alone - First heard this after a friend visiting the UK heard it at a club in London and said I had to check it out because I'd probably like it... this was around a decade ago (has it been that long???)
You know what'll help these floudering first world countries full of filthy unemployed whites? Mass immigration of illiterate, diseased, violent, 3rd world people with much lower IQs. That's the solution I think!
C'mon willy you know its not about helping the plebes it is about keeping the right folks in power over us..
The irony about white supremacists is that you drooling inbreds typically represent the least intelligent and the least cultured of all "whites". The very bottom of the barrel.
According to your own dogma, that renders you an inferior subgroup which should be prevented from breeding.
He forgot the option of just letting the recession happen.
How in the hell do you raise interest rates on $18.2 trillion dollars national debt without causing a debt default??
Cut spending? Won't happen
Raise taxes? Won't happen.
Someone please tell me how rates are able to go higher than the 0.25% Fed funds rate we have now ?
Econ 101: Supply and demand equilibrium.
If the central bankers stop printing, even not keep pace, supply swamps demand and prices drop.
They can hold overnight rates at 0 but this is inevitable:
supply > demand = price drop
We still have near a trillion dollar budget deficit. No way the Fed will stop printing.
I must be getting old that hairdo looks like he stuck his head in a toilet and flushed.. I am sure he paid to look that good for the Camera
He looks like he just stuck his finger in a light socket.
Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Cartel; created to launder opium monies in the latter 19th century. The Brits started several wars over this 'golden triangle'. In the case of the FEDRES CONUS, history simply REPEATS.
@Tylers:
The avatar picture regarding this article is better than mine. I'm jealous.
+ 1 for avatar picture comment
Chart 3 is total BS. The federal surplus in 1999-2000 is a myth. The national debt has increased every year since the 1950s. Stealing money from the Social Security "trust fund" and counting it as revenue is nothing more than an accounting gimmick.
cant we just get this shit storm started instead of writing and reading stories about it this is getting as old as Christine
Why do the banksters persist in keeping their ponzi going?
In the early 1920s, the FedRes and their violence-puppets, the DC US government, lost control of their ponzi, and after about 18 months or so (1920 to 1921), the economy recovered. However, starting in 1929 the banksters were woe to allow a reset. The Great Depression then manifest itself; was actually 3 separate collapses over about 12 years.
Now the banksters are coiled around us, the producers, like a python squeezing its victim to death. Unlike the snake, there will be nothing to eat when the victim is dead, as the bankster snakes can not eat their victim, but rely on their victim to sustain it.
I will classify assets into two categories: Active, capital goods, and passive, art, etc. Capital goods assets produce income, passive assets do not. A work of art is a passive asset, while a widget making machine or farmland is a capital good asset.
Income is production via assets employed by labor (Income, not profit, as we are only interested in an asset's production regardless of costs.). Generally, one cannot consume an asset directly--one cannot eat farmland. So, an asset must produce something consumable, if not desirable.
So to consume, to eat, one must have assets in production. If one owns all the assets, but has no means to employ those assets, he is as poor as anyone that has no assets. Therefore, if the banksters allow a reset, the collapse of their ponzis and grift, they will have a myriad of assets, but little to no income, and will suffer like their victims. They will suffer even more so, as they have no skills but grift and subterfuge.
Ditto the banksters' employer, Zion.
They will keep it going as long as they can, no matter the costs to the people. We, the people, should, shall, raise the costs.
Guillotines are a third category of assets--let's call them Restorative Assets.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..
Tyranny's Paradox: Tyranny depends on their victims.
'Tyranny's Paradox: Tyranny depends on their victims.'
This is salient.
Actually, 'Tyranny' first wounds those who are 'lower-class' by preying on the baser desires, and then EATS them while the victims are still alive. 'Tyranny' always requires a BLOOD SACRIFICE or DEATH PROMISE ('mort-guage').
I read your post, and am intruigued. What is your opinion of 'government employees'?
LIBERTY is a GIFT, freely given, by the way. It takes courage to accept this fact of life. The souls of all mankind's individuals are free, but most choose to sell them to the 'highest bidder', in return for temporary safety and comfort. TYRANNY knows this fact; and is quite well-versed in using this weakness.
"government employees?"
Parasites one and all.
Liberty is a demand. tyranny is submission.
in return for temporary safety and comfort
this certainly applies to most Gov employees,. The others, who select serfdom, might just want to be part of the herd ...
if it's long in the tooth it is time for some QE gum surgery
People like King don't really care if or when the depression hits.
It's all an academic exericse to these people.
Others are going to suffer and die.
And King wants recognition for being correct.
It's kind of like betting on what gladiator will die first.
Or which Christian is going to give up his God to be spared a firey end.
It's a game at his level of bullshit.
Postponed? Bullshit! This IS the Second Great Depression, it will be generations long, and we're just getting started. People born today won't see their first non-depression economy until their 40s.
Have you all read his Salem's Lot, a perfect picture of a bloodsucking banker let loose in a small American town? And Needful Things, of course, which depicts delusional America to a T?
So now, he's into doom and gloom predictions?
Dude's left side of his face is twisted and all shrunk. Looks like he had a stroke and they gave him shock treatment. To make matters worse he speaks with an English accent (synonomous with crook). Arrest him. Go on get him outta here. Take him away. Sounds like a bankster.
Fuck all! I Got Mine! And you have Obama and the Commies! Kill yourself and save the planet.
ok. but, doesn't every ZHer intuitively know all this?
Bullish. Moar Warz!
Steve, comb your hair!
your mother.
Has ZH descended into a cooking column and female hygiene bitch fest?
ADD seems to be contageous in these pages... or is it the side effects of the treatment?
And yes, he has just stuck his finger into an electrical outlet. You would too if you had his unfortunate name.
Your gold at the bottom of a lake is rising relative to all sinking ships
got to provide your own lifeboat(s).
My brother used to have a hairstyle like that.
When he was 14.
The report was a good read though.
Horror? I just took 2 hours out of my day to go see Road Warrior 4. What a POS movie. I read good reviews and everyone said it was good - they must be blind...it was the worst movie i have seen in a long time.
Nice rant. We're all fucked. Nothing new in this narrative.
But what is up with that fucking hair? Another old fat bastard trying to look like he's 35.
I have said once, and I will say it again- the central banks will eventually be forced into financing all government spending via the printing press. Japan is already there for all intents and purposes, and the rest will follow. In addition, all of the CBs will start buying equities at any drop in the market.