Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
If fundamentals like profits and sales no longer matter, then all that's left is faith that central banks will never let stock markets fall ever again.
Is this the chart of a healthy stock market? The consensus view is either 1) yes, by definition, because charts don't matter because the central banks will never let markets fall ever again, or 2) the market has been choppy due to a "soft patch" in the economy, which is about to start growing at 3% instead of .3%.
Nice, but this chart says distribution to me: beneath the jolly surface of new highs, the smart money is selling to greater fools who believe the consensus.
This chart is characterized by lengthy chop-fests in which wild gyrations up and down make a mockery of trends.December 2014 to January 2015 was such a chop-fest, and March to May has been another chop-fest in which Bulls have been unable to put together an uptrend of more than a few days.
The script for insiders distributing (selling) shares to greater fools hasn't changed in decades. First, juice the market higher with some big orders, then sell into that buying until the market weakens. Reverse the downtrend with another big order, and then resume selling.
This process is even easier in the current era of high-frequency trading and machines executing most of the trades. A few big buy orders is all that's needed to trigger more buy orders from the trading bots, which are essentially trend-followers, and the smart money can sell into that automated buying.
Despite the occasional new closing high that's notched to assure the greater fools who have been buying, the market has gone nowhere for months. Beneath the surface, many market internals have been weakening for months--for example, MACD and Chaiken Money Flow.
Those selling into strength can always cherry-pick some market internal that supports the Bull case--if you were selling, wouldn't you encourage buyers to take the shares you're dumping off your hands?
Wedges usually break big up or down The current wedge has been formed by the Bulls inability to break out decisively into a new uptrend and the distributors managing to limit any declines lest the herd of greater fools get spooked by the deteriorating fundamentals of stagnating profits, sales, etc. or the painfully obvious blow-off tops forming in global markets.
If fundamentals like profits and sales no longer matter, then all that's left is faith that central banks will never let stock markets fall ever again. Never, ever; that is of course the language of fairy tales.
Yes it is.
Now BTFTop.
Because this time it's different.
...and blah...
Screw the markets, screw money, and no I'm not being funny.
A healthy market??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MLry6Cn_D4
Any questions?
Not sure what you're getting at here but the probability of that formation breaking out with strength to the upside are greater than 80%. Just sayin'.
OFF TOPIC
Anyone have a clue as to why Yahoo won't let me comment anymore?
I tried posting this several times about the royal d bag
Awww....that's sweet...after all, the slaughter of thousands of Muslim women and children is a small price to pay to keep the inbred peed0f1le out of trouble
I don't get it
Just figured it out. Yahoo, thinks it has a link. Derrr
As for the above triangle or sometimes called "pennant" pattern...
It has a downward entry early February.
And the upper or capping trend line is NOT FLAT but slanting upward.
There are now FIVE COMPLETED WAVES in the pattern
So it is in itself a single wave
Which is a well known as a TERMINATING FIFTH WAVE DIAGONAL PATTERN.
So. NO UPSIDE STRENGTH FOR YOU!
FOR YEAR!
I hope you're all in then, it's not often "Mr. Market" gives you an 80% chance of success!!!
NO YOU ARE WRONG. Classic distribution to retail dumbarse money volume pattern
Wrong. The chances of it going up are 100%.
Again:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MLry6Cn_D4
If you are so shit hot on technical analysis, then please provide your prediction of the next 2 months of price action based on the fancy trend lines and oscillations depicted above. Thank you very much in advance.
October 1, 2015 mark it on your calendar........go long on VIX after that.
If your prediction is as good as that rack, I should make a pile!
November 6, 2012.
You'll look back and be laughing.
If the "market" crashes again, what's left of the middle class - the upper class by distribution, nowadays - might realize their lot is the same as that of the niggers, illegals, drug addicts, mongoloids, and schizos. It will happen, but not while the central bankers still have any tools at their disposal to prevent it. And printing trillions and trillions can go a long way.
"printing" is passe/ now that the hEAD sHOP feels that carrying cash is against their best interest.
Digitalizing .gov bonds is more accurate.
Needs a snappy name though.
The market will correct, then we will get QE 4. Buy after a major pullback. Don't go short, you never know when the US LUNATIC CBers will do QE. They may not risk a correction, becuase rising asset prices is all they have working.
Wedges usually break big up or down
qe 4 will be the decider, dow 20k, s/p 2350-2400.
what other option do they have?
The one we have not thought of / considered / seen coming until it happens?
If any of us could talk to ourselves on this day in 1995 or 2005, would ourselves twenty or ten years ago even believe a fraction of the things that have happened since 2008?
ZIRP, NIRP, QE, just to name a few?
Ending diagonal wegdes always break down, not up.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dow-jones-industrial-averageelliott-w...
++100,000,000.002356743 +/- 0.,0045676% (for relativistic effects)
FUCKING BRILLIANT DUDE!
Who the EFF knows? The Chair of the Fed ADMITS that stocks are over valued. The pres of the NY Fed states they WILL do what ever it takes to jeeps markets UP. Take yer choices.
It is the language of software; computer language connected to infinite fiat. There is absolutely no reason for the markets to ever go down unless there is a power outage.
Or depression:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=De27CTC2ogI
So long as their currencies have value, the central banks will keep printing and buying shares.
So long as their currencies have value.
Currencys hold value..........Backed by What?
Bit Coin? Gold/Silver ? OR
Stocks like twitter,google that hope to pay dividends or that get payments from the Government (FED) to get info on everyone to maintain control...............
This blog should get paired with the Frech Revolution Blog. Food control (MONSANTO) fiancial control (JPM/GS) and a large force of steroid EATING paramilitary wearing JACK BOOTED IDIOTS.
When will the truth be told to the population by the Elected?
Oh....Look , she looks like Kim Kardashian.............
It appears that the SPX and DJI will make new highs tomorrow, but NDX and RUT are already topped. This is another fakeout. I'm already short NDX via puts, but plan on shorting RUT(IWM puts) into any new highs made by SPX/DJI. They are most likely going to try and blast RUT above the 50 SMA. Just wait until it runs out of gas (~1250)
I would suggest caution on the shorts. yes, its all a sham.
but you are fighting central banks buying stocks.
the recent treasury bond route was, in my opinion, engineered to drive people into stocks. the great rotation. so far they failed but.....
SPY short interest is back to 32%.
soon it will be time to punish the shorts again, and i have no doubt they will do it. they have the firepower, because they print it.
Monthly MACD for the S&P tells the story, as it did in 2000 and '07/'08.
Yes it does..
A long time ago in a galaxy far away..
Everyone is looking at the wrong indices. The Transports have been the leading indicator since 2009. if we break last week's lows watch out but you should be long here from a risk/reward perspective regardless of what we all think/want the market to do. id speculate that equities think lower yields are good and hopefully make a blow-off top sometime this summer and then good night sweet prince.
Yeah, that chart looks healthy... Something tells me the heart is enlarged.
Systolic vs. Diastolic"...less than one visit to the doctor."
https://youtu.be/rCV0srlnQkE?t=1m16s
there are no buyers, just that fat disgusting cunt yellen and her alliance of banksters bidding this pig of a market higher
Two MAJOR source of buying.
1 - Corp buy backs. Billions and billions.
2 - Stock purchased from funds from selling Pension Obligation Bonds. Billions and Billions. Being used by cities and corps. As an aside, those effers are gonna feel real bad when (not if) the market corrects. As will the taxpayers when they find out their city magically tried to solve their pension problems by issuibg DEBT to buy stocks whose price is "guaranteed" by the sell side fuckers to go up 8 % + a year = FOREVER! POBs are something many do not think about.
That tied in with the proclivity of the Fed and other CBs (some themselves directly buying stocks), HFTs and Algos WILL fuck you over. Be damned careful.
charles hugh smith is so much better when he ignores technicals and market movements.
he is a big picture kind of guy at his best and while he has had a few foibles and mistakes in his views hes pretty spot on about long term views of how things work.
his market timing is and always has been wrong and terrible. as much as i want to do the opposite of what he says, this is just noise nonsense. feeding the bears.
you tell me if the fed will raise rates and ill tell you which direction the market will go
money OUT can always go back IN
BESIDES THE MARKET IS A MANIPULATED FRAUD TO BEGIN WITH DETATCHED FROM REALITY LAS VEGAS ON STEROIDS PROVIDED BY FED
Let's see, it's only been what, almost 7 years that you keep saying the market is ready to tank? It now needs to tank what, about 60% to get back to your first prediction???
Let's see, it's only been what, almost 7 years that you keep saying the market is ready to tank? It now needs to tank what, about 60% to get back to your first prediction???