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Peak Population Growth?
The total number of living humans on Earth is now greater than 7 billion. As Max Roser notes, this large world population size is only a very recent development, as around just 200 years ago the world population was less than 1 billion.
Since the 18th century, Roser continues, the world population has seen a rapid increase; between 1900 and 2000 the increase in world population was three times as great as the increase during the entire previous history of humankind – in just 100 years the world population increased from 1.5 to 6.1 billion. But, Roser concludes, this development is now coming to an end, and we will not experience a similarly rapid increase in population growth over the course of this century...
World history can be divided into three periods of distinct trends in population growth.
The first period (pre-modernity) was a very long age of very slow population growth.
The second period, beginning with the onset of modernity (with rising standards of living and improving health) and lasting until 1962, had an increasing rate of growth.
Now that period is over, and the third part of the story has begun: the population growth rate is falling and will continue to fall, leading to an end of growth before the end of this century.
While The United Nations (UN) sees world population continuing to rise until 2100, some, such as Deutsche's Sanjeev Sanyal, believe world population will peak at 8.7 billion people in 2055 and then decline to 8 billion by 2100... As Sanyal wrote previously, misrepresent underlying demographic dynamics - the future we face is not one of too much population growth, but too little.
According to the United Nations’ Population Division, the world’s human population hit seven billion on October 31. As always happens whenever we approach such a milestone, this one has produced a spike in conferences, seminars, and learned articles, including the usual dire Malthusian predictions. After all, the UN forecasts that world population will rise to 9.3 billion in 2050 and surpass 10 billion by the end of this century.
Such forecasts, however, misrepresent underlying demographic dynamics. The future we face is not one of too much population growth, but too little.
Most countries conducted their national population census last year, and the data suggest that fertility rates are plunging in most of them. Birth rates have been low in developed countries for some time, but now they are falling rapidly in the majority of developing countries. Chinese, Russians, and Brazilians are no longer replacing themselves, while Indians are having far fewer children. Indeed, global fertility will fall to the replacement rate in a little more than a decade. Population may keep growing until mid-century, owing to rising longevity, but, reproductively speaking, our species should no longer be expanding.
What demographers call the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of live births per woman over her lifetime. In the long run, a population is said to be stable if the TFR is at the replacement rate, which is a little above 2.3 for the world as a whole, and somewhat lower, at 2.1, for developed countries, reflecting their lower infant-mortality rates.
The TFR for most developed countries now stands well below replacement levels. The OECD average is at around 1.74, but some countries, including Germany and Japan, produce less than 1.4 children per woman. However, the biggest TFR declines in recent years have been in developing countries. The TFR in China and India was 6.1 and 5.9, respectively, in 1950. It now stands at 1.8 in China, owing to the authorities’ aggressive one-child policy, while rapid urbanization and changing social attitudes have brought down India’s TFR to 2.6.
An additional factor could depress future birth rates in China and India. The Chinese census suggests that there are 118.6 boys being born for every 100 girls. Similarly, India has a gender ratio at birth of around 110 boys for every 100 girls, with large regional variations. Compare this to the natural ratio of 105 boys per 100 girls. The deviation is usually attributed to a cultural preference for boys, which will take an additional toll on both populations, as the future scarcity of women implies that both countries’ effective reproductive capacity is below what is suggested by the unadjusted TFR.
Indeed, after adjusting for the gender imbalance, China’s Effective Fertility Rate (EFR) is around 1.5, and India’s is 2.45. In other words, the Chinese are very far from replacing themselves, and the Indians are only slightly above the replacement rate. The EFR stands at around 2.4 for the world as a whole, barely above the replacement rate. Current trends suggest that the human race will no longer be replacing itself by the early 2020’s. Population growth after this will be mostly caused by people living longer, a factor that will diminish in significance from mid-century.
These shifts have important implications for global labor supply. China is aging very rapidly, and its working-age population will begin to shrink within a few years. Relaxing the one-child policy might have some positive impact in the very long run, but China is already past the tipping point, pushed there by the combined effect of gender imbalance and a very skewed age structure.
The number of women of child-bearing age (15-49 years) in China will drop 8% between 2010 and 2020, another 10% in the 2020’s and, if not corrected, at an even faster pace thereafter. Thus, China will have to withdraw an increasing proportion of its female workforce and deploy it for reproduction and childcare. Even if China can engineer this, it implies an immediate outflow from the workforce, with the benefits lagging by 25 years.
Meanwhile, the labor force has peaked or is close to peaking in most major economies. Germany, Japan, and Russia already have declining workforces. The United States is one of a handful of advanced countries with a growing workforce, owing to its relative openness to immigration. But this may change as the source countries become richer and undergo rapid declines in birth rates. Thus, many developed countries will have to consider how to keep people working productively well into their seventies.
India, the only large economy whose workforce will grow in sufficient scale over the next three decades, may partly balance the declines expected in other major economies. But, with birth rates declining there, too, current trends suggest that its population will probably stabilize at 1.55 billion in the early 2050’s, a full decade ahead of – and 170 million people below – the UN’s forecast.
Given this, it is likely that world population will peak at nine billion in the 2050’s, a half-century sooner than generally anticipated, followed by a sharp decline. One could argue that this is a good thing, in view of the planet’s limited carrying capacity. But, when demographic dynamics turn, the world will have to confront a different set of problems.
* * *
"The world is approaching a major turning point in its demographic trajectory and we think that the shift is likely to be sooner and sharper than mainstream projections suggest,"
Just remember, it took Japan a very long time to realize the decline in fertility was not 'transitory'...
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In the pipe five by five.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones
It will happen and it will happen in our lifetime.
Depopulation isn't just the future. Depopulation is now.
T. M. Morgan-Reilly
Morgan Metagenics
#1 unless this becomes massively negative, still a non issue
#2 this model is assuming china retains a 1-child policy going forward, which is a pretty massive variable to keep static
nonsense
huh? which point?
i'll just jump in here and say probably the one where china's low population growth rate going forward depends on the continuation of the one child policy. it almost certainly does not. brazil, iran, turkey, south africa and many other developing countries are currently below replacement level based on the decisions made by women about their lives. any further economic problems would increase the power of this trend.
who should be most worried about the falling population of the world are the capitalists. until the discovery and utilization of fossil fuel and the invention of labor unions, the thing that most raised the real wage of the european worker was the black death.
but eventually the plague ceased. what might change this present development? nothing obvious, imo.
so you think once they remove it, that the number of 2+ child families will be entirely offset entirely by demand for smaller family sizes or less children in general...
maybe if it was 1.5 child policy (lol) but at literally 1 child policy and the high demand for larger families in china, that's a pretty bold claim
basically almost every 1% family already pays the fines (bribes) for multiple children and soon as it's legal, a lot of 99% families are going to follow
i see your point but i think china is a very very long way away from japanese style population stagnation. it underestimates the high demand by both rich affluent families to give their children siblings and poor familes to still birth more bread winners. for most of china, the notion of multiple chidren would still be seen as a smart investment in their own retirement welfare.
and for affluent families, multiple chidren are seen almost as a luxury or status symbol. almost all these families are having 2nd children recently that they want to raise entirely in their western homes.
the average number of children may eventually settle around 1 as you suggest for the reasons you suggest but probably not for at least 1-2 decades and by then chinese (including ethnic chinese in the west that have at least 1 parent that is a chinese citizen) will probably be closer to 2 billion people than 1 billion. IMO which is professional and anecdotal (and personal) but not statistically or researched :P
but my feeling is that is also why china is not worried about their ghost cities. they know the population demand is there and will continue to grow. ghost cities in china are not even remotely enough to give everyone modern housing. they never built too much for the population. they built too much for the asking price.
give it 5-6 years and most of these cities will have be full because of decreasing prices as the buildings age and also incomes rise.
i mean, most US apartments are probably 10-20 years old :D 5 yrs from now these ghost cities will still be relatively modern by Boston standards, let alone Chicago or Detroit standards :)
Too funny...just finished this article all about US demographics as the clear trigger for '08-'09...and why things are about to get much worse economically.
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-truth-of-great-financial-crisisand.html
US 25-54yr/old annual population growth went negative in...you guessed it... '08
US 25-64yr/old annual population growth will go negative in '16 or '17 and maintain negative numbers til maybe '23 or '24...all the while 65+ annual population growth is responsible for nearly all US population gains.
Why the Fed would choose to print massive debt for a 15yr population slump is not idiotic...it is criminal
What difference does it make? WW3 is about to break out folks...
Population control is on the way... >.>
The great myth of overpopulation is precisely that, a myth.
India's current birth-rate is below replacement.
TPB need to stuff people into Cities (open internment camps)....
See belowl...
https://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2015/03/23/eye-opening-8-minutes-and-19...
As George Carlin said, nature has ways of dealing with any species that becomes too numerous.
Finally some good news.
Less growth better planet
Less people way better planet.
WE are a fucked up bunch!
Better for who? Not people.
Below replacement population growth is spelled D E F L A T I O N.
I've been saying this for years, here on ZH, under a banned avatar. (Francis, I know you're out there!)
Peak oil and pek population go hand in hand. I know oil will head south for the short term. It begs a question- what are the dynamics of the twin drivers? IOW, if peak population and incipient debt overload driven has but a damper on energy consumption, and has brought lower oilo prices, then how does this decrease in energy consumption drive further decreases in economic growth and inevitably, human fertility?
Women hate, hate hate, having kids when they are poor. Until 50 years ago, they had no choice, except to hope they could marry well. Now they can stop that ticket to lifetime poverty (a kid) before it happens, by taking a pill.
In this permanently defationary economy, who wants to have kids? The Chinese? The Indians? The Mexicans? No, no, and no. Africans don't want kids either. As for white Americans and other Europeans, they for damn sure aren't having kids. The only people having kids are the Palestinians, and they do so as a weapon, so it's a unique situation.
No-one wants kids, and this came about by two factors- debt overload and expensive energy. If energy was cheap, we could literally light a fire under the conomy and grow our way out of debt. But we are stuck in a corner, between the rock of debt and the hard place of expensive energy. Something has to give, and what's giving is fertility rates.
Less kids means less demand for energy, means lower oil prices, to a point, but peak oil means energy cannot drop below a cheapness threshold that can drive increased energy consumption, thus the economy, thus more kids. We are beow the energy output threshold for population growth.
" aprostate"
SOunds like you have it all figured out.
I fucking hope you are included in the populaton control.
Going back some 40+ years when I was studying in GB, there was an interesting publication with respect to overpopulation and resources on this case in the form of "space". Rat colonies were established in exceedingly large structures of multiple levels and rooms. At some point overcrowding took place and behavior became rather deranged.... violence, cannibalism, fights over space and food, etc., asexuality and eventually a decline in the nest's population took place all on it's lonesome. The number soon peaked and declined to a "Stable" relationship with "space". The rats quit breeding like rabbits and self-regulated......
Ain't nuffin' like the 4 Horsemen. Which Progressive establishments encourage through artificial support of unproductive useless eaters.
(OMG sounds so NWO-ish, no? Georgia Guidestones..... Yikes!)
The Whole Shebang is All About Demographics.
Go figure.
http://www.vhemt.org/
Are you talking about the Rat Utopias, created by John B. Calhoun?
You should know that after the populations "stabilized", it was due to them killing each other to make space, and the rest were so PTSD'd that they just didn't know how to function anymore.
The habitat that could house 3,000 mice perfectly...only carried 2,200 by the end of the "die" phase, at which point it never recovered.
The population died off completely.
Click the link for the actual study!
Could well be, WOAR. Sounds eerily similar/familiar. Was so long ago, the details escape me, but the results sound the same. The point being was that at some level of crowding if you will, the emotional/spiritual catastrophe becomes too great and the breeding instinct dissipates, the colony dies.
And does seem to be happening in numerous societies.
Why not, eh?
Major Kudos on remembering, finding and the posting. 5*'s. Thank you.
Funny you mentioning rat populations. This article totally ignores niggers and spics, who are still multiplying like roaches. In nature, if food is abundant animals multiply rapidly.
This is exacly what is happening in africa, as socialists hand out food to starving people, and they simply have even more babies. Look to 3rd world cities, including baltimore, camden and fergusun if you want to see how this turns out.
Seems like we are 1.5 steps away from the "Die Phase"
So the rats didn't build skyscrapers, build out mass transit or create a "green revolution" which could handle all their food scarcity issues?
How about building codes and zoning requirements or indoor plumbing?
No?
Hmmm.
Guess those rats aren't so smart after all...
...as for me, I can quite easily think of a billion people this world might be better without.
When you travel in third world countries, Sierra Leone, Honduras, Haiti, most of India (and on and on) you do NOT get the feeling that "this place needs more people".
Shit, I only have to go into SF for a day and I'm convinced we could do with a multiple couple billions less, no problemo. No need to go offshore.
Choosing who needs to go is the easiest part.
Gentlemen, not sure about th etones in the above three comments, first one being really offensive (talk about psycopathy).
Given that, I'd like to inform you that the next great die-off is the white die-off.
Brown and black people have been dying off for 4-500 years now, especially and specifically due to the actions of the great unwashed whites of the world. By the millions and hundreds of millions last century.
Wheels turn, you're up.
If you don't like the thought, the first thing you have to change is the fucked up attitude visible...
Fucker on top sees a billion need to go in Asia eh?
Look around you.....
ORI
No need to help white population reduction- it long ago turned negative. But thanks for your offer.
K
Peak population? thank fucking god
"I'm doing God's work" -Lloyd Blankfein
that's actually a commonly misquoted statement... the correct version is
"I'm doing Blankfein's work" - God
The demographic experts are saying thins for over a decade. The real nwes here is the fact of this being news so late into the process.
The UN should admit that the world has a severe case of bankster infestation and that something needs to be done about it.
"Too little" population growth?
Too little to pay the banksters, perhaps.
yes. too little to pay, or even to be said to pay, the rate of compound interest.
particularly if money remains fiat, but to some extent even if not, someday the rare thing will be the worker, not the capital.
Good. There is nothing negative about declining world population.
Nothing except the fact that all the social welfare entitlement programs require population growth to remain solvent. Even the modest growth we have now would require tax rates of 60-70% to pay for the welfare state. Social welfare programs all came into being during the high population growth period in the early 20th century.
Just a polite way of saying that modern US tax and social policy is one big Ponzi scheme.
Eventually, we will run out of participants...
We don't have a draft anymore. The dollar is backed by nothing. We have free trade agreements with pretty much the world right now. Wall Street is at a record high, bond yields at record lows, real estate is booming...the rich have never had it so good...sorry but "the welfare state" ended in 1973.
The "warfare state" is looking pretty good these days...
The movie Idiocracy was truly prophetic.
Its not so much quantity that counts...on a long enough timeline.
Welcome to Costco. I love you.
The last line was OK, other than that you were talking like a fag.
Hey, a couple of us guys were wonderin', uh, if we'd go family-style on her.
Whoring for up votes by bringing up Idiocracy is a fucking pastime here.
The Marching Morons
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyril_M._Kornbluth
"The Marching Morons" is a look at a far future in which the world's population consists of five billion idiots and a few million geniuses – the precarious minority of the "elite" working desperately to keep things running behind the scenes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Marching_Morons
marching morrons is reality dude, see how many fucktard got smartphones and how many are off grid totally resilient facing the wild...
0.0001 % ?
remove grid for 10 days in N.Y you got a fucking war.
this world is over, done, declining everyday, and certainly end around mid century.
IQ line is crossing the IA line around the end of decade, where the cars will drive without drivers and avoiding crashs, making more idiot alive, pushing the society even deeper in the endless swirls of turds.
If the system weren't a PONZI - and if people didn't expect ever-rising standards of living - we wouldn't NEED ever-rising populations...
I was just about to post the same. The cancerous compounding debt money is an engine of systemic destruction.
Let us be completely straightforward; large families are generally found in contained religeous societies where the the woman has been sub-ordinated by catholicism, islam or whatever to be just a breeding machine; thought the men are normally expendable. In ancient societies this not the case. In future societies it will not be the case again.......simple!
The poorer you are the more children you have; an instinctual reflex.
You're looking at it backward:
The more children you have, the richer you get.
[TANF, Food Stamps, WIC, MediCaid, ObamaCare, SSI/SSP, SSD, Section-8, EIC, Child Care Tax Credit.......]
Thats what what i mean in different ways when your resource are the children, bless us.
We need to kill more brown people.
No, but sterilizing low-IQ'ers would have the same effect.
gimme a single black swimmer name who won a competition...
with elevation of water, hybridizing white with blacks is bad idea, we get worst of both side, and as black are better to jump for basket like chimps than swimming like fish...
i conclude it is suicide to let black multiply, because at 1st huge wave, they all die flooded.
Awesome!
The folks way back when (60's) standing at Speaker's Corner on Sundays in London with ZPG (Zero Population Growth) were right.
Too bad the liberals that think there's too many people don't help us out and Wile E. Coyote off a cliff.
Have no idea why you are getting thumbs up for copying and pasting an article. Obviously that article is horrendously inaccurate unless its talking about the Japanese. That's only five years away and we just added another billion in the LEAST amount of time to date. Nothing has changed, the breeders are still breeding as fast as they can.
8 billion consumers seems like a good even number......
"OMG! By my calculations the progressive, ponzi scheme nirvana of the young paying off the debts of the old is coming to an end!!!" - Sanjeev Sanyal, Deutsche Bank.
Never really thought the whole ideology thingy all the way through didja Sanjeev?
Hey it happens, at some point in the future maybe the marxist central planning department can perfect it ;-)
Well Ted Turner, Bill Gates and the rest of their globalist new world order pal's will be pleased with this atleast.
Soylent Green Corp will not be happy with this prediction.
DPost
If world population is stabilizing, a lot of the scarcity meme goes out the window. So now we are supposed to worry about the failure of the social security type ponzi schemes? It just doesn't have the same bite does it?
There is enough food, clothing, and shelter for everyone on the planet. Fact. There is no scarcity. The oligarchy and its global domination system are doomed unless they take us back to the stone age.
only so long as the human, one up, energy find lasts.
Looks like the infamous Gaussion Curve, I sincerely hope not; the way way down the graph may be easier than the way up.
Another key axiom of government: They only count that which they desire to steal or kill.
That the UN is counting people is not a good thing. Not at all.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission.
Correct, Census is simply cataloguing the livestock.
It only makse sense that the population of a sentient super species would inevitably result in a bell curve.
As people make better and better discoveries and approach the point of immortality (rebirth through machines).... or the "singularity event" as many call it the need for the species (humans) to reproduce will have passed, and humans (whoever reaches the event horizon to the singularity first) will more or less linger about immortal until the ability of the species to reproduce is lost completely over millions of years of evolution (human beings evolve into super being robots who dont even have genitalia)
Eventually we will become floating brains powered by nano-tech living in a virtual reality where we have bodies, mate, reproduce, work to aquire digital wealth . . .. eeer something tells me we might of been down this road already, what were those studies that proved the universe doesn't actually exist again ? <.<
What, therefore, is the Robot synthetic actualisation non-existence curve?
This is another BS article written by an "economist" from the religious viewpoint that "moar is better." Contrary to this stupid article written by an idiot, the world would be a much better place if the human population could stabilize to between about 100 million to 1 billion. However, the real issue unspoken is that less money would be made and less money would flow to idiot "economists" under this healthy scenerio. Perhaps the idiot who wrote this drivel needs to get a real job creating real wealth for a real community.
Gravedigging maybe..
Couldn't agree more. A shrinking workforce is needed because the number of jobs is shrinking however much the population grows. Cue a previous article about water not being available and another article about the chinese building a 3d apartment complex.
Why is it that no-one that advocates a smaller population does the honourable thing and kills their own family?
Because some of us, are worth more than others. First World = $, Third World = 0.
mayhaps we just be brawndo drinkers
You mean semi-sentient? As in industrial/feudal slave.
A sentient species would figure out how it's supposed to live, and then go and live it. Or fight against those who would prevent it.
Singularity event my ass.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/consciousness-does-not-compute-a...
But will we have an itch we can't scratch?
Super species my arse. :-)
Nature doesn't do such a thing. Think about it.
Evolutionary pressure can only advantage the species best suited to the prevailing environment.
Change the environment, and the Achilles Heel will be revealed.
Wanna bet that superstition (imagination) is the Achilles Heel of Homo sapiens?
Kurzweil is a nut and/or a charlatan. See "Logistic function" for details.
Macroscope
The cost of procreation is/has been outstriped by the cost of banking.
Ya gotta love .gov "crowd control"?
once again the next generation gets screwed. not only will the .gov steal their money, to replace the money they stole from us, but they wont have any kids to enslave for their retirement.
viva la french revolution.
They NEED to engineer a more nig specific virus to disappear IQ challenged/non productive/aggressive races. HIV was not specific enough nor is it fast enough as evidenced in africa and ussa.
We have the largest retiring population cycle exiting the stage. The banking cartel cannot payback the obligatory trust fund payout. They will cry tears of not having any fiduciary responsibility. That's when the banking industry becomes depopulated.
This is the real story.
They lie about everything. There are a lot of people on Earth...but 7 billion? really? Show us the data rather than telling us.
If you ask me...the problem is not that there are too many humans...but really too many STUPID humans. Have you been to a Walmart lately? Nuff said!
Nice observation. How do you propose we eliminate these stupid humans? Lowering the cut off for genius IQ doesn't count. Or were you contemplating the gas chamber route?
Miffed;-)
Exactly.
"IQ" isn't everything.
What of "Art"?
"Sport"?
"Politics?"
OK- Zen Master has a point on the last one.
modern art is shit, modern music is shit.
technology make fake artist making money "producing" craps.
for 100 "artist" how many know piano, how many can play mozart...
fuck that.
paint ? picasso is a scam.
why the fuck on earth a paint cost now 179 MILLION DOLLAR ? are you fucking crazy ?
do you know how many people you can make living forever with such money spent wisly in infrastructures ?
i prey everyday a big enough shitstorm trigger the end of our world, when i see politics in my country saying in arab " i'm not child of this country, it fed me, but i feel arab "
this person is female education minister....
and builderberg prize 2012....
nuff said.
I prefer freedom of association rather than culling the herd.
Nice. A lot of herd cullers in teh Zh community, apparently.
Place is crawling with closet racist fanatics who would not mind seeing a billion brown people dead.
Just like that...
ORI
Now slow down there young fellow.... are you telling me that the Caste System is not racist ? That Hindus and Muslims shall soon embrace "live and let live".
And I suggest whitey is pretty good at killing whitey; I give you the wars in Europe. And browny is pretty adept at killing browny; tribalism at its best (worst).
K
The only people complaining about low birth rates are the actuaries who have to figure out how to pay out all the benefits to old folks. The design of those entitlements is for and ever increasing young population to pay into a system where the old folks get the benefits. (see Ponzi and Social Security).
The problem is that we have about 2 billion more people on the planet than it can really support. Sure, we try to support them, but in order to do that we are using GMOs, Fracking, pumping out aquifers, and other things that don't make much long term sense.
The Chinese feed them plastic rice.
It's called "melamine"
Oldwood
Have to correct you. "Melamine" is mandarin for tap water.
K
NoWayJose
"2 billion more people on the planet than it can really support."
Jeez- are there that many bankers now?
The machines need a large human population in order to turn them into CopperTop batteries sufficient to generate the power the machines need in order to survive.
"The human body generates more bioelectricity than a 120-volt battery and over 25,000 BTUs of body heat..." -- Morpheus
makes sense to me
If peak population is like peak oil, which occurs when the consumption of crude oil surpasses the production of crude oil, then peak population must occur when a lot more people die every year than are born.
"Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia."
These facts and figures do not take into account, plague, famine, war or any other number of perils that face human populations. Personally, I thiink WWIII will leave very few standing.
children of men. great movie.
birth rates have fallen already all across the globe
population is still growing only because we have younger people coming to the age (not dieing yet)
in other words the mortality rate is still lower than birthrate simply because we have fewer old people than would have in static conditions of non growing population
we will plateau at about 11 bln people
Average life expectancy in England in the 17th century was only a little over 35 years. The problem is that people live so much longer now. Average life expectancy in the United States is over 78 years old, and many live well past their expiration date. People stop working in late middle age and stll have years to live. My mother is 84 and has been on SS for over 20 years. Both of her parents lived to 95 so we expect to enjoy her company for some years to come. Social Security was not designed to have to support people for such a long span of time. The average life expectancy in 1935 was 61 years. It was designed so that few would live to collect.
Birth control gave women the opportunity to decide the size of their families as well as a release from constraining social mores. Since most children live to grow up these days and considering the horrendous expense of rearing them, most women prefer to lavish the family's resources on one or two children at most. I don't see this changing anytime soon. In fact, I expect to see this trend increase in developing countries. Given a choice most women prefer smaller families. Also, since most women must work outside the home, more children would be an almost unbearable burden. The drop in the birth rate makes perfect sense from a woman's POV.
The average life expectancy includes very high infant mortality rates. Discounting that, the average person in 17th century England lived to about the same age as we do. Maybe a bit less.
css1971
I loved the old saw in statistics "put one hand on a block of ice and the other hand in a pot of boiling water"- to a statistician on average you should feel fine.
Good info. I can only imagine that the death rate for young mothers of child-bearing age would pull down the average also.
K
utopia to think we gonna reach 11 billion ppl when we are not exaclty at 7 billions and we encounter such amount of aliens from mexico to usa, from libya to italia, from syria to iraq, and etc...
you want to take the bet by almost doubling the population ? man, you fucking sick.
borders would get nuked way before such number occur.
intelligent people impoverishing stop making baby to be themself better.
only thiefs to social $$$ and niggers who fuck like bonobos as hobby keep multiplicate like virus.
there will be a huge wave of aliens invasion to west countries, we will be overflowed.
look at lampedusa, italia, from libya... this is insanity.
EU is talking to military attack all boats in the coasts to prevent em to try the sea path...
and you talk about 11 billions ?
HELL OH HELL
There will be no Plateau .. the Rollercoaster only goes up or down .. and fast
Well, it looks like A21 will have half its work done for it.
Population decreasing?
Try telling that to sub-saharan africans whos population has doubled from 400 to 880 million in the last 30 years!
This is the area that needs population control.
i lived a decade there.
the only problem you encounter in africa are nigers themselves, otherwise it is great place. from 1963 to now.. the infrastuctures are fucked coz of lack of maintenance, you have to make em again, apart this problem, it's fine place with rich ressources.
you can guess easyily why whites :
- make NGOs to keep an eye there
- will never release aids vaccin
- did nothing about ebola ( or took it back as fear mongering in eu & usa for a month then woop, and it's gone ! )
- try to make monsento there by gates fundation to eradicate population growth by food way.
That's the scary part there has been this massive population growth in the blacks despite all the above situations and with rampant war.
How much would the population have exploded by if no war, disease and malnutrition?
The population levels of the 1970's are enough to cause mass extinctions in wildlife, so the idea that the population will peak 100 or so years later and then drop down is not very comforting. Resource wise we are running on fumes already, I think mother nature will give these population levels a good tug down well before our reproduction levels kick in.
totally agree, we will never exceed the 8 billion cap, we encounter already soooo much problem with the 7 billion cap... expecting 9,10,11 is uber bullshit bullish prevision.
GMO is working.
Many people are deciding not to have kids in this utopia created by the elites.
Last time I checked sub-saharan Africans were still breeding like crazy - some countries with a TFR up around 6. Bad news for the region's megafauna (200k lions down to 20k in forty years). I don't see the factors contributing to global low birth rates applying here, Urbanization in Africa is just a big village-shantytown - the inhabitants mostly hang about. In 100 years half the planet's population will consist of these folk.
Nature always finds a way to cull the excess.
It has? We've had bubonic plague and a zillion other plagues, famine, natural disasters that dwarfed Katrina, world wars and more. It hasn't stopped our population growth yet.
Its easy to look up the time between adding 1 billion to our global population.
Respectively, going back in time, the # of years it took to add the next billion:
6-7 12 years
5-6 12 years
4-5 13 years
3-4 15 years
So despite EVERYTHING mother nature has thrown at us AND everything that man has done, our population continues to explode. You're a real genius aren't you? You hate facts and clues don't you?
Everything is finite including human population growth.
I'm not a genius but I have read a lot of history and the population drawdowns ARE ALWAYS things nobody sees coming.
We now know the last ice age (the Younger Dryas) took just a whole TEN YEARS(!) TO FULLY FORM not the slow cooling over thousands of years we were taught in school. Imagine the shock to those living at the time.
And now we have ourselves to contend with for a species Darwin award as it were- we have so many things to take us back to the stone age like genetic engineering, NBC weapons and the new complete lifeforms being made which is called Synthetic Biology.
IMO the population will halve at some point this century from some form of mutated disease. The more people and denser cities the easier the spread.
Sure a multi-billion human global population is a new thing.
These stupid forecasts are an even newer thing.
Only divine intervention can free mankind from the clutches of the Zio-Bankers, and it had better happen soon.
Hold your breath.
Africans will always reproduce like crazy
When the West is too weak to do anything about it, China will exterminate any Africans in their way of land and resources. Good riddance!
There is a force on the planet that hates humans.
Wants to see us all die.
Because that force knows that it has a short time left before it is abyssed:
"And I saw an angel coming down out of heaven, having the key to the Abyss and holding in his hand a great chain. He seized the dragon, that ancient serpent, who is the devil, or Satan, and bound him for a thousand years. He threw him into the Abyss, and locked and sealed it over him, to keep him from deceiving the nations anymore until the thousand years were ended." - Revelation 20:1-3
They're called Jews!
"The problem with Socialism is that, eventually, you run out of other people's money." - Margaret Thatcher
"The problem with Socialism is that, eventually, you run out of people." - Me
The problem with Totalitarianism (which includes Socialism) is that you run out of people with ability. "To each according to his needs" is endless. "From each according to his ability" presupposes that those that actually produce value, wish to do the hard work while they watch "useless eaters" engorging themselves on producers efforts.
I had a rethink about a decade ago. I have reduced my footprint, especially my tax and debt footprint. Let the Banks and the Government starve- I am doing my part. What about you? Tip-of-the-hat to Honestann.
ps. Marx was the original welfare bum-living off table scraps from Engel
Oh, I get you, but I'm saying something with a wider scope. I mean Socialism literally makes society vanish; it is ex natura. When The State is made the nanny of us all, it's important to realize that she's had her tubes tied.
Re Marx/Engel. Yes, one of those scraps was Engel's wife. : - )
Total propaganda - First, look at the source of the info, the United Nations. Second, we've been hearing these propaganda stories from "experts" for a couple decades now. That there is no concern about overpopulation because its going to self correct at some point down the road. But they never, EVER give reasons why. They will point to a couple of countries where the population has stabilized and paint the picture that it will be the same everywhere. That's a BOLD FACED LIE.
There is no stopping the Muslims and their breeding rate. Nor the Mormons but the Muslims outnumber the Mormons by a gigantic percentage. Then you add in the dozen other factors that promote breeding and you will begin to put the clues together that these constant stories are nothing but propaganda.
CLUES which nobody pays attention to because (see story above) there is an "expert" telling us whats going to happen.
#1 Advances in medicine has helped stamp out a host of diseases like polio, malaria etc.
#2 Advances in medicine have extended and continue to extend life expectancies.
#3 Advances in medicine result in women having octuplets and 70 year olds birthing children.
#4 This clue unbelievable HUGE. Government subsidizes breeding. US has opened its borders to the breeders from Latin America and they are taking full advantage of it. Same for Europe with the Muslims. The safety net assures that the breeders can do what they do best. In the end, if you breed, it becomes a societal problem, not a personal responsibility.
#5 Any time there is starvation in the world, it is postponed so the breeders can continue to breed.
#6 Certain cultures do not under any circumstances pretend that being financially responsible should be an impediment to breeding. (Muslim, latin americans, irish, mormons (go forth and multiply). This will never change and thanks to the law of exponents, the above article is complete bullshit.
#7 That we went from 6 to 7 billion in an astonishly short time and yet, we're going to stabilize in the near future. UNBELIEVABLE HORSESHIT, but how many people will notice? Nobody, because an expert said (fill in the blank).
The population is NOT going to stabilize, the above articles which you will see be reproduced on a regular basis from now until forever are complete propaganda in order to convince people that unregulated breeding is never a problem. That we need to import the breeders into the US to prevent that from happening.
Its just like the propaganda saying that "freedom isn't free", which is meant to promote the perpetual war with Americans. Americans believe that shit and are prepared to go to war, anytime government media says its time.
So if population growth has peaked, why does the UN still want to kill us all? I guess with all the robotics available to the master families, they just don't need us anymore.
These kinds of predictions remind me of the apparent paradoxes regarding the falling price of petroleum due to demand destruction, and the general overall failure of massive Quantitative Easing being able to stimulate economic growth.
Overshoot in a nutshell ...
The most important factor in the background is that everything was based upon the industrial revolution being able to strip-mine the natural resources of a fresh planet, while simultaneously disregarding the accumulating garbage and pollution. That was possible because there have been developed fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, whereby "money," made out of nothing as debts, could be used to "pay" for strip-mining the planet, while simultaneously governments were also corrupted to deliberately disregard the real costs related to the accumulating garbage and pollution from doing so.
The demographic numbers are extremely different depending upon whether one looks at the overall averages, versus looks at different geographical and cultural groups. Women with education, income, and access to technology, tend to be average not replacement level of reproduction. However, women without those advantages are still reproducing at exponential rates. To over-simplify the situation, women who have less than 2 children are committing suicide, while women that have more than 2 children are declaring war on their neighbours. Overall, the richer women are committing suicide, while the poorer are declaring war on them. That shows up when one looks beyond the overall aggregate average demographics, into the more detailed variances.
IF human beings were to develop a better overall human ecology, then they would have to think in radically different ways about their death control systems. In particular, what we call "birth controls" are actually forms of death controls. Of course, our entire civilization is based on the history of being able to back up lies with violence, so that everything is extremely paradoxical. That the emerging forms of real death controls are being euphemistically discussed as being "birth controls" is typical about how we generally, and quite profoundly, live in a Bizarro Mirror World, or Wonderland Matrix, where everything is proportionately backward and absurd, due the history of successful warfare operating its death controls through the maximum possible deceits, whereby the foundation of financial affairs became enforced frauds.
That includes the ways that the controlled opposition groups stay within that same bullshit frame of reference as was originally developed the biggest bullies' languages and world views. The public spaces in our civilization are almost totally dominated by Huge Lies, which have been backed up by Lots of Violence, for a long, long time. Therefore, our combined money/murder systems, through which the debt controls are backed up by the death controls, are operated by the best available professional liars and immaculate hypocrites.
OUR POLITICAL PARADOXES ARE EXTREMELY INTENSE.
Due to the history of The Art of War, everything that our civilization does, and they ways that people think, are based on the ways that success in war depended upon deceits, and spies were the most important soldiers. Since, IN FACT, our real death control systems had their most significant manifestations through militarism, as the ideology of the murder system, whose social successes were based upon being able to back up deceits with destruction, and that then became the foundation of finances based on enforcing frauds, and those fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems have been "paying" for the planet's natural resources to be strip-mined, in ways which were based on generalized attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance and denial about the realities regarding doing that, the current form of social pyramid civilizationsare rushing as fast as they can towards their exponential growth OVERSHOOTING ...
We are just reaching the turning or tipping points where the problems of diminishing returns from being able to continue strip-mining the planet at an exponential rate are starting to manifest in real ways, that can no longer be as easily ignored, as a problem that may manifest in the future. However, that first and foremost shows up through the effect of that inside of the fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, which then reverberates upon the life styles and decisions of those women who have the abilities to make choices about their reproductive rates.
Tragically, those decisions are NOT being made through an overall greater use of information, enabling higher consciousness, but rather are being made inside of the context of the established social systems based on integrated systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, which makes any kind of better public debates about those issues practically impossible to engage in. It is NOT possible to have rational public discussion about the "birth controls," because those are actually death controls, and that, of course, is a taboo topic, buried under the history of the most socially successful murder systems having been operated through the maximum possible deceits and treacheries, while around the core of organized crime actually doing that were layers of controlled opposition groups, which spouted the same bullshit world view as the biggest bullies originally developed.
It was always inevitable that the human species was going to reach some point which would be "PEAK POPULATION." It was always impossible for there to be endless exponential growth. However, the history of how that actually happened is practically guaranteed to result in spectacularly bad OVERSHOOTING. It continues to be practically impossible to have any kind of public discussion of human ecology that is remotely close to being sane or scientific. Indeed, as demonstrated by the articles and comments on Zero Hedge, even the more intelligent, educated, and informed people still tend to be drowning in their bullshit-based world view, and to be going down for the second or third time ... While it is theoretically possible that human beings could develop better integrated human, industrial and natural ecologies, that can not be done without the core components of better death controls. However, since the existing systems are based on a long history of those being done with the most social successfulness through the maximum possible deceits about themselves, there are no politically possible ways to begin to discuss those problems more intelligibly in the public spaces.
Most of the content on Zero Hedge is devoted to discussions of the ways that the political economy is based on systems of enforced frauds, which were able to be built on top of the historical foundation of social pyramid systems which were based upon backing up deceits with destruction. Thus, the world's economy is based on enforced frauds, that have been strip-mining the planet's natural resources in grievously unsustainable ways, which overall amounted to our civilization manifesting runaway criminal insanities. Therefore, we have been rushing as fast as possible towards our exponential growth OVERSHOOTING.
Although tiny groups of intellectuals have been warning about that for a long time, of course, their warnings were always deliberately ignored, and continue to mostly be deliberately ignored. However, we are NOW running into the problem of diminishing returns regarding the ability to continue to grow the economy, as based on being able to continue to strip-mine the planet, while simultaneously ignoring the resulting exponential growth of garbage and pollution problems. Yet, overall, it continues to be practically impossible to have any more rational public debates about those problems. The core groups of organized crime, namely the bankster dominated governments, are surrounded by controlled opposition groups, both of which spout the same basic bullshit social stories. Therefore, the deeper nature of the problems tend to be deliberately ignored, while the "solutions" promoted regarding the more superficial views of what the problems are tend to be bogus, because those kinds of "solutions" are still based on similar sorts of bullshit, in the form of false fundamental dichotomies, and the related impossible ideals.
By the time the emerging problems of diminishing returns from being able to strip-mine the planet show up more significantly, everything will have already grossly OVERSHOT. Therefore, since nothing will be done to stop that, as nothing was done to prevent that previously, the only remaining options will be severe social storms blowing through, crazy collapses into chaos, and psychotic breakdowns of the established systems, due to the ROOT CONTRADICTION of social pyramid systems, that being able to enforce frauds within society never stops those frauds from still being false, and therefore, the more social successfulness is based on being able to back up lies with violence, the more criminally insane that civilization overall behaves.
Of course, in the longer term, the same theoretical issues, related to the chronic political problems inherent in the nature of life continue to be there, and continue to abstractly have the same sets of theoretical solutions. Indeed, that the current cultural systems of artificial selection developed to become based on the maximum possible deceits and frauds, and to flow along their own paths of least morality, makes sense within the context of understanding human beings and civilizations as general energy systems. However, I REPEAT, it is practically impossible to exaggerate the degree to which the established artificial selection systems have built an almost totally encompassing Bizarro Mirror World, or Wonderland Matrix, where everything that almost everyone thinks is as backward and absurd as it can possibly be! One of the ways that manifests are that of the public discussions of "birth controls" are bullshit-based, since everything we currently refer to as "birth controls" are actually forms of death controls.
The demographic transitions that are occurring, such as outlined in the article above, tend to continue to be deliberately misunderstood in the maximum possible backward and absurd ways. Moreover, it is quite probable that the majority of the people who bother to read this, and/or post comments on Zero Hedge, will also not appreciate the degree to which they are still believing in bullshit, which they continue to take for granted ... Ideally, we should go through a series of intellectual revolutions, in order to change political science so that it becomes more consistent with the profound paradigm shifts which have already occurred in physical science. However, doing that is in a head-on collision with the established systems being run by the best available professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, who have been socially successful by promoting their bullshit world views, which deny and/or deliberately ignore the most important facts, in ways which make any more rational and saner public debates politically impossible.
PEAK POPULATION will manifest as OVERSHOOTING. After we go through the turning points, where we tip over into significantly diminishing returns from being able to continue to strip-mine the planet's natural resources (using "money" made out of nothing as debts to have "paid" for doing that), we will have already gone TOO FAR ... One of the phrases that have been developed to describe how that would most probably happen is "Seneca Cliff." I.e., the bust happens far faster than the boom. Furthermore, it is practically guaranteed that the vast majority of people will continue to deliberately misunderstand that, because they will not be able and willing to go through enough of the severe cognitive dissonance that they would have to endure to comprehend the degree to which everything that they had previously thought was based on bullshit.
Everyday, the world is being strip-mined in more unsustainable ways ... while practically nothing is being done to prevent or prepare for that, EXCEPT that the ruling classes are starting more genocidal wars, and getting ready to impose democidal martial law, which are the only politically practical solutions to the real problems, within the real systems of social pyramid systems based upon backing up lies with violence ... Any other solutions to the problems would take enough people facing enough of the more radical truths about themselves. While that is theoretically possible, it continues to be politically impossible at the present time. For example, it would not be possible to develop any better integrated human, industrial and natural ecologies, without monetary systems which were consistent with the laws of nature in general, and the principles of the conservation of energy and matter in particular. However, the actually existing systems are based upon enforcing frauds, which are discussed in totally bullshit-based ways, because the death controls that actually back up the debt controls are deliberately divorced from each other as much as possible.
Money is measurement backed by murder. The monetary and taxation systems are the symbolic accounting systems that relate to access to natural resources. The diffuse impacts upon people are what motivate them to reproduce less. However, none of that is regarded rationally. Rather, all of that is filtered through systems of artificial selection in which deceits and frauds are almost totally triumphant.
From a sublime point of view, the demographic transitions could overall be good things. However, the actual ways those are happening are quite screwed up, and getting worse, faster, as is obvious to anyone who examines more of the details regarding those demographic transitions. The current manifestations of the demographic transitions continue to be too little, too late, and to be too trivial to matter much. Theoretically, it would be possible to change the language that we use, and to perceive our problems differently, so that we would be able to recognize that what we were calling "birth controls" were actually death controls, and then we could begin to negotiate better death control systems, which continues to be the ONLY way that better resolutions of our real problems would be possible.
Dude, the world's population will level off due to death by boredom if we read posts as long as that one!
Population control is something that most governments are doing AS WE SPEAK with consumer products. Sadly, it's just not fast enough. We need to get down to a decent 1 or 2 billion at most.
War may be a somewhat stop gap solution, but that meat grinder is way too slow and the output barely makes a dent in our current global population woes. Besides, nukes mess up property values.
The solution is easy. Anyone under an IQ of 50 OR fails a sociopath test OR depends on a spellchecker OR thinks pop music is good OR thinks Sarah Palin is hot is immediately turned into crackers. Yes, tasty and nutritious crackers to feed the growing elderly population and its caretakers.
Problem is we would concurrently wipe out all forms of global government with this plan. Who would replace them and make the HUGE profit from the cracker sales?
"Soylent green is made out of CONGRESS! They are making our food out of POLITICIANS! Next thing they will be breeding politicians like cattle for food"
Charlton Heston