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Homebuilder Sentiment Slides, Misses For 5th Of Last 6 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Since November, HAHB homebuilder sentiment has only beaten expectations once. May printed 54 (notably short of the 57 expectation). Despite all the previous hope for future sales, buyer traffic has fallen as The Midwest saw the biggest drop in sentiment (what about the post-weather bounce?) and The West rising modestly.

The story was well-known: pessimism now offset by optimism later: present single family sales falls to 59 vs 61 last month, while future single family sales rise to 64 vs 63 last month, even as prospective buyers traffic falls to 39 vs 40 last month.

 

As for the report punchline:

Consumers are exhibiting caution, and want to be on more stable financial footing before purchasing a home,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

Which may suggest that the S&P at all time highs hasn't quite trickled down to consumers just yet. Oh well, a few more years of record S&P highs should surely seal the deal.

 

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Mon, 05/18/2015 - 10:08 | 6105391 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

Whatever happened to homes as opposed to houses?

- Burton Cummings

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 10:14 | 6105408 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

that punchline is freaking hilarious

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 10:16 | 6105420 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Going to be waiting a long time with no wage growth.

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 11:22 | 6105600 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Here's hoping the real estate manipulators get bent over......

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 10:16 | 6105421 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Lot prices at the biggest lake in the area (1 to 3 acres) just took an 80% hair cut.

Those guys are confident..., that they are desperate for cash flow.

 

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 11:07 | 6105569 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Went out to do a house inspection for my realtor client yesterday.

The local town slumlord just liquidated all his properties over the weekend.

May ,or may not ,be relevant.

There are large parcels of land for sale everywhere down here.Been on the markeT upto 18 months.

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 11:59 | 6105741 gimme soma dat
gimme soma dat's picture

This bubble is bursting.  2015 for me has gone from "so busy I want to scream" to crickets chirping all of a sudden. 

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 12:21 | 6105838 markitect
markitect's picture

What do you do?  Archi-Engineering over here and 2015 has been an absolute disaster thus far.  Cold stop in new business over the winter and no spring recovery.  Theres going to be a lot of out of work tradesmen next fall and winter since theres nothing on the boards today.  

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 12:21 | 6105839 markitect
markitect's picture

What do you do?  Archi-Engineering over here and 2015 has been an absolute disaster thus far.  Cold stop in new business over the winter and no spring recovery.  Theres going to be a lot of out of work tradesmen next fall and winter since theres nothing on the boards today.  

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 12:27 | 6105870 Zpigs
Zpigs's picture

I'm looking to buy next winter. What market should I expect? I'd guess it'll either be better, worse, or the same.

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 10:22 | 6105443 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

...want to be on more stable financial footing... 

Prospective purchaser: "Hmm, what happen if today's crazy low rates begin to rise, and like double from 3% to 6%...will wages double to maintain affordability?...will home value double?...or will I face huge negative equity trap?...

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 11:03 | 6105558 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Housing bubble #2. Created again by the PhDs at the Federal Reserve.

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 11:10 | 6105577 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Bad news.  Totally BULLISH.

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 11:13 | 6105580 j0nx
j0nx's picture

DC area is booming, only because it knows I want to buy...

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 12:30 | 6105879 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Agreed. Prices up. Selling quickly. Zillow 3304 Potterton drive. 22044 to see a nice flip happening. $200k+ gain in six months

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 11:48 | 6105678 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

I see they are still building McMansions.  I can remember way back in the 70s when they were building 1,200 square foot homes with 1-car garages, and selling them like hotcakes.  VA and FHA.  Perhaps someone will start building those small houses again.

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 12:00 | 6105748 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Government employees are too good and too wealthy for houses such as that...

Mon, 05/18/2015 - 19:06 | 6107599 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

Some, yes.  But maybe not school bus drivers.   :-)

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