Peak Picasso - Did The Art Market Just Flash A "Sell" Signal For Stocks

Tyler Durden's picture

"Like any trend in an unhinged market, it's next to impossible to predict when the confidence will peak. Based on previous peaks, it could (should) be any time," warns Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research.

As Bloomberg reports, Goepfert's recent note, analyzing the relationship between record art sales and the stock market, strongly suggests, "previous bouts of expensive art sales have indicated over-confident conditions in the stock market as well."

There is broad overlap between the markets, now more than ever. Wealth concentration is near an all-time high, and with stocks doing so well, it has helped to fuel massive confidence in other "greater fool" markets like art.


...The market is relatively isolated and a plateau in art prices wouldn't have much affect on broader assets, though it would likely be coincident with a plateau in stock and bond markets.

With the art market hitting a new milestone last week, perhaps it is time to consider reducing exposure to the exuberance.

Read more at Sundial Capital Research

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Rektors's picture

Number 1 - Booya!

I got nuthin...  :(

Butterflying's picture
Butterflying (not verified) Rektors May 18, 2015 9:02 PM

My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do...

CH1's picture

And the painting is still ugly.

0b1knob's picture

On Zero Hedge, every single random evenet in the news somehow means the market is about to crash.

Singing the same sone since 2009.   Keep it up eventually you will be right.

smlbizman's picture

alright heres a thought.......i have noticed with rich people, its not the quality .." its the i paid more than u for the same thing" bullshit...i could be wrong

Mr Pink's picture's probably different this time

q99x2's picture

BTFD. Its software stupid.

bigkahuna's picture

no - it flashed a BTFATH signal.

buzzsaw99's picture

i remember a flurry of articles like this back in 2012 when the scream sold for $120M. Both are hideous and hard to look at imo. What a colossal waste. Just goes to show money doesn't buy good taste.

cherry picker's picture

I have yet to see a "work of art" worth that kind of coin.  There is nothing a person can make that can compare with what nature offers.

Crocodile's picture

The one who created nature must be one incredible artist!!

BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Nature is so utterly brutal (allow me to refer you to the food chain) that no conscious entity could have produced it. Nature is mechanistic in it's cold disregard for the weak and the endless suffering. If you can't run fast enough, dead, if you can't fight fiercely enough, dead, if you can't outwit your opponent with cunning, dead. Not only dead, but eaten alive, slowly in many cases. Yes, I agree rainbows are pretty but nor shall any entiity evolve to detest it's surroundings. We find nature beautiful because we are hardwired to do so but having said that there will be many human beings that couldn't give a flying fuck about nature.

That's precisely why we won;t be around for terribly much longer.

Lazarus Taxon's picture
Lazarus Taxon (not verified) cherry picker May 18, 2015 9:54 PM

I have a nice painting on a wall next to large windows overlooking beautiful natural scenery. 

Not one person has noticed the picture the first few times they have walked into the room.

The Creator paints an awesome new picture every evening.

Divine Wind's picture




I used to live on the beach in North Carolina.

The sunrise each and every morning was absolutely spectacular.

BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

{Clears throat} Um, isn't that the sunrise and sunset you are talking about. Pretty sure we figured out why they occur a few hundred years ago. 

BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Hey, to those two down arrows, don't shoot the messenger, I'm just trying to bring your level of education to that of the 21st century and not that of a medievel and superstitious high priest.

AGAU's picture

Human development/education etc is a non linear parameter, I believe it is cyclical or gaussian. If you were to visit the Egyptian Museum in Cairo you may come away with the impression that previous civilisations were an order of magnitude 'better' than us.

buzzsaw99's picture

my young niece painted something very similar to "starry night". i liked it better than the original van gogh.

Lazarus Taxon's picture
Lazarus Taxon (not verified) May 18, 2015 9:50 PM

You will know that the "art market" is no longer phony when a WB7 original goes for $50 million.

Crocodile's picture

The increase of Art is just a reflection of past, current and future inflationary trends; the markets keep going up, albeit more slowly and zig-zag-like, till it falls over for the New World Economic System (OWES).  When?  Sometime in the future, maybe tomorrow or the next day or a decade.

chinoslims's picture

who really knows where the peak of the art prices are?  otherwise, the blue graph is just the picture of the new york skyline

Joebloinvestor's picture

The ultimate price will be when they execute someone for stealing one.

disabledvet's picture

That would be Segundo de La Play el Sharnhorst von Carne con Quistador Jeffe Ocho Blender Miguel Pablo Picasso to you all!


And never forget that either!


And you better learn to say it backwards or else that fifty million will NOT be accepted!


We will however grant you a lifetime of supply of Guernica Postcards because the French never figured that one out....and neither have the Saudi Royal Family who the French are inexplicably wooing right now.

Consuelo's picture

It's all going to hell in September.   Or as Marty likes to say: 2015.75   Or is that .78?   Perhaps I'd better consult Mr. Owl...    Anyway, the 'meme' gets going about September/Fall of 2015, and before you know it, everyone is preaching it like it was their own thought or something...    Shades of 2012 or Y2k?   My friend said when the computers go down in 2000 that people were gonna be taking a shit in their front yards - presumably because the toilets/sanitation infrastructure would no longer function, or that people would simply go non-linear and prefer to freak out (and crap) in the front yard for everyone to see.   I asked why they couldn't just as well crap in the backyard, but...

Miss Expectations's picture

Action painting, sometimes called "gestural abstraction", is a style of painting in which paint is spontaneously dribbled, splashed or smeared onto the canvas, rather than being carefully applied. The resulting work often emphasizes the physical act of painting itself as an essential aspect of the finished work or concern of its artist.

To Greenberg, it was the physicality of the paintings' clotted and oil-caked surfaces that was the key to understanding them.

It's obvious that they can sell you anything...up to and including shit in a can.  (See every single presidential hopeful.)

sandlapper's picture

Like real estate, the purchasers of artwork can avoid a capital gains tax by using a 1031 exchange.  So in that sense, this could be a good barometer for a top; but at a minimum it's a sign of frothiness with assets such as real estate, equities, and of course ugly art work.