This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Why Did The IMF Leak The Greek Default Details?
Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
Whenever secret or confidential information or documents are leaked to the press, the first question should always be who leaked it and why. That’s often more important than the contents of what has been leaked. And since there’s been a lot of hullabaloo about a leaked document the past two days, here’s a closer look. Spoiler alert: the document(s) don’t reveal much of anything new, despite the hullabaloo.
On Saturday, Paul Mason at Channel 4 in Britain posted an IMF document(s) that according to him says, among other things, that the IMF expects a June 5 Grexit – in one form or another – if there is no agreement before that date between Athens and its creditors, ‘the institutions’ (of which the IMF itself is one).
The leaking is simply what it is as long as we don’t know the how and why. But the question will remain why somebody takes the risk to leak something only a small and select group of people are privy to. Is it leaked because it’s politically important, does Paul Mason pay a lot of money for leaks? Or is it perhaps an intentional leak, in this case ordered by IMF higher-ups? And if so, for what reason? A veiled threat?
Fact is that when you look through the documents Mason published, you notice that he adds his own interpretation to them. Mason, to whom documents seem to be leaked on a regular basis – he wrote about 2 more leaked documents 3 months ago – for instance suggests quite strongly in his write up at Channel 4 that June 5th is the date for a possible default.
However, the documents don’t mention that date. They only talk about June, not June 5. Mason writes about IMF ‘staff’: “They point to the €1.5 billion due to the IMF in June as the first vulnerable payment.”
The €1.5 billion is not one payment, though. The first June payment, at least according to a Bloomberg overview , which is indeed scheduled for June 5, is ‘only’ €310 million. There are then subsequent payments to the IMF scheduled on June 12 (€348 million), June 16 (€581 million), and June 19 (another €348 million). These are rough numbers, there are slightly different ones doing the rounds; still, they’ll do.
But June 5 is by no means carved in stone as a default date (€310 million might be feasible for Athens), though Mason does make it seem like that. Every single day counts now in the negotiations. And a €310 million payment on June 5 would buy Greece at least another week. Which may prove crucial. For both sides of the negotiating table. Greece might even miss one or two payments; the consequences of such a move would be mainly a political decision, meaning there’s some room to move.
We noticed, by the way, another example of ‘Masonic’ interpretation in the video that accompanies the article. In it, Mason claims (at about 1:10) that “..the writer of this document thinks Greek pensions are too generous even now.” While it’s possible that he talked to the writer, or received additional information that he doesn’t mention, fact is that the document doesn’t corroborate his statement in the video. There’s no mention of this claim. Maybe it’s Paul Mason’s own opinion?! Take a listen:
The main sticking points with the ‘institutions’ now seem to be ‘labor reform’ (i.e. down with the unions -how IMF can you get?-) and pensions. Syriza has once again said this morning that it refuses to cave in on either. And there’s also the case of the 4000 or so re-hired cleaning ladies and school guards. The well-paid negotiators from Brussels and Washington want them out of their poorly paid jobs again. Not going to happen on Tsipras’ watch.
Yanis Varoufakis has already made clear what Syriza thinks should be done with the debt it owes to Europe: it should be swapped for paper with a repayment schedule that stretches way into the future. Looking at (re)payment schedules, it becomes clear this is not just a hollow idea. If Europe would allow for such a swap, Greece’s debt picture would change radically overnight. It would take away a large part of the burden this year:
And when this year is over, everything looks a lot sunnier:
The biggest speedbump in Greece’s repayment schedule is summer 2015. Take that away and things look completely different. All the institutions need to do is to provide Greece with some leeway. It’s very possible to do so. If the EC, ECB and IMF decide not to allow for that leeway, there can -again- be only one conclusion, as I said before: Greece Is Now Just A Political Issue.
The ‘big kahuna’ issue for Syriza has been, ever since it won the elections in late January, that its voters want something seemingly impossible: an end to austerity combined with continued membership of the eurozone. ‘The institutions’ won’t let Greece have both. Which has a lot to do with the fact that polls show continued support for euro membership in Greece; it’s one big hammer that Tsipras can be banged over the head with, day after day.
‘The institutions’, and indeed the international media, expect Greece to cave in to their demands for more austerity at the ‘final moment’, because the alternative would not only be horrific – at least presumably -, it would go against the wishes of the Greek people. What not a lot of people seem to understand is that Syriza can’t give in, because it would mean the end of Syriza.
However, if the institutions force a Greece default, that would bring a potential disintegration of the eurozone much closer than it is today. And whoever says they’re confident it can be contained are delusional liars. The risks for all three, EC, ECB and IMF, would far outstrip the few billion euros on which they may receive repayment a few years later. And they should not want these risks. Not if they have functioning neurons left.
But the biggest threat to the negotiations may not come from the institutions after all. It may well come from inside Syriza. As the Greek Analyst site reported this morning:
Call For “Rupture Now” By The Political Secretariat & Central Committee Of Syriza
Prominent members of the Central Committee and the Political Secretariat of Syriza are preparing an event for tomorrow, Tuesday May 19. Quoting from the event description, as well as the title of the invitation-pamphlet, the message of the event seems quite clear: “the only way out [of the impasse] is the choice of rupture with the lenders.” :
The Moment of Truth For Syriza: “Rupture now with the lenders.”
The moment of truth has arrived. The lenders are pressuring the government to sign a Memorandum agreement of neoliberal strategy (privatizations, demolition of the insurance-pension system and of the labour rights, ENFIA, VAT tax, etc.)
It turns out that the agreement of the 20th of February facilitated, objectively, this attack and “creative ambiguity” favored the powerful. The assumption that a radical program of anti-austerity can be build with the tolerance of the neoliberal steering wheels of the Eurozone proved wrong. Now, we are moving to the critical hour of decisions for the government, the party of SYRIZA, and the social majority.
We need to choose between the signing of the looming austerity agreement and the rupture with the lenders. SYRIZA cannot be turned into a party of austerity; neither can the government implement the Memorandum. This is the reason why, both domestically and abroad, proposals for the internal “cleansing” of SYRIZA and governmental solutions for “national unity” are put on the table.
For all those reasons, the only way out is the choice of rupture with the lenders. With a suspension of repayments [of the debt], measures that restrict the “freedom” of capital flight, governmental control over the banks, taxation of capital and of the rich for the financing of pro-people measures, support of this policy with any and all possible means, and with the possible break from the EMU.
For all of the above, we invite you to discuss in the open event of Rproject on Tuesday 19/5 in 7:00pm at ESIEA. Today, the future of workers, unemployed, pensioners, young people is judged. And at the same time, the future of the Radical Left in Greece, but also internationally.
Anatole Kaletsky thinks Syriza will blink. I saw that a few days ago with all of its assumptions and I thought: whatever. I don’t even think Kaletsky knows what Syriza is. There are too many opinions and too many assumptions out there that see the negotiations as just that: negotiations (that will end badly for Tsipras and Varoufakis). But Syriza is not just another thirteen in a dozen political party. It comes with principles that it will not and cannot sell to the highest bidder. That, more than anything else, makes this a political issue.
»
- 47398 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Moment of truth? Moment of truthiness, if you ask me. This can will be kicked.
"This can will be kicked."
Yes, this is my opinion as well. The fools/Europhiles (Martin Schulz, JC Juncker, Frans Timmermans & Co) in Brussels will push ahead regardless of the consequence, backed up by their respective Europhile national governments and by "whatever-it-takes" Mario, and I can not imagine that these egomaniacs would allow the loss of face by a Grexit.
Too much "wolf-crying" here, as these 'leaks' are IMHO merely there to; 1) intimidate Greece into accepting yet another "bail-out/in" and/or 2) force additional concessions from Germany/Netherlands/Finland/Luxembourg/Austria and 3) show the sheeple European tax payers (i.e. the bail in/out financiers) that they are 'tough on Greece.'
What if they only wanted the real day to be confused?
Knowing that there will be fortunes made and lost on this event, what if these greedy pricks just wanted to 'leak' a date to get most traders to lower their guard? If you 'leak' the wrong day, and it's an early one, wait for the day to come and go and everyone pulls their trade or sells positions. THEN take on the sold positions/trades on the cheap and wait for the real thing.
If I were a power-hungry, power-desperate, lying, destroying, human-hating little perverted psycho-bunny, this is how I would ensure that I can extract the most wealth possible from the system.
Really hoping I'm wrong here..
Or perhaps this is where Greece will get its next dose of funding.
Massive naked EUR/USD short, and then default.
what greece should do is, is it should simply borrow *now* the money that it is obligated to pay in june
then repay that newly borrowed money later
like 30 years later. or 50.
this seems so obvious that you have to wonder why nobody has thought of it before.
the lender could, if it chooses, impose some sort of additional cost for lending that money
This is exactly how the Red Shield family has been making its money since 1815. Lying its ass off about world events and then profiting from the fools that believed them.
The leaders of Syrizia went to Brussels to tell them that Greece was leaving the Euro and came back with roadmaps and delaying tactics. Were they bribed? Were the bought? Were they drugged up, given children to abuse, filmed and blackmailed?
Who knows? I certainly don't. But whatever happened it wasn't good for the people of Greece, and it will be financially successful for the bankers.
All I know is that something big is going down this year. And I am not talking about Chris Christie going down on Obama. Even though that will happen too.
There will be NO GREXIT ever.
How many times do I have to repeat this?
Yes,i agree with your assesment. You never allow one of your slaves to leave your service, as it will set a bad example for the rest. Greece will be a member of the Eurozone until either Greece or the Euro exists no more.
more than thios, greece is better shape now as slave in eurozone than alone outside with sand and olive as money.
they know it.
it's all bullshit.
the leaks is made to shake the minds, flipper tilt move to put the steel ball on path, again.
I agree - it is against the concept of "ever closer union" (as well as all the Treaties - that is without leaving the EU as well).
Not so much can-kicking required as face-saving. Now we see Junker is involved and Merkel is sidelined.
The best Germany can get is delayed repayment - the money won't actually be lost, it just won't be repaid anytime soon. Ditto Target2. The Project must go on.
Of course, the other PIIGS may now want their turn - but that will be for another day.
J
Everything is about the UNION, everything is about power. The EU has been at acquiring power the old fashion way...by stealing it. They are taking away the sovereignty of all member countries in order to save them....from an alliance designed to do exactly that...all without any democratic initiative. They will create an economic crisis that will have people begging to come under their "shelter"...shelter in place...imprisoned in their own countries. Greece is their poster child, showing the path to Utopia. Greece will submit based on the promise of becoming a protectorate....money for nothing, just shut the fuck up.
As far as leaking is concerned, we should all recognize that information is money, it is power. Real markets, real commerce is dead. Now we simply pay for information to gain financial advantage, to gain political advantage.
The "information age". So much more to it that it would seem. It is no surprise that those companies showing such stock market promise are those who are collecting information, while also reinforcing consensus of the masses. All serving to domesticate us, for as we know domestic sheep are much easier to handle than those from the wild.
It seems another day is actually still today . . .
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11616002/Europe-faces-secon...
Never mind, the German elections aren't for a while
J
This is starting to resemble "The Perils of Paline." It's time for Syriza to fish or cut bait. Either default, declare a moratorium on all principle and interest payments, and live within your means. Or bow down and swear fealty to the establishment.
But for God's sake, have the guts to make a decision and quit acting like a sniveling spoiled brat that can't face the real world.
when dealing with Eurocrats, there is never any moment of truth as for them time has no value since they are a bunch of socialist bureaucrats. There is only one thing for sure, they will take a political decision to insure their continued existence and therefore a Grexit is out of the question.... this is a false crisis as high debt of an EU member does not matter when ECB is monetizing the EU at a rate of 65 Billion Euro per month...
So Greece should just default? Gees, no shit huh? Maybe call 2010 and tell them?
If Syriza had any intention to break with the EU and the "institutions" they would have done so already.
OR, putin told em to stay to mess with imf just as decoy for the eurozone, chess time move to gain strengh.
That possibility has crossed my mind.
The idiocy of this situation cannot be overstressed. One the one side is history showing the problem of too much debt has occurred at least 625 times before. History shows that out of the 625 times the problem has been fixed 625 times by writing off the debt. Austerity has never worked and money printing has never worked. On the other side we have a completely corrupt banking system controlled by deranged Rothschild banksters, intent on enslaving humanity and determined not to forgive any debt at all, despite the fact that the money they lend is creaated out of thin air and so is legally voidable.....and we the public are told the Rothschild position is the morally correct one.
"completely corrupt banking system controlled by deranged Rothschild banksters, intent on enslaving humanity and determined not to forgive any debt at all" we keep hearing this same old rhetoric , where does it come from exactly ? And how do we know this is the case ? Wasn't it Nixon who destroyed the gold standard - against the will of the IMF ? It is massive over leverage that has caused this entire shitstorm with multiple banks creating loans out of thin air for the last 30 years and out of control government spending on the Free Shit Army and pointless wars.
There is always someone in charge. There is no such thing as group decisionmaking.
To start with look at Vitali Glattfelder and Battiston (2011) who identified a single private bank led entity that controls 96.2% of all the transnational corporations that exist. This provides the identity of the corporate entity that is controlling the markets and western politicians. It is headed by Barclays bank and so the path as to who actually drives it points strongly at the Rothschilds. Debunk this piece of research and I will feed you the next one.
>It comes with principles that it will not and cannot sell to the highest bidder.< This made me LOL.
no Grexit ... although DISEELBLOOM is pushing hard ... why? who knows ... a lot of people have changed around the negotiating table the last 4-5 years of this drama ... guess who has been there from the start?
DISSELBLOOM ... if i had to bet, i would say he get his orders somewhere up the chain ...
So Greeks want to have their Euro and Eat it too huh? .. Phuck them! They will bring the whole Europe down to their level .. and I am sure the EU-crats will allow them to do it.
How else are the EU-crats to claim the power that they feel is so imperative to their survival. As in America, their power can ONLY grow through crisis, and if they must create this disaster to also create the opportunity for a "Greater EU", then so be it.
I am not so sure like many of you here that the EU wants to keep Greece at any price. On the contrary, I think they are ready to let them go. Already in February former french President Giscard d'Estaing said that it's time for Greece to leave the common currency. He is no petty player. A "EU-wiseman" deeply engaged in the European construction and constitution.
So beware...
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/euro-finance/giscard-greece-should-leav...
The battle is independence versus dependence. Individual sovereignty is being balanced against the "protection"of a central bank and government. We have seen a public war against anyone who would appear as nationalist and this is the reason. No one will sacrifice for country. Now it is all about ME, my future, my career, my political power. When we have no country, no community, no values beyond personal survival, WE WILL FAIL.
This is the thing that makes people fearful of Islam, nationalists and many other "religious" followers. The realization that they are actually willing to die for their beliefs, which leaves those of us who will die or sacrifice ANYTHING for a cause or principle at a real disadvantage. We will continue to think that we can simply buy off competing interests, which while never effective with true believers, watching our dollar demise looks like a losing strategy.
Blah, blah, blah... Is this a CDS event or not? For some reason, the moneychangers never lose...
Start taking heads already or embrace your slavery.
I TOLD YOU SO.
The Old PARASITES moved from PASOK to SYRIZA.
What would they hope to achieve if they were dependent on EuroMillions? To feast as long as possible, till they jump onto ANOTHER HOST.
Old Parasites include VarouFUCKis, Katselli, etc. etc. and possibly 75% of the present crooks in SYRIZA are old cronies from the old PASOK, from only 4-5 years ago.
One reason could've been to help the US markets over the speedbump and breakout to a new high, which is now official. If it were a positive leak, i'm not keeping up on the BS anymore it's a waste of time.
The GREXIT will occur when the FED raises interest rates back to the norms. Or in other words...NEVER!
Fate the Magnificent
"Push the Button, Max"
They'll also find the WMDs.
Through all this excitement, will she or wont she, i need to take a leak.
Glad you clarified this point - this mongus of reporters have nothing better to do than twisting and turning things around like spin doctors - another way of saying is why is it that reporters feel a need to own media and the truth of events? we all know that Greece will not default period.
If GREXIT, then EURO demise, then what's behind the offer to Greece (and Germany) to join BRICS?
A hint can be seen at this site if you click on the pictures of the new Deutschemark and Drachma bills
http://alcuinbramerton.blogspot.jp/
Oh, but what's money really worth these days?!
This is too much like a soap opera on TV - miss a dozen shows and you just pick back up where you left - nothing missed.
And it will be a totally staged event. Complete with "nobody expected this" and " thanks to the ECB & EU".
How much does the british museum earn ?... from the greek ?
https://www.google.nl/search?q=greek+statue+london+museum&biw=1366&bih=600&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=KVRbVZGsFIvD7gbHiYD4AQ&ved=0CAYQ_AUoAQ&dpr=1
http://www.britishmuseum.org/about_us/news_and_press/statements/parthenon_sculptures.aspx
"Since the early 1980s Greek governments have argued for the permanent removal to Athens of all the Parthenon sculptures in the British Museum. The Greek government has also disputed the British Museum Trustees’ legal title to the sculptures. For more information on the Greek Government’s official position, see the website of the Hellenic Ministry of Culture: www.culture.gr"
"
What is the British Museum’s position?The British Museum tells the story of cultural achievement throughout the world, from the dawn of human history over two million years ago until the present day. The Parthenon Sculptures are a significant part of that story. The Museum is a unique resource for the world: the breadth and depth of its collection allows a world-wide public to re-examine cultural identities and explore the complex network of interconnected human cultures....".......blablabla.....
Say no more, say no more wink wink, notch notch ? Hey !
The British Museum etc should have a purchase receipt for all the sculptures, like any reputable museum would keep forever. If not, they should be returned to Greece, considering the Brits were tramping around there for a while nicking stuff perhaps. The Victorian Brits even designed and installed an inferior Greek sewage system - using 4 inch pipes instead of 6 inch: spendthrifts!
There is always a blockage, sometimes it is just better to just flush it down!
Can't count either. €1,587 million ~ €1.6 billion (Not €1.5 billion).
LIST
11 May 2015 Last change to release €7,000 million/€7 billion from ECB
12 May 2015 €0,774 million IMF
05 June 2015 €0,310 million IMF
12 June 2015 €0,348 million IMF
16 June 2015 €0,581 million IMF
19 June 2015 €0,348 million IMF
30 June 2015 A four-month extension on bailout agreement expires.
13 July 2015 €0,465 million IMF
19 July 2015 €0,199 million ECB Maturity Gov't Bonds
19 July 2015 €0,104 million ECB Maturity Gov't Bonds
20 July 2015 €3,500 million ECB Maturity Gov't Bonds
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/greece-s-scary-calenda...