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Recession Check: Updating The Indicators

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submnitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,

 

 

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Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:04 | 6110182 wendigo
wendigo's picture

Blow it up already. My shit has a limited shelf life. 

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:05 | 6110190 This is it
This is it's picture

Another trolling Mr List-of-signs-and-signals.

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:18 | 6110229 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Unless you've got something better, don't knock it. Our problem is the FED and Wall St. are bending things up. Watch the commodity and bond markets though since they are starting to get pretty nervous and tend to be the panic signal in our present passion play. I'm still betting on late summer, early fall for things to get bad enough that they can't paper over the cracks anymore.....

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:23 | 6110246 joseJimenez
joseJimenez's picture

We're seeing the cracks already.  I don't like to forecast but my bet Sept/Oct timeframe SHTF!

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:37 | 6110306 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

WE'RE seeing cracks, Wall St. can't see a frigging thing through their rose colored welding glasses......

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:16 | 6110225 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

Don't fight the tape.  Market will slip when it decides to "see" these data.

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:20 | 6110234 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I don't think there will be a "decide to see", it'll likely be shoved forcefully into their collective anal orifice......

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:39 | 6110315 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

I think people are discounting the Fed's desire to normalize rates more than they should.  They know they've let this go too far.  The stock market is too hot and now the housing market just popped. Art is too bubbly.  The Fed can't be expected to offset dysfunctional fiscal policy with monetary policy without dysfunctional results.

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:19 | 6110233 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

....due to central bank interventions.

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:27 | 6110268 BlowsAgainstthe...
BlowsAgainsttheEmpire's picture

Another way of looking at it . . .

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1bQy

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:29 | 6110282 TheFourthStoog-ing
TheFourthStoog-ing's picture

There's nothing wrong with the economy, Zero Hedge morons. 

In other words, gold will continue to crater and equities - you know, those things you sold years ago so you could protect yourself from the impending stock market crash - will continue to climb high into the sky. 

No, it's not quite a 'permanently high plateau', but it's pretty close.

So continue to sulk and commiserate amongst your fellow dumb-money chumps.  There is certainly no shortage of wounds to lick, so get busy!

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:50 | 6110360 BlowsAgainstthe...
BlowsAgainsttheEmpire's picture

While I agree with the point of your comment, it would seem that prospective long-term annualized equity returns from here will be slim.  For example . . .

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1bQB

 

 

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 14:03 | 6110415 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

And now we all know thefourthstoog-ing is an idiot.

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 14:28 | 6110525 acetinker
acetinker's picture

Just in case you didn't know, this is not our beloved Shemp.  This one is "stoog", not "stooge".  FYI

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 14:31 | 6110530 farmerbraun
farmerbraun's picture

Yep, I think of this one as the stooge-ning.
(I don't know if that translates outside of Godzone)

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 20:32 | 6111770 acetinker
acetinker's picture

That went straight over my head.  Can you expound?  I'm kinda stupid, in some ways.

Be careful, I can be the web's biggest asshole, too.

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 14:38 | 6110552 Solosides
Solosides's picture

Yes,

 

and the infrastructure in the US is absolutely PRISTINE. And the manufacturing base is stronger than ever....

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 15:56 | 6110824 taggaroonie
taggaroonie's picture

My forth stool? What are you doing here?  I thought I just flushed you

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:43 | 6110330 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Dude, 1,200 + job applications in a year and no job. Yeah, fuck charts. Don't need em. This is indication enough for me. Thanks!

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:48 | 6110350 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Phew!

I thought for a minute there with the housing starts that the economy is actually improving. Now that I see it's really not I think it's safe to BTFATH cause we are going precipitously higher bitchez!

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 13:49 | 6110355 Racer
Racer's picture

subject to large backward revisions

Really? That is very surprising...

(end sarc)

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 14:46 | 6110575 Unstable Condition
Unstable Condition's picture

Christmas 1015 should be fun.

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 15:03 | 6110624 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Having a boatload of Vikings over ?

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 15:02 | 6110623 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Well just like in 1880s when the banks removed Silver Certificates from use by the farmers... money gets tight and debt rises too high as the debt burden from Usury from the Private Banks... screws everyone.

Bubble Created for the Banks Greed.
Bubble Kept for the Banks Control/Greed.
Bubble called Sacred for the Banks Control/Greed.
Bubble must be protected for the Banks Control/Greed.
Bubble adorned with LIRP/ZIRP for the Banks Control/Greed.
Bubble Socialized with QE of $4 Trillion for the banks Control/Greed.

Credit to GDP Chart shows we are still in Credit Bubble Territory and how obvious it was in 2003 (over 50%).

Bank Private Credit to GDP for United States
2011: 55.47615 Percent (Data spans from 1961 to 2011)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DDDI01USA156NWDB

But this one looks worse (Delinked to Deposits? Bubble 1996, 1998, 1999):

Private Credit by Deposit Money Banks and Other Financial Institutions to GDP for United States, 2011: 189.51640 Percent,
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DDDI12USA156NWDB

As long as Congress also got a chance to get Rich it is OKAY.

we don't have Honest Brokers in a single US Agency DOJ, FBI, SEC, FINRA, FTC, GAO, CBO, FED, Treasury, OCC, FSOC, BCFP, CFTC, FDIC, FHFA, SIPC, FEC.

Hm... Jeb Bush signed PNAC Letter as a Principal:

Elliott Abrams[3]
Gary Bauer[3]
William J. Bennett[3]
John Ellis "Jeb" Bush[3]
Dick Cheney[3]
Eliot A. Cohen[3]
Midge Decter[3]
Paula Dobriansky[3]
Steve Forbes[3]
Aaron Friedberg[3]
Francis Fukuyama[3]
Frank Gaffney[3]
Fred C. Ikle[3]

Donald Kagan[3]
Zalmay Khalilzad[3]
I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby[3]
Norman Podhoretz[3]
J. Danforth Quayle[3]
Peter W. Rodman[3]
Stephen P. Rosen[3]
Henry S. Rowen[3]
Donald Rumsfeld[3]
Vin Weber[3]
George Weigel[3]
Paul Wolfowitz[3]

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 15:25 | 6110698 matagorda
matagorda's picture

The Las Vegas gaming "win amount" as reported by the UNLV Center for Gaming Research (fun job!) has been a good recession indicator as far back as the numbers go, Y2K.  According to this indicator, we're in a recesion now and have been since sometime last year.  Seehttp://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/longterm_nvgaming.pdf and http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/6_month_NV.pdf 

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 15:27 | 6110707 adr
adr's picture

My favorite part of the charts is the boner spike in Q2 2009.

Like the business cycle can really post a 250% increase in three months during the deepest part of the recession. Golly, what changed in March of 2009? Oh yeah, Mark to Market was abandoned and Mark to Fantasy was officially recognized as accepted accounting. What was hundreds of million in losses instantly became hundreds of million in profit without any change in overall sales. Amazingly massive amounts of inventory that was being held off the books for accounting purposes appeared making it look like industrial production had exploded. In reality the product was gathering dust and had always been there. But thanks to a simple accounting change every company rushed to put the inventory on the books to count as assets to borrow against. What would have sunk you a year before was now your path to massive new lines of credit.

You can't base anything on the "recovery" because the recovery only exists as a figment of an accountant's imagination.

 

EETS AWL BOOLSHEET, FOOKIN BOOLSHEET!!!!

Tue, 05/19/2015 - 16:58 | 6111101 ucde
ucde's picture

+1. nice catch on the accounting standards revisions.

edit: holy shit! I overlooked that. that 'boner spike' is amazing! draws the integrity of the metric into question, and what you've said is the only way I can think to make sense of it.

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