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Spot The Housing Starts Outlier
Earlier today, housing starts shocked to the upside when they printed at 1.135MM, smashing estimates of 1.015MM, and representing the single biggest monthly jump since 1991. The entire surge was due to one single number.
As can be seen on the chart below, the last time single-family housing starts in the Northeast soared as much as they did in was in June 2008, just before the financial system nearly collapsed.
And in the case the outlier is still not quite obvious, here is the data since the start of the depression (which has so far been papered over with $22 trillion in central bank "asset" holdings) zoomed in:
Bottom line: the April surge was the offset of the February plunge, which suggests a renormalization of the trend once the recent volatile data renormalizes. Unless, of course, it rains in the spring when the San Fran Fed's double seasonal adjustments may be inevitable.
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ZH must have a massive cache of charts and tables of NSA and SA numbers from the ruling oligarchs. So much chart porn.....
Like most companies today, it looks like ZH is also missing half it's bottom line?
How Sing? Loudly!
Tough crowd tonight *rolls up his sleeves*
Interestiing history from November 2011.
How little has changed, if at all...
https://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/11/03/war-memes-me-iran-israel-uk-...
I agree , all them smart guys ar not as smart as they think they are , Hey ? Many still believe in the many illusions provided for them and few have a pair. Mostly bluster and lots of jargin ? I noticed when I returned recently a big difference in intellect and knowledge. But realize America has grown fat, dumb. lazy,spoiled, dishonest and cowardly ! that is just the way it si these days apparently. We all live in massive illusions and few can grasp that part. The illusions are just control mechanisms.They are many here in USSA today !
relative to the last mania, we're just about there.
not with a bang, but a whimper.
My money was always on bang AND whimper, and I boxed it both ways.
Bang? Whimper? Chaos.
Not chaos. Higalean Dialect.
Problem. Reaction. Solution.
does she whimper when you bang? there could be a chart in it for you.
Why did NE housing starts spike before the crash? If people saw the crash coming, that seems like an odd time to start building a home.
"If people saw the crash coming"
There's your key right there - they didn't want to believe it was coming. But wishing away the crash to normal is like wishing away the rain when you see the ominous dark clouds. You can close your eyes, you can bury your head in the sand, but the rain is comin'. I agree with many here though, TPTB will control this sucker as long as they can strip mine the middle class who are like the proverbial frogs in hotter and hotter water...and then when they can no longer control it - boom down, and perhaps the crack up boom (high or hyper inflation) that Mises forecast with all counterfeiting and money printing episodes - but those PTB will try to pick up the reins at the bottom, and make it look like they're 'saving' us and doing 'god's work'. Lovely of them, hmm? Criminals and scum I tell ya, and some of 'em really think they're something.
"And therein lies the rub"
Billy Shakespeare
most like today, saw nothing but good times and all the illusiions provided for them !
Being a denizen of the NE I can attest to the housing start explosion. I haven't seen this many new dirt driveways since Lehman.
Expect a correction to this number next month once someone not on SSRIs doublechecks the data.
mmmmmm chart porn - can never have enough chart porn.
if you stroke a chart just right does it get an exponential rise?
so little time and space
this analysis is so 10 minutes ago /s
"Not since Lehman!"
Bottom line: the April surge was the offset of the.... What?
The collapse? Its too early. They have to keep up appearances ya know. The shimetah, jade helm, 2015.75 and all that jazz isn't for a few months from now. Must keep pumping.................!
What is it!? What is it already!!?
I can't take this suspense!!
it doesn't necessarily repeat exactly the same but it sure does rhyme with "dash" or "prolapse" or "gust"
You forgot lips and hips.
chinese now building ghost cities in the US?
Maybe.
After they finish buying the ones we get evicted from.
Lot of money that needs laundered. Shitloads.
I'd be first one to move to NewBeijing USA.
How cool would it be, to have a city to yourself?
You might have a future with the .000001%
Maybe you could contract with those Morlocks to throw cows into the air vents of the bunkers while you serve as caretaker for your crumbling ghost city?
Cause building houses in the NE is so affordable. Tax donkeys up there and most areas have grandfathered prop tax limits on existing houses.
New construction gets the full 8 inches.
I heard of a couple who built their "dream house" only to be reamed on the assessment to the tune of like $18k in annual prop tax. This is upstate NY too, not Westchester.
I heard they had to sell the house before they moved in.
pods
If you can't afford pay rent on it for life after buying it, you don't own it. /s
Remove the sarc tag - true
Yep, remove the sarc tag. If you have to pay rent on it, whether or not you can afford it, you don't own it.
You don't own it if someone can 'tax' you for it.
Yeah, cause a lot of rural towns are losing huge tax revenues as second homes there are being abandoned.
Just heard about a couple getting hit with a 100% tax increase for the nice view from their home
Nobody can sell a home in that town now so more and more homes are left abandoned.
This mess will spread all over the country soon.
Almost forgot.. The volunteer fire dept there is gone now cause the town can't afford it and the volunteers left.
That makes home owners insurance spike too.
It's a feature, not a glitch.
I live in NJ, and every year the town raises taxes while sending a letter to the citizens about how they are holding the line on spending. Same BS every year. I once lived in a big house in the town until I got divorced. When I built the house in 1991, taxes were $14,500. By the time I sold it in 2007, the taxes were $37,000.
Down the street from my old house is a bigger one that was built around the same time as mine. I think it cost him around $3M back then. He has been trying to sell it for years and is asking less than $2M now. The biggest problem? And I kid you not - his taxes are over $50K/year - almost $1K per week.
Living in NJ is like saying "why, yes, I'd like my nuts squeezed in a vice, please."
$37 large in property taxes? Owwwwwwww! That hurts just thinking about it.
Good news is, every single one of those jabroni cunts moved to Durham NC.
So if you get to feeling nostalgic, you can get your nuts squeezed there, too. Vermin. Absolute scum sucking Garbage State made vermin.
Given my current place of employment, that is not really good news.
Of course, it is not Durham proper, and I am still out by dark.
"They mostly come out at night. Mostly."
pods
Bet you love the commute. Here is a fun game. Keep a tally of how many times you contemplate extreme homicide on the way home. Makes the trip seem shorter.
Look at Pittsboro or Mebane. When I left, the "down home" sorts were still holding those pockets. I hope they still are.
I feel for you.
You could always just move to Indy and be bored to death.
SW Wake as residence. Toll road open now, which is nice but ain't cheap. And traffic is getting worse all the way around.
At least things are still doing relatively well here.
Old commute was 45 minutes, but got to drive over the lakes, so that helped.
pdos
Nice area...too spendy for my budget at the time. We were only passing through. Wife was doing a medical Fellowship program @ Duke.
I was humping that IT dog. Wonder if that dog is still there...or was it exported. I'm betting the latter.
$37,000
Oh Mannnnnnnn. Probably a fairly modest house, too.
Then again, you'll get $13,000 more on your fed tax refund after the itemized deduction for state income tax.
THat's why bue donkeys keep voting in blue donkeys. They think the math is working.
If the repubs had any balls at all, they'd repeal the state income tax deduction. Notice the "benefit" of it is mostly in blue states.
I say benefit in quotes, because it's actually a bad deal & they don't know it.
Once the deduction is gone, you'll see torches & pitchforks outside the state capitols.
Tar & feathers, too.
let's hope so
Pittsboro's toast....here comes Chatham Park:
Chatham Park covers more than 7,000 acres adjacent to Jordan Lake and downtown Pittsboro. Chatham Park Investors, a private development group, has submitted a Master Plan for the site; a rezoning request was approved by the Town December 8, 2014 which allows the project to move forward.
http://www.chathamedc.org/buildings-sites/chatham-park
(Townfolk fought and lost...sigh)
Those "modern" planned little strip mall villages are soo disgusting.
Morrisville is filled to the gills with them. Used to be some nice land there. Now it is all 3 story "live, work, and play" strip malls pretending to be Chapel Hill.
I guess they are marginally better than the 4k sq ft McMansions on 0.15 acres where you can piss on your neighbor's house out your own window?
That area on the west side of the lake is nice. Haw and Cape Fear rivers are fucked once that thing gets going. At least the Mexicans of Chatham County are right there to build the thing.
pods
That area between Chapel Hill and Raleigh and Durham used to be pretty nice ... about 40 years ago. Developers tore up every pasture and orchard they could get their tractors on by packing their kind on city councils and amending the zoning laws. I've seen it happen in other places too like Austin and parts of Atlanta.
Total decimation. Not a cow alive or tree standing for miles.
I suppose these tax rates are coming for every USA homeowner. Otherwise how do you confiscate homes from the responsible folks that really own them.
I live in NJ as well my 26K property tax is bleeding me ,we now have a new system of being reassesed every friggin' year ! This is crazy ...because nobody wants to buy !
I will say a prayer for you tonight.
Unfortunately, you sound like the kind that NJ doesn't export. Maybe once the other kind are gone you can rebuild. Just remember what the others did.
you don't seem to understand, from NJ's point of view everyone of you suckers are buying your house all over again every year. NJ owns the house and you either buy it all over again every year or they will find someone else to buy it, after all, it's their house. Try to prove otherwise.
That is a ridiculous amount in taxes. I guess I will quit complaining about the average of $2,500/year that most properties are hit with here in NV.
Sometimes trees fall down in the road and I have to cut them out myself.
But here in E. Tennessee the tax is $200 annually. That's 5 acres, 1000 sq ft under roof on a mountain surrounded by forest.
With zero state income tax to boot. Or did they nix that?
No state income tax but a 10 percent sales tax. Tyler had a story yesterday that had TN in relatively good financial shape. This time of year TN is absolutely gorgeous. I'm not kidding though, we had an ice storm and I had to cut a lot of trees (miles away) lol. I remember setting my big chainsaw down in the road for a minute to help some old guy get to his house and the saw walking away on the ice still running. That fucking stihl is rowdy no toy.
That...stihl is...no toy.
I remember my first chainsaw, when I was asking around folks up in Oregon about what kind to get, they would look at me funny and say they only make one kind. I still got it, an .032 AVE, over 30 years old and in better shape than me.
I guess I will quit complaining about the average of $2,500/year...
Don't you dare quit! Didn't your mother ever teach you two wrongs don't make a right?
I guess I shouldn't grumble about my annual $850 on 57 acreas with spring water, 2300 sq ft house, 40 x 40 shop and no income taxes here in rain soaked east texas. oh yah, plus my free fire wood in a wood stove heated house.
debt ponzi requires exponential debt increase, population gets taxed accordingly. things will only get worse. just math really. it's night time where i am and im going to bed so ill paraphrase TJ: if you let a bunch of cocksuckers control the nation's currency theyll blow up bubbles and pop them and fuck you out of all of your wealth, and everything your forefathers fought for will have been in vain.
Makes me wish he said it like you did.
+1
There were three things about Karl (Carl?) Deninger I really admired. One of them was his repeated admonition (and I think he may have coined it): "Look, folks. This isn't politics. Or finances. Or economics or policy. It's math."
(Actually, arithmatic.)
I paraphrase, of course. Apologies to Mr. Deninger.
He didn't build that! Someone else built that!
MaxMax
37k property tax?
Yeah, but at least New Jersey doesn't have a state income tax.
...
oh, ...
never mind.
LOL - they invent new kinds of taxes here.
$37K in property tax was in 2007! ...8 years ago... I should check to see where they are at now.
Eventually, the taxes depress the value of the property. You only have so much you can spend each month.
At $1000 in taxes per week, the city surely sends an army of landscapers, maids, cleaners and other service people to the propery every week?
WTF do you get in return? Is it fun to watch municipal staff waste away with platinum plated pensions?
Sell one house to chinese man. Chinese man make four houses from one and rent them to forty people. 2015, year of the goat
Housing prices are really high in the NE right now. And oddly, the houses are shit, in total disrepair, even though they are minimum $400k. You might as well buy a plot and build new. This is what happens when no one makes enough money for upkeep.
This is what happens when Yankee fucks tax the hell out of themselves.
Then they move to the south and do the exact fucking thing.
Not Yankees but f'ing socialists/communists - they have infiltrated every strata of America and they all suck cock.
In this case, I was right. Yankee degenerate twats. My last boss was one and I really let him know it in the exit interview. Invited him to suck my balls with all the gusto his lanky ass could muster.
I'm looking at you, Paramis, NJ. Eat. Hot. Death. All of yous.
Just to hear that man talk on a conference call was enough to make me want to remove my gallbladder with a dull pencil.
Colorado and Texas suffer an equally sad infestation from the moonbeam variety you mention.
Any word on the job reference?
Anyone that called him would immediately discount every word that man ever vomited. I don't list him anyway. He was the sad result of a merger. The guy he displaced was a saint.
So it goes.
Amen, IndyPat! I live in the SE, and my entire 'hood migrated from Mass, NJ and NY. They're getting on boards and councils, and want to increase taxes and bloat out the gov't just like up north. Crazy. It's like cancer.
I wonder if there are any financial differences between today and 2008 that could make these spikes not fully comparable?
The difference is they've been doing it since 2008.
It don't make the nut anymore.
No good chart goes unpunished. Just wait a bit.
Just trying to keep the markets prop'd up folks.
In the old days of Northeast urbania, multi family housing was known as the ' projects ' .... now present day ghetto dwellings.
Many of them have been dynamited.
Sad that Tyler has become the old guy on the corner with "THE END IS NIGH" sign. Not looking forward to SHTF, but the constant predictions are getting lame, that's my gripe for the day but things are f_ing awesome for the prepared.
That seems innocent, considering the magnitude of what's coming. Nobody is going to get through this thing unscathed. It's going to affect us all.
Sad that Tyler has become the old guy on the corner with "THE END IS NIGH" sign. Not looking forward to SHTF, but the constant predictions are getting lame, that's my gripe for the day but things are f_ing awesome for the prepared.
I get totally pissed off with headlines that start with "the last time this indicator turned red" etc. I dont even bother reading the rest of the headline, let alone the article itself. Who fucking cares? But ZH is the only financial news outlet I read. Just like Angry Anal is the only porn series I watch. They're really starting to do character and plot development now
computer gliche.
keep up the good work ZH, my only source of news.
<gulp!>
Uh, the trend is our friend?
This is merely the beginning of the panic before the collapse.
No one believes their stocks are actually worth what they are listed at and so people believe they will secure their savings in a new home.
Sounds good until the ever increasing property tax is piled on each and every year.
In America you never own your home, the taxing entities do - government.
Time for the elimination of all tax except a sales tax, the IRS is the power arm of the politician.
You mean to tell me that ridiculous people standing in a half hour lunch line, buying insanely priced tacos, burritos, and enchiladas at Chipotle Mexican Grill, is not enough to justify a $650.00 price on the shares?
That AMZN which has a Negative P/E and sells a whole buncha stuff is not worth $435 a share?
That $122,000 for a single share of Buffet's Folly is not a great deal??
Zoots and alours.
Those must be good tacos
They aren't.
Spics in food trucks make better and charge 6 bucks with a coke.
I don't know about permits nation wide but here local( central ky) not much going on in new housing. But I have spent a lot of time in lowes last few months( fixing up a rental property destroyed by bad renters) and I know I am not the only one who had this problem. I saw a lot of treated lumber going out the door this spring. And the Amish were buying a big amount of what I saw going out the door. Also metal roofing. I just finished the covered deck on my cabin up in the knobs . I am not the only one doing that either
The USG is a massive Ponzi - run by the dumbest black muslim
You think that guy "runs" things?
2 year downtrend leading to june 08 outlier, 5 year uptrend leading to april 15 outlier. not sure if that makes a difference, but it's quite noticable.
Machines draw pretty pictures sometimes.
Trend is no longer a valid term outside of Macy's.
The end is near.
For now.
NINJA 2.0 Loans are making a big comeback.
Great, that will make everything better just like it did in 05-07. Oh wait....
"A picture is worth........."....nevermind.
Government statistics need a government.
housing bubble redux? no this is the maladustment bubble, goldman says stocks are going nowhere, gold cant generate income, wages are sneaking higher because rents are higher, construction workers want more money so rents go higher. this should put a nice pop in the CPI which measures equivalent rents in their housing inflation index. credit and lending is going to get tight because the fed cant raise rates without imploding their balance sheet the only course of action is to restrict credit. homeowners who opt to carry the note will benefit, building costs go up, rent goes, already said that didnt we. i have lived long enough to remember the california housing bubble in the 1970s, and we are headed there. eventually interest rates went double digits, gold went parabolic and the rest of the economy stagnated, (stagflation) anyone who could swing a hammer got into the trades. house flipping was born. you bought a fixer upper no down, maxed out your credit card, rented the buildilng, paid off the cc and started all over again. eventually the bubble burst and the mortgages went back to the bank. housing prices could double in the next ten years,
Yes, this ain't new housing bubble. I got confused, had to look up some new info, learned something new.
Existing Home Sales©, 403K in March 2015 not seasonally adjusted Monthly Data (NAR)
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2015/embargoes/ehs-04...
New Housing Starts Preliminary, 1,135 thousand units seasonally adjusted ANNUAL RATE in April 2015 but only 103.6 thousand units in not seasonally adjusted MONTHLY DATA. (CENSUS)
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
I haven't thought about the California housing bubble for a while. Yes, seems like there would be a credit problem at some point.
I can't see using cc to buy a house or renting a building out to pay the cc... some people do well with real estate I think I would pull out my hair. But watch I'll be miserable watching other people make it big.
housing inflation index, CPI, I'll have to search for that.
the government subsidizes new homes, like they subsidize new cars, they wish used cars would go away. they wish existing housing would disappear too. qe has had the effect of fraudulently raising the price of existing homes, in order to provide new home builders with a profit cushion, (they are a bigger industry than new cars, a new car is just a computer on wheels, a new home is just a car that has had the wheels taken off it and parked someplace, like amobile home, same economies. a new home like a car comes with all sorts of covenants, HOAs, registration, insurance, new homes require a lot of care and maintenance. mcmansions are the worst by the way.
NJ taxes today $37K, when you retire in 15 years they will be $110K. Save your pennies motherfckers.
Chicago\Cook County is being lumped in with Detroit. Fannie\Freddie started a new program beginning 04/01/15 called the "My City" modification. An new streamlined modification program that will reduce your motrgage by 60%. To be recongnized in the same light as Detroit is quite an honor. Of coarse, you would not think this based on the fact that housing prices have eclipsed 2008 bubble peak levels in the"Good" neighborhoods. But then you look at http://www.athomeillinois.gov/the-program/ and you see $5000 down payment assistance, $1k down or 1% of purchase price and lender paid PMI . They will even give you $$ to buy a second home... Yes, manipulation of housing continues. When this farce comes to and end, the shiz storm really begins!
Interesting with respect to rental housing in Socal. With stagnant wages and median home prices at like 10-12x median HH income, rents have been creeping up slower than value increases; buyers paying 4.5% for smaller MFD projects. Something has to give. Five to seven years out when refi cycle hits should be interesting.
Housing Bubble Top was Oct-Dec 2005. Nice try though.
What gets me is that you and I know that they're lying to us. I'd guess that we're around 15% of this country's population. The rest have reading skills a little over the 8th grade level and make up the disgustingly ignorant who think that we're experiencing an economic recovery.
Since when has buidling boxes on a piece of ground been the road to economic prosperity? Am I missing something? I know if I had to pay $37K in property taxes a year on a box, I'd burn the sonovabitch to the ground and rent.....
I thought 17k/yr was bad.
The really scary thing is that despite all the massive intervention, these peaks rhyme. There is no next time.