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"One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other"
It is very rare to see Dow Industrials hitting new highs as Dow Transports prints new range lows... one of them is wrong here...
h/t Brad Wishak
...while not all divergences mark tops, many tops are marked by divergences. So it has been the case with this version. Several major intermediate-term or cyclical tops saw this negative divergence among the Transports, including 1937, 1946, 1961, 1973, 1981, 1998, 2000 and 2007.
Currently the DJIA is at a 52-week high while the Transports are well off of their own high. But while Dow Theorists may have you running for the hills, the historical track record following similar divergences is less than ominous. That said, on the occasions when this divergence did have teeth, it bit portfolios hard.
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But.. but.. but the DJ has Apple now?!
Only geeks track the Trannys. It's sufficient for the Central Banks to prop up the S&P 500 and DJIA. They can't prop up all the averages.
There's a good reasons that transports are down, but that's one of their truths that can't be seen.....
Gah, doesnt everybody know shipping will go all digital. Transporation and shipping will go away.
I can't wait to see my first digital Peterbuilt.....
Old truckers never die, they just get a new ipad?
Rigged markets, the new normal.
I guess that app will be in the iStore shortly.
paging mr henry, mr henry please hit the buy button on IYT several hundred times please.... thank you
One is heavily manipulated while the other is only occasionally manipulated.
More to the point; When an increasing amount of the economy is simply useless paper/digital-pushing, does the transport of real goods and services really matter?
tick tock motherfucker.
Infinite overhead and zero production.
The new norm
How much of GDP is actual theft?
With how much the makeup of both of these index changes every year, they are both manipulated. Which is more manipulated? I would guess the DJIA...
if we replaced "central" with "mediocre" it would be sufficient...
It is homophobic to call them Tranny's. Please edit your message before the media police catches you.
Never met a homophobic person in my life.
Ain't nobody scared of homos.
F^&*&%^ing Bankers...
If they add Google they can take this charade up to 20K
What's wrong?
For that matter, what's right?
Y U no go down?
that's an extra $100
Buy hookers, sell blow.
Thank god it didn't happen in 1987....hate to have that happen all over again
Looks like an alligator ready to snap its jaws shut.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mpJOTuGXxc
Looks like an alligator ready to snap its jaws shut.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mpJOTuGXxc
Well, and what do the utilities say? Also down. So, no Dow Theory bullishness. Odd, though. What is The Janet thinking, to allow such divergence?
Tyler is skimming the original Tumblr post. It ended showing the history of Dow Indu vs Utes divergences: The Ute/Indu divergences showed a wicked negative return after the divergences were developed. So RUN RUN RUN now while the getting out is good.
Thirty years ago, I would be shorting. Twenty years ago, I'd probably be buying LEAP Puts. Today? I sit on the sidelines, as these completely manipulated markets don't provide any real sense of what's going in the economy (not that there IS anything going on in the economy, but I digress..), and as such are just antiquated signposts that used to read "Danger" and now read "WTF?".
Fake markets. Fake valuations. Fake enthusiasm. Fake money feeding the fake system. (Quoting Elaine: "Fake, fake, fake.")
Puddy a duddy?
Fake President?
Keep raising Dow, we will make a fortune on the downside.
the hindenburg is a transport
still flying no matter how many "omens" spotted
So what we learn from this factoid is that the companies comprising the transports are not engaged in big stock buyback programs.....
Every indicator to the economy of actual production and logistics of products and resources is down in the gutter.
Why? Because unlike sexy free money momo shit stocks that the illuminati can shake and bake/pump and dump - the Trans still use P&L metrics that are transparent and can't be bullshited with 'eyeballs' and all the rest of that nonsense. Well they can be sort of BS'd with 'non GAAP' statements, but really not much to hide.
Thus you see this massive jaw dropping disconnect that bears no track to reality in this country. However I disagree with the notion that the Fed can keep dicking this ad infinitum due CRT Print. The distortions are getting so profound now that it cannot last much longer.
My timing is always shit, but nailed the 2008 crash. And same Twilight Zone feeling is in the air.
Geez. Would someone just tell those tranny CEO's to get with the program and start buying back their own stock?
Only off by about a trillion. 1,000 point correction baked in. YAY!
Railroad traffic data: https://www.aar.org/data-center/rail-traffic-data
https://www.aar.org/newsandevents/Press-Releases/Pages/2015-05-20-railtr...
Nice link. Energy (coal&oil) down 13+%, car related stuff up 1%. Sounds like things are just great...
Dow Theory Harbinger. The 1st impulse wave of the collapse is nigh
Dow theory is leading down
They might be wrong, but that T-rex gaping maw sure isn't...
There is a simple explanation for this phenomenon and it is not Dow Theory. They just stopped doing stock buy backs for Dow Transports…
The transports are wrong. There's not enough shit on those ships! Hurry up and load them, all will be fine.
"Turn those ships around! I've got to ship! ship.. ship.... " - Mortimer
I have been charting these things 6 ways to sunday. As a ratio, there isnt much mismatch. As a pure delta in price there is some there there. Try to do the trade though. There is no futures contract for Trannys so you are doing IYT versus IYY. Look at those prices. They have nothing to do with the prices of the indexes. You can either do equal dollar amounts which means you are trading the ratio, or you can do equal share amounts which means you are trading the delta in price. Which doesnt track the actual indexes because the IYY is actually less than the IYT which is opposite of the case in the indexes. I am probably missing something that a real quant would find obvious but this is really a matter for curiosity rather than a real opportunity it seems to me.
I got nothing to say of any worth, just had to get my handle into this thread... :c)
How hard is this to understand? It's called the Dow Theory of non-confirmation. Charles Dow was the first to realize that when the Transports stopped moving goods it was because the Industrials weren't producing them. The end result? A stock market fall...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dow-jones-industrial-averageelliott-w...