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Our "Junkie Economy" Will Soon Hit Rock Bottom

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Bill Bonner via Bonner & Partners,

Addicted to Debt

Yesterday, U.S. stocks continued their climb, with a 26-point step-up to yet another all-time high for the Dow. Treasurys, meanwhile, continued to sell off. The yield on the 10-year T-note – which moves in the opposite direction to prices – rose 8 basis points to 2.2%. This follows last week’s turbulent action in the bond market, which saw Treasury yields hit a six-month high.

We have our eye on the U.S. bond market. Prices have been going up – and yields have been going down – for 32 years. And as prices have risen to the highest levels ever recorded, so has the amount of debt.

It is as though the world couldn’t get enough of the stuff. It got to be like heroin: The more debt the world took on, the more it wanted… and the bigger the dose it needed to get a buzz on.

But after the 2008 credit crisis, it is as though the major developed economies are immune to the stuff.

The Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and now the European Central Bank, have been buying it on the street corners. In the largest quantities ever.

But nothing much happens. At least, not in the real economy.

Sooner or later (a phrase we can’t seem to avoid), the entire economy is bound to get the shakes.

But we don’t know when sooner, or later, will come.

If it comes now, it will be a source of great satisfaction here at the Diary. “Finally,” we will say to no one in particular. “We knew it couldn’t last!”

A Healthy End to the Bond Bull?

There is an alternative explanation for falling bond prices. Bond prices should fall, and yields should rise, when economic growth picks up. As economic growth rates speed up, wages tend to rise… and people open up their wallets. Demand starts to outstrip the supply of goods and services. This drives up consumer prices. And interest rates start to rise. As rates go up, that raises bond yields and drives down bond prices.

This would be a healthy end to the epic bull market in bonds. A robust economy would allow central banks to raise rates and still allow debts to be paid down.

But that is not what is happening. And it won’t happen. Junkies rarely go out and get a job... and gradually “taper off” their habit. No. They have to crash... hit bottom... and sink into such misery that they have no choice but to go cold turkey.

Now, major central banks are committed to QE and ZIRP forever. They have created an economy that is addicted to EZ money. It will have to be smashed to smithereens before the feds change their policies.

An Impotent Fed

As colleague Chris Hunter reported yesterday to paid-up Bonner & Partners subscribers in The B&P Briefing:

In April, industrial production fell for the fifth straight month. And in May, consumer sentiment fell to a seven-month low.

 

And now GDP growth is flat-lining… Following the 0.1% annualized growth rate in the first quarter, the Atlanta Fed’s “real-time” GDPNow forecasting model is predicting 0.7% growth for the second quarter.

 

The U.S. economy may not be in an official recession – often measured by two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth – but it’s not far off…

Oh, but what about the big boost the economy was supposed to get from lower oil prices? What happened to that? Didn’t happen. Americans didn’t spend their gasoline savings; they saved them instead.

After adjusting for inflation, the median household income is down 10% since 2000. So it’s no wonder most Americans aren’t feeling very expansive.

And now, the price of oil is going back up. After hitting a low of $44 in March, today a barrel of U.S. crude oil sells for just under $59.

That leaves the Fed’s “stimulus” just as impotent as it has been for the last six years.

Interest rates remain ultra low. But the real economy remains as flat and dull as a joint session of Congress.

And the markets shudder...

 

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Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:36 | 6114881 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

can we send the economy to rehab?

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:38 | 6114885 Waylon Bits
Waylon Bits's picture

forget heroin.. this economy is on jenkem..

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:50 | 6114918 JBilyj
JBilyj's picture

Gross I just spit out my blue waffles reading that!

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:57 | 6114934 Beatscape
Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:54 | 6114926 centerline
centerline's picture

Well.  There is one more thing I did not need to know. 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:01 | 6114942 Bush Baby
Bush Baby's picture

It should, but it won't

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:02 | 6114944 winchester
winchester's picture

can we send the economy to rehab

 

- they said NO, NO , NOOO

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:24 | 6115015 Hope Copy
Hope Copy's picture

Greece is in 'rehab'.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:29 | 6115032 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

OK, I can accept that.  can the economy just OD then?  it keeps robbing everything I have.  soon I won't have anything.  no money in the bank (unless I pay), no cash to carry and nowhere to spend it.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:39 | 6114889 wendigo
wendigo's picture

Despite my gargauntuan, and to some people legendary drug use, I never struggled with addiction. Oh, I got addicted all right. I just found I could beat the addicition on my own, so it wasn't really a problem. Some people get over being addicts. Some need help. Some never do. 

Sounds like our economy needs a long hard look in the mirror and the strength to say "no more"! 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:51 | 6114920 boattrash
boattrash's picture

That stuff ain't addictive, I know, I've been doin it for 30 yrs with no problem!

<sarc

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:42 | 6114897 pods
pods's picture

The economy will do fine once the impostor "financial economy" is finally put to death.

Trade will always happen, even if it's just two neighbors.  
pods

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:50 | 6114919 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

People produce goods and services not money.

The Japanese got it right when they used rice as a currency. No one wants a million pounds of rice to look after so it stops pointless hoarding but facilitates trade easily and if shit turns really sour you can eat it.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:31 | 6115046 Hope Copy
Hope Copy's picture

Now with programming, robots can preform tasks of creating goods and services, but why don't they pay workman's comp and taxes ( a group of robots would eventually have to pay at the highest rate).

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:59 | 6115133 Down to Earth T...
Down to Earth Thinking's picture

Largely true enough . but the problem is putting this mess to bed and starting over ? therein is the dilemma. I came to the realization about 5 years ago that the world economic systems and more specifically here in USSA and the USD , is so broken it will all have to fail completely and start over. I see no oither solution and I am convinced that process is in fact already in motion. The sodial factors and chaos that willfollow ios the unknown? altough some of that is foreseeable as well. I think we are seeing it all unfold right before our eyes everyday.All the evidemce and info is out there for all to see.

 

I do not pretend to know every nuance of how it will play out , but I do have some likely practical insights on the subject. And it is not gonna be a joyous event or time in USSA . In fact we will suffer by far the most simply because we are way past spoiled, fat and lazy. 

 

 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:42 | 6114899 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

It's not a "Government." It's a Bankrupted Criminal Fraud Entity called the UNITED STATES, CORP. INC. Stop using Slavespeak.

The 14th Amendmnent creates a 'corporate person' aka 'citizen'. That amendment is the root of the fraud that is currently occuring in this country. This amendment defined what a 'citizen' was, is, and could be. It eliminated all rights to property and transfered them to the state. That is why you must 'register' everything with the state. The term 'registration' means to give up all rights and ownership, that is why no one owns anything in this country, because fictions(corporate persons) are dead and 'tell no tales' and 'own nothing'. Senate Report 93-549 confirms that Americans live under a dictatorship, own no property, and never can. This amendment allowed for the creation of the Act of 1871, which then in turn allowed for the creation of The Federal Reserve Act, which in turn lead to the Emergency Banking Act which dissolved the Republician form of government and replaced with a democracy. This amendment needs to gone the way of the Prohibition Amendment. Do your research the Secretary of State(Not the President who is supposed to) signed the Executive Orders in 1868 ratifing the 14th Amendment ahead of the last state and to publish it. The Secretary of State was the one who finalized it and only the President can finalize them. It is a fraud and needs to go.

I may also add, Look this up CRS Report for Congress Order Code 98-611 page 5, and I quote:

"The sixth executive order, dated July 20, 1868, and concerning the ratification of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution, was also signed by Secretary Seward and has the form of a proclamation. The same was true of the seventh executive order, dated July 28, 1868, certifying the ratification of the Fourteenth Amendment and ordering its publication."
Only the President can sign executive orders, and Johnson did not want to sign it. So there is fraud right there, not to mention the fact that 2 states recinded before it was ratified.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:12 | 6114982 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

+1 Always appreciate your efforts to enlighten and educate people here at the Hedge.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:59 | 6115134 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Your Welcome. Here's more enlightenment to illuminate.

The theory proposes that public media (such as films, television, news casts, etc.) are deliberately seeded with subtle clues to future social, political, or technological changes. According to the theory, when the relevant change is later introduced into the world, the public has become used to the idea through exposure, and therefore passively accepts it rather than offering resistance or opposition. Predictive programming is therefore thought to be a means of propaganda or mass psychological conditioning that operates on a subliminal or implicit level.
– Wikipedia, Predictive Programming

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:29 | 6115035 Hope Copy
Hope Copy's picture

I'll bet in the long run, that portion of the 14th amendment will bee seen as the new slavery.  Citizens (the living) enslaved by the non-voting. What happens when a robot is created as a coperation?  Do they have to pay workman's comp?

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 18:02 | 6115151 Down to Earth T...
Down to Earth Thinking's picture

Yep, just a giant criminal enterprise for the elites as we now live in a corporatocracy that is really a form of Fascim/cronyism !  

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 19:00 | 6115341 1033eruth
1033eruth's picture

You must use a different dictionary than I.  I wonder where you got it from?  

Registration does NOT mean that you give up all rights and ownership.  It means that a separate entity knows where every one with that particular item happens to be at the time of registration.  Registration could and usually does lead to confiscation (HISTORICALLY) but that does not change the definition.  

I'm tired of this crap about the US being a corporation.  You're full of crap.  But it is corrupt and fraudulent.  And no I'm not going to research anything or look anywhere because you're still full of shit.  The US government is not structured like any corporation that has to register.  Nor does it sell its shares on an exchange but if it did, I'd probably short it.  Then probably get squeezed out of my short by the federal reserves proxies.   

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 22:06 | 6115814 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, INC. Title 28
Section 3002 15a, b, and c, under U.S. Code, was established under treasonously signed ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION, on February 21st, 1871 by THE CROWN CORPORATION, now known as THE IMF. Our old capital city, Washington city, was also sold to them that day. Thus, we have never had any say in the CORPORATION that is posing as the governing seat of our nation.

You're Welcome.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 14:55 | 6118490 SuburbanMuppet
SuburbanMuppet's picture

"Incorporation" as you are referring to it, is just the legal terminology used to denote an entity other than a natural person.  For example, a city is a "municipal corporation", which is why you sometimes see signs that say, "City Corporate limit" on the roads.  It doesn't mean what you think it does.  I always get a chuckle out of people who think that some archaic law or legal technicality means that the country or a state doesnt "really" exist, or "really" have authority.  It doesn't matter what hairbrain ideas you have, you break "their" rules, and you're "really" going to go to jail despite your recitation of Marbury v. Madison, or the U.S.C., or whatever.  It's silly.  The law is just a set of social constructs at the end of the day.  The people who are in charge are going to do what they want in any event.   

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:46 | 6114907 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Baron de Rothschild reckons he can still Fix this!

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 18:10 | 6115189 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Dear Lord Rothschild,

I have much pleasure in conveying to you on behalf of His Majesty's Government the following declaration of sympathy with Jewish Zionist aspirations, which has been submitted to and approved by the Cabinet:

"His Majesty's Government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country."

I should be grateful if you would bring this Declaration to the knowledge of the Zionist Federation.

Yours sincerely,

Arthur James B

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:48 | 6114910 boattrash
boattrash's picture

Hey! Is that a pic of my ex-wife?

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:53 | 6114923 European American
European American's picture

Soon, soon, soon, soon, soon, soon. soon, soon. soon, etc., etc., etc., ad nauseam.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:19 | 6115007 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

That there broken pipeline earl spill along the Santa Barbara Coast is some good Krugman stimulus, ne pas?

 

Although I can't say the fish and sea lions will like it veryu much. They're probably already struggling with Fuki disease.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:05 | 6114954 cigarEngineer
cigarEngineer's picture

The blow-off top will go much higher than anyone would think is rational. They can milk it much higher from here. I would say another 3 years at least. The doomsayers have been talking about the crash every year but the reality is there's a lot more juice left to squeeze from this dead economy. Many more mergers, layoffs, et cetera. There's still a lot of value left to destroy.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:30 | 6115034 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"There's still a lot of value left to destroy."

 

You mean wealth transfer. 

 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:52 | 6115106 BandGap
BandGap's picture

In a financial aspect this might be true, but social forces are starting to boil over. If Greece tanks watch the spread of the discontent across Europe and then here in the states. Mob mentality doesn't require the angst to be based on any parallels here or there, just that people are fed up with this shit.

 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 18:13 | 6115192 Down to Earth T...
Down to Earth Thinking's picture

What about outlier events  ? that is as important or more important going forward, than the schemes themselves . Everything we see is simply a control mechanism and all are subject to outlier events that are always present in this system of things. To say it is all very tenuos is a huge understatement at best, given all the dynamics in play world wide.

I am convinced it is all so broken that the outlier events will be the final outcome not anything to actually do with economics or finance. Those are already just a dream or illusion.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 19:19 | 6119419 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Confidently said by a card-carrying member of the Pinko Fascist Commies---enemies of Freedom Loving Peoples the world over...

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:07 | 6114960 economessed
economessed's picture

Somebody arrest the drug dealers -- please arrest Mr. Yellen and the Bernank on Indonesian soil, so they can be dealth with properly.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:13 | 6114985 Matthew John
Matthew John's picture
Our "Junkie Economy" Will Soon Hit Rock Bottom

When is "soon"?

I'm tired of waiting....

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:54 | 6115116 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Nice avatar, I need to pick up some low recoil stuff.

I'm tired too, my advice is to use the time to prepare.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 18:01 | 6115142 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

I'm going broke waiting...

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:13 | 6114986 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Bonner's okay but the ex-Daily Reckoning writer that I'd rather read on Zero Hedge is the Mogambo Guru.

He'd fit right in.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:17 | 6114991 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Bob Dole can peddle some Viagra to the impotent economy, verdad?

 

aka, Electile Dysfunction

 

We can't seem to elect a politican worth a crap.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:23 | 6114996 Hope Copy
Hope Copy's picture

If they had listened to Putin, fuel taxes would have been implimented, as in Europe.  If the economy is going to tank, it is nessicary to get taxes higher on the inelastic 'driver', as government can control oil better than everything else.  Look for increases in stock trade taxes as the 'throddle'.  If this happens, we will have gone 'Greek'.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:22 | 6115012 CHC
CHC's picture

Americans didn't save shit on lower gas prices.  They just had to pay out more for utilities and health care.  Save?  HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:26 | 6115030 yogibear
yogibear's picture

A currency crisis must occur before the Federal Reserve stops it's recklessness . 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 18:15 | 6115205 Down to Earth T...
Down to Earth Thinking's picture

that is already in motion and rolling !

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:50 | 6115083 combatsnoopy
combatsnoopy's picture

With the emergence of RMB trading centers emerging throughout the globe so China can fascilitate trades and expand the accessibility of the Remnimbi as a reserve currency, the U.S. really needs to twist arms as part of the TPP Agreement and so forth and tell China that they can do it as long as they remove all barriers to the U.S. financial sector, which Clinton failed to do back in 1995 during the Multilateral Investment Agreement between the U.S. and China.

 

 

Here are the REAL green shoots: "

"Chinese investments in U.S. businesses are accelerating"

 

 

"Chinese investments in U.S. businesses, all but nonexistent 15 years ago, now total nearly $50 billion and could reach $200 billion by the end of the decade, according to a new study tracking the accelerating trend.

Rising energy and labor costs in China have helped to push the trend toward direct U.S. investments by Chinese individuals and companies over the last five years, said the study by global research firm Rhodium Group and the nonprofit National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.

Chinese investors have bought or created 1,583 U.S. companies over 15 years through December that now employ 80,600 full-time workers after a five-fold increase in the last five years.....The government is giving them a big push to go international," he said. He cited as an example China's recent bid for a high-speed rail project in Mexico, which was initially approved but later fell through.

China's outbound investments began only in the early 2000s, Towson said, and until the last five years, almost all of it was focused on natural resources, such as acquiring mining assets in areas like Latin America. That's starting to slowly change, he said.

Rhodium's study stems from its desire to get a clearer picture of foreign investments in the U.S. Its study doesn't count deals in progress, only completed transactions. It also traces the money that China says flows into Hong Kong, a semi-autonomous Chinese city, to show how much of it often ends up in investments elsewhere.

The study includes Chinese investments in large-scale real estate but not residential real estate — a hot market in California for Chinese millionaires — or construction projects because those jobs aren't permanent.

The Chinese are the top foreign buyers of U.S. homes, spending $22 billion on residential real estate from April 2013 to March 2014, according to the National Assn. of Realtors. About 51% of reported purchases were in California, Washington and New York.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported that the nation's total foreign direct investment in 2013, the latest year for which statistics are available, was $107.8 billion, making it the third largest in the world behind the U.S. and Japan.

But it calculated outflows to the U.S at just $3.9 billion, only 3.6% of the total and 4.3% lower than the previous year.

And according to U.S. statistics, U.S. companies and entrepreneurs have accumulated nearly $6.35 trillion in total foreign direct investments over its much longer history of such deals, compared with China's $660 billion. China still ranks behind Britain, Germany, France, Hong Kong and Japan in total accumulated direct investments, though it is rapidly moving up the ranks.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis statistics show that China accounted for less than 1% of all foreign investment from 2010 through 2013. South Korea had more than twice the volume, Japan 13 times more and Britain spent 18 times as much buying U.S. business operations or starting new ones.

Those figures understate the outflow from mainland China because they miss certain investments made through Hong Kong or other offshore locations, Rhodium's Hanemann said.

Such statistics are "the main reason" why Rhodium built its own database of deals, he said.

The study's approach is conservative, Hanemann said.

....Indeed, there are Chinese and U.S. entertainment partnerships, mergers and acquisitions that may not meet Rhodium's definition of direct foreign investment, said Bennett Pozil, executive vice president at East West Bank.

"There is a lot going on, from co-production to investment on the project side as well as partnerships, ventures and investments on the [merger and acquisition] side," said Pozil, who specializes in entertainment lending between the U.S. and greater China.

Overall, the Rhodium report said investment in California is spread across a wide range of industries, with a focus on high tech in San Francisco and Silicon Valley....

...Whether total Chinese direct investment in the U.S. surges to as high as $200 billion by the end of 2020 will depend, in part, on the slowdown in China's booming economy. If it stagnates or shrinks, Chinese companies might slow down or cash out their investments in the U.S. to shore up domestic operations, said Orlins at the National Committee.

But should growth continue, only at a slower pace, "China becomes a relatively less attractive destination for capital," and the U.S. could look more enticing, Orlins said."

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-chinese-us-investment-20150520-sto...

So what can we do to retain and attract more investments into our PRIVATE sector vs. the public sector?  Lower capital gains tax and um...raise the value of the USD for a CARRY TRADE INCENTIVE to hold money in U.S. companies and financial vehicles.
Yellen and the boomer voting majority are dipshits.

 

p.s. I'm too lazy to doctor up the html that didn't come out right- sorry folks.   

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 18:20 | 6115235 Down to Earth T...
Down to Earth Thinking's picture

so China will save us , Hey ? not the last time I looked which was today. It is all bullshit China included  :)  you are dreaming or high ? 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 19:27 | 6115412 TheAntiProgressive
TheAntiProgressive's picture

What do you hold if you are China, US Treasuries = Fiat USD or real physical assets.  Take your pick.  An IOU or a real asset?  Seems simple logic to me.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:59 | 6115136 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

"It is as though the world couldn’t get enough of the stuff. It got to be like heroin: The more debt the world took on, the more it wanted… and the bigger the dose it needed to get a buzz on."


We're at bath salts level at this point, plan accordingly

 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 18:17 | 6115206 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Cnbc said the other day that walmart sales were down because they are losing the price war. Losing it to who? If walmart sold shit any  cheaper they'd be giving it away. They said it with a straight face too. I nearly threw my tv at the wall.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 20:24 | 6115543 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Same here.

Only place cheaper is thrift shop for clothes and food banks.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 21:49 | 6115765 JoWazzoo
JoWazzoo's picture

Those too cutesy fuckers likely never set foot in a Walmart.  Fuck them.  Problem is Walmart IS losing a lot of shoppers.  To $ General and Dollar Tree, etc.  THAT shows you how truly fucking shitty the economy truly is.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 18:59 | 6115338 American Sucker
American Sucker's picture

If it comes now, it will be a source of great satisfaction here at the Diary. “Finally,” we will say to no one in particular. “We knew it couldn’t last!”

"All these people are suffering and the new government is vicious and totalitarian, but it feels so good to be right!"  Sociopath.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 19:18 | 6115388 Cityzerosix
Cityzerosix's picture

The Red Maoist Army shall triumph in the remote colonies of North Amerika.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 19:53 | 6115461 dsty
dsty's picture

sad picture

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 20:20 | 6115527 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

"How dare those little bastards put their gas savings in the bank instead of spending it at Walmart!!  Some of the ungrateful bastards have even used cash to purchase firearms!!!!  ZERO RATES AND ILLEGAL CASH NOW!!!!!!!!!!!"  A future statement by...............Lord Obama.

Make that a future statement that reaches our ears, that is.  It's already been said.

IMO this mofo's gona go up in flames when they try this shit, as well it should.  Sharecropper bs and such, I don't think so.  Instant fucking war zone is more like it.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 20:23 | 6115537 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Yep, wait till you take your little pos plastic card to the gunshop "purchase denied".   Care to use gold? That's a federal offense punishible by immediate FEMA Camp entrance.  This shits gona get UGLY.  I'm sure of it.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 19:26 | 6119436 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Yep! Hoards of Pinko Fascist Commies hanging from lampposts and floating in lakes and rivers all over the country. It will be a sight to behold!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!