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Stocks Slump After Liesman Reports GDP To Be "Double Seasonally-Adjusted" Upward

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just two days ago we pointed out that Janet Yellen's San Francisco Fed has decided it's time to take back the media spotlight from its Atlanta counterpart which, thanks to an incredibly prescient, real-time GDP forecasting machine, has managed to make the financial news quite often after we first highlighted the "nowcast" back in March.

In sum, the San Fran Fed decided that the weak Q1 GDP data simply needed to be seasonally adjusted (again) in order to make it ...well, less weak.

The official estimate of real GDP growth for the first three months of 2015 was shockingly weak. However, such estimates in the past appear to have understated first-quarter growth fairly consistently, even though they are adjusted to try to account for seasonal patterns. Applying a second round of seasonal adjustment corrects this residual seasonality. After this correction, aggregate output grew much faster in the first quarter than reported.

Got that? There was still some "residual seasonality" (i.e. the data still looked weak) in the Q1 print after the first round of seasonal adjustments, so in order to "correct" things, a second round of seasonal adjustments needs to be applied, after which the new figures should show that the economy did not in fact flatline in the first three months of the year. Of course if the numbers still don't come out looking the way you want them, you can always rinse and repeat. As we put it two days ago:

And if the double seasonally adjusted data doesn't work? Why triple adjust it, then quadruple adjust it, until you get precisely the goalseeked number you want, as US economic "data" promptly devolve to a level of ridiculousness that will make even the Chinese Department of Truth turn green with envy.

Sure enough, just moments ago, CNBC's Steve Liesman (who else) reports that the double seasonal adjustments are indeed in the works. 

Here's Liesman himself:

The government agency charged with calculating the nation's growth rate is acknowledging problems with its numbers and pledging a series of fixes over the next several months.

 

In a statement to CNBC, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said it's "aware of issues" in it gross domestic product data and "is developing methods to address what it has found."

 

The BEA statement comes after CNBC, in a detailed report in April, showed that first quarter GDP data has been weaker than the other three-quarters for the past 30 years and substantially weaker in the past five.

 

Several economists, including researchers at the San Francisco and Philadelphia Federal Reserve banks and many Wall Street economists, have since confirmed CNBC's findings. Many attribute the problem to what is known as "residual seasonality" which are seasonal patterns that remain in the data even though it is already adjusted for seasonal variations.

 

Nicole Mayerhauser, chief of BEA's national income and wealth division, which oversees the GDP report, said in the statement that the agency has identified several sources of trouble in the data, including federal defense service spending. Mayerhauser said initial research has shown this category of spending to be generally lower in the first and the fourth quarters. The BEA will also be adjusting "certain inventory investment series" that have not previously been seasonally adjusted. In addition, the BEA will provide a more intensive seasonal adjustment quarterly service spending data.

There you have it. Full-statistics-massaging-goalseeked-retard, and now Janet Yellen can completely ignore the miserable GDP print on her way to hiking rates sooner rather then later, plunging the economy into a recessionary tailspin which can then promptly be used to justify QE4.

In the end, it appears as though the BEA is about to replace all of its goalseeking excel models with this:

 

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Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:45 | 6114696 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

What a douche!

The new term is "RESIDUAL SEASONALITY"!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102695676

This will happen to him any minute now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_Lnz64vXB8

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:51 | 6114733 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Higher rates are coming.  Rabbit out of a hat, it's not.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:53 | 6114746 NoVa
NoVa's picture

Bartender - make mine a Triple!

seriously - like Bullwinkle trying to pull a Rabbit out of the hat on the old TV show.  Oops, a lion - that won't work.  Back in the hat and try again.

 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:57 | 6114759 Looney
Looney's picture

It looks like Rand Paul is filibustering again.

He’s been speaking for 3 or 4 hours on the Senate’s floor on the NSA surveillance.

During his previous filibuster on Drones, Cruz and Rubio were participating, but not THIS time.

These two cocksucking neo-cunts don’t think it is an important issue.

Looney

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:49 | 6114914 BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

When making broth where the main ingredient is boot leather, double seasoning is in order.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 21:52 | 6115778 newdoobie
newdoobie's picture

Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!

Again?

Presto, MOARRRRR!

opps, guess I don't know my own strength

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:41 | 6114893 Beatscape
Beatscape's picture

Gives them cover to raise rates so they don't look like the perennial bubble blowers that they are.  But when the Fed delivers their long promised rate increase, it will be a very small one. And, they will fight behind the scenes to keep rates on US Treasuries capped.  Otherwise, they risk destroying dollar credibility with $USD 60 trillion (!) in US debt servicing obligations.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:44 | 6114701 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

We Liesman'ed some GDP.  

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:56 | 6114755 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

An ode to our new GDP

More fraud from the Powers That Be

was right

And to his delight

Some much higher numbers we'll see

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:07 | 6114793 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Well played sir. [Golf Clap]

Good to see you again, LK...

 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:48 | 6114718 pods
pods's picture

You know that bitch is UGLY when you need TWO bags.

pods

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:10 | 6114804 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Reminds me of a golfer I once knew: He claimed he never lost because he was always the scorekeeper...

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:31 | 6115044 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Luckily you will have both after you drink the required ammount of hard

liquor.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 21:06 | 6115645 JoWazzoo
JoWazzoo's picture

Well certainly double coyotee ugly fer sure.  For those unfamiliar, a broad is coyote ugly when you wake up, see her sober (OMG!!  I did her last night?), and rather than wake her up, you chew off your arm.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:48 | 6114720 SERReal1
SERReal1's picture

And if you don't like the 2nd revision, the 3rd, 4th, Xth, will be out shortly. Total bullshit.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:05 | 6114951 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

They know that no matter how much they "seasonally" adjust these numbers, that at the end of the year, the actual growth must be equal to the seasonally adjusted growth rate in order to justify the "seasonal" adjustments...right?

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 18:24 | 6115249 ThaBigPerm
ThaBigPerm's picture

Nope. That's when they roll out the annual adjustments. To "correct" for year-to-year variability. And probably because of global warming.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 20:00 | 6115484 Ballin D
Ballin D's picture

NASA seasonally adjusted the weather last year. They literally took the seasonal temperature and added degrees to it until it was the most unseasonal weather ever reported (record breaking temperatures).

 

Fuck you Bernanke.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:49 | 6114725 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

Bring on the Hookers and Blow!

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:51 | 6114734 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

So make believe data makes the make believe market go down. I find that hard to believe

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:52 | 6114735 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Two days ago nobody had ever heard of double seasonal adjustment.  Now the official numbers will be revised and reported using this new methodology.

This is utterly fucking amazing.  No comment period, no independent peer review.  Just.... "OK, done."

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:54 | 6114747 NoVa
NoVa's picture

Well, I've heard of Double Secret Probation - !

 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:02 | 6114756 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Its definitely toga party time when Steve Fucking Liesman is telling the BEA the next method they should use to rig their numbers AND THEY ACTUALLY DO IT THE VERY NEXT DAY.

How do you think everyone is going to feel when Q2-4 come in BELOW expecations using this new method?  Oh, that's right, they'll only use it for Q1 and keep using the old method for Q2-4.  Of course!  What was I thinking?

Whooptie fucking doo!  Let's all go do some lines and run around naked while shooting fireworks out of our asses!  Why not?  We've done everything else, we might as well do that too.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:21 | 6114841 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The real question is, which is more important?

The numbers publicly stated or the reality that the numbers are supposed to represent (and likely don't).

These hollow fucks, so intent on their profits, will feign interest in these numbers, but only so far as how it effects "their" markets. The fact that these numbers could be false, misleading or completely irrelevant to our actual circumstances means nothing to them. They are the epitome of "how many fingers am I holding up". They really don't care. If five makes them money and four does not, then fuck four....five it is. It is the deep seated corruption, not only in the obvious theft and fraud that we see being perpetrated before our eyes, but this elemental corruption that allows us to deny ALL reality if it is profitable to do so, and this is why we are so terribly fucked.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:17 | 6114994 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

which does the aglos consume?  Its all about keeping the market up at all costs at this point

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:57 | 6114760 SERReal1
SERReal1's picture

Don't you dare blaspheme Animal House in the name of this market bullshit / sarc.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:11 | 6114809 centerline
centerline's picture

Good cooks always know to go bold on the seasoning! 

Oh, wait... I thought we were talking about food.   Hmmm....  funny thing, looks like it still applies.  Who knew?  Guess I learned something today after all.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 19:05 | 6115354 The_Dude
The_Dude's picture

Typical Oligarch behavior....when the game doesn't play in your favor, CHANGE THE RULES!!!

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:53 | 6114744 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Went priapic for a short time then collapsed...people actually LISTEN to these bubbleheads??

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 19:29 | 6115417 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

The perfect zio bnkster propagandist is named LiesMan.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:54 | 6114749 inhibi
inhibi's picture

INFINITE_ADJUSTMENT.fed

if (GDP_GROWTH < 0)

GDP_GROWTH = GDP_GROWTH * -1 

else if (GDP_GROWTH < EXPECTED_GROWTH)

while (GDP_GROWTH < EXPECTED_GROWTH)

GDP_GROWTH += SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

end 

end

 

There fixed it for them. Now the economy will be great! ALL THE TIME!

 

 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:58 | 6114764 SERReal1
SERReal1's picture

Everything is awesome. Buy MOAR STAWKS!

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:37 | 6114883 fascismlover
fascismlover's picture

You forgot the last routine:

if INVESTING_PUBLIC[current] == STUPID

return true

else

return true

end

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:55 | 6114753 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

is it like double secret probation?

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:57 | 6114761 Rainman
Rainman's picture

yawn ... nary a peep will be heard about it. Most Murikan press is busy wondering when Bruce Jenner gonna grow a pussy.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:23 | 6114845 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

There is no doubt, absolute consensus...he IS a pussy. Nothing to grow but an abscess.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 20:20 | 6115529 No.Fifth.Turning
No.Fifth.Turning's picture

Most don't know their GDPee from their GDPoo.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 15:57 | 6114763 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Everyone else has said that the q-1 GDP print was too strong and will be revised downward... The Dept. of .gov truthisms say that the numbers need to be moar adjusted because they're too low.

  Until you see the sky falling, and Unicorns smoldering in hell, you should BTFATH like a good little Soviet. >>>Forward

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:03 | 6114768 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

'When it becomes serious, you have to lie'

 Jean-Claude Juncker

This has become standard operating procedure, and it doesn´t even matter anymore if the lies are blatently obvious or not. 

Stack for all your worth.  This bitch of an economic system is on it´s last legs.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:02 | 6114781 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

So the rate hike is in August since by July they will show all is residually okie dokie?

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:05 | 6114785 Bob
Bob's picture

Big Brother always increases my chocolate ration! 

I <3 The Fed. 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:05 | 6114786 SillyWabbits
SillyWabbits's picture

You can only find residual seasonality if you look for it.

The amazing thing is; if you look for it you will find it.

Not only that ,it will be exactly what you were looking for.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:06 | 6114789 JoeTurner
JoeTurner's picture

Numbers shmumbers, I'll do whatever Jim Cramer says...

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:07 | 6114795 Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture

Mmmm fudge! I'll take a double helping.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:15 | 6114823 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Wallstreet uptick represents more robotic replacement to labor force. Wait until the resistant backlash begins. Even Obama's union labor force donater's. 

My popcorn is ready once meltdown begins. Just think about a mass scale Union revolt. Everyone of those fucks paid into the Union to elect Obama. Kiss your pension, job away to new immigration laws. 

Can't happen to a better low IQ group of progressive leaches. 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:21 | 6114840 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

It's hard to question the numbers when you live in Never Never Land...

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:23 | 6114844 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

The so-called weather stone in your picture may be simple, but it's reasonably accurate -- which is why the BEA would never replace their current garbage-in garbage-out models with it.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:26 | 6114851 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

To have a real game for gamblers, they must believe they either know something or have something that others do not before they will throw down more than a few chips. Prognosticators are the smelly shit fertilizer that feeds the casinos. That and a circle jerk of self ingratiating idiots telling each other how smart they are. Their reference to muppets perfectly outlines their thinking.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:31 | 6114864 moneybots
moneybots's picture

A residual record 93 million not working.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:33 | 6114871 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

" ...pledging a series of fixes..." Did they raise their right hands and swear on the bible? If not, the market is going down.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:35 | 6114876 CHC
CHC's picture

This is just another example why the U.S. is going straight down the shitter.  Thanks Mr. Government, job well done.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:41 | 6114890 Exit through th...
Exit through the gift store's picture

Thank god for free healthcare, food stamps television and candy crush. Otherwise 93 million people out of work might want to seasonally adjust some faces.

 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 16:56 | 6114931 A is A
A is A's picture

And I suppose if they find that one of the other quarters is stronger than the others, they will double seasonally adjust it down right?.... Yeah, that's what I though. I'd laugh if it wasn't so sad.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:00 | 6114941 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

It's amazing how much .gov will cover for the dictators economy.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:08 | 6114966 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

Must have been some real ass kicking around the BLS office after that last report.

Sounds like some folks got reeducated over the last couple of weeks.

This won't happen again.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:08 | 6114967 adr
adr's picture

Let's see, they already added all the intangibles that were already accounted for in GDP and now they will double seasonally adjust the data to add more fake growth.

All it really means is that GDP is way in the negative and all of this BS is needed just to squeak by to keep the growth narrative alive. 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:26 | 6115025 Pantalone
Pantalone's picture

Shadowstats reckons Liesman's huge skull to be 87% filled with horse shit as opposed to the generally accepted 45%. 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:30 | 6115040 poland spring
poland spring's picture

LIESMAN????????  I couldn't even make this stuff up.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 17:36 | 6115059 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

Ministry of Truth hard at work 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 18:57 | 6115337 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

Credibility?  We don't need no stinkin' credibility!

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 19:17 | 6115383 NIETSNEREM
NIETSNEREM's picture

So tired of Liesmans lies and misrepresentations. In a tete a tete with Santellli, he asked him if he wanted the birth death adjustment process to put back the 50,000 jobs it subtracted from employment for last month. As if that's justification for manipulating the data. However, unless I read the BLS.gov report wrong, didn't the birth death adjustment process on their site say the adjustment was PLUS 250k jobs? I mean, WTF already?

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 21:20 | 6115686 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

The difference between a hot "fudge" sundae and a double hot "fudge" sundae...

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 21:54 | 6115780 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Federal Fudge free for all. If you don't like the numbers we will make more.

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 22:42 | 6115791 VW Nerd
VW Nerd's picture

CNBC reminds me of WWF.  One being athletic rejects acting all serious, spewing mindless hype and believing their audience think it's all real.  The other a bunch of non journalist rejects acting all serious, spewing mindless hype and believing their audience think it's all real. Amusing entertainment, not much else....Sorry Steve!

 

Ha ha.  I know what some of you are thinking right now,  "WWF's not real??"

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 22:41 | 6115935 35 Whelen
35 Whelen's picture

... first they came for the global temperatures ... 

 

... massaging anything they can to make it fit the propoganda ...

 

 

Wed, 05/20/2015 - 22:51 | 6115972 Magooo
Magooo's picture

'Residual seasonality'  

 

Did Don Draper invent that term?

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 20:44 | 6119616 rbblum
rbblum's picture

Unlike the wisdom of statesmen, politicians' ideology trumps facts and the natural laws of economics. 

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