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2015's Lowest Volume, VIX Crush, & Data Dump Send Stocks To Record Highs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

SUMMING IT ALL UP FIRST - WE HIT RECORD HIGHS TODAY ON THE LOWEST VOLUME OF THE YEAR AS GLOBAL MACRO DATA MISSED EN MASSE... that is all

In the last 12 hours  - China PMI Miss/Drop, Japan All Actvity Index Miss/Drop, France Services PMI Miss, German Manufacturing & Services PMI Miss/Drop, Eurozone Composite PMI Miss/Drop, Chicago Fed National Activity Index Miss/Drop, Initial Jobless Claims Miss/Drop, US Manufacturing PMI Miss/Drop, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Plunge, Philly Fed Miss/Drop, EU Consumer Confidence Miss/Drop, Existing Home Sales Miss/Drop, Kansas City Fed Collapsed... and Stocks Surge...

 

 

First if anyone wondered what was driving US equity strength today (in light of the total collapse in US, European, and Chinese data)... we present...

NOTE - when Oil closed on NYMEX, stocks got jiggy and (see below) VXX manipulation started

Second, volume was the worst of the year... period!

*  *  *

OK - having got that off our chest, here are your "markets"...

NOTE - Before you all whine about the use of the word "Bounce" when close to close was so weak, perhaps look at the chart first... stocks dumped after hours last night on Goldman's "no slack" report

Stocks rallied excitedly... recovering the BEA-embarrassment dump

 

In anticipation of how just one more rate cut, one more month of no rate hikes, or one more QE drip will bring about escape velocity and fill the void between the fundamentals and the fallacy of stocks...

 

Oh and even better, Draghi uttered this total lie - *DRAGHI SAYS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED RECENTLY

 

Remember, "Decoupling"...

 

Trannies bounced the most on the day (after an ugly week)...

 

Now seemingly loving higher oil prices...

 

Leaving Nasdaq and Small Caps leading on the week... and Trannies still red

 

VIX was clubbed like a baby seal... Spot VIX 12.09!!

 

VIX Futures were a one way street...

 

VXX hit a new 52-week low - and was just absolutely crushed...

 

Bonds rallied notably on the day with a dramatic flattening of the curve...

 

The USDollar limped very modestly lower on the day but remains up over 2.2% on the week...

 

Despite USD weakness today, gold, silver and copper were all flat to slightly lower on the day...

 

 

Post-FOMC, Crude is crushing it, gold sliding...

 

But crude went full 'there will be blood"-tard...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Well...

 

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Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:10 | 6118837 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

"No volume".  What do you expect???

Very very few sane, real retail "investors" would play in these "markets"...it's all huge funds, hedgies, insurers, government proxies, financial firms, corporations and banks mechanically swapping a handful of shares among themselves each day.  Extend-and-pretend writ large: if nothing moves, no losses need be booked and the value of the collateral stays high.

And who needs to sell anyway!?  There$ more where that green $tuff came from!

 

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 17:02 | 6119037 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

Right you are. Exactly right. I was thinking today how the insurance companies are sitting ducks... they're going to get absolutely slaughtered once the market cracks. And it's going to happen so fast they even won't know what hit them. They should know... but they're stupid enough to stay in anyway. They don't seem to know that being in cash "is a position".

All the other groups you mentioned... agreed, they're going to get slaughtered too. The only ones with any advantage will be the big banks who make all this craziness possible... some of them are going to know 'when' to bail out. But they won't all be able to bail at the same time and I'd say the majority of the Goldmans, BACs, Citi's and Morgans are going to get murdered in spite of the fact that they know it's coming. No buyers. No liquidity. A freakin' selling free-for-all.

Man it's going to be epic. Bibilical.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 17:29 | 6119122 walküre
walküre's picture

AIG was bailed out. Since then the insurers don't care. But they're on borrowed time because the low yield environment is totally killing their business models.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 19:20 | 6119422 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Not just the insurers.  The entire system thinks "investment" consists of buying an income stream, be it dividends or any other kind of payout.  When everyone has to make the sudden, wrenching adjustment to zero real growth and to zero yield, they won't be able to speculate/bet ("investment grade debt" only) OR actually produce needed real goods.

It will be fun to watch.  Savers WILL be rewarded big time.

 

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:24 | 6118840 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Charlie and Grandpa are stuck in the fizzy lifting machine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQytqzQOR3Y

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9Cby33ZR98

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:43 | 6118965 AIIB
AIIB's picture

burp that everlasting gobstopper out bitch!

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:09 | 6118844 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

this stock market is so cool! this weekend i'm going to party like it's 1929!!!!!!

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:10 | 6118847 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

Is this when the rollercoaster slows down as it gets to the top? Don't pass out on the way down or you are buying drinks.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:11 | 6118853 david goliath
david goliath's picture

this website sucks bad now!

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:26 | 6118912 saints51
saints51's picture

Explain....

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:55 | 6119014 walküre
walküre's picture

you're right, I wish they would finally bring out the pom poms and start cheerleading the markets!

when the last bear turns bullish, is the time to short

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:15 | 6118856 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Odd day, with elements of a summer pre-holiday trade, like July 4, with “do no harm” early goosing algos, yet it seemed mainly a QQQs rally on the usual suspects (AAPL, AMZN), with IWM modestly negative.  Yellen on tap tomorrow created no worries, the bad data makes any ‘hawkish’ stock comments moot, as machines don’t expect hikes this calendar year.  So, don’t sell, goose mildly, repeat, repeat.  Still, have a feeling Monday could be eventful, perhaps wishful thinking ...

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:44 | 6118970 Traderone
Traderone's picture

Cash closed on Monday bro. Is there something on the calendar that I am missing?

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:50 | 6118995 Traderone
Traderone's picture

Just read other comments so disregard about Monday. Its not a holiday in my country but as a daytrader i still get the day off so off to Portugal tomorrow for some rays and back at the desk Wednesday ( 3 days wasn't enough). Good trading to you sir.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 17:00 | 6119030 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

We Americans have counterproductive work ethics, it's only after calling tech support to ask why our charts aren't working that we realize it's a holiday, a perfect time to clean out the garage, or grout ceiling tiles using Michelangelo's original Sistine Chapel scaffold.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 18:29 | 6119306 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Cannon Fodder Weekend, USA! USA! USA! 

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:20 | 6118883 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

Volume isn't needed when the software is 100% owned by the Tribe.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:19 | 6118885 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

“Crappy Together”   by The Turtles      (from “Happy Together”)

Imagine price discovery, I do
I think about it day and night, it’s just not fair
That our Fed Chair’s such a dove, but I’m a bear
So crappy together

If they should lock her up, invent a crime
The longs of the world would panic, jump in the Rhine
Imagine how my FAZ would trade, so very fine
Liebfraumilch would taste better

I can’t see rates hiked above 0.0002
For all my life
Even if Plosser holds his breath and turns blue
Or pulls a knife

Me and her, and her and me
The worst Chair in the world for bears
Since Benny B
The buy-stop on my AAPL short’s at $603
So crappy together

Like economists and leather, so crappy together
Guess I’ll go long bellwethers
Ba-ba-ba-Ba, ba-ba-ba-ba …

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 21:39 | 6119785 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

gotta buy a new keyboard again KCS.....spit coffee all over this one.

a new best!

 

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 06:47 | 6120561 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Strange to do this one, as it was the first record I ever bought, at age 4.  Time flies.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:25 | 6118903 saints51
saints51's picture

Crude was horrendous setting up for an epic fall. The elite are creating an intentional bubble sucking in bulls one more time.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:35 | 6118934 IntercoursetheEU
IntercoursetheEU's picture

Keltner, Monday is a holiday. But there may be the silver lining. Negative sentiment is submerged, and in the truncated low volume week upcoming, the 'sell in May' mantra could begin to resonate like Tesla's NY apartment. I have some VXX. Darkest before the dawn.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:42 | 6118967 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Thanks for the info, always wondered why my orders never filled on Memorial Day :)

Agree with much of what you say, I think machines' goal this week, to be completed tomorrow if Yellen doesn't spill her shrimp cocktail, was to hit the Daily tops on the channels for which my handle is named in the major indices.  Next week, the battle will be waged at these levels between algos wanting to use institutional shorts waiting there to propel us higher, like a space ship getting a boost from Jupiter's gravity, and those finally moving from net long to short as a strategy, perhaps some of the major hedgies.  Make your popcorn now.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:46 | 6118985 saints51
saints51's picture

WHats your setting for Keltner channels. I run a 50/2 bollinger band with volume. Thats it. Just watch it and price action. Have a few buddies always telling me to check out Keltner channels. Just never messed with them enough.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:56 | 6119016 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Try a period of 20 (which puts a useful 20 EMA in the center) and a multiplier/deviation of 2.0.  More often than not, you'll see an about-face at these levels, or the nearest pivot or half-pivots, especially hourly charts (and also 'fractally' in other time frames, depending on the day's range)

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 17:21 | 6119095 saints51
saints51's picture

Sweet. Thanks for the details. Will look at it. Always willing to see if something works with my style.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 18:00 | 6119222 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

Not a bad bet. To the moon or to hell - Vxx is the winner. Someone needs to poke the market with a sharp stick to start the party.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 16:57 | 6119018 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

No way not gonna see price shocks and perhaps some pretty impressive riot activity now in my view.

 

Interest rates need to be at least 4% in my view...as in like...RIGHT NOW.

 

Any who...just another day in Jewish Paradise.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 17:10 | 6119044 fremannx
fremannx's picture

A lot of good charts in this article. But there is one chart they didn't show and that is the divergence between the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports. According to Charles Dow, when the Transports fail to confirm the Utilities, the stock market is about to reverse direction in a big way. That is the case today. Yesterday the Utilities made a new high on the same day the Transports made a new low on record low volume. That is classic divergent behavior. The Dow Theory of non-confirmation is predicting a stock market crash. 

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dow-jones-industrial-averageelliott-w...

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 17:10 | 6119056 Sick
Sick's picture

This fits perfectly with everything else in the rest of the world.  Down=Up, Tyranny=Freedom, etc.  you get the picture, it is not opposite day.... it is opposite life. 

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 17:12 | 6119069 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Low volume?

DAT'S BULLISH!!!

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 17:14 | 6119073 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

How is anyone still surprised by this?  Whats not to understand?

 

If you think the economy as we once knew it is finished and never coming back (all signs point to this) then buy stocks with both hands and as much leverage as you can get cause we are going higher into perpetuity.    

 

If you think we are turning the corner and this is indeed the summer of recovery then sure, sell stocks.

 

On an index level its really that simple and the second option has about the same probability of occurrence as tomorrows opening print in the SPX being below 1900, maybe even less (00.12% is the actual probability of that happening as of right this moment btw)

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 17:15 | 6119080 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

alright, something is really fucked up here.

 

we all know there are no more ''markets'' anymore, but this entire week, i feel on daily basis, the dow has been trading within a 30 pt range the entire day. so basically from 930-4, the dow is trading maybe 0.10 pct pt moves, and the s&p aa well.

 

i have never seen something so strange before like this, its one thing if it was a one day thing, but everyday now?

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 17:25 | 6119110 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

this fake shit.. reminds me of 2007-08' again...

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 17:40 | 6119147 Stlouiemike
Stlouiemike's picture

Classic case of Distribution 101, when you have billions to unload you trible it out a little at a time, so as not to spook the sheep.  Once done, short short short moar.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 20:53 | 6119642 starman
starman's picture

The #1 illusion must be maintained for the good of the earth! 

USA = #1...?

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 20:56 | 6119648 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

The fact that the leading 2016 presidential candidate should be in prison for NUMEROUS felonies says it all about what they've done to this country

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