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Chicago Fed Contracts For 4th Month In A Row As Initial Jobless Claims Hover Near 40 Year Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Initial claims rose very modestly this week but the smoother 4-week average hit fresh cycle lows at 271k - just shy of the lowest level since 1973. Continuing claims also fell to new cycle lows at their lowest since 2000. It appears, as we have noted previously, that peak job-related cost-cutting has been achieved. However, it's not all unicorns and ponies... as Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator printed a disappointing -0.15, the 4th month in a row of contraction.

Jobless data says everything is awesome...

 

 

But Chicago Fed says all is not well...

 

 

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, was unchanged at –0.12 in April. Thirty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 47 made negative contributions. Forty-six indicators improved from March to April, while 37 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 19 made negative contributions.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 05/21/2015 - 08:47 | 6116821 This is it
This is it's picture

Every event is a good excuse for...

HAMMER TIME!!

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 08:53 | 6116841 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Jobless Claims Hover Near 40 Year Lows

 

93 million Americans are so greatful for that stat.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 08:59 | 6116861 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

They must be so appreciative of having been relieved of the burden of work.  Now they can go write that novel they've always wanted to try, or do charity work (feeding their own family), or take a Yoga class.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 09:15 | 6116929 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

Selling paper gold and buying stawks on every newz announcement, regardless, is doing god's work.

Says so in the Torah.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 09:49 | 6117027 Arnold
Arnold's picture

New Maff vs  simple arithmetic.

Caged death match.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 09:17 | 6116930 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

My question is, how are these people surviving? 

Easy, my parents retirement community is filled with 40 year olds living with mom and dad, that's how.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 09:51 | 6117035 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Fine Young Cannibals will soon be providing the mood music.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 11:05 | 6117309 WhyWait
WhyWait's picture

Barry,

I was asked that question on the radio last week, and had to answer that to my knowledge there are no good statistics on where the missing 92 million are. I pointed to the rapid increase in the disabled population, driven by people getting a medical diagnosis for their very understandable depression and anxiety and those who are disabled but would be working anyway if they could count on anyone hiring them, but that accounts for only a part of the 92 million. Beyond that I shared some anecdotes, but all I could say statistically was that if the death rates aren't being massively underreported they're out there.   

If you could document what's going on in your parents' retirement community and put a number on it - say, 50 elderly housing units housing 70 elderly and 17 adult children - it would be contribution.  

Not easy, because doubtless they are at risk of losing their homes or subsidies if they get found out. But if you can figure out how, I will add it to my bag of "anonymous micro-statistics" - or "statistical anecdotes" - which begins now.

 

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 08:47 | 6116823 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Chicago is the world capital of consulting companies.

Chicago is the home of the great Kennedy vote swindle.

Chicago is or is close to the murder capital of the US.

Chicago is home to th echicago school of conmen.

Ergo, nothing good comes from chicago. Even wriggleys make you chew the cud.

All fall down....humpty...

Are you ready?

https://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2015/05/21/are-you-ready/

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 08:57 | 6116852 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Don't forget hostage taking, they will never have enough money to repay that one.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 08:59 | 6116858 Tasty Sandwich
Thu, 05/21/2015 - 09:14 | 6116924 Budnacho
Budnacho's picture

The Sausage King of Chicago?.....

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 08:51 | 6116825 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Your daily awesome ration has been increased to four hallelujahs. All hail Big Brother.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 09:11 | 6116917 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

How many "Yes We Cans" are we limited too?

 

Cause once I start, I just can't stop.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 10:42 | 6117232 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

As many as you can squeeze into the Two Minutes Yes We Can.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 08:49 | 6116826 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

It was always going this way, waiting for the bottom to fall out after dismal Christmas sales, maybe this time is the one.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 10:09 | 6117099 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

amazing how long they can extend and pretend

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 08:53 | 6116842 JD59
JD59's picture

Chicago is BANKRUPT morally & financially!

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 08:56 | 6116850 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Ahahahahaha!  No one believes anything or anyone from Chicago!

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 08:58 | 6116853 Lady Jessica
Lady Jessica's picture

I like it when the Tyler's chart initial/continuing claims against the S&P500.  The inverse correlation is awesome.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 10:11 | 6117109 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

that right there is the very heart of the propaganda machine

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 09:14 | 6116912 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

92 million unemployed but the UE Rate shows full employment - GNP calculation in process of being changed - double seasonal adjustment - to show robust growth - Factory Utilitzation Rates will go up as the factories that are permanently closed are no longer counted in Utilization Rate %.

and the Fed buys the S & P Index at the margin at 3:45 PM each day to keep the market up permanently to reflect the Fake Metrics

The perfect artifical virtual economy.....forever!

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 10:37 | 6116941 oudinot
oudinot's picture

Inital jobless claims are now absolutely useless.

As we know most of the jobs created in the last 6 years are part time jobs.  People need a couple or three of them to keep bread on the table.  So when one of these part time jobs are laid off the person still has another job so the layoff isn't reflected in the data as the person is technically not employed as they have another job so they are not counted in intial job calims.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 09:22 | 6116948 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

Just wondering, is bad still good?  

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 09:30 | 6116964 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Bad is good and good is good ! What could possibly go wrong? BTFD !

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 09:35 | 6116976 frankly scarlet
frankly scarlet's picture

you may lower your marginal costs to the last penny as every other producer might as well, but you will not have an economy with consumers willing and able to buy your product in volumes enough to keep you in business. Now if your business is the derivatives market then a single asset class such as sovereign debt will fuel positions to reach the stars and all the rest doesn't matter one bit.

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 09:56 | 6117051 starman
starman's picture

Please go down to your local HDepot or grocery  store every  other day and you'll  find the answer  to who works how. much they work and how old they are!

I can't  give this away you have to see yourslef!

 

I do find it sad and pathetic.

Fuck you Berry! 

 

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 10:27 | 6117167 Bone Nower
Bone Nower's picture

Progress is proceeding full speed ahead to eliminate the windows and bars on the ground floor of the Chicago Fed and brick them in. 

 

 

Thu, 05/21/2015 - 11:20 | 6117391 Billy Bob101
Billy Bob101's picture

Look at the brght side:  The good news is that when no one is working, there won't be any more jobless claims!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!