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Tick Tock, The Greek Time Bomb Is About To Go Off

Secular Investor's picture




 

Greece Troika

We were warning in several previous articles (here & here) the Greeks didn’t have much time left to enter into a new funding agreement with its lenders as the country was facing several billions of euros in mandatory repayments over the next few weeks.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has estimated Greece has until June 5th before it runs out of any money, so the leaders of Greece, the EU and the Eurozone have two more weeks to make the final tranche of 7.2B EUR of emergency funding available, or the consequences might be disastrous.

Tsipras Merkel

The negotiations to make the 7B+ EUR available have been ongoing for several weeks, if not months, and the parties involved in the negotiations haven’t even come close to reaching a deal. Athens was already running on fumes and directed its public institutions to send their cash back to the central government to meet some shorter term payment obligations. On top of that, the government is mulling over instating a transaction tax on cash withdrawals and wire transfers, and several sources indicate this will happen in the short term.

The thing is, it might be too late.

Late last night, a meeting between France, Germany and Greece came to an abrupt end after the parties once again failed to come to some sort of agreement on the terms to make the additional emergency financing accessible for Greece. The main issue right now are the pensions and a sales tax in the country as the Eurozone representatives are forcing Greece to find new ways to cut expenses and increase its income. We aren’t sure the Greeks are unreasonable as its sales tax rate is already at a very high level of 23% after increasing it from 19% in 2010 (see next image).

Greece sales tax

Source: Tradingeconomics.com

But whoever is playing hardball during the negotiations, the clock just does not stop ticking and the fact that no follow-up meeting has been scheduled yet is really worrisome. A break-up of the Eurozone no longer is a remote possibility and this scenario should not be taken lightly. The bond market seems to be agreeing as even though the Greek 10 year bond yield is just over 11%, the market consensus is expecting the yield to increase to in excess of 14% by the end of this year.

An additional emergency meeting will now undoubtedly be needed as the next regular meeting is only scheduled for June 18th, two weeks after Athens is expected to run out of funds.

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Fri, 05/22/2015 - 17:01 | 6122866 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Greece should dump the EU, they're terminal, no more trade treaties and cartels and contracts with the state, just trade with individuals. 

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 23:43 | 6123739 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

Greece should dump Greece.  Henceforth, all Grecian citizens will become non-citizens of Greece or the EU, hence not liable for Grecian debt.  A non-nation full of debt-free individuals can then face the world on vastly different terms.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 16:57 | 6122853 new game
new game's picture

by one get one free, 1/2 off of 400 percent mark up. here poly, here poly, give me a check for life and i'll vote for you, on and on. peoples weakness is truely something for nothing. coupon clipping fools. less is moar including not voting...

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 15:45 | 6122628 new game
new game's picture

remove the "something for nothing" chromosome and humans might have a chance of not repeating the same shit over and over. here doggie roll over in your own shit for a treat, fucken-eh, lol...

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 15:52 | 6122648 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Most people would rather work than take a hand-out; what we see is propaganda and you seem to have bought into the lie.  I hope not.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 16:30 | 6122788 crisrose
crisrose's picture

You must not get out much...

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 16:15 | 6122736 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Where are these Most people you speak of, and where exactly do they hail from?

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 15:42 | 6122612 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

What is really bad & sad is that a 23% sales tax is being paid for by the "honest" people and we live in an age where "honesty" is considered immoral...so everyone compromises.  It is not too different, the latter, in the US as it is in Greece and the rest of the world for that matter.  People have compromised on morality so much, that immorality is now the "new norm", but in the end it will cost them their lives.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 14:06 | 6122243 GoldenDonuts
GoldenDonuts's picture

The breakup of the euro zone had never been a "remote possibility".  It has been an absolute certainty.  The bankers and politicians have to extract every last cent that they can however first.  So the play continues.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 13:49 | 6122165 Amy G. Dala
Amy G. Dala's picture

Sheesh.  If you only collect say 25% of taxes owed, then simply raise taxes 400%. Problem solved.

Do I have to think of everything?

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 15:46 | 6122632 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Many people in Greece do business on a cash basis and avoid the sales taxes, which puts the burden on the "honest" people.  You can only push that group so far before they to compromise on "honesty"; something once coveted in the US and no longer is, even among the general population.  We are leaving our children totally exposed because we have compromised moral values in exchange for lies and we elect those who do the same.  May God take pity on many.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 16:16 | 6122743 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Which god? There are so many.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 12:21 | 6121798 Md4
Md4's picture

Again...

Greece is broke, and has little in the way of sustainable means to grow its GDP. It would make no difference if the latest round of aid was disbursed; they will be in the same position when that runs out...

The world has been separating into a few with means, and the vast rest struggling to get by with a very tumultuous future dead ahead. It is the same with nations as it is with individuals, as the one is the sum of the other. We won't get better, because we can't; an old global socioeconomic system of the west and the rest was fatally damaged by years of corporate outsourcing, that all the central bank/government aid games cannot overcome. A mere 330+ billion euros owed by Greece, within the context of a strong and prosperous EU, wouldn't even be an issue. Except the EU is neither strong nor prosperous.

Neither is the rest of the west, including US.

Once again: shortsighted western corporate outsourcing fatally damaged an old, postwar system of western commerce and finance. The world opened up vast new resources of labor and prospective consumption.

The labor drove wages and employment opportunities down, and therefore, consumption down too. Without new and better replacements for the western incomes lost (new discoveries, new industries, new jobs), the consumption-dependent, now-global economy, is collapsing. IT CANNOT BE SALVAGED WITH MONETARY POLICY, OR CORPORATE ACTION TO MANIPULATE SHARE PRICES. GOVERNMENT DEBT, ABSENT A FULL ADMISSION OF THE PROBLEM, AND DIRECTED AT NEW SOLITIONS, IS POINTLESS, AND ULTIMATELY TOXIC. IT EXACERBATES THE PROBLEM--IT CANNOT SOLVE IT.

Greece is an acute microcosm of this global mess. It is a more rapidly-acting version of what's in store for the rest of us if we do not start discussing the real problem, and to begin, with REAL leadership, to bring the world together to hammer out new solutions.

THAT is the real clock ticking, and we seem to be as deaf as we are obstinate.

m

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 15:50 | 6122644 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

I believe the game is to kick the "Greek can" down the road to delay addressing the same situation that exists in Italy, Spain and Portugal before "they" are ready for the massive overhaul coming.  This will be a clear indication of just how close we are to the reset.  We better hope for divine intervention, but I do not think God should or will except for His own, which are already in good hands.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 16:19 | 6122751 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

"We better hope for divine intervention, but I do not think God should or will except for His own, which are already in good hands."

Such religous nonsense only makes you look childish and ignorant.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 10:09 | 6121288 basho
basho's picture

did i miss anything here.

same shit different wrapper.

mutti merkel has got her hands full with the NSA/BND fiasco.

it would be nice to have her out but there is really no one in DE that could take over.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 09:56 | 6121225 theliberalliberal
theliberalliberal's picture

That is the most useless graph I have ever seen.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 09:50 | 6121197 pndr4495
pndr4495's picture

Truth will always find its way to the surface - and the truth is that since the time of the compilation of the scriptures there developed a belief that usury was immoral and thus illegal. How's about some C.S. Lewis on this: " Now it may not absolutely follow that we are wrong. Some people say that when Moses and Aristotle and the Christians agreed in forbidding interest (or 'usury' as they called it), they could not foresee the joint stock company, and were only thinking of the private money-lenders, and that, therefore, we need not bother about what they said. That is a question I cannot decide on. I am not an economist and I simply do not know whether the investment system is respnsible for the state we are in or not." - MERE CHRISTIANITY , page 85. It is worth noting that Lewis first said that in the mid 1940s. Clearly, few , if anybody, took the advice of the ancients.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 09:23 | 6121111 Watson
Watson's picture

>>>
Tick Tock, The Greek Time Bomb Is About To Go Off
<<<

Not while Merkel can throw more German taxpayer EUR's at the problem...

Watson

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 09:15 | 6121062 Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

 

The sound of summer, Eurotrash leaders putting the screws to the Greeks. Whatever they all say a Greek exit is a big unknown and the fact that Spain, Portugal and most importantly Italy are likely to follow.

But lets be honest the EU Elite are a a group of lying, theiving crooks. Which would be fine but they are also as dumb as fuck.

It is on that rock that they will perish, stupidly thinking that they control both destiny and fate. I look forward to that day with joy in my heart.

 

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 09:05 | 6121014 Dumgoy
Dumgoy's picture

Nothing gonna happen while those in power still have printing presses with ink, that's the bigger picture.  It's all just theater for the Goy to lend credibility to the scam, and keep you entertained instead of addressing the real issue, who it is (names) that stole your fucking money and future?

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 09:01 | 6121007 w a l k - a w a y
w a l k - a w a y's picture

Take Hugo Salinas Price's advice:

 

Letter to Alexis Tsipras from Hugo Salinas Price, Dated July 25, 2012 

 

"It will be only by giving Greeks a silver coin in parallel with the Drachma, that you and your Party may gradually lead Greece to fiscal equilibrium."

 

<crickets>

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 08:49 | 6120949 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

A break-up of the Eurozone no longer is a remote possibility

Phew.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 09:40 | 6121156 Bush Baby
Bush Baby's picture

Greece Exit is over rated. I think long term it would be Bullish.

The drama and suspense leading up to the event is worse than the outcome ( for the EEC anyway )

If you took a vote 80% of Europeans would be happy to throw them out.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 08:49 | 6120947 Prober
Prober's picture

Soon the corrupt degenerate thieving socialist parasite greek vermin will get the misery they deserve - YIPPPEEEEE!!!!

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 08:54 | 6120971 Bdelande
Bdelande's picture

This entire situation has a lot more to do with the abuses of Corporatocracy then the obvious deficiencies of Socialism. 

 

Get with the program clown.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 10:59 | 6121488 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

As a European, I'm not proud of my European leaders. But the Greek certainly have no cause to be proud of their consecutive governments either, including this one. Some serious soul searching is required on both sides.

And this mess just goes to show you once more: if you're responsible for a family, don't count on anyone else but yourself to act responsibly and keep your partner and kids safe and out of harm's way, because nobody else gives a shit but you

That has been my only guideline since 2008.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 11:50 | 6121727 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Yeah, Greece was a flaming mess from the start, but the EU countries helped them cook their books greatly. There's no winners in this one, just a matter of how big everybody will lose...

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 14:58 | 6122443 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

I suggest the debt levels were promoted as a means of final collapse and world currency from the Tribe(tm). It may not be going as smoothly as planned. I do not believe the debt levels exist as a "spending accident", the real controllers allow and promoted it. If they don't create the debt then they never get the control and the eventual "restructure" as they like it. Just sayin'.

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 09:13 | 6121056 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

One hand washes the other, as it were...

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 11:15 | 6121563 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Most people never noticed that during the last round of 'austerity' that most of the EU bail-out money went right back to EU banks and that the Greek bonds were redone as 'no-haircut' for the bondholders (the EU banks). Greece will be destroyed as a functioning country if they stay in the EU, but leaving would leave them worse than dead broke. The suck is going to be huge, one way or another....

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 14:50 | 6122418 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

I don't get any of this, how can you have vacations for cheap of you don't have sunny/poor countries nearby. What exactly is the problem? 

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 15:25 | 6122553 Manthong
Manthong's picture

The last time I was in Greece the Germans didn't own much there.

I guess the good thing is that as you could not move Pebble Beach to Tokyo, you cannot move the Acropolis to Berlin.

 

Fri, 05/22/2015 - 18:35 | 6123118 PhoQ
PhoQ's picture

But you can move London Bridge to Arizona. Even if there's no water left to run under it.

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