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Time To Get Real About China
Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
The present Chinese leadership appears to be trying to gain (regain?) more -if not full- control over the country’s economic system, while at the same time (re-)boosting the growth it has lost in recent years.
President Xi Jinping, prime minister Li Keqiang and all of their subservient leaders – there are 1000′s of those in a 1.4 million citizens country- apparently think this can be done. Yours truly doubts it.
As I’ve repeatedly said over the past years, I don’t think that they ever understood what would happen if they opened up the country to a more free-market, capitalist structure. That doing so would automatically reduce their political power, since a free market, in whatever shape and form, does not rhyme with the kind of control which the Communist Party has been used to for decades, and which the current leaders have grown up taking for granted.
I don’t think they’re fools or anything, just that their -preconceived- ideas of power don’t rhyme with the kind of economy Beijing, starting with Deng Xiao Ping, has created. In particular, they have allowed other segments of society to accumulate great wealth, and with wealth comes power.
And in fine Pandora’s Box fashion, it’s very hard, if not impossible, to reverse the process. This failure to grasp to what extent these ‘market liberation’ policies have had a Sorcerer’s Apprentice effect, may, if not must, lead to utter chaos and worse…
A closely related failure is that the rulers have allowed the shadow banking system to grow to ginormous proportions. Likely, in their eyes this ‘merely’ helped the economy grow at double digit speed for years, and they could stop it at will. But something else was growing along with it: the power of the shadow banks -and the people behind them-, both economic and political. Which is not acceptable in a one party rules all system.
And so there is a crackdown going on, presented as ‘reform’, and shadow bank loans have indeed diminished. But that is hurting the economy much more than it heals it. And so measures are reversed on the fly.
The official line is that China has to become a more consumer based economy, if only because exports are not what they used to be, due to lower living standards in the major customer economies in the western world.
The first part of the private citizens’ segment of this shift was the housing boom. Though the Chinese are traditionally strong savers, certainly compared to for instance Americans, they did borrow a lot, got into debt, to fund their real estate purchases. The first part of the problem is that not exactly all of that was borrowed from ‘official’ banks. The second is that home prices are now falling in most cities.
The Chinese are not only known as savers, they’re also notorious gamblers. That accounts for a substantial part of the housing boom, but it accounts even more for what came when that boom started fainting: stock market insanity. A craze that was fully encouraged by Beijing. As Bloomberg put it the other day:
[..] government officials and state media have encouraged the rally. China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported last week that the advance in stocks has further to go, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission has said that market gains reflect support for the economy.
Private investors, grandmas and teenage granddaughters, still believe Beijing controls the whole game. They undoubtedly must also think Xi and Li will make the housing sector rise from its ashes. This is a huge risk for the Communist Party. But they must have the illusion that they got it down. Government and citizens all believe.
The past few days have seen 2 notable companies, Hanergy Thin Film Solar and real estate/electronics conglomerate Goldin Group, lose about half their market cap within a day, for a total loss of some $50 billion. In Hanergy’s case, it reportedly took less than half an hour. And yesterday, Joyou, a Chinese branch of German bathroom giant Grohe, went straight from $400 million to just about zero.
It looks like all Beijing has left in its arsenal is extend and pretend. The question is, does it have the gunpowder to do that? While tons of people habitually point to Beijing’s $4 trillion stock of US treasuries, they may not be a cure-all.
The same people might want to consider to what extent the Chinese growth ‘miracle’ has been funded by debt. By the printing press. And while they’re at it, they may want to ponder what’s going to happen to that debt, now growth has started sputtering.
There seems to be a consensus that Chinese debt is somewhere in the range of $28 trillion, which is almost twice US GDP, and almost three times Chinese GDP. And for all we know the debt may be much higher still. All we really have is official numbers, plus a few ‘indirect’ data. One thing we do know is that Beijing will always make everything look better than it is. Every politician does.
And we know that they have a substantial series of issues to deal with. In fact, there are so many it’s impossible to catch them all in one comprehensive essay. China’s not nearly as simple as Greece. Let’s try a few:
- China’s housing boom is deflating, with prices down up to 6% YoY in many places, though of course for now less severe in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai. As one comment said recently, paraphrased: ‘there are no more buyers, everyone around here already owns property.’
- China is in the grip of a stock mania, with millions who are losing out on their apartment investments trying to make up for their losses with stocks. Many borrow heavily for their ‘profits’ (and not always from official banks). The stock mania is already popping as well. It will probably rise a bit more at times and at places, but exchanges that skyrocket when economies flatline or worse, will be smacked down by fundamentals at some point. That is true on Wall Street and in Europe, and it’s also true in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen.
IPO’s are falling out of the deep blue skies like so many frogs, and people seem to think there’s all this pent-up demand for them, but the Hanergy and Goldin examples should serve as huge red lights flashing. And besides: what does pent-up demand mean when people borrow substantial parts of credit used for stock purchases?
When you read that at the Shenzhen exchange, rallies of more than 500% aren’t unusual, and the 103 stocks listed trade at an average 375 times reported earnings, you should know you’re looking at an ordinary slot machine, not an exchange that reflects any underlying real economy.
- Local governments are heavily in debt to the shadow banking system. Their liabilities may well exceed $6 trillion The crack down on the latter does not change that. Beijing has introduced a swap system, where paper can be swapped for bonds of much longer maturity at lower rates, but that leaves the question of who’s going to pay the debt to the shadow system.
Do local governments now need to borrow more from state banks just to pay off their loans to the shadow banking system? Or are the state banks themselves going to pay the debt after the swap? Or is perhaps the PBoC itself going to pay off the shadow banks directly? It looks as if the swap measures, which are pretty absurd in themselves since they encourage more borrowing, do not -or hardly at all- involve the ‘shadow debt’.
- Chinese factory activity is contracting. This is not growth slowing down, this is negative growth. Chinese consumers don’t help to avoid this, because they’re not consuming. They are doing one of three things: pay off housing -margin- debt as prices are falling, go nuts for stocks, or they are saving. No consumer based society is in sight.
- Capital outflow was $159 billion in Q1. This should be a major worry for Beijing. It hurts China’s international financial position. The country’s also stuck in its US dollar peg, and it dare not risk get out because of the potential losses on its Treasurys holdings. It’s all nice and stuff that the IMF considers including the yuan into its SDR basket, but it’s not a one way street to glory, or to the demise of the USD as some would have you think, for that matter.
Meanwhile, China keeps investing billions abroad. Untold billions in Africa. $50 billion in Brazil to damage the Amazon even more, $60 billion in the new Silk Road project.
But where does that money come from? Why is there so little scrutiny of that? Why do we all allow the Chinese to purchase our homes and our land and our industries, and make them all more expensive for ourselves?
Given that $28 trillion debt load, how is this not monopoly money, and why couldn’t we just as easily print that ourselves?
Is this a sign of how great the Chinese economy is, or is it perhaps a sign of how awful our own economies are really doing, and how indebted we are compared to Beijing? Is it because they caused our manufacturing sectors to all but vanish? How and why can a country blow a $28 trillion+ debt bubble in a decade and proceed to use that debt to buy the world? What does that say about that world?
As for China itself, and the losses on homes and stocks that are in the offing, I’ve long been on record stating I can’t see how it will not descent into civil war, and I still don’t. As I said above, Beijing never understood what forces it unleashed when it started ‘freeing’ its market, and from what I can see, it still doesn’t.
Or maybe it has, and got too scared to call a halt to what’s happening. That recent sudden permission for all 1.4 billion Chinese to open 20 stock trading accounts may be an act of desperation, as it came when real estate prices started tanking. But Xi and Li still must know, and fear, what awaits them if and when those stocks and apartments start their descent into hell.
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"a free market, in whatever shape and form, does not rhyme with the kind of control which the Communist Party has been used to for decades"
Oh, bullshit. If you don't think billionaires act with the same unilateral approach as the committee, you're fucking nuts.
Lately I have read an awful lot about how great the Chinese are at planning, and how they think much more about the long game than the west. It’s no surprise that the reforms toward capitalism would help the Chinese, but their central planning didn’t work out very well while attempting communism, and it probably won’t work very well under their new fascist scheme either. Sure they are acquiring gold and gold assets and making some other prudent choices, but it is still more centrally planned than the US (granted we’re moving in the wrong direction) and historically that has not worked out so well.
I have my doubts about the Chinese; I certainly have never seen more misallocated resources via a credit created bubble.
Free market is inefficent and unjust, the Chinese are better than that.
Remember, it is the Chinese who invented paper and paper money. And it is the Chinese who will lead us out of a monied world of wage slavery.
So what modern planned economy do you hold up as an example of your theory, are the Chinese the only one? Are you a fan of the Soviet Union of the Mid to late 20th over the US, North Korea over South? East Germany over West?
Yes it was the Chinese who invented paper money and every time they tried to use it it ended in failure. Please elaborate.
Who's the idiot who wrote this bullshit?
The "reality" about China is you can not trust any of their numbers.
So China's popultaion shrank to 1.4 Million? Shit, that was some genocide........
agreed... the article is incredibly light on actual research...
basically... 'china has a lot of debt (with no detail of what kind in any way)'... 'china has a stock market boom (still undervaled relative to the US' and... a bunch of veiled nationalism about being cynical about chinese investing in africa, boosting western housing values in california and vancouver...
pretty laughable article. and I even agree that at least half of what he says COULD happen. but i have no fucking idea if it actually will because it's hard to be sure, where as he seems to believe it just... uh... because... i guess
LOL Chinese "leading" us out of slavery?????
WTF man! The Chinese had slaves long before Christ was an infant. Slaves are the pillar of their economic success.
If they have such awesome 400 year plans, was getting punked by the fag ass British just part of a centuries-long clever ruse?
All I know is, the Panda Express near my house is always packed.
Stopped reading at '... in a 1.4 million citizens country...'
Ahh, having just seen that the article was wrote by someone named 'Meijer' I can now fully understand your gross miscalculation when it comes to 'numbers of people'!
I stopped reading way before that.....hence missed the million.....LOLOLOLOL...
1.357 billion (2013)
China, Population (2013)
Income Distribution
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rj...
China will push it's economy until it begins to seriously unravel, then off to war(s) to take the peoples minds off their troubles which will be blamed on whatever enemy(ies) seems necessary. This make take a decade or so but in the mean time their foreign invesments, land purchases, land creation will allow them to grow like dollar weed/kudzu and soon they will be everywhere. How to stop/divert this possibility is the questions of the day.
if you take out the word China and replace it with USSA, then you'd be 100% correct but at this point your idea is a complete whiff
I hate American imperialism as much as everyone else here but what I hate more is Chinese imperialism.
Chinese don't take prisoners when it comes down to it.
The plague of Chinese money flooding the world should have been stopped long ago. My advise to North American or European entrepreneurs and manufacturers is plain and simple, don't sell (out) to the Chinese.
Too late anyway... we need to regroup.
If I'm correct in my understanding of the moneychanger's age old mandate, then they will drain the system soon completely to expose the Chinese economic and financial fraud before the Chinese take over and expose theirs. The moneychangers will hurt us, possibly risk hurting themselves to protect the control and power.
Maybe the plan was all along to get the Chinese to reduce their holdings of UST before they raise rates and we work harder to funnel more wealth to China.
The Yids don't like the Chinese and that may just be our saving grace.
I think the Chinese are taking a huge gamble buying property outside of Chine. They'll lose everything if there are hostilities. as I believe the foreign states will sieze all their assets they can get their hands on, and that may well be a part of the reason for the recent provocation by the US, which is likely to escalate in the near future. War probably looks like a good option to the Chinese leaders and US leaders alike. Both of whom, I'm sure, are willing to kill everybody on the planet before they give up one iota of power and are facing almost insurmountable domestic problems and increasing sullen and dissatisfied populations at home. The US is, at present, in worse shape than China on this point, but are probably better prepared. China still may be in a position to buy their populations off. China, on the other hand has a huge number of young men with no hope of ever finding spouses or having families of their own and they need to cull this herd. If Russia is smart it will stay out of this at least until the very end. This time they could end up the last man standing and assume the US role after WWII of banker to the world
China has gold, manufacturing, a young population, and nations who wish to trade with it. China will be fine.
US on the other hand... not so much.
As long as they can guillotine a few oligarchs they will retain power and everything will be fine.
The same argument could be made about the US. We still have plenty of resources and access to resources, we are still scientific and technological leaders in the world, we still have a great university and research laboratory system, and we have the best educated, most experienced, most highly trained and cross-trained army of the unemployed in the history of the planet. As with China, with a few different twists, our barriers lie in our political economy.
But those barriers are real. Real people with real wealth, power, privilege, organized to advance, protect, justify and defend their positions. And populations with very different experiences, beliefs, expectations and organization struggling to make the system work for them too. At this level the differences between the US and China are much greater - and very interesting.
The elites, political and economic, in both countries are facing the same catastrophic global breakdown of the system we call capitalism, but from very different positions in it. Neither has an answer. In the short run the problems, responses and dynamics can be very different - based on different social structures, histories, belief systems and relationships to the international banking system and to each other.
In a slightly longer time frame, China is headed toward one or the other of two possible final states: a new revolution or complete destruction. And at this time-scale once again, our situations are not so very different.
leading scientific and rechnology leaders . hahahah whatever helps you mate .
Don't be an idiot. China is first and foremost an imperialistic power. We trade with them because of greed and sell outs. They trade with us to take over and impose their fraud on us.
Do you speak either Cantonese or Mandarin? Better start learning now. Your kids and grandkids will be the slaves working on a Chinese plantation. They have no room for us otherwise.
I don't think "imperialistic" means what you think it means. In case I'm wrong and you know what it means and have simply misapplied it, please compare the actions of the US and China since 1990 and then tell us all which is the imperialist.
Try and close the door on China then and see what will happen. Just because they don't put military in your country, doesn't mean they don't have boots on the ground everywhere. They had spies in North America and Europe for decades now. Then came the "investors" who buy up entire factories with registered trademarks and patents. Wait, I forgot the time when they reverse engineered a bunch of stuff and basically stole the IP.
What the US needs to do is bringing Russia back into the fold. We need Russia as our ally against China. That's the only chance we got in controlling the flow of resources to China. They are pretty much grabbing Africa right from under our eyes as we speak.
You think whatever works for you but I do not want my offspring to be slaves under the Chinese. No fucking way. You see how they treat their own citizens. You are "gweilo" to them. That is way worse than being a "goyim".
You left out the part about them being imperialistic.
The US has spies everywhere as well, don't they (NSA, CIA, USAID, etc...not to mention all of the military bases spread throughout the world like the Roman Empire. Hmmmm....empire...imperialist)
As for them "buying up" stuff everywhere, I think that's a much more capitalistic way of doing business than simply invading the nation and taking everything by force like the West did to Asia, Africa, and, well...just about everywhere (did you really think all of the Western wealth was accumulated by honest businessmen and politicians "buying" resources?)
You're kind of failing in making your case here.
We could go on for hours.
The bottom line is this:
Are you so much an enemy of Pax Americana that you prefer the Chinese version of whatever that may look like?
When Pax Americana falls, it will have far reaching consequences and as for myself, I would rather sleep with the enemy I know.
I'm a white male with European descent. I know the Chinese have no love for me or my family when it comes right down to it. They're a racist culture. Come to think of it, I know they don't love anyone besides their own people and even that is with much prejudice.
Pick your poison.
I get it...you're just scared that the global chickens are coming home to roost and you are on the wrong side of the genetic pool. It's not too late to learn a new language, make a few friends, and adapt to your environment.
We just need to make sure their chickens are coming home to roost before ours do. I think we're on the right track again.
Sure...let's just destroy an ancient culture because they threaten your worldview. What's a billion poor souls if it means you can stroll around your 'hood without being annoyed by anyone who doesn't look and talk like you?
hey, I'm not taking a crap on their turf. Did you know Chinese take craps on sidewalks and use their own crap to fertilize their own gardens? crazy.
Sorry, your ancestors took a huge crap on their soil. Your complaint is not with the modern day Chinese but with your colonizing great-grandfathers. You should consider how life is not linear and, in the end, all debts will be paid and all scores will be settled. Of course, you can do what you will to delay that but it only means your children will have to face it. You're okay with dumping that on your kids, right?
False. Who took a crap on Chinese soil? Ever?
Dude? Seriously? Read some history. You can start with the opium wars and go where that leads you. If you do more than a quick glance you will discover many European family names that are well-known to you for their great wealth. And that is aside from the official government actions in China.
No one suggested destroying any Chinese culture or population. You created a nonsnese strawman on that,
The suggestion is to not let the unwanted components of Chinese culture and imperialism capture more of the world. If the If the Chinese are required to accept continued pesant status, why should people in other countries agree to be under the same system?
Let's try a little word play.
"The suggestion is to not let the unwanted components of American culture and imperialism capture more of the world."
About this I would agree.
You see, it really is all about perspective. Who are you to determine what about Chinese culture is wanted or unwanted? What gives you the right other than military force? In that sense, you will probably have to destroy the culture, or most of it including the parts that are determined to resist being destroyed, to satisfy yourself.
It never occurs to you to compete with the Chinese in the conventional sense of the word? Are you so afraid you will lose that you have to make sure they never get the opportunity to climb out of their "peasant status?" Who, then, is determined to keep them peasants?
i like the story of the eunich Muslim admiral and his journeys - admirable indeed, like the US Navy white ship tour (not the black ship tour). it is likely the Chinese reached the Americas on his journey long before the Italian Columbus (either with the Admiral or on other voyages as per evidence on the west coast of North America.)
No doubt that the Anglos and other Europs ran the tables in the Imperialism casino for the past few hundred years, but China has a long history of stepping on nieghbors. Just ask the neighbors. I have and I always enjoy the chutzpah of my chinese friends who point out that this or that country or episode in history was not imperialism - always reminds me of Yankees thinking their own country is not involved in the empire game.
Bring it to today. What China is doing in the Spratly Islands - build an island and declare it Chinese territory, move south 400 clicks and do it again. Now that is a new twist on imperial expansion! Innovative, highly risky.
China has:
- a bunch of IOUs from the US
- more pollution than any other industrialized society in history
- Uh, FUCKING COMMUNISM
in relative terms the majority of peasant/ slave chinese live everyday of their lives in a scenario a fat american would equate with some version of SHTF hell. So when the shit really does hit the fan who in the end will survive. Yes exactly, the ones who already toil in shit on a daily basis.
++++
Your point is vitally important, yet is lost on most - primarily because nobody in this nation (U.S.) under the age of 80, has ever known anything even ~remotely~ resembling (Real) economic hardship, let alone political oppression. Oddly enough, the power structure is acutely aware of this - which is why unifying militarization of police forces is taking place at an unprecedented rate, right underneath the nose of Boobus-Americanus, and for the most part he could care less.
wake up-realization day will see a lot of poopy pants
It is a sobering reality to observe the thin veneer of every day existence - what with access to anything/everything one could need on a moments notice, and then begin to think of what a disruption to the distribution chain, via let's say a currency crisis perhaps, would profoundly change people, almost overnight. This isn't 'kook-fringe' stuff either. The American public as a whole, would literally be like a fish-outta-water if even a small slice of their current 'lifestyles' were upended.
New Orleans on a grand scale!! There's not a zombie movie in the world that will come close to the sheer madness. When the gun ships are circling en mass pumping 50 cal into crowds that is the day the USSA is finished and a new century of Gulag Archipeligo will be upon 300 million americans and the elite class will rule with impunity. This will come to pass in our lifetimes.
" ... nobody in this nation (U.S.) under the age of 80, has ever known anything even ~remotely~ resembling (Real) economic hardship ..."
Maybe nobody you know. But if you can write this on ZH you're not paying attention to - or really understanding - what's being posted here about the state of the American working people.
I could run a list, but suffice it to say that US workweeks are the longest in the developed world, and differences in nutrition, public health, housing and access to health care are great enough to show up as third-world live expectancies for the bottom quarter of the population.
When our people are aroused and empowered they will be capable of feats of endurance comparable to those of any Chinese peasant, driven by an anger that burns just as bright.
Empowered...
You lose the internet.
When I see the smug, rich new Chinese, touring around the luxury condo sales or just pretending to be cool sipping a latte...I want to vomit. Like the US: "born on third base and think they hit a triple".
Accidents of history: The US had arable land, navigable rivers, and two oceans separating us from the WW II shitshow. When everything was flat in 1945 of course we forced the world onto a dollar-based standard, and harvested our "exorbitant privilege" for many decades. Everybody else had to make a profit, buy a dollar, only then could they get a barrel of oil or a bushel of wheat. America could just print oil and wheat.
Same deal with the Chinese: accident of history. Billions of peasants grovelling in the mud held apart from the rest of the world economy. Then voila, all those dirt-cheap laborers could be harnessed and they could grab the entire world's manufacturing base. A monkey could have done it.
So Mr. Wang, strolling around my neighborhood in your fucking wannabe cool clothes, pretending to be an actual person, smugly using your accident-of-history dollars to bid up the houses so my kids can never afford them: fuck you.
Hongcouver is definitely out for the kids
Not blaming you in particular but they just follow the lifestyle that has been preached by the very American society in the rest of the world for the past decades. Everywhere I travel around the world I see this behavior and often it's sickening but I know where it originates....
Shut up Gweilo! You go now! No house for you!
Tell your kids to make that latte a Venti and to clean my 6000 sq foot mega mansion with a white toothbrush!
You all work for me now! Soon you vote for me and if you don't vote, I get power anyway!
You go now!
Dunno.
Worked for us.
Everybody gets a turn in the barrel.
Until few years ago, having money was not a problem.....but now when China has too much money...a Frenchman (or a Canadian?) sees it as a problem? huh?
I did not see the Chinese robbing the poor to enrich the megarich! It is infact the opposite in China.....no wonder the whole world is on fire of protests, austerity, bankruptcy, wars, bad debts, EBT cards, food banks, welfare.....yet we dont hear much from inside China....while hundreds of millions of Chinese are not only travelling overseas but also investing overseas.
By allowing Chinese to invest overseas, their Govt is releasing the pressure on their own economy/real estate..... Ever thunk of that?
Where's the money coming from? Corruption and fraud mostly. Insider business transactions. Building entire ghost towns that can be entered as "improvemet" in the balance sheet and allow for more debt, leverage and ultimately money printing. Same with roads, harbors, bridges, canals and so on. Regardless of whether the infrastructure makes sense or not.
Same place as ours...Thin air credit.
Only theirs is a bit thinner.
No problem.
It returns back to thin air soon enough. The trick is not to be holding the empty bag. You'd hate to have to give up something of value for the priviledge.
walkure.....And you are suggesting that all the money in US (from USD hegemony, wars, intervention in other countries etc) and UK (imperial power for last few centuries and robbing most prosperous countries like China, India and Africa of EVERYTHING and starting the global slave trade....) is not "corruption".
Where were you in the 18th century or 19th or even the 20th?
Why did you not stop your own Govt from doing the above? Is it because you were on the winning side until now?
Where was your morality at that time?
It is all a game of winning or losing...you chose the better side in the last few centuries...now when it is hurting....you WISH you were on the other side, pal!
Let the Chinese create ghost cities and 'print money' or "create debt"...they did not take their money from any outside country...Damn it, they dont even have external debt...so if they fall...it will be 'fun' for you but it wont hurt you because you never lent them a penny.
Instead, they are carrying the debt burden of US Govt and EU etc....so if you go down...it will hurt them more....so please....Please keep your thinking cap on sometimes.
"..
did not see the Chinese robbing the poor to enrich the megarich! It is infact the opposite in China...
...."
hilarious!
there has never in the history of the world been capital flight as out of china in the last decade. the rest of the china will be left holding the bag while the kids of the elite have been safely offshored with the parents to follow if (when?) the SHTF.
you are a retard amigo . a douchebag .
you are a retard amigo . a douchebag .
Same (commentary about impending Chinese collapse/doom/implosion/losing-grip-on-power, etc.), since 2008...
As for myself, the only issue regarding China - and by Direct-Extension, the United States that I am concerned with, is how much gold China has, when they're going to announce it/provide proof, etc., and what geopolitical Fuck-up by the U.S. is going to precipitate the aforementioned.
Same impending doom /gloom about the west since 2008.....
If it's so great, why do they keep stimulating, be it directly, or through reserve reqs, margin requirements, and more tolerance of real-estate bubble blowing?
Don't stop til you pop!
They can get back control, but the expense will be terrible. 10 years and 30 million in country deaths (and probably international war) is what it will take. It can be done.
better worry about your own country
10 years ain't bad and 30 mill in dealths is certainly doable. Don't see a prob
"As for China itself, and the losses on homes and stocks that are in the offing, I’ve long been on record stating I can’t see how it will not descent into civil war, and I still don’t."
You can't see it because you come from a bellicose capitalist protestant culture which is barely two centuries old, whereas they've been peaceful taoist/buddhist merchants and traders for millennia.
Instead of trying to measure it all through your narrow lenses, why don't you speak to the Chinese? They might teach you a thing or two about free trade within a highly centralized one party-State. They should know, they've invented that system in the second century BC.
http://www.princeton.edu/~gchow/Econ%20379%20lecture%2021x%20Important%2...(2).doc.
Excellent comment. The West continues to view the Asian culture from a lofty, self-important perspective. It disregards the importance of culture, its cohesiveness, in the Asian society. Some in the West even view the Asian cultures as a major weakness. This is a mistake manifest from hubris that the author makes as well.
Like Baltimore?
Who is this mr. thewest?
You should study Chinese history. esp "The Mandate Of Heaven" Civil War is not unknown to China.
I'm pretty tired of those comments that we shouldn't speculate about the future of China since we don't understand their culture and history. Well for one who adopted a capitalist system in the 70s? Who is making the same mistakes with debts as we do? Whose wealth gap is widening at record pace?
They've invented free trade? Yeah great traders they were desroying their ships after reaching Africa because they feared too much competition from outside the "middle". Free trade on the scale we are witnessing today is new even to the Chinese because simply it didn't exist before the middle of the last century.
I have every respect for Chinese culture and history and our western model is by no means a role model I think everyone here agrees with that but please stop pretending that China will be fine for the sake of its huge history and culture and that they have a masterplan for everything they do! Well I know they don't. Some things they manage better than we do, other things they manage worse. And yes I have lived in Asia and know a thing or two about the region!
Blah.
The chinks wouldn't have shit if western politicians and oligarchs hadn't given it to them over the last 30 or so years.
Financials came from western banks.
Manufacturing came from western companies.
Education came from western universities.
Yes, the chinks have done a great job of incorporating everything that has been given to them. Hell, even today they are stealing ideas and information via humint in companies and universities and by various electronic means. Still, if they had not been given a triple to start with they could not have hit this homerun.
Your trying to say they are so far advanced because of something that happened thousands of years ago carries no weight at all. Please explain the great famine if they are so advanced? Please explain why Vikings do rule all the world's oceans. Please explain why the Aztecs don't rule the world with their gold. Please explain why Europe isn't mongoloid. Just admit it, things like cultural superiority ebb and flow throughout history. Latin is not a commonly used language because of this.
On the other hand, have you ever noticed those that do use Latin are doing pretty good?
"...
You can't see it because you come from a bellicose capitalist protestant culture which is barely two centuries old, whereas they've been peaceful taoist/buddhist merchants and traders for millennia.
...."
I take exception to that. i can trace my ancestry through well over a thousand years of raping and pillaging quite successfully mind you.
Okay, we’ll all crash but every day when I go to work, I don’t pass a single factory over here, just thousands of boxmoving companies.
And they’re all in trouble because Chinese companies have started to open local webshops with local storage hubs to sell directly to the european customers. And they’re crushing our retail and our own companoes because they dont pay taxes AT ALL!!!
When you try to compete with a chinese company, you don’t even turn in a offer because with all the benefits the chinese get from our governments, you are always twice as expensive.
Don’t believe me?
Our postal services are now all recovering and becomming profitable again.
Why?
They ship all the little boxes with the chinese crap directly to our consumers.
So you want to see how our retailers are really doing?
Look at the numbers of small package disitributors like post services, ups, dhl...
99% of stuff made in China and being shipped to consumers in North America or Europe is total garbage.
Quality of tools or household gadgets is substandard and will last maybe 3 to 6 months... if you're lucky
Not to mention the composition of most edibles or clothing.
One of my favorites are "nutritional supplements" made in China.
We are so fucked.
They make what the West buys. Much the same was said about Japan's entry into the post-war economy. "Made in Japan" was THE symbol for cheap products. 3 decades later and the West was so afraid of Japan's quality manufacturing power, it took decisive actions to constrain Japan's growth (oh...you thought the Japanese lost decades was simply the result of the actions by the stupid Japanese?).
Please don't compare the Chinese to the Japanese. That's wrong on so many levels. Another 3 decades from now and the quality will still be the same.
In fact, you have no idea what 3 decades will bring. You're just saying stuff now. BTW, the Japanese were mostly disregarded and of no concern to the Western powers...until they were.
Are you Chinese or married to a Chinese? The Japanese were never a threat to our control. Japan has always been a team player just like Germany.
I see. It's really only about control, isn't it? You really can't find fault with what the Chinese are doing except that you are afraid of losing control of the world as you see it and want it to be.
Yeah, well, I want some iced green tea soba noodles from the lower level food court in Takashimaya Shinjuku right now but we don't always get what we want.
Do you know where the tea leaves are from and how they're cultivated? Enjoy the toxins.
Read up on "Ginko Bloba (?) pills" from China sold through Target and Walmart. Stuffed with rice and grass clippings. No single trace of that Ginko Bloba.
The Japanese take pride in what they do and what they sell. The Chinese care about making money and nothing else.
Hanenergy CEO increased his short position on his own company days before the stock crashed.
Greed doesn't even begin to describe what we're dealing with.
You bet your ass it is about control.
You do realize that the Takashimaya Shinjuku is in Tokyo and the tea they serve is grown in Japan, probable Shizuoka Prefecture. One does not have to hate China to love Japan (despite Japan being under the West's control, as you put it before).
You should get out and travel more and stop being so scared of everything beyond your limited view.
I travel lots but not in China. Haven't met a Chinese person I liked. Maybe one or two but they were the exception.
Why do you think that traveling would automatically change my view? By extension, you are suggesting that a person who travels becomes more "inclusive" when we can both agree that no amount of travel is going to change the Chinese "limited" view.
I'm not scared, just being protective. FWIW, lots of cultures have problems with the Chinese and their ways.
lol jist an another ignorant and arrogant douchebag hailing from west . dont waste your time suitebu on this kNucklehead . he is too stupid to learn anything .
lol jist an another ignorant and arrogant douchebag hailing from west . dont waste your time suitebu on this kNucklehead . he is too stupid to learn anything .
Would you like some used girls panties from a vending machine to go with those noodles?
Fragrant Lotus are the best.
Not accurate at all. Made in Japan meant inexpensive, not cheap. There are plenty of working Japanese products still in use in the US from 40 years ago, including highly sought after vehicles and electronics.
Actually, it did mean cheap and poor quality until about 40 years ago. Read my comment again.
The point is Japan turned things around. There is every reason to believe the Chinese will also.
pointless
"...
The point is Japan turned things around. There is every reason to believe the Chinese will also.
..."
really? name one.
This is the kind of post you get when someone strings together a bunch of Bloomberg reports.
I just want to know why they all look alike, all "1.4 million" of 'em
Clones working like drones. Unfortunately there's way too many of them and too many are printing their own currency which is par with the USD - biggest joke of the century.
Mao won!
Their disinterest in Western multiculturalism.
"Disinterest" means they're not open to change. They're pretty much mono-culturalists just like the article says. They don't integrate anywhere now. Earlier immigrants from China made an effort to become American or Canadian. The new Chinese immigrant class is first and foremost Chinese. They're smug and arrogant nationalist pricks with a scent of fascism.
I don't think it would ever cross the minds of any Chinese person (or Asian in general) to alter their culture to please walkure or any other Westerner. As for how you perceive the immigrants, you should hear what they (Chinese and Japanese) say about the arrogant, too loud, pushing Westerners in their countries.
You ain't special and no one outside your family thinks you are. Get used to it.
You don't think. Do you know Chinese? Have you dealt with the Chinese? "Pushing" that's a good one! They're pushing you right off the road to get where they need to get. Any shop or market you visit on the Westcoast where Chinese engage is LOUD and the language is nauseating (to me at least).
Have fun with that when they take over your hood!
Anyone who puts a ski jump .... on the prow of an aircraft carrier .... and dredges an artificial island in 300 foot waters .... is not ready for prime time ! LOL Unless it's gonna have U boat pens .... hmmm ?
Then why the great concern?
I have serenity .... because, I believe in the conservative cultural and economic traditions .... of the Chinese people .... they are leaving western socialism in the dust bin of history .... and will join us to combat Islamo-Socialism .... in Southeast Asia .... and on their borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan .... welcome back to the fight, Comrades !
Chinese lie and screw each other over like nobody else. Yeah, good luck with that alliance. You're nothing to them, gweilo! Make that comrade gweilo!
If you are so retarded .... that your "mental jury" .... has not sorted out Socialism .... versus .... Capitalism .... you are condemned to read all the articles .... in a vain attempt to justify socialism .... for once and for all .... then you can present your stupid case .... in long boring manifesto comments .... LOL !
This is really crappy article, I can get better one out of the dudes at my local pub.
The author seems not understanding China story at all. Disinformation at best
Part of why China mfg is in trouble is reshoring. Given the cost of shipping and American robot factories it now makes sense to mfg more in America.
Time to get real about Russia. No wonder major ratings agencies downgraded Russian debt. Just look at these numbers and see why the downgrade only made sense.
" Russia’s national debt as of May 1 is $52.5 billion, while its foreign reserves are $356 billion, including $48.3 billion worth of gold. In other words, Russia could cover its foreign debt seven times over (strictly speaking, 6.8 times)." "
Russia’s trade balance consistently runs surpluses which ensures a permanent influx of foreign currency"
We need to bring Russia back into the fold. Obama is an idiot for ever having pushed Russia away. Sanctions are a joke on the European (German) economy. Merkel speaks fluent Russian. So America gets Western Ukraine to plant Monsanto corn, wheat and use lots of Roundup. They will flood the Europeans with cancer products. Maybe there's something to this Agenda 21 conspiracy....
Again, America is cutting off its nose to spite its face.
Russia is mostly European heritage. They should be invited back to the table like yesterday.
never go full retard son . Russia is Eurasian . Period .
Give me Japanese, Korean, Chinese, Filipino, Viet Namese, Cambodian, Laotians, Mongolian, Russians, Indian, Malaysian Chinese, Thais, Myanmarians .... any day over Mudslimes .... I would welcome Chinese help in cleaning up Mudslimes in the Philippines and Thailand !
muslims, jews and christians are the scourge of the world. the only proper way to be a bigot is to be an equal opportunity bigot. all the abrahamics are a deranged bunch of dna disabled missing links of a human.
I share your disgust with these Middle Eastern religions. They all share an ancient common ancestor religion from 2-3,000 BC in the ancient near east. Based on shepards and neolithic agriculture.
Myself, my heritage is in the north of Europe. The Norse gods and germanic gods were not connected to the Middle East. But now my ethnic group is firmly in the hands of alien gods, and the chosen people. Genetic tests I had done, place my father gene line 7,000BC in Southern Sweden, Norway and a strong finnish connection. I wonder why I shoudl worship the alien's god? Seriously, the conversion was only a few centuries ago.
There's about a billion muslims in the world. They don't all live in Deerborn, MI.
You know who rescued the refugees on the boats? Muslim community from many of the countries you list above.
apprpriately listening to brian eno this morning, taking tiger mountain by strategy. the chinese gave themselves away in 1946. they are in the bandits den with forces ready to attack upon the signal.
it is amusing to watch americans in the same denial brits were pre ww2, before the world put up the sunset on the brit empire even though they "won" the war against nazis, those horrible chi, i mean, nazis.
http://www.digitalmusicnews.com/permalink/2015/05/22/fk-it-heres-the-ent...
I don't know why we have to put up with amateurish articles written by Tyler's gasbag mother-in-law.
In her first sentence, she uses two parentheticals and a pair of dashes to confuse everybody including doctoral candidates from MIT.
And then
What is ZH coming to? No proof readers whatsoever?
Where's my air sickness bag? Yours truly is going to barf.
i wonder if the chinese will get their 6 million pounds of flesh. i hope we don't have to hear incessant whining about it afterwards......if any of us are still around.
A Black Friday at Walmart should take care of that with a couple of whaling ships tossed in to boot.
Anymore the "automatic earth" blog is as bad as kunstler.
imitation is the sincerest form of flattery
Following in the footsteps of the American economy and real estate valuations of the Borough of Manhattan.
Pot calling the ketel out?
LOLOL>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEVER call Keitel out.
http://maniera.mymaniera.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/reservoir_dogs_h...
1.4 million or 1.4 billion?
Does anybody bother proofreading their own shitty articles anymore, or are they just pumped out with voice recognition and substandard translation?
Another China hit piece. If it ain't Russia it's China. One thing that is certain is that none of these "anal-ists" will ever understand what Russia and China are about. All they really know is how this corrupt system operates, if they even know that.
Truth is they all need a boogeyman to point the finger at, so that no one here notices how corrupt out system is. It's all, "you think this is bad you should see the other guy" bullshit.
China doesn't coddle it's fuck-ups, you get caught, you die.
In the US the fuck-ups run the circus, and these posters are quite fine with that as long as there's a buck to be made.
The author got ass raped.
Anyone who thinks the Chinese communist party is a united block of happiness is very naive. it's made up of at least as many internal political factions as the US has political parties.
There is no monobloc communism in China. The Party has a wide spectrum of politics, ranging from those who want to turn back the clock to the Mao era to those who would totally Westernize the country. Sometimes it seems there is more of a range of politics inside the Chinese Communist Party than inside American politics. At any rate, in America, you get to vote and you get somebody who is hated by more than half the voters. In China, you don't vote, and you get somebody who is liked by the overwhelming majority. Why would they want democracy?
so funny watching morons comment about China. Nearly 99.9% haven't even visited the country let alone know anything about it.
With regards to how China can pay for all those projects, China does not pay abroad in Yuan yet you idiot, so printing to infinity like the US is not on the cards. I won't elaborate on how they have leverage up through their ownership of UST becoz you are a certified IDIOT and certainly don't consume facts that matter only BS that makes for gloried masturbating material in the Western press.
The author is a certified MORON and I dunno how he's let onto ZH! Dick brain, I'm on the ground and I'm not some chump change businessman, from my vantage point all of your headline garbage you put together is just that GARBAGE.
BRAIN-DEAD headline beater is as kind of a word I can offer a MORON(S)!
Article is pretty deadbeat. Yea China has some issues, but in truth you know nothing about the country and how things are running along etc. All you see are the BS headlines that scrape the surface and you try to porn it off as though its some insight. hahahahahaha. SAD SAD state of affairs.
@vyeung
What a brilliant analysis!!
I believe you do not agree with the author.
"The author is a certified MORON"
"morons comment about China"
"BRAIN-DEAD MORON(S)!"
"a Dick brain"
"you idiot,"
"a certified IDIOT"
"only BS gloried masturbating material"
"BS headlines"
"headline garbage"
"GARBAGE"
"deadbeat"
"porn it off"
@vyeung
What a brilliant analysis!!
I believe you do not agree with the author.
"The author is a certified MORON"
"morons comment about China"
"BRAIN-DEAD MORON(S)!"
"a Dick brain"
"you idiot,"
"a certified IDIOT"
"only BS gloried masturbating material"
"BS headlines"
"headline garbage"
"GARBAGE"
"deadbeat"
"porn it off"
you too dag if you love the drivel you are another moron .
Max, ol' boy
Whose drivel do you mean?
I don't want to be an "idiot."
I believe you must be very smart.
Tell me what to think.
you are just another schmuck . get in line dipshit govt is paying monthly checks to ya .
Alarmist bullshit. The phrase" housing market arise from its ashes" stands out. If you spend any time in China, you will see the housing market is going full tilt, and they are being purchased, mostly with cash. Writers who sit on the other side of the planet and peddle gloom and doom about China have an eager audience. It is all the Americans who see their economy and whole country failing and need somebody to criticize.
Pure propaganda. I wonder if they get a monthly check from the government for writing this.