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Asia Scholar Lays Out "Three Ways China And The US Could Go To War"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday, in a troubling oped posted in China's Global Times, a paper owned by the ruling Communist Party, China issued its loudest warning yet to the US to keep out of its affairs, in this case the various disputed territories in the South China Sea among them but not limited to China's artificial islands in the Spratly chain which have become a topic of contention between China and various US allies in the region, when it said that war was “inevitable” between China and the United States unless Washington stopped demanding Beijing halt the building of artificial islands in the disputed waterway.

“We do not want a military conflict with the United States, but if it were to come, we have to accept it,” said The Global Times, which is among China’s most nationalist newspapers.

But is a military conflict, let alone an actual war, realistic in a world in which all political and diplomatic disagreements are solved either in the back room or using the capital markets?

According to Michael Auslin, a resident scholar and the director of Japan Studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he specializes in Asian regional security and political issues, the answer is yes. Auslin proposes that with Beijing and Washington both laying down "red lines" in the South China Sea, the two superpowers are maneuvering themselves into a potential conflict since neither would be willing to back down over fears of losing face or realpolitik clout.

Beijing has not yet declared a formal air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea, unlike the one it established over part of the East China Sea in 2013, nor could it today enforce such a zone effectively with its current fighters.

 

However, with its reclamation activities continuing, and the Obama Administration apparently having decided to challenge China’s claims, the US and China are now potentially closer to an armed encounter than at any time in the past 20 years.

In an article in The Commentator, he lays out the three real-world scenarios under which it could happen.

1) Accident: The US Navy is reportedly considering sending ships within 12 miles of the manmade islands, thereby entering into what China claims is now sovereign territory. With Chinese naval and maritime patrol vessels in the waters, intimidation or harassment of US ships could lead to a collision, with each side responding in turn.

This is what China has done to ships of other nations, and an accident could lead to a stand-off. In the air, the Spratlys lie about 800 miles from China’s shores, already within the combat radius of China’s most advanced fighter jet (though Beijing has yet to show that it can effectively oppose US air patrols).

More worrisome, China is building airstrips on its islands, and may soon be able to launch planes from them to patrol the skies. Similarly, once its aircraft carrier is operational with an air wing, it can easily patrol the area. Any of those developments would dramatically increase the chances of a mid-air collision, such as happened in 2001 between a Chinese fighter and a US Navy surveillance plane.

2) Premeditation: Beijing has staked its geopolitical reputation in Southeast Asia on its claims to the South China Sea and now the building of the islands, which already cover more than 2,000 acres. As I wrote in National Review last week, unless they decide to back down, and risk losing influence in Asia, China’s leaders may decide that stopping American incursion into their newly claimed waters early on is the best opportunity to make the risks to Washington seem too high.

Once Chinese airplanes are on the islands, then they may decide to shadow US planes and prevent them from flying in “restricted” skies, for the same reason, leaving the US to decide how far to respond. Thus, they may force a confrontation, to try and get the Obama Administration to back down from getting involved in another military situation while it is dealing with the Middle East and Ukraine.

3) Indirect Conflict: China may well judge that it is too risky to directly challenge US ships and planes, but that it can make the same point by intercepting those of other countries. Already, the Philippines has claimed that China warned off its surveillance planes, and China has had regular maritime run-ins with the Philippines and Vietnam.

It may decide to stop foreign ships from passing by its new islands, or it may soon try to escort less advanced foreign planes out the skies above its islands. A direct conflict between China and any of its neighbors would, at this point, have a good chance of bringing in the US, in order to credibly claim that it is upholding international law (and, in the case of the Philippines, coming to the aid of a treaty ally).

His conclusion:

Beijing and Washington are each laying down redlines in the South China Sea, making the upholding of their claims a priority. In this, they are maneuvering themselves into a potential conflict.

 

With no de-escalation mechanisms, and deep distrust on both sides, the more capable China becomes in defending its claimed territory, the more risks the US will face in challenging those claims.

 

That is why each is trying to define the boundaries and set the pattern of behavior before the other does. That may not ensure that there will be a military encounter, but it steadily raises the chances of one.

What Auslin ignored to note is that with the entire world gripped in secular stagnation, a "controlled" war may be just what the sputtering economic engines of the world's two largest economies need. The only question is how to assure any incipient conflict will remain "controlled."

 

 

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Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:32 | 6134213 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Ain't happening.

Who else would buy all their cheap plastic crap?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:36 | 6134225 Laowei Gweilo
Laowei Gweilo's picture

this would hurt the rich in China and the rich in the USA

 

so... yeah... not gonna happen

 

they'll talk about it to keep the 99% distracted with nationalism but that's about it

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:25 | 6134251 strannick
strannick's picture

"The US could credibly claim it is upholding international law"?

Law is used to keep the other guy from shooting, while you reload.

The US incites massacres around the world every year, destroys nations, ignores treaties and law, then sends in its smiling politicoes blabbing platitudes to a corrupt MSM for cover, on behalf of its elites..

The US ruins the world to rule it, and would rather destroy a nation, that be unable to control it and exploit it.

Its either dominates a nation with backdoor diplomacy

or has the CIA internally corrupt it.

or creates a bogus coalition to bomb and destroy it.

These are Americas values, and this is the way America conducts itself in the world.

This United States, so sadly represented by the Bushes and the Clintons, is the tyranny that George Washington and Andrew Jackson fought against on behalf of liberty and mankind, and which Ron and Rand Paul still fight for. 

America is the problem, just like Britain was the problem, just like China will be the problem.

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:35 | 6134419 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

4: Film the daughter of China's top dog and put it on YouTube under China Dolls Gone Wild.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:15 | 6134516 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

We are unable to secure the southern border of the USSA - why should we care about the territorial claims of vietnam and the phillipines/japan/china?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 23:44 | 6134923 Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

Why not let China build all the infrastructure for a military base, then take it from them?  The US gets a Diego Garcia in the South China Sea for free...

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 00:06 | 6134974 Wookie
Wookie's picture

It's not that we are unable to, it's that we CHOOSE to not secure it.....who would pick all of those yummy strawberries?

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 04:08 | 6135255 Nobody Important
Nobody Important's picture

You nailed it on all points!

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 11:28 | 6136339 napper
napper's picture

Totally agree with you on America and Britain. I don't see how you can project the same on China at this point though.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:57 | 6134283 ross81
ross81's picture

damn you to hell man, stole my thunder.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:44 | 6134242 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Let's get it on, I think it could very well happen. the world deserves a good cleansing. If I have to die so be it

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:57 | 6134280 me or you
me or you's picture

Start by hanging yourself up.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:17 | 6134362 NoDecaf
NoDecaf's picture

fill out your organ donor card first, so at least you weren't a total waste to humanity.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 22:16 | 6134690 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

I'm no doctor, but given western medicine's invasive philosophy, I would imagine that there are some drugs and techniques used for emergency resuscitation that would significantly stress one's organs.  Well, if it's a matter of life and death then the decision is easy. 

But the decision is not so easy when those organs will be harvested if resuscitation fails.  I worry about physicians' shifting priorities more towards what's best for the organs, rather than for the current owner of said organs.

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 02:54 | 6135181 zvzzt
zvzzt's picture

that's illegal.... 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:01 | 6134296 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Only the Poles probably.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:06 | 6134316 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

China could use Vietnam as a proxy; can you imagine?  China hitting Vietnamese planes or naval vessels and the U.S. supporting "North" Vietnam?

Oh the irony...

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 04:40 | 6135273 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

If the MIC decided to go this way - we would probably end up with a base in nam. It would take another false flag but it seems par for the course. This (or something like it) would be one of the many clusters we hand over to the bright eyed next generation to fuck them up mentally, you know - "take their turn".

 - Its like you might have read their mind.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:42 | 6134611 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

surprised, unprepared, and poorly... and that goes for both sides

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 01:18 | 6135084 Joenobody12
Joenobody12's picture

The answer to your question is EVERYBODY. I went to Romania the year before and had to stop at a small town to buy a pair of hiking boot. Love the design and quality. I was surprised Chinese products reach so far.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:45 | 6134245 BeansMcGreens
BeansMcGreens's picture

King George V of Great Britain, Czar Nicholas II of Russia, and Emperor Wilhelm II of Germany.

 

Hey, they are cousins, war aint going to happen.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:49 | 6134462 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Family feuds are the worst... 

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 02:51 | 6135173 napper
napper's picture

"I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply." -- Nathan Rothschild

 

Not sure if N. Rothschild actually said it, but the one below is more widely cited:

 

"Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation and I care not who makes the laws."  -- Mayer Amschel Rothschild

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:49 | 6134253 Marlon Brando
Marlon Brando's picture

Slap China with a 30 percent import tax and maybe we can have some jobs back. 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:53 | 6134269 suteibu
suteibu's picture

"maybe we can have some jobs back."

Good thing because a lot of Walmart employees will be looking for jobs.  Actually, those Chinese jobs will move to Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, etc, especially when the TPP is signed.  They won't be coming back to the US until the global labor costs are equalized (meaning reduced everywhere).

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:46 | 6134449 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Like I said: "The Water Self-Leveling principle of Labor and Operating* Costs."

* Includes Regulatory and Environmental cost minimization at a global level.  "It's logical" -Spock

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 01:08 | 6135077 Alvin Fernald
Alvin Fernald's picture

"Slap China with a 30 percent import tax and maybe we can have some jobs back. "

That would be the fourth way a war with China could start.

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 10:47 | 6136169 napper
napper's picture

I believe China's leaders had considered such scenarios three decades ago. And they have had more than enough reminders from the inept US government along the way. Looking at the current situation (or set-up), I'd say China is far better prepared than America for a trade war.

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 10:37 | 6136128 napper
napper's picture

No jobs (or very few jobs) will be returning to America even if you slap China with a 300 percent import tax. They will simply move to China's neighboring countries, or Africa, or South America.

 

China is no longer just a source of cheap labor (not exactly cheap now), but the biggest market for many countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, and North America. China is the #1 trading partner of Russia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, South Africa, India, Iran, Vietnam, Pakistan, Taiwan, All six Central Asian "Stans", Mongolia, Brazil, Chile, and a host central and western African countries.

 

America's share and significance in China's trade and commerce has been fading except in the area of agricultural imports. Many American companies now rely on the Chinese market for survival.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:51 | 6134259 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

My thinking lately is that the US is going to finance-fuck China somehow. The USs response to every country that makes a stand or a stink is regime change. Always. And as all of the locals in China pile into their stockmarket, push real estate higher, etc, the surest way to sow discord in China is to crash those markets and set the ire of their population onto the government. I also think this is the big push on the TPP, move production out of china to other asian countries. Just a theory.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:51 | 6134467 dag
dag's picture

Very good!

Economics is China's Achilles heal.

 

Give China an economic/finance problem as a major distraction.

Make deal with Russia.

Co-orginate war plans with Japan and India.

Maps of divided China already published.

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 22:17 | 6134698 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Some Chinese people I know think that.

Possibly unrelated, possibly not; I was in Shanghai a few weeks ago, and a guy I was working had just worked on a meeting for the Carlyle Group.  He said they wanted to gradually diminish Hong Kong's importance as a global financial center, in favor of Shanghai.  The thinking was that Hong Kong was less predictable and safely controlled by the Chinese government, so the Carlyle Group would prefer Shanghai.

I wasn't sure what to make of that, but the Carlyle Group being who they are, who knows.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:51 | 6134260 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

The US denies China soverign rights to their new man made islands. Thus they will overfly and send warships inside the 12 mile limit. The ball is then in China's court. I don't believe China will abandon their newly built islands, not when they see the USA with multiple hundreds of military bases and island bases all over the Pacific. Their reasoning, "if the USA can claim hundreds of islands and bases near China, then China can claim 3-4 man made dirt heaps. I think China will NOT BACK DOWN. This means they will have to encounter the US ships and aircraft that do intrude on purpose. Like in the old cold war days when Russian and USN warship actually collided with each other trying to push the others out of their way. Also Submarine encounter too, like the hundreds that the Red Navy and the USN played under the seas for decades. If someone gets hurt, then perhaps the game of chicken can get out of hand. But I doubt it would go past the initial encounter. Remember the Chinese knocked down a US spy plane just after Bush took office, and Bush did nothing. China even invited Russian in to ransack the plane if full view of US intelligence assets! Bush dared not react. Obama would be like Bush, do nothing.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:58 | 6134288 suteibu
suteibu's picture

I believe the best case for the US is to goad Japan into confrontation with China rather than a direct US challenge.  It would allow the US to use its defense treaty as justification to be involved in the background. It also allows the US to maintain backdoor relations with China as was seen during the Senkaku Islands tension.

Additionally, it maintains the wedge between Japan and China because the worse case for the US is if Japan and China mend their relationship.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:33 | 6134411 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Nuland will be out on the first flight to Japan with a bag of sushi.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:48 | 6134458 IronForge
IronForge's picture

It's inevitable.  JPN/CHN Trade more together.  It's a matter of time until it doubles, then triples the JPN/USA Trade.

It it weren't for the MBS/Banking Credit Crash of 2007-8 CE and the Post "JPY/CNY Direct Trade Currency Exchange Aggreement" Demostrations incited by the TWNese/KOReans over the Senkaku/Daido Islands (TWN made a big stink out of it - CHN and JPN had unresolved talks from years ago on backburner), it would have doubled by now.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:25 | 6134557 suteibu
suteibu's picture

"CHN and JPN had unresolved talks from years ago on backburner."

Most people either don't know this or forget about it.  They were close to signing a joint exploration deal and then suddenly and without explanation the deal was shelved.  A couple of years later the Japanese voted for closer relations with China.  In both cases, the US interfered for its own interests and China and Japan drifted further apart.

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 00:31 | 6134635 napper
napper's picture

Japan ain't stupid. Numerous Japanese analysts have covered this topic over the past half century. Most Japanese know that they will likely become cannon fodder for the US if dragged into a conflict with Russia or China.

 

Previous Japanese politicians were more or less balanced in their approach to geopolitical issues. Abe is a CIA tool - he got into power by fraud with the help of CIA. So things may get out of hand on his watch, although the possibility of Abe and his cohorts getting assassinated by anti-American groups in the military and the general population during a military crisis is very real.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:20 | 6134375 anachronism
anachronism's picture

Regretably, I believe that your assessment is right. The US will do nothing. So that begs the question: "Why does the US rattle its sabers when it knows that it will back down?"

There is no feasible way for ASEAN nations to develop and extract the natural resources under the seabed of the South China Sea on their own. So the best they can hope for is to get royalties from granting Royal Dutch Shell or Exxon Mobil "rights" to do it for them. But China has the will and the means to do this for themselves.

I believe that the US should offer China a quid pro quo: China gets a free hand in the South China Sea and lets japan have a free hand in/around the Senkaku islamds. The ASEAN countries get to fish in the South China Sea and the Chinese/Taiwanese get to fish in/around the Senkakus.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:21 | 6134380 anachronism
anachronism's picture

Regretably, I believe that your assessment is right. The US will do nothing. So that begs the question: "Why does the US rattle its sabers when it knows that it will back down?"

There is no feasible way for ASEAN nations to develop and extract the natural resources under the seabed of the South China Sea on their own. So the best they can hope for is to get royalties from granting Royal Dutch Shell or Exxon Mobil "rights" to do it for them. But China has the will and the means to do this for themselves.

I believe that the US should offer China a quid pro quo: China gets a free hand in the South China Sea and lets japan have a free hand in/around the Senkaku islamds. The ASEAN countries get to fish in the South China Sea and the Chinese/Taiwanese get to fish in/around the Senkakus.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:56 | 6134637 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Ought to put a huge prop on a sub and park it next to one of the islands and just whoosh it away as they build it.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:52 | 6134262 Kim Jong-Il
Kim Jong-Il's picture

Chinese aircraft carrier?  totally symbolic.  afraid they might scratch it on something. 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:52 | 6134264 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Perhaps someone (Jack Burton?) on this board knows the extent of Russian equipment and advisory personnel in China at the present, and whether these assets have increased over the past 90 days or so due to the recent dust-ups over building 'sand castles'...   S-400 deployment and/or other nifty Russian hardware is sure to land sometime soon if it hasn't already.

 

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:54 | 6134267 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

The number one way is due to the arrogance, hubris, exceptionalism, chutzpah and satanic values of our ZWO/ZATO masters.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:59 | 6134285 q99x2
q99x2's picture

You can control a war. I saw it being done on several sub-q99x2 planets that still had banksters on them. They did it by using nukes to wipe out over half the poplulation and they printed like all hell to fight off the nuclear winter and fallout that followed. They at war with keeping what they caused from killing the rest of them. That was right before they replaced their governments with open source software, assassinated all their banksters and converted their  financial system into an open source publicly owned and operated crypto-currency system where anyone caught with over 10,000,000 were sent to the pyramids. There are pyramids on planets throughout the universe that have beed constructed with the specific function of ridding planets of banksters. They symbolize the sacrifice of control by a few in honor of the force behind all existence. Ice ages followed for a number of thousands of years but I hear a few of the planets are starting to thaw out now.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:00 | 6134489 Parsecs Taxi
Parsecs Taxi's picture

That was so cool.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 19:59 | 6134291 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

The Hainan Island incident in 2001 was a serious provocation at a time of tremendous and growing mercantilist relationship with the US.  How much more nationalistic are the Chinese now that they've pulled into 2nd place in the world in terms of GDP?  

One more caveat:  All ZeroHedgers by now know the debt-constructed house of cards worldwide cannot be sustained into infinity.  We are buying less, Eorozone is buying less, China is selling less, period.  Less leads to factory closings, unemployment, social friction and that's exactly when picking on an external bogeyman keeps the locals from looking too hard at their own political masters.  

I am not predicting anything but a repeat of the experiences throughout all human history.  Timing is up to TPTB. 

One more thing.  Don't forget the loss of a few millions or even a few hundred million people would reduce demand pressures on food and other essential scarcities.  It's like a bad movie.

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 08:31 | 6135595 oudinot
oudinot's picture

Mike:  You are incorrect.

In November 2014, the IMF declared China has the largest GDP in the world by purchasing parity.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:00 | 6134295 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

The main problem with having a war with China is, an hour after it's finished you need to have another one......

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:04 | 6134307 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

The DC US and their Zionist masters going to war against China is a bit like going to war against the loan shark you owe.

But then Zion may want it this way.

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:58 | 6134645 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

If you cannot pay the loan shark and he will kill you for that, what choice do you have?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:07 | 6134322 bthunder
bthunder's picture

Scenario #4: 

We sell a few deep-sea oil drilling rigs to 'Nam and to the Philippines, and they place them in neutral waters that ChiComs want to declare theirs.  What will ChiComs to then?  bomb them - international incident, and US is not even involved.  all that "goodwill" accumulated by China (their investments, their bank) - all will be gone in a Beijing minute. 

Scenarion #5: 

Let the Japanese develop nukes.  Thanks to Fuk-ushuma Japan is already contaminated and fuk-ed.  Let the 3 ancient enemies (China, Korea and Japan) fight it out once and for all.  Japs don't have much to lose. 

In both cases USA can come in later on and pick up the spoils.

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 22:27 | 6134728 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

Zbig!  Where ya been?  Playing Risk?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:10 | 6134334 BlussMann
BlussMann's picture

There's going to be some disappointed Rednecks if there isn't a war - war is their cue "Mu Kuntry Needs Me - Me, I'm that damn important" !!

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:22 | 6134385 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

The SMART phone is taken away and you have to visit a psychologist, then the pharmacist and if the electric went out; you looking for the red-neck for a meal.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 22:00 | 6134649 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Some say that redheads taste better than rednecks but their all gingers to me.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:36 | 6134420 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Indeed. They will pick up the flag and talk about "killing the chinks" in no time flat. That lot is so easily influenced by jingoism.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:14 | 6134350 nakki
nakki's picture

Neocon Chinese style. Psychopaths rule everywhere. When shit hits the fan in China, they'll have to blame someone. Cant be the leaders of the Peoples Party, can't be the Chinese oligarchy.

Think they have a score to settle with Japan.

Nothing like a good old world war to get the economies going, and with any luck kill of a half of billion people ta boot. Bankers and MIC wet dream.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:20 | 6134374 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

China and Russia have advanced radar systems that can render the warships and planes useless; the problem with using too much technology.  Perhaps the US would use F-35's to do the job or the "Osprey" that keeps screwing up as well.  The Sunburn and Onyx missiles are far superior to the US & NATO...ever wonder why we use Russian rockets to supply the space station.  Then it gets better as Germany turns East.  US will be isolated in the future apart from divine intervention.  I hope not, but based on the moral decay, which always corresponds to a nation fall...we are in the sewer already, we are exceptional when it comes to debauchery.  One word to prove the point.  Obama.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:25 | 6134397 dag
dag's picture

Obama will go down in history as the dumbest patsy for either starting a war with China or backing down from a challenge from China.


His handlers are setting him up to challenge China in a war the US cannot win.


"Affirmative Action" community organizers are not required to study history.

What a fool Obama is.


Wed, 05/27/2015 - 09:40 | 6135875 oudinot
oudinot's picture

See guys:  you can criticize Obama without using Reggie,adolescent  homosexual inferences which are irrelevant.

He is useless.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:46 | 6134451 kanoli
kanoli's picture

Why do people continue to repeat the stupid and false idea that wars can end economic depressions?  The USA was already coming out the Great Depression when WWII started.  War = massive government spending.  The Federal Reserve and Obamacare are already doing that.   Instead, war is likely to lead to the US of A taking a big ole nuke up the arse.  See what that does for the economy...

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:10 | 6134512 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Coming out of the depression by selling massive ammounts of arms and

war materiel,for gold,to the UK and France.The credit thingy didn't really start until 1942.

The RoW was at war for two years before the US entered.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:55 | 6134478 CoastalCowboy
CoastalCowboy's picture

China could destroy us by ceasing exporting to us. The FSA would take care of the rest for them.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 22:55 | 6134798 Alexandre Stavisky
Alexandre Stavisky's picture

Proven with worldwide double-blind intelligence studies that somehow (oh, the horror?) genetic subgroups, haploid carriers with great specificity, when tested, demonstrate both superior and inferior results.  Strangely the Asians are time-tested proven winners in intelligence AND work ethic.  Unfortunately they have been overshadowed by the crushing demonic coalitions which were able to control and repress their natural gifts for centuries.

That is changing.  China is showing great restraint internationally to stave off the destructive while holding forth the constructive.  The East (except for Japan under their minders) are keeping a good house meaning building a strong nation, inculcating high morals, suppressing corruption, and extending peaceful alliances.  What US constitution reading, free-market hoper in the good red-white-and-blue has realized he has been forsaken, with malice aforethought?  While fraud and counterfeit are a pronounced feature of the present day world, the latecomer East is only following its dear leaders.  China, for all its problems, is ascendant and seeking a relatively more moral course.  The west, with all its problems, is compounding and enlarging upon their vices and is decidedly descendant.  The west is embracing every vice to hold as virtue, is supressing all good organic financial growth and enlarging every misfit operation and paper-construct falsehood to expound its presumed riches.   For a fall that will define all falls.  While the USA has massive distant military bases about the world to overshadow most gov't and get them to enact its will, it is hypocritically challenging a nation trying to construct its "pickets" near its own shores.  If the Spratly are a no-no for China, then what is Midway, Guam, the Phillipines, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan, etc.?  It makes one wish the technologies would vanish which interlink the world and individual lands could revert to self rule without the interference of other, sometimes inferior but powerful tribes.  Afterall, for all that one would want to hold USA weapons and USA financial instruments (assured of windfall profits) and some USA trade--you wouldn't want USA gastronomy, architecture, art, literature, manners, or development.  It's a furnace of mediocrity.

The USA to remain somewhat ascendant must support its strength, but instead, in a macabre, distorted Island of Dr. Moreau fashion, it suppresses its most able subgroups while extolling its most febrile.  Why would any good master do so?  Especially in the face of truly able competition?  Why field your numbnuts and hold your most able in demoralizing position?

What average battlefield commander would send his misfits to do the work of the most masterful special ops? And put his greatest assets on latrine or KP duty?

North America had such majestic potentials.  One must wonder who would deliberately burn it down. What purpose to deliberately crush your worst grape in the wine press and feed the finest to the swine?

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 00:01 | 6134958 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Who are elitist inbred cocksuckers?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 20:59 | 6134486 10mm
10mm's picture

No White Goys from this point shall serve. If so, your blood is on your own head. 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:01 | 6134488 IronForge
IronForge's picture

 

 

 

Mistrals are perfect for Island Hopping...

It would be funny if CHN buys the Mistrals, get FRA out of its bind (repaid w/favors sometime in the future), and enforce their Spratley Claims by sending their Troops sailing about on the Mistrals...

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:22 | 6134547 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Use the choppers for Chinese take out delivery?

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:13 | 6134521 Phillyguy
Phillyguy's picture

Any war with China can easily escalate into a US vs China/Russia. Does Obama think he can prevail in such a conflict? Obviously, countries hosting US bases (S Korea, Japan, Australia) will likely be targeted with Chinese/Russian nuclear weapons. Did Japan learn anything from their experience in WWII?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:21 | 6134533 dag
dag's picture
"The break-up of China;: With an account of its present commerce, currency, waterways, armies, railways, politics, and future prospects" Hardcover – 1899 by  Charles William De la Poer Beresford Beresford (Author)
This 1899 classic was republished several times in the 21st century.  Why?

 

Republished:

2012

2010

2001

 

China is the real target for  the US: no Russia, Iran, or North Korea.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:40 | 6134603 napper
napper's picture

They are all targets. It's a matter of the order of planned conquers.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:29 | 6134571 logical-different
logical-different's picture

War will only take place if the so called elite want it to take place.  

Oh yah, and if the other freaks like the the weapons manufacturers, banks and the military industrial complex see an opportunity to make a bucket of money.

ALL WARS ARE CAUSED BY THESE MORONS.  OBAMA IS JUST ANOTHER PRESIDENT FACILITATING BUSINESS FOR THESE FREAKS.

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 01:30 | 6135091 napper
napper's picture

+1. but I'd replace "morons" with "degenerates" or "psychopaths"

 

Bosses at GE, GD, Boeing, Lockeed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grummon, BAE etc will have to seriously consider what will happen to their plants and assets in a real shooting war with Russia or China. I'm pretty sure they want the tensions and hence expensive contracts, but not a real shooting war with a country that can evaporate everything their family tree have worked for.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 21:53 | 6134633 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"But is a military conflict, let alone an actual war, realistic in a world in which all political and diplomatic disagreements are solved either in the back room or using the capital markets?"

 

Say that again?

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 01:53 | 6135105 Md4
Md4's picture

There's no doubt, the world is drifting toward a major conflagration.

And it will likely happen sooner than later.

Reason?

The U.S. is losing its edge, and therefore, it's de facto control over the globe. It is very weak economically, has all but given away it's industries, has become far too dependent on international finance, and, is gradually becoming a neurotic hegemon, increasingly fearful of facing a real fight.

In many ways, our checkered history in world affairs since WWII is beginning to catch up with us. The world has grown up since then, and is very tired of the U.S. pushing it around. Our shortsighted corporate masters have hollowed out our economic strength, transferring it to the very powers growing bolder (and more capable) in their challenges to that hegemony precisely because of it.

Notably, China and Russia want something to say about how things are going to work from now on, and the U.S. doesnt like it.

Eventually, the challenge WILL BE military, and MAY BE catastrophic.

Unless we redefine what is truly in OUR national security interests differently (and what China is doing in the Spratlys is NOT in our national security interests), our belligerent, and often baiting, intimidation tactics will be tested by forces and technology comparable to our own, and we may fail that test.

Then what?

m

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 02:46 | 6135169 Lin S
Lin S's picture

If you remove mainland Chinese immigrants and their money from the California real estate market, RE tanks. State universities and their receipts will get crushed, too.

What becomes of the torrent of mainland Chinese colonizing CA if the U.S. and China throw down? They're everywhere here and in huge numbers, and every manner of business caters to them, because they've become dependent upon Chinese money.

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 08:16 | 6135547 Buster Cherry
Buster Cherry's picture

When I was looking at the "Perils Not Covered" section of the insurance policy on my property, I noticed the "Acts of War" and "Government Actions" was in much bolder print than prior statements.

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 10:22 | 6136059 hopefulbutwary
hopefulbutwary's picture

As said before on ZH, all China has to do is dump 5 trillion in Treasuries. Or say Apple is not welcome in China.

So it seems the powers that be have agreed to go to war. To reduce the population?

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 12:59 | 6136635 qomolangma
qomolangma's picture

Btw, the author of this article, Michael Auslin, poses some interesting info.

Michael Auslin is a resident scholar and the director of Japan Studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he specializes in Asian regional security and political issues. Before joining AEI, Auslin was an associate professor of history at Yale University.

 

More about the American Enterprise Institute (AEI):

 

the American Enterprise Institute

- http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/American_Enterprise_Institute

 

"The Prince of Darkness," Richard Norman Perle, is associated with the American Enterprise Institute and the Project for the New American Century

- http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Richard_N._Perle

 

THE ARCHITECTS OF WAR: WHERE ARE THEY NOW? | ThinkProgress

http://thinkprogress.org/report/the-architects-where-are-they-now/

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