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Dallas Fed Crashes To Six Year Lows As Employment Collapses

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Having missed for a record 5 months in a row, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook collapsed further in May to -20.8 (against expectations of -12.4). Thisis the 5th drop in a row (only ever seen in a recession) and 6th monthly miss in a row (never seen before) as it appears Former Dallas Fed Fisher was talking crap once again when he said "net, low oil prices were good for Texas." Despite Consumer Confidence indicating, somehow, that Texans are the most confident in a year (up from 121 to 130 in May), business survey continues to point to notable weakness with employment collapsing, hours worked crashing, and production plunged. However, on a bright note, expectations for the future jumped from -5.9 to +4.9 - hope springs etermal eh?

Dallas Fed is crashing...

 

and Employment is plunging...

 

Under the covers it is really ugly...

 

As for the survey respondents, they were uniformly bearihs:

Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing

  • We are cautiously optimistic about future demand and the economy as a whole. We have recently raised selling prices and are in the process of expanding production capacity, which will be completed in the third quarter of 2015.
  • We believe that state and federal investment in new highway infrastructure is long overdue in Texas.

Primary Metal Manufacturing

  • Imported steel continues to be a big problem in Houston, but it is also negatively affecting volume and pricing in the entire country.

Fabricated Metal Manufacturing

  • Our business has been good this spring, and we expect it to stay that way through the third quarter.
  • We don’t feel confidence anywhere, but we are feeling cost pressures.
  • Refinery spending continues to be very tight, and we see significant price competition for the few orders actually being let. We are hoping the final settling of the strikes allows folks to return to "normal"—whatever that turns out to be.
  • Our current delivery times are extended due to weather.
  • The oil and gas exploration and production industry continues to worsen since last year’s peak. While the degradation is leveling, the related business impact remains. With some recovery of the price per barrel of oil, the general feeling is that our business impact has leveled.
  • We are seeing all industries hold cash.

Machinery Manufacturing

  • We've maintained the position that we need to give the oil market time to settle, so our goal has been to survive until the third quarter. At that point, production and inventories will have stabilized and maybe our customers will be more comfortable entering the market. We have numerous customers who have delayed purchasing product, and we are optimistic that they will begin ordering again in the third quarter.
  • We are making capital equipment investments as the primary vehicle to grow the business.
  • Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing
  • Our company, which ships internationally, is facing increased stiff competition from South Korea, China, and India. We are losing sales primarily to these three countries.

Wood Product Manufacturing

  • We sell to new single-family home builders. Wet weather has slowed down the development of raw land into ready lots and the home construction process as well. It has affected our shipments for the last two months and will continue to moderate the construction pace for several more.

Paper Manufacturing

  • We experienced a slow start that we hope doesn't catch on.

Printing and Related Support Activities

  • We are in a heavy recapitalization cycle for our plant. This will be complete within the next six months, hence the peak now and fall off in our capital spending as the year progresses. Our headcount is down as we've lost employees to competitors and other opportunities. We actually need to hire several employees in the next couple of months to hit staffing goals, hopefully tapering off by the end of the year. The labor market has become very competitive in Dallas–Fort Worth. We're battling to keep our best young talent.

Textile Product Mills

  • Government and banking regulations are creating non-value-added costs. Cross-border delays on our southern border are very difficult.

Miscellaneous Manufacturing

  • The California shipping strike hurt our inventories and shipping. It is still backed up. The oil drilling slowdown has made a number of good people available for work until the next drilling pickup. Recent rain and floods may hurt May retail.
 

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Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:40 | 6132412 This is it
This is it's picture

And the doubly adjusted figures are...

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:50 | 6132442 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I owe, I owe, so off to work I go.

<Wait, what do I do if I have no job?>

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:23 | 6132509 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

so off to work I DON'T go...........

 

 

and BTW ...WHAT could the Fed do in June to COMPLETELY catch the proles off guard???? 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:18 | 6132711 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Monthly "adjustments" means errors in documentation OR ......lies.

So who's worse, us (the sheep) or Greece ?

We willingly ignore the facts, Greece refuses to let the facts alter their lives.

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:44 | 6132414 NoIdea
NoIdea's picture

I don't understand why we aren't making new ATHs today. The data misses are perfect for it! I'm moving all my money to the Shenzhen stocks. That's a proper stock market where you can make over 100% per year just by buying the stocks everyone else is buying.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:26 | 6132528 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

We're using smaller and smaller sector's of our economy to keep the fairy castle levitated in the clouds, but we're rapidly running out of fairy dust. Apple and Boeing cannot hold the entire economy up no matter what the crack heads on Wall St. think.....

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:42 | 6132416 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

J.R. Ewing is feeling the pinch, baby.  Gonna have to put Southfork Ranch up for auction soon.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:42 | 6132418 spinone
spinone's picture

Bullish

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:46 | 6132425 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

The little red "Sign Here" tabs in the graphs actually say "Rec" on them (recession).  Just thought I'm nention that for anyone else with bad eyes and a small monitor.

I was hoping for something more exicting (like 'click here for a secret back stage tour of Zero Hedge'), but, sadly, no.  Just marking the rather obvious beginning and end of the last  recession.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:56 | 6132456 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

They worked for me though...

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:49 | 6132437 blown income
blown income's picture

Well i'm sure all the clean up from the massive flooding will goose everything in Texas...that's alot of shit to clean up...car sales, truck sales , and i'm sure our insurance will go up as well and I'm pretty sure most don't have flood insurance so they will need a bailout to gut and rebuild ....

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:52 | 6132446 FlSapo
FlSapo's picture

Everything is Awesome!~

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:54 | 6132449 OneTinTrooper
OneTinTrooper's picture

Texas will be just fine.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:54 | 6132452 NoVa
NoVa's picture

Since Lehman TM 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:11 | 6132484 oddjob
oddjob's picture

I seemed to have missed the part about Dick Fisher saying rates were going up.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:15 | 6132496 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Liesman?

Our current delivery times are extended due to weather.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:24 | 6132519 The Wizard
The Wizard's picture

Despite Consumer Confidence indicating, somehow, that Texans are the most confident in a year (up from 121 to 130 in May),

Do ya think there is a direct correlation: confidence up with the stock market. I wonder what will happen to the con-fidence level when the stock market falls.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:32 | 6132557 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Maybe part of it but I spend time in Texas and I think it's more likely that oil has firmed the last 8 weeks from mid $40's to around $60. Hope springs eternal. Most think oil will be back to $75 to $80 soon and the layoffs will end and people will be back to work.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:26 | 6132527 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

Kids, the word for today is "backwardlooking".

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:54 | 6132640 B2u
B2u's picture

Debbie Does Dallas....

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:25 | 6132748 scubapro
scubapro's picture

 

there is no such thing as an 'un-confident' Texan       

 

confidence rose b/c oil bounced.....can anyone else see the price ledge, about 1% lower and the shorts will pile on  imo, then its a quick trip to 50/55....then more noise about further price declines, which then leads to a bounce.....20-30% in each direction should make for nice year

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:06 | 6132893 RushRoolz
RushRoolz's picture

This is clearly an anomaly. Unemployment is 5.4%! BTFD, y'all!

 

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