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Gold Price Moves Since QE3 Have Been A Warning To Mainstream Economists, Not Cause For Celebrations
Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,
A little over two years ago, in the middle of April 2013, there was a gold crash that came seemingly out of nowhere. Worse, for gold investors anyway, that crash was repeated just a few months later. Where gold had stood just shy of $1,800 an ounce at the start of QE3, those cascades had brought the metal price down to just $1,200. For many, especially 'so-called' orthodox economists, it heralded the end of the “fear trade” and meant, unambiguously, that the recovery had finally at long last arrived.
As Felix Salmon wrote at Reuters in an article titled, The Fear Bubble Bursts:
As a result, the falling price of gold is more important than simply being an opportunity for schadenfreude around the likes of Glenn Beck or John Paulson or Zero Hedge…
The biggest problem in the markets right now is that they’re still far too risk-averse. Fear-based assets like gold, Treasury bonds, and cash are in high demand, while there isn’t enough money flowing through greed-based assets like stocks and bank loans and into the economy as a whole. Even if the stock market is expensive, the number of primary and secondary offerings remains low; similarly, banks are not expanding their loan books nearly fast enough…
My hope is that the price of gold will continue to fall, that goldbugs will look increasingly silly, and that as a result Americans with savings will conclude that the best thing to do with those savings is to put them to work in a productive manner, rather than self-defeatingly trying to protect what they have.
Gold has not continued that wished-for collapse, but hasn’t risen much either. In fact, the price of gold remained above $1,300 for only short periods and hasn’t been near that level outside of the January 2015 “Swiss problem.” Most gold analysis views it in terms of not just the “fear bubble” but also a proxy for interest rates and monetary policy. There is already a problem with that latter interpretation, as the price of gold began to its decline almost the moment QE3 started. Economists think of gold investors in only these terms, as emotional and irrational Fed-haters.
In the broader economic context, then, the fact that gold was falling at the same time QE’s had commenced provided that hoped-for economic confirmation. Gold adherents were getting their “debasement” but that gold prices were sharply reacting in the “wrong” direction which could only mean, to the mainline economic view, that QE wasn’t just debasing the dollar it was actually working while doing so.
Writing just prior to the second gold “slam” in June 2013, Nouriel Roubini took his best shots at framing gold’s descent as a victory for Ben Bernanke:
Third, unlike other assets, gold does not provide any income. Whereas equities have dividends, bonds have coupons, and homes provide rents, gold is solely a play on capital appreciation. Now that the global economy is recovering, other assets—equities or even revived real estate—thus provide higher returns. Indeed, U.S. and global equities have vastly outperformed gold since the sharp rise in gold prices in early 2009.
Fourth, gold prices rose sharply when real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates became increasingly negative after successive rounds of quantitative easing. The time to buy gold is when the real returns on cash and bonds are negative and falling. But the more positive outlook about the U.S. and the global economy implies that over time the Federal Reserve and other central banks will exit from quantitative easing and zero policy rates, which means that real rates will rise, rather than fall. [emphasis added]
Roubini’s fourth point may be the most important, as it implies that there is a relationship between the Fed’s policies, especially QE’s, and the rate of inflation. However, recent history, especially in the two years since gold crashed, has proven that totally and fully incorrect. There has been no “inflation” much at all, and even to the point that the Fed’s preferred inflation target, the PCE deflator, has come in under the policy target of 2% for 35 straight months dating back to just before QE3 was rumored.
If QE3 and QE4 had any impact on “inflation” or recovery in the US it is not apparent. For a time in 2013, Roubini’s “rising real rate” scenario seemed to be somewhat plausible as the entire UST complex and yield curve shifted upward. While the PCE deflator did not much move, that temporary rise in nominal yields brought real rates up and appeared at first as if it might reflect at least the near-future possibility of the recovery and recovery financial dynamics.
But that all turned around in October and November 2013. In other words, anything resembling the recovery in these financial terms had a very short life. By November 2013, nominal yields had slowed their ascent and the overall UST yield curve turned durably bearish. Though real rates fell once more in the middle of 2014 as “inflation” ticked up slightly, since October 2014 “inflation” has declined far faster than nominal yields. So real interest rates have been rising, but not for the reasons outlined by Roubini and his orthodox notions of recovery.
Clearly, there is “something” missing here beyond just the recovery economists were so sure that gold’s crash was foretelling. Normalizing both economic and financial conditions would mean interest rates rising back toward where they were pre-crisis just as “inflation” picks up and remains at or slightly above 2%. Neither of those factors is evident anywhere at all in the two years since gold prices crashed.
The idea of gold prices behaving like a zero-coupon bond is in some ways relevant to this problem. Economists only think of the asset side of that paradigm while never moving beyond that into liabilities. A government bond is an asset, sure enough, but it can also be part of the liability structure in repo. Just as government bonds act as collateral, so too does gold. That has led to strict and lasting misinterpretation about the behavior of gold in 2008, which Roubini tried to incorporate within his anti-gold stance.
But, even in that dire scenario, gold might be a poor investment. Indeed, at the peak of the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, gold prices fell sharply a few times. In an extreme credit crunch, leveraged purchases of gold cause forced sales, because any price correction triggers margin calls.
That isn’t what happened to gold, at all. You can disprove that theory rather easily, as I wrote contemporarily in April 2013 about the gold slam as it was occurring.
Gold prices crashed on three separate occasions in 2008, all of which were tied to problems in collateral chains and interbank financial irregularities. In the first episode, the price decline started when Bear Stearns failed and ended on May 2, 2008. That date stands out because that was the first time the Fed had expanded its list of acceptable and eligible collateral in its TSLF Schedule 2 to include non-GSE MBS paper as well as strictly non-mortgage ABS. In other words, the collateral implosion started by Bear Stearns “cold fusion” ended the moment the Fed debased not the currency or bank reserves but the list of “appropriate” interbank collateral.
As I described it in April 2013:
That means in times of extreme stress, gold acts like a universal liquidity stopgap – when all else fails, repo gold. The operational reality of a gold repo is a gold lease, charged at the forward rate (GOFO). In terms of market mechanics, a dramatic increase in gold leasing is seen as a massive increase in supply on the paper markets.
For various reasons in the past five years, collateral chains and the available collateral pool has dwindled dramatically. That has left banks to scramble for operational bypasses, but it also has led to periods of very acute stress. [emphasis in original]
As a representation of the “dollar”, then, gold prices act as a partial proxy of actual “dollar” availability balanced against that or any desperate bid for safety – and having very little to do with interest rate differentials.
That makes the trend in gold since QE3 started all the more interesting if we take in the “correct” context of the global “dollar.” Clearly, we cannot take falling gold as indicating a recovery because one never came and it surely looks to be further away now than then, an interpretation consistent with financial measures, yields and prices. But we can look at gold over the past three years since QE3 and link its behavior to that of the “dollar.”
While economists might still see QE as contributing to global “liquidity”, which it seems like it should what with all those trillions in bank “reserves” created, there has been persistent criticism of it as nurturing instead the opposite condition. The major part of creating all those bank “reserves” is to remove collateral in the process – transforming a repo-based system back toward a more-traditional idea of how banking used to work. But the wholesale system since August 2007 has been moving away from unsecured lending interbank and otherwise to almost purely repo.
The Fed has been very aware of this problem especially when it nearly destroyed repo in April 2011 (and then a desperate “dollar” problem only two months later?) by stripping the system of almost all t-bills toward the end of QE2 (which was the reason for Operation Twist). When planning and extrapolating for QE3, those operational constraints were at best secondary to the psychological effects that were supposed to accompany Bernanke’s massive and “open ended” monetary program. Getting everyone to “feel” better that the Fed was doing something big was meant as a far greater economic stimulant than the negative liquidity of depriving usable collateral in terrible quantities. The recovery from the defeat of pessimism, in Felix Salmon’s terms, was thought to be so much more powerful than the status of actual “dollar” circulation ability.
So much happy emotion was never really much of a “stimulant”, of course, but the negative factors on “dollar” circulation were very real. In many ways, the collapse in gold presaged this latest stage or leg in the collapse of the global “dollar”, eurodollars in particular, which starts to account for the economic behavior these past few years as well. Gold, then, since early 2008 has been telling us a lot about the tendency of the eurodollar standard toward outright imbalance and dysfunction. That is a condition that is not in any way conducive for a global recovery, which is one big reason why, despite orthodox giddiness over gold prices, it never came.
It also suggests that QE has acted as a depressant upon the global economy, net, depriving significant circulation ability in eurodollar channels and beyond. This would include not just reduced levels of collateral flow, but also bank balance sheet capacity overall in the full 2013 aftermath of QE3 and QE4. It would have been nice if gold’s price collapse was a signal of actual success, but instead it appears to be just another form of structural financial decay and the economic malaise (at best) that attends it. In that view, it is somewhat amazing that gold prices haven’t suffered further lower lows, which suggests that there may actually have been a significant safety bid all along. The “fear” bubble did not end; it was overwhelmed by QE’s depressive constant and the related countdown to the end of the eurodollar standard.
Gold price activity since QE3 has been a warning, and a big one, not cause for victory celebrations.
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I'm not emotional in my hatred of the FED....my hated comes from pure logic....
Keep stacking Bitchez!
If anyone is acquiring gold and silver this is a program that helps me buy the dips. Its not selling anything, just a calculator. It’s worked well for me and that’s why I’m passing it on. The more that are prepared during the upcoming monetary overhaul the better.
When PMs get smacked down 137 out of 138 times in a row on Sunday (or something like that), you can be sure it is not manipulation but The Hand Of God. So says the JPM atheists.
Oh who are we kidding? They are Lucies! Deception is their forte.
very longwinged article. He coulda just said:
1) the drop from $1800 to $1200 was based on false presumptions, so there's no reason the value of gold shouldnt be at least $1800 today (thats without even getting into the price manipulation evidence)
2) suppressing the price of gold = direct destruction of capital
remember that everytime the 'mysterious dumpers' sell half a billion in gold while major markets are closed: Its a beggar thy neighbour capital destruction war going on between factions of the oligarchy.
These dickheads are puncturing holes in the lifeboats. It aint just the poor and middle class in their crosshairs
i enjoy taking a jab at goldbugs from time to time but egad that was just awful from top to bottom.
I never really understood the logic behind the term "Goldbug" (I own a little gold and silver but I don't encourage others to do the same simply because I don't want to influence their thinking, it's their money.) But if there was a bug that I could equate to a paper hoarder it would be the Dung Beetle, toiling away every day in the hot sun collecting bits of fecal matter falling out of the ass of the big game, (sound familiar?) rolling them up in balls and squirreling them away in their holes. I guess they feed on it too so they got that going for them.
I agree with this 100% …… with what the criminals have done , it's amazing Gold hasn't dropped below $500. ......the safety bid has been there all this time......eventually it will go higher and not stop.
Somebody looked at the exponential increase in Asian demand when the price dropped into the mid $1100s and decided it would be certain central bank death if the price went to $500
I wish it would drop below $500, so that I could replace the pile I lost in the bottom of a lake while fishing one day!
In a world of over 1 quadrillion in cross collateralized derivatives, the absence of a counter party makes physical gold attractive. That said, it will not have value in our current system, it may have value in the next system whatever that is. If the current system survives, capital controls will be rampant and you will not be able to liquidate or trade AU.
Best bet for your money before the balloon pops - whiskey and whores.
Excellent point re: cross collateralized derivatives. 1 quadrillion sounds about right....not small change. This beast is so far out of control it boggles the imagination. No government or central bank or group of central banks can handle this thing. The fear that we were about to unleash this monster is probably behind QE and ZIRP.....they really had no idea how to avoid the melt down back in 2007-8 so they threw everything at it. We are now living in the vacuum created by these policies....the patient is on life-support and can't be taken off for even a moment without systemic break-down.....how long can we go on like this? My guess is that no one has the faintest idea. This is a new situation that we have never experienced in the past...the fact that we now have negative interest rates on bonds is proof that this economy is being artificially kept alive - and that they really don't know what else to do.
Single malt and a good book are my antidotes of choice.....although nothing can really keep the hounds of reality at bay....
im fucked if i know what the solution is.... but i do agree it involves particularly fine whiskey
My Trillion dollar Coin is going to be a bitch to liquidate.
Gonna have to use it as collateral I guess.
What an excuse for the gold bubble bursting. Doesn't make much sense to me. Gold really has no value other than what people are willing to ascribe to it, right now that's not even $1200/oz. There is a lot of it in the world and not much of it really needed on a day to day basis. That is the real problem, gold is not an economic good but it's sold as though it were. It's also not a financial asset although it's sold as though it were and finally, it's not money. It's metal, pure and simple. It's probably the prettiest metal which is why it's used in jewelry where it's true market exists.
What you say is true, but that's been true for hundreds of years. BTW, how has gold held up against commodities? Like oil?
Gold IS a commodity or at least is "traded" as one.
It may be traded as a commodity, but it has been currency since the beginning - so it my book, nothing has changed except for the way they manipulate it!
You're terribly confused about what money is.
Functional Definition of Money:According to this definition, money refers to anything that performs the four basic functions of money: (a) Medium of exchange; (b) Measure of value; (c) Standard of deferred payments; (d) Store of value. In the words of Crowther, “Money may be defined as anything which is generally acceptable as a medium of exchange and at the same time acts as a measure and store of value”.
Which money that you know of is a store of value?
According to that definition, then, when an authoritarian bank introduces new currency into the existing supply of currency then they are not counterfeiting but just printing money?
What of the origin of the money? What was the purpose of the invention? Does its introduction into the existing supply of currency, as money, represent that productive work was performed or was it introduced only to imitate that productive work was performed?
This definition may hold for currencies if and only if no more new currency is ever introduced into the existing pool. In this manner then, every exchange of values will be mediated by a measurer of the exchange. The reason for this is that without any new currency introduced then both sides of the exchange must perform productive work, they must be exchanging value for value...etc etc.
OC -> Latitude is describing money, he is missing 'the not easily counterfeited part, and has universal acceptance part. I see great confusion about money vs. legal tender. Legal tender is what Govts and central banks declare can be used to settle debts public and private. Tomorrow if the govt says salt is legal tender then salt can be used to settle debts public and private. Legal tender may not be a store of value if the central banks print too much. Gold cannot be printed and is scarce thus is a good store of value. It cannot pay a public debt, however can settle a private debt, or traded for legal tender to pay a public debt. It can be carried to foreign country and used to settle private debt as well, without the cost of exchange fees, therefore gold is a universal exchange medium. Gold is defined in the constitution along with silver as money, since our founders knew about the sins of the banque, with their paper IOUs called legal tender.
19 oz of gold would buy a new VW in 1971, 19 oz of gold will buy a new VW today. You cannot say that for federal reserve notes or legal tender.
Gold itself is not an investment, but a store of value - one does 'invest in money per se'. It does make good collateral for investing.
The definition of money??? What a silly game.
Money can be anything --- to anybody. The definition of money can be anything --- to anybody else. There is no sane reason why arguments over whether gold is money or not should follow some silly/arbitrary rules over the definition of money.
David Friedman’s 1996 book Hidden Order; specifically, this one is from page 14 of that outstanding volume: "Economists are often accused of believing that everything – health, happiness, life itself – can be measured in money. What we actually believe is even odder. We believe that everything can be measured in anything."
You like gold? silver? It matters not why to the person with whom you are trading.
Oh yeah? So what should I do with the gold I have now? What about the silver? What would you do? What should I invest in? Tell us all how to do it.
Not so mr wise man
Gold is a pm that follows the silver and as the silver industrial uses increase, gold becomes the go-to replacement as the silver supply diminishes. So to subscribe that gold is nearly useless is far from the truth and to express that gold is the most valued and held for the very last resort exemplifies its importance. Greece's anouther example of golds underpinning to the overall currency crisis or lack of liquidity ect...
Gosh I get sick of repeating this to the thoroughly brainwashed.
Gold has many industrial applications but due to its higher value as a scarce fungible monetary asset it is substituted with a cheaper option whenever possible.
It sure seems to have value to China & Russia
and TPTB
Gold is dead money at best, being targeted by every major regime for debasement, unless there is a real crash, and no one can predict when that might come, could be decades away, and if you waste your fiat buying gold, then your money will rot.
Oh yeah? So what should I do with the gold I have now? What about the silver? What would you do Prober? What should I invest in? Tell us all how to do it.
That's funny. Why didn't that Spanish loot sitting on the seafloor for centuries rot?
YOu must be a banksters who is buying gold lol.
What you say is a junior level investment philosophy, pure greed (always doubling down) leads to poverty (Zero). In the game of life (i.e. investing) you have to regularly skim out profits into stores of value (hard assets). Smart investors know it is not always about being 100% all in on wealth accumulating investments. A percentage of profits MUST be purged regularly as a hedge against all your locked up paper investments. How do you think 'families' stay rich over generations?
My interest in physical metals has less to do with QE and interest rates and way more to do with run away Asian physical demand
Never was but now I'm sure I'm not a fan of this clown.
From around the year 2000, DXY fell over 45% and gold advanced over 400%.
Gold takes out the highs if the long rates reverse in the same manner they fell.
Rates rise, marginal borrowers go belly up, production is taken off line, everyday prices rise, Fed raises again to stave off rising prices, more marginal producers can't reservice their debt, production goes off line and prices rise again, Fed raises again, repeat, repeat, etc. This is the opposite effect of the "deflationary" enviroment caused by lowering and lowering rates again and again.
Throw all your charts out!, everything is manipulated now.
If gold is so useless ,why has the BIS declared war on it???
They with fed and et al central banks are at war with mining outfits and their miners and as well the ETF that support the mine operations using the comex & LGBA as proxy tools
Once PM's go parabolic that is the signal that fiat is dead and the game is over. They have no choice but to keep it down while slowly and secretly accumulating what ever they can get their hands on, basically what ever crumbs are left over while China & Russia are on a buying binge
I keep thinking that eventually, there will be a price to pay for keeping PMs down so much.
My guess is that the price will become visible exactly the same time there is a visible down side for printing all that fiatskies.
But nothing about PMs have gone according to what I have expected.....
When gold and silver are priced in terms of actual supply and demand for the real thing and not some paper proxy, and the price plummets, I'll give credence to the author's theory.
As it stands, we have no way of knowing what central banks have in their vaults and how many claims there are against any given ounce. The fact that we haven't had a genuine audit since the days of Eisenhower, you'll excuse me if I'm more than a little skeptical about Fed claims.
They've been lying for years about everything else, yet we're expected to believe them about their gold holdings? Thanks, but no thanks. I'll keep stacking until the music stops on the global Ponzi scheme they've concocted.
Gold is no more priced in terms of paper proxy than it is priced in terms of dozens of fresh eggs. All it takes is a little conversion math. Why not quote it in number of eggs if you like that better?
If you like you can price it in bbls of WTI or pounds of Uranium. Choose whatever standard you want to follow. No matter what you use, there is no stability or constant conversion rate.
What do you mean it's not priced on a paper proxy? That's precisely how it's priced every damn minute.
When you look at the up-to-the-minute spot price, you're viewing the price based on the futures market. The futures market is not the physical market, which is why some crook can dump a pile of contracts when there's no volume. No one in his right mind would do something so absurd with gold he's trying to sell. He'd sell in increments to avoid having his asking price plummet in value.
This is blatant manipulation and an obvious price suppression scheme. It's fantastic for me personally, as I understand what these cretins are doing. If they want to put precious metals in the clearance bin, I'll back up the truck.
For the average Joe, however, it's a shitty deal. He's going to be left with worthless FRN's, a pension plan that gets wiped out, or has a bond fund that might as well be toilet paper.
It's the largest bank heist in history, except it's the bankers doing the stealing. If you want to place your trust in them, be prepared to be disappointed. And penniless.
Pretty good analysis, rise in gold repo when the crisis intensifies floods the place with more paper gold
Just show me any reasonable argument as to how the US is going to re-pay its national debt and meet its exploding entitlement liabilities, especially when we encourage every manufacturing job to locate outside the US? Convince me, and I will sell my PMs.
Do one of those fancy, Notify me when the Word Gold is mentioned in a news article, worldwide.. tricks and watch your mail box fill up.. if it's so worthless, why is everybody writing/talking/worried about it
Greenspan in 1998, before Congress: "Central banks stand ready to LEASE GOLD in increasing quantities, should its price rise."
William S. White June stipulated in 2005 (head of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank of International Settlements in Basel):
"One of the five main purposes of central bank cooperation is the provision of international credits and joint efforts to influence asset prices – especially gold and foreign exchange – in circumstances where this might be thoughtful."
Australian Central Bank 2003: "Foreign currency reserves and gold are held primarily to support intervention in the foreign exchange markets!"
Dutch central bankster Nout Wellink (CFR member and Bilderberger) always said to his colleagues: “There are two thing you can lie about as central banker, gold and interest rates.”
Jim Rickards about Gold Manipulation: “We call it market manipulation the central banks simply call it policy"
Dr. Jelle Zijlstra (formal head of the Dutch Central Bank and at the same time Head of the Bis in Basel from 1967 till 1981): “Gold is artificially kept at a far too low price.”
Dr. Zijlstra is describing exactly what still is happening today. http://marketupdate.nl/en/dr-zijlstras-final-settlement-gold-as-the-monetary-cosmos-sun/
“Gold is artificially kept at a far too low price.” Reason is to support the fiat dollar and hide the effect of QE to infinity.
In the Zijlstra period “the fiat was about to hit the fan,” and that’s exactly what is happening today.
The fiat dollar is about to hit the fan hence ‘Scheiss dollar’. Jim Willie’s name calling for the dollar is perfectly suitable.
The Scheiss dollar will be devalued 40%-50% against silver and gold. Other currencies linked to gold will appreciate.
Dr. Jelle Zijlstra on inflation: “the most gross social injustice” which “hits the less fortunate the most.”
Fuck what a confused writer.Gold has proven itself to be a poor inflation and war hedge in recent years.Yet writers like this think the past = the future.Anyway, gold is best a hedge against the incompetence of government.The QE launch indicated the central bank still had dry powder.So when QC failed that exposed government's shortcomings and gold rose again.See it can be explained in a few sentences.
For those who truly understand what's going on, the more they manipulate the price, the more you can be sure of very ugly things behind the scene. When it goes, it'll go like the 1981 movie Rollover. If you don't already have your golden chair, you'll have no place to sit when the music stops. Trading manipulated markets is just screwing around with OPM (Other People's Money), lyin' cheatin' and stealin' never lasts forever.
It is not rocket science. We have an absolutely unprecedented level of global debt after reckless central bank printing (let's call it what it is instead of QE). There are 3 ways to attempt to deal with the debt. 1. Increased economic productivity from self-sustaining economies; 2. A combination of printing and financial repression so that inflation eats away at debt levels and interest rates are kept artificially low; or 3. Default.
We are probably past the point of no return for option 1 and it is naive to expect it.
The Fed has clearly chosen option 2, and will pursue it unless/until it loses control of the markets.
Greece is looking at Option 3 and others will undoubtedly choose that as well, directly or indirectly.
Options 2 and 3 are quite bullish for gold/silver (physical of course) in the long run although prices are blatantly manipulated for the time being. There willl be a day of reckoning and some semblance of a market for gold/silver will re-emerge and prices will rise dramatically. It is a question of when not if. Until then, it is a buying opportunity . . .
Looks like a Bitcoin chart since Blythe Masters moved into bitcoin. Last Price $237
Blythe is probably getting ready to back kt with silver
I actually find my self emptying my safes pulliny it out and just staring it in amazedment quite often - so Fuck these dickheads telling me to buy bonds. I would rather get my hard on loking at my physical stacks!
The "fear trade" is over. Next up: The Horror Trade.
1973-2015. $35-$1200. 8% compound interest for who can do the math. nuf said.
+1 Excellent article. All collateral is fungible and even permanently destructable. No exceptions - houses, property, agriculture, bonds, any assets and gold is not immune and yet this analysis appears to demonstrate a permanent safety bid on gold even in the face of a rising currency that it is measured against. James Grant has eluded to this on several occassions but with significantly less detail. The bottom line is that while all other collateral will eventually whither under the manipulation of central banks, gold perseveres underscoring what gold bugs have known all along - its the only collateral worth talking about.
When ZeroHedge posts information that is full of factual errors or taps into the official dogma at one end and then into speculative dogma at the other while ignoring real research with results that tally with the real world, you can stop expecting people to pay attention. This is one of those really stupid articles which is full of holes. Third one this week.
Worship Bernanke - without his actions you would be eating bark and grass in 2008 --- and you would be dead by now.
He bought you 7 years of life. Kiss his ass
My guess is that the author of this article has not travelled very much. A completely western perspective. There is a whole other half of the world out there that could give a shit.... Until you see it for yourself, you don't realize how big the planet really is.
Gold has some upside left in the current bear market rally, but there is more downside to come before it finds a solid bottom as this chart shows...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/gold-elliott-wave-update-for-week-end...