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Greece Could Trigger a $9 Trillion Chain Reaction
Greece has had between two and three bailouts since its debt crisis began in 2010 (depending on what you believe constitutes a bailout). As stressful as the numerous rounds of negotiation have been from 2010 until 2015, Greek leaders have never before floated the idea of default.... until now.
Greece said Sunday that it won’t have the money it is due to repay to the International Monetary Fund next month unless it strikes a deal with international creditors over further rescue funding.
Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis told privately owned television station Mega that Greece is scheduled to repay EUR1.6 billion ($1.76 billion) to the IMF between June 5-19, but the payments cannot be met.
“This money will not be given,” he said. “It does not exist.”
This is a clear warning shot to the Troika. It’s the first time a Greek leader has threatened default publicly. Greece officially runs out of money in two weeks. So this situation will intensify.
I expect we’ll see greater volatility as a result. The general trend for the Euro is down, but there will be sharp “relief” bounces based on rumors and innuendos from any Euro “official” who wants the Euro to remain intact.
The Euro comprises 56% of the basket of currencies against which the US Dollar trades. So any Euro weakness will push the Dollar higher. This in turn will force Oil and commodities lower (as well as the stock market indexes for countries that derive most of their economic strength from commodities).
Will Greece default or is this a bluff? The larger implication is that Greece may be the straw that breaks the proverbial camel’s back: a Greek default or breakup from the Euro would, trigger considerable US Dollar strength.
The long-term US Dollar chart predicts a move to 120 in the coming months. The impact this will have on all asset classes will be severe. There are over $9 trillion in borrowed US Dollars sloshing around the investment world today. A move of this magnitude in the US Dollar would implode a significant percentage of this (remember what the US Dollar did to Oil in the second half of last year).
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It doesn't matter anymore, if you're Greece.
Even IF the troika caves (likely), they'll be just that much more in debt without the GDP growth to support their obligations. The GDP ain't there. Nor will it be. No matter what Greece does...IT WILL have to fix this, and that WILL include some measure of austerity and pain. Things in Greece will have to change if they are to survive, and they should be under no illusions about this.
But...they could at least be on their OWN to work through this without Schauble and the rest on their backs. Their suffering will at least be to improve THEIR lot, and not the goddamned troika's. The troika doesn't want a WORKABLE solution, and therefore, it's long past time to tell them to go to hell.
More debt from these bastards is definitely NOT the solution...
It would serve Europe, and especially, that Cold War menacing relic, NATO, right for Greece to ask for, and cut deals to have, financial assistance from Russia or China, or hell, the Middle East, if necessary.
Come to think of it, given the way the hegemonic godfather (US) is pissing the Chinese off in THEIR neighborhood over disputed affairs, THAT ARE NONE OF OUR BUSINESS, China may well jump at the chance to return the favor near the heart of Europe...
A belligerent EU, troika, and the rest, have brought this on themselves.
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Compartimos. A ultima hora volveremos a actualizar...: http://www.aseperfi.com/net/aatricnl/inftricmldx_23.htm
Greece said Sunday that it won’t have the money it is due to repay to the International Monetary Fund next month unless it strikes a deal with international creditors over further rescue funding.
"I can't service my loans, unless you loan me more money"
Sure, that is the solution, lend Greece money to pay it's unpayable debt service costs, and thus raise both absolute debt and future service costs. How fucking stupid are international financiers?
"The real problem is they just have not lent Greece ENOUGH money yet". Paul Krugman.
They want communism then let it be. Have the state take over all ownership of production and dole out payments to creditors. Bills first, people second.
>>> They want communism then let it be. Have the state take over all ownership of production and dole out payments to creditors.
In communism there are no creditors. No lending or borrowing, all deals are on a cash basis.
"Bills first, people second."
sort of like the ussa
lol
"Wars first"
"bills second"
"people last"
Can't Greece just email a bunch of ones and zeros for payment? The Fed does that...
The American Banks and the entire US Government defaults on it's debt everytime the Fed prints money, keeps ZIRP or add another QE, or as you say add a bunch of ones and zeros to the Fed's balance sheet. Greece is to Europe as California is the the US - Broke
How many times can a country default?
Greece is bluffing again and Greece does not want to leave the Euro..Greece is using this situation saying if we leave the whole things goes down because the rest of the PIIGS will get in line and do the same and the bankers don't want Greece out because of that and the bankers want to take Greece and sell parts off to the Rich.
Greece is bluffing again and Greece does not want to leave the Euro..Greece is using this situation saying if we leave the whole things goes down because the rest of the PIIGS will get in line and do the same and the bankers don't want Greece out because of that and the bankers want to take Greece and sell parts off to the Rich.
Calling Germany's bluff.
"After pouring 500 billion into Greece...
Greece already technially defaulted. The IMF won't let this happen it would be 2008 X 10 all over again. However, my charts are showing something big is about to take this market down.
what and when?
You charts tell you that huh? Are they Ouija Board charts?
no matter what happens in greece, the trigger will never be pulled.
Shaking my head and smiling ruefully. The script is, Greece will not leave the Euro. Greece will not be tossed over to Russia. There will be a can kick or a stick save and the DOW will rocket on the news. Gold and silver will make new lows for the 2011-present move. Count on it.
The biggest fear is Greece/Russia - how much will the EU/USA be willing to pay on an ongoing basis to avoid this scenario - freaking blackmail.
Otherwise the EU would F Greece
dup
The IMF and EU will keep on pushing till Greece breaks, but when the EU redid their bonds the CB's pushed default cost directly onto the ECB. Draghi will have a fun time explaining the need to print up trillions in magic money for the bankers while the proles are suffering a bad economy......
Merely not paying is not a default.
Not paying empowers the creditor to declare a default.
Not paying does not compel the creditor to declare a default.
Default is not meeting the obligations dfined in the debt instrument. Not paying defined payments is in fact a default. Whether or not a lender deems that debt to be in default or not does not change this fact.
The Greeks only need enough fiat to finish building their own euro printing press. Then they can print the money to repay the IMF. Problem solved.
They ought to give them a bag of paper with 0's and 1's on them.
Good points. We may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the world as we know it. Everything's in place. Just needs a spark and we're in for it.
Greece affects the world economy less than New Hampshire.
What is the REAL worry/agenda ?