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Peter Schiff Is Furious At "Double Seasonally Adjusted" Economic Data

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Days before the BEA made it official that it would "double seasonally adjust" GDP data so it is more in fitting with a recovery narrative, Zero Hedge first suggested that this is simply an exercise in giving Janet Yellen a green light for a rate hike later in the year as not even the Fed would dare proceed with tightening at a time when the first half of the year shows a GDP that is on the cusp of, if not outright, negative.

And while career economists, who have been wrong for about 6 years that the "imminent, self-sustaining" US recovery is just around the corner, were ebulient at this latest data fudge even if in reality it means that reported model data is increasingly more divorced from reality, one person who is less than euphoric about what it means is Peter Schiff.

Here is his take.

The Fed Considers a More Seasoned Approach

Just as the steady torrent of awful economic data, which began in the First Quarter and continued well into April and May, had forced many market analysts to grudgingly concede that 2015 would not see the robust economic growth that most had expected, the statisticians arrived on the scene like a cavalry charge and routed the forces of pessimism with a wave of their spreadsheets.

The campaign began in late April with some seemingly groundbreaking analysis by CNBC's Steve Liesman showing that over a 30 year time frame GDP data had consistently measured first quarter growth at 1.87%, which was far lower than the 2.7% rate averaged in the following three quarters of the year. He pointed out that the trend had gotten even more pronounced since 2010, when first quarter growth averaged just .62% and the remaining three quarters averaged 2.3%. The disparity caused Liesman, and others, to question whether first quarter data should be regarded as reliable.

The problem hinges on the efficacy of the "seasonal' adjustments that are baked into the GDP methodology. These filters are designed to smooth out the changes in spending, production, and consumption that occur over the course of the year. After all, business and consumers behave differently in December than they do in July.

When Liesman pressed the Bureau of Economic Analysis (the government entity that supplies the data) to explain his findings, the agency responded "BEA is currently examining possible residual seasonality in several series, which may lead to improvements in...the regular annual revision to GDP." We should understand "improvements" to mean changes that make first quarter GDP higher. A few weeks later the BEA provided some specifics saying methods for counting government defense spending and "certain inventory investment series" could be improved to help address the distortion. It promised to correct these deficiencies by July 30. It promised to correct these deficiencies by July 30. But to make sure that everyone understood that the help was definitely on the way, the BEA issued a blog post on May 22 in which it specified a number of areas in which it will eliminate what it calls "residual seasonality." This term should be accurately defined as "areas that we think should be higher."

As if on cue, the Federal Reserve itself waded into the debate with its own new study (released by the San Francisco Fed - Janet Yellen's former stomping grounds) that seemed to confirm and expand on Liesman's analysis and the BEA's concessions (makes one wonder if these campaigns are coordinated). Fed economists took a hard look at the disappointing .2% annualized first quarter 2015 growth, and determined that the seasonal adjustments that have been in use for years were insufficient to fully reveal the true health of the economy. When the San Francisco Fed added a second level of seasonal adjustments, it determined that Q1 growth should have been measured at 1.8% annualized. While that growth rate would not be considered strong, it is much closer to the 2.7%-3.0% that most forecasters had predicted at the end of 2014. No matter that the Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now," which was designed to be a more objective and contemporaneous measurement tool, was confirming near zero growth in Q1, many economists and media outlets jumped on the Fed study as proof positive that the economy is stronger than the pessimists portray.

In reality, few people actually understand how the complex and opaque seasonal adjustments really work (I know I don't). Fewer still have the patience to wade through the formulas to determine inefficiencies and potential remedies. This provides the statisticians with a good deal of convenient refuge against critics. But it's important to realize that unlike straight GDP measurement, which is ideally a strict accounting of spending, these adjustments can introduce an element of subjective institutional bias.

Government entities (and to a lesser extent media outlets) have many reasons to suggest that the economy is better than it really is. The Fed wants us to believe that its policies are effective; the Federal government wants us to believe that the economy is healthy, and financial media outlets depend on confident investors. I'm not saying that these biases are insidious or conspiratorial, but it does produce an environment where there is more emphasis placed on finding reasons to explain why GDP measurements are low, than there is to find reasons why it is too high. The subjectivity of the seasonal adjustments gives these biases room to run.

People understand that holiday spending juices GDP at the end of the year, and that post-holiday depletion and cold winters cause consumers to retrench. This causes them to try to compensate for the weakness in the first quarter. But there is no pressure for them to find reasons that GDP may be too high in December and May (when Christmas lists and pleasant weather should be encouraging shopping).

Given that, why do we really need seasonal adjustments in the first place? Yes December is different from July, but those differences persist every year. If we are looking at full year GDP, which is the measure that everyone is really after, why not keep a cumulative tally that we compare to prior years rather than prior quarters? Wouldn't this strip out a needless and opaque system of adjustments from a measurement system that is already overly complex to begin with? I believe the truth is the system is getting more complex because we want it that way. We prefer the ability to manipulate figures rather than allowing the figures to tell us things that we don't want to hear.

The real disconnect lies in the failure of the economy to grow, as most people assumed that it would, after the Fed's quantitative easing and zero interest rates had supposedly worked their magic. But as I have said many times before, these policies act more as economic depressants than they do as stimulants. As long as these monetary policies persist, our economy will never return to the growth rates that would be considered healthy.

In any event, many market watchers are grabbing at the San Francisco Fed report to conclude that Janet Yellen will raise rates this year, despite the weakness that the unadjusted GDP reports indicate. Such a conclusion is premature. I believe that the Fed wants us to think that the economy is strong, in the hopes that perception may one day soon become reality. If people think the economy is strong their optimism could influence their spending, hiring, and investing decision. As a result, optimistic Fed pronouncements should be considered just another policy tool; call it "open mouth operations." But I do not believe the Fed has any actual intention of delivering the rate increases that it may expect will damage our already weak economy.

 

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Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:29 | 6132361 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Did I mention that I hate Steve Liesman yet today?  Good.  I always try to say that at least once a day.

He's not even an economist.  He's a JOURNALIST who covers Economics as his beat.  And he doesn't even do that well.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:31 | 6132383 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

lol, I read that fast and thought you said he covers Economics and beats his meat!

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:34 | 6132394 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That may also be true.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:36 | 6132401 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Pick a number, any number.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:50 | 6132427 Captain Debtcrash
Captain Debtcrash's picture

It seems like they will do whatever it takes to justify a rate hike.  

This does mean they will double the summer seasonal adjustment down correct?  

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:57 | 6132458 whotookmyalias
whotookmyalias's picture

There is absolutely nothing wrong with beating your meat, and it's no less irrelevant in this discussion than the shit the FED shovels.

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:06 | 6132479 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Mix up the data how you want.. its still not good

Layoff / Closing List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

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Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:28 | 6132536 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

About the man, very interesting....from his wickedpedia page: 

Schiff was born to a middle-class Jewish family[10] in New Haven, Connecticut. His father is Irwin Schiff, an immigrant from Poland who is a prominent figure in the U.S. tax protester movement, who, as of 2015, was serving a 13-year sentence for tax evasion in federal prison.[11][12] 

I always thought he was associated with the terrible banking Schiffs!

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:30 | 6132550 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

I think he is.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:37 | 6132579 SpiOpsChiwowwow
SpiOpsChiwowwow's picture

"Peter Schiff Is Furious At..."

WHO GIVES A SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:45 | 6132607 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

I don't always agree with him but,

 

 "We prefer the ability to manipulate figures rather than allowing the figures to tell us things that we don't want to hear."

 

is pretty right on.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:35 | 6132978 clooney_art
clooney_art's picture

And Peter Schiff thought Gold was going to $5000 soon.

Dude, the Federal reserve will create growth out of thin air with smoke, mirrors and dry ice.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 14:44 | 6133185 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

We can always kick back and relax as Connecticut goes bankrupt anyways.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 16:41 | 6133634 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

Jersey too.

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 01:14 | 6135081 napper
napper's picture

The FED will do whatever it can to delay the demise of the dollar, but it cannot deflect the demise.

 

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:05 | 6132674 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

He'll be really mad when they start triple seasonally adjusting the numbers.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:09 | 6132687 prefan4200
prefan4200's picture

Or they could be really bold and skip the triple seasonally adjusted numbers and go straight to the triple dog dare seasonally adjusted numbers.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:52 | 6132633 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Don't think he is really in jail. There is a look a like in there. Just like Ken Lay and even Tim McVeigh. They are all stiil alive and living the high life.

https://youtu.be/Vgfi1QZILxk

 

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:54 | 6132638 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Interestingggg..,,

that said, mean crowd tonight? 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 14:54 | 6133225 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Seeing only ethnicity can be blinding and counterproductive, and just what the Zionist would like us to do.

The problem is Zionism, not Judaism. While most Zionist are Jewish, not all are (Corzine?!). Zionists hide behind their ethnic Judaism as a shield. So while being Jewish is often a red flag of Zionism, it should be that person's behavior that truly defines whether he is a Zionist or not.

And then what is a Zionist's chief defining behavior or orientation? That would be plunder. If a person is suspected of being a Zionist and their lives and behavior are oriented toward power and plunder, then in all likelihood, they are a Zionist. As the saying goes, "You will know them by their fruits."

As for Schiff, he seems to forthright and honest; Just as horrified as the rest of us to the plundering tyranny that we are surrounded by. This can be evidenced by his many truth to power interviews he has given on noiZ-media. That he is invited less and less on these propaganda soapboxes is evidence that he is not just some shill playing a part.

His father did not just "evade" taxes, but proved that the DC US is unlawfully taxing people on their incomes. For this he was persecuted, thrown in a gulag, and his book banned.

Don't just see the ethnicity, see the behavior.

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

 

One can see Zion and the workings of Zionists in many ways, but the easiest is 9/11. 9/11 IS Zion thru and thru. Look into 9/11, and in short order you will be right up to your ass in Zionist alligators.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:29 | 6132543 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Just keeps getting better.

They'll have this place completely gutted in no time.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:25 | 6132946 yrad
yrad's picture

Double, secret, probation.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 18:14 | 6133967 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

One of the interesting things about going to dailyjobcuts.com daily is how it is apparent that Sears/Kmart are in a slow-mo liquidation.

One or two new closings a week it seems.

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:05 | 6132476 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

You just need to torture the data till it confesses, I figure triple seasonal adjustments are next......

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:03 | 6132668 cooky puss
cooky puss's picture

Their version of data "waterboarding", by yours truly the B(L)S gang ;-)

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:47 | 6133013 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Re: Pick a Number, Any Number:

Red?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:38 | 6132402 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Liesman, he's a dead man! Krugman, dead! Bernanke,....

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:09 | 6132689 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

"Guess what i (the market) am now....."

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 14:04 | 6133052 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture
IIIIIIII hate those guys!
Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:33 | 6132391 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

Crazy idea, how about we don't seasonally adjust anything. The number is just by what % did the economy grow or contract over the past quarter. Same with jobs data, and all the rest of it.

And schiff better watch out talking like this, if the bernank heard him saying these things, he might not wanna be friends any more...

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:40 | 6132410 r101958
r101958's picture

Yes, and regarding another statistic, how about we get rid of the 'birth/death model' too?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:27 | 6132532 Perimetr
Perimetr's picture

Here's how they do the math:

First: Decide Upon a Final Figure

Second: Develop a variety of formulas to arrive at the Final Figure

 

It is the same methodology they use to create "safety standards" for the nuclear industry

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:35 | 6132399 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"Steve Liesman"

His name says it all.

That other guy, Ron Insana, reminds one of Jason Alexander.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:44 | 6132424 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

I just love how he has changed the pronunciation to "lease-man".  your a LIES-MAN no matter how you pronounce it

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:49 | 6132441 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Shrinkage!"

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:28 | 6132539 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Bastard.  You beat me to it.

+1 from Kirk 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:44 | 6132426 oudinot
oudinot's picture

With you NoDebt, I hate the prick too but I think him being a journalist  is perfect training  for his role.

 He's not about numbers, he's  disseminating  'propaganda'; that's journalism school.

It probably helps him in his progaganda campaign as he remains ignorant of technical economnic factors; ie reality.

IGNORANCE IS BLISS.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:32 | 6132556 ATM
ATM's picture

He is first and foremost a propagandist for the leftist totalitarians.

Journalist? Is there such a thing any longer?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:49 | 6132622 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Nope, has not been for a long time....bought up, paid for and telling lies man, telling lies...

https://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/09/21/meet-the-press/

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:05 | 6132471 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Did you know that Liesman spent time in the former Soviet Union? It's not an accident that he's on this financial network misinforming people as we go down the rabbit hole of economic collapse. He's firmly on the list of traitors of this country.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:35 | 6132567 ATM
ATM's picture

Joe Kernan got Liesman to admit recently when questioned about his time in Moscow that socialism sucks. Too bad Kernan didn't ask the compelling follow up question, "well how about Communism?"

Everyone in the world agrees that socialism sucks but some people believe it is a necessary evil on the way to the workers nirvana. I'd bet that liesman is on that team.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:52 | 6132632 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

I think he was asst bureau Chief  for WSJ in Moscow.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:47 | 6132611 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Steve Liesman is a journalist? Could'a fooled me. I thought he was a lieing stinking mother fucking shit mouthed card reading face plant of the oligarchy.

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:26 | 6132362 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Stay away from nail guns Pete!

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:27 | 6132367 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Double-secret probation.  Time for Delta House to rule.  This show is taking a powder and we're all going to sweat blood over it.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:40 | 6132409 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

College

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:30 | 6132551 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Just don't bang the Dean's wife.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:27 | 6132369 Parsecs Taxi
Parsecs Taxi's picture

The economy grew robustly for the people that matter, the winners.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:29 | 6132377 This is it
This is it's picture

Calm down Pete, this is normal.

And your existence isn't gonna change the future of things.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:30 | 6132379 Pintergast
Pintergast's picture

Schiff is right, as usual. It's only a matter of time before this whole rigged fantasy blows up.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:48 | 6132435 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

 

 

What is real ain't exactly a fantasy. 

When the illusion is over and the con artists flee who will hold real things of value and who will be left holding the bag?

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:36 | 6132575 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

No doubt. "In the long run".

But this does NOT help us endure the "Slings and arrows of outrageous fortune", as some guy from Denmark noted about (his) family politics. 

To profit, or not to profit. That is the question.

What do you have to say about that, for Pete's sake, Mr. Schiff?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:59 | 6132655 magnumpk
magnumpk's picture

He's put into words far better than I could something I was thinking over the weekend.  "Open mouth operations." The Fed has resorted to just trying to talk up the economy.  Pitiful.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:31 | 6132381 truthserum
truthserum's picture

So wrong for so long so sad.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:41 | 6132413 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

You're right. You should listen to liesman instead. Since this rally we have witnessed is entirely based on sound economic fundamentals, you should go all in, ignore schiff. In fact, you should leverage up as much as possible to maximize your gains.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:37 | 6132795 truthserum
truthserum's picture

There's knowledge, there's complete lack of knowledge, and then there's negative intelligence. Negative intelligence causes you to do things when you would've been better off doing nothing. Unfortunately, many people here have negative intelligence and blame magical manipulation for their losses.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 18:34 | 6134035 Blankenstein
Blankenstein's picture

Is that you Mike Norman?

 

An oldie, but goodie:

Mike Norman, super douche and a 90's permed realtard laughing at Peter Schiff's CORRECT predictions in 2007 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoZV5jt9puc

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:31 | 6132382 Robert3620
Robert3620's picture

I sure John Williams must be liking this. Yet one more thing for him to put out the none adjusted numbers on.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:31 | 6132384 Calculus99
Calculus99's picture

"In reality, few people actually understand how the complex and opaque seasonal adjustments really work"

All by design of course.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:32 | 6132387 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Call out for more accountants who can adjust to the reality of whatever is put in front of them to validate. Job pays well...

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:33 | 6132393 JRobby
JRobby's picture

"the Fed's quantitative easing and zero interest rates had supposedly worked their magic. But as I have said many times before, these policies act more as economic depressants than they do as stimulants."

And so we have what we have had for going on 7 years. More debt with less GDP to service it. Will be seen as the great blunder that it is once the spin machine stops.


Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:09 | 6132690 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

And don't forget the principle which ZH identified:

QE on; stocks up, bonds down.

QE off; stocks down, bonds up.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:36 | 6132404 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Our nation has been ignoring facts in favor of fancies since the beginning of the Great Society.  Our welfare state has largely failed to deliver in terms of teaching people to fish in hopes they will choose to live more productive, content lives.  Negro crime, incarceration, unemployment, and reliance on 'the dole' remain stubbornly higher than other ethnicities. When our government is trumpeting 'diveristy is our greatest strength' despite the data, it is only a matter of time until that lie spreads.  The USA has become hopelessly corrupted as a government concept.  It's time to focus on what's next, and how to make that happen.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:38 | 6132407 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

Fortunately for us, constipated mathemeticians can just work things out with pencils.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:40 | 6132408 JoeTurner
JoeTurner's picture

Since 99% of the sheep have no idea what any of this means to their future it reminds me of "if a tree falls in the forest" metaphor...

All around my suburban 'hood I see more stores closing, some having been around 50 years...it's kinda bizarre...

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:44 | 6132605 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Clearly you're not on the West Coast (US and Canada), where the Chinese and Indians are buying up RE.

It's not just the Mexicans who are changing the demographics.  Easy to see why: I'd take 'Cascadia' over the Rust Belt or Fry Belt any day.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:42 | 6132415 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

You proles, it's Federal magic!

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:42 | 6132417 BeaverCream
BeaverCream's picture

I just wish Pete would stop pretending he's not part of the "conspiracy crowd" when he's blatantly calling out these conspiratorial activities by the FED. 

I just want to hear him say "There is a worldwide elite that is involved in pushing the globe toward a New World Order, single form of currency, and complete control over the economic activities of individuals worldwide."

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:04 | 6132457 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"There is a worldwide elite that is involved in pushing the globe toward a New World Order, single form of currency, and complete control over the economic activities of individuals worldwide."

and I would just wish you and all those who drank this kool-aid would wake up

yes, there is an elite that pushes for NWO, and another that pushes or prepares for a single form of currency, and another that is keen on control of economic activity, and another that has something against too much individuality, etc. etc. etc. Judicious use of "Venn-diagrams" helps, then some are in several such camps

but implying that they are one, and worldwide... my goodness, if that was true there would be no conspiracy theory whatsoever

take currency: the USD system is still here. China calls for an SDR... or gold/commodity-based. even the frigging Chinese Elites give two options. And that's a totalitarian one-party regime that relaxed some controls on economic activity, remember? And they have some shooting wars among them, from time to time

there is a currently reigning world (reserve) currency, and that is the USD. I hope you do understand this little wrinkle in your "Unified NWO Theory" straight out of the propaganda machine

take MIC: the American Military-Industrial Complex does reign. but it can't, alone. It needs some foreign, potentially hostile MICs. And since it morphed into a Security Complex, it needs lots of hostility, and fear

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:06 | 6132478 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

And don't forget the elite that really do acknowlege an individual's right of way to voluntary act upon the demand of their intellect, that acknowledge the appeal to a governing body to use any compulsion at all as only to remove the compulsion required to impede an individual's right of way. ...though they are very few. 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:20 | 6132507 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

or, to simplify your comment: what's the fucking sense of being part of any elite if you have to jump through every loop in the same way as the frigging non-elites?

another way to say that a lot of members of elites worldwide are very, very individualistic, strong-willed, opinionated and very difficult to herd anywhere

oh, and a lot of them are, ideologically speaking, pro-liberty, particularly for themselves. statism? bah, that's means, not goals

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:28 | 6132540 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

ghordius is missing something in the elite vs us equation..progress in population mind control, msm..and such have given the elites tools they never had.,.,and the understanding you are IN the club or you are NOT.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:51 | 6132627 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

overmed, one little thing that might shock you: there is no frigging tool that is more powerful then nature, in the selection of elites

you are male, aren't you? if a young woman with the face and body of a supermodel, the charisma of the kind only one out of 10'000 has and the will of a true leader enters your room...

... chances are you won't even ask "how high?", you might end up jumping as hard as you can and not stop until requested

of course, doing it on industrial scale needs more then just talent. even Putin has to work hard (serious) for hours in the question/answer TV shows

but the "feeling" of the elites is the same as for citizens. the demand. "I am in the Club, otherwise the Club would be wrong"

FREEDOM IS A DEMAND (yes, not from me, there is a different ZH commentator that ends all his comments with the beginning of this sentence)

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:22 | 6132728 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

("Liberty is a demand, Tyranny is a submission" per ZH login Kchrisc.) ...could be the greatest bumper sticker ever.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:31 | 6132548 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

Yes, the proper means beget the necessary goals. Not vice versa.

Off the topic:

Have you ever had the moderators here delete one of your comments?

I had a comment in the recent I-Tunes thread a couple of pages back that basically called the sensationalism of the article akin to the claims of the Luddites. Rather than one of the moderaters log in with their persona of the moment and discuss the comment, it simply is no longer there. 

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:48 | 6132617 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

yes. but usually for being part of a whole thread that was full of rubbish. neither accusing nor defending, here, the owner of ZH seems to have a "rip the whole wall or leave all graffiti" policy

if you want to have a Tyler popping up... you have to tickle their interest. elaborate taunts help. but I understand they prefer to leave most of the comment section as free as possible, as far as the european laws concerned allow

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:18 | 6132712 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

Thanks. Taunting is not my nature and whether a Tyler explicitly emerges or not is not my gig.

While this is arguably the greatest trolling forum developed, and I was nevertheless very surprised at the hypocrisy. The moderators are always very quick to pound their chest and gloat when they identify the facts correctly but when the blaze of day meets them they simply turn off the light? The thread is still there and as far as I can tell just my comment was removed.

I suppose it is their indiscreet way of removing the Welcome salutation before my name when I'm logged in and transforming the salutation into GTFO.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:54 | 6132641 DogOfSinope
DogOfSinope's picture

Off topic, but look what happens when someone with a poor grasp of Venn diagrams try to apply one:
https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/thomson-reuters-venn-diagra...

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:29 | 6132767 Chump
Chump's picture

"Yes, we do those things!  You know, not often, but occasionally!"

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:36 | 6132786 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

I believe you. Your house, your rules. No biggie.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:43 | 6132421 SERReal1
SERReal1's picture

0 + 0 = 2. Nothing to see here, move along.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:45 | 6132430 viator
viator's picture

"We prefer the ability to manipulate figures rather than allowing the figures to tell us things that we don't want to hear." As in the "global warming" fraud.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:57 | 6132459 joseJimenez
joseJimenez's picture

global warming is not a fraud...  It is a Con!  One to create revenues for the globalists to fund the financial and regulatory infrastructure.  Just like the IRS, when it started it was just an emergency measure of 3-5% and only on the rich.  Now we can see what it has become.  It exists to help pay for the interest on the money our parasitic gov borrows from those SOB.   Same old new thing.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:58 | 6132460 joseJimenez
joseJimenez's picture

global warming is not a fraud...  It is a Con!  One to create revenues for the globalists to fund the global financial and regulatory infrastructure.  Just like the IRS, when it started it was just an emergency measure of 3-5% and only on the rich.  Now we can see what it has become.  It exists to help pay for the interest on the money our parasitic gov borrows from those SOB.   Same old new thing.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:46 | 6132434 aliki
aliki's picture

why is anyone surprised at this? i seem to remember a few years back, they "tweaked" the GDP calculation to include government spending. we did that and still can't get north of 3.0% under obama. now, this fuggin non-sense with the weather (i seem to remember we had worse cold & snow under reagan YET we were still able to grow between 6-9% during his presidency & created 400,000-900,000 jobs a month VS obama's MAX job creation of 350,000-400,000).

bottom-line, "they" don't like the # because it doesn't make "their" economy look good, NO PROBLEM! just change the calculation and POOF!!! better LOOKING economy to the idiots who do nothing more than ARE READ the topline #. unfortunately over the years, there have been more people "created" to vote this line of thinking.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:49 | 6132438 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Not understanding the hedgers here.  Double Seasonally adjusted is BEARISH for stocks, as it gives the fed cover to raise rates.  If it were singly adjusted data the fed would be instead talking about QE4....

 

Ya gotsto understand bad news is bullish, good news is bullish.... and no news is well bullish.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:25 | 6132522 aliki
aliki's picture

@gatorengineer: i think the single biggest issue to c-banks around the world is to show the economies are falling into the - as far as GDP is concerned (on paper of course, we all know the real-deal). if that is allowed to happened (especially after 7 years of this BS) they will officially be proven wrong.

while i agree with u that bad news is bullish, good news is bullish, no news is bullish, the only thing that i don't "main street" could handle (as it pertains to the stock market) is that we are "technically" falling back into recession.

just imagine where the yield on the U.S. 10-year & where the stock market would be if we 1. were accurately calculating GDP and 2. accurately calculating inflation. we'd be stuck in stagflation hell (which is where i personally believe we are, have been, and pretty soon "they" are not going to be able to hide it). all this BS maneuver does is pro-long the inevitable (yet again).

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:49 | 6132439 Chippewa Partners
Chippewa Partners's picture

Dean Wormer should put the whole bunch on DOUBLE SECRET PROBATION!

That will teach them........

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:49 | 6132440 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Wheel... Of... Fortune!

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:51 | 6132444 Monetas
Monetas's picture

Trofim Lysenko scientific method comes to BEA !

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:53 | 6132447 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

the economy is GOING TO CRASH WAY HARDER WHEN THE FED RAISES RATES AS A RESPONSE TO FINANCIAL CONTAGION. 

 

when it does------the fed wants people to believe that this is not the fault of the fed. 

 

so propoganda is important.  if the fed loses the propoganda war, and guys like rand paul are president, you will see an increasing fight against the fed. 

 

and the banker cartel is going to have its first fight in about 100 years. will rand fold like nixon did. i'm not so sure nixon folded. the nazis are plenty willing to play ball with the fed. 

 

it's just about everyone else who the fed has to worry about. the unwashed masses will be in play. 

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 10:54 | 6132453 crackpuff
crackpuff's picture

My prediction...2H 2015 takes off like a rocket ship......in the wrong direction

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:04 | 6132669 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

There is a lot to get angry about. Especially when the Federal Government, Federal Banking System, Federal Budgeting, Federal Domestic Policy, Federal Foreign Policy... are all Occult. Like govt stats for GDP & Inflation and in what sectors the biggest money creation takes place... Not the FED, but TBTF Banks and maybe Shadow Banks individually could have created more annually than the FED.

" JPMorgan Chase & Co. put allegations of currency-fixing largely behind it with a guilty plea, but it’s not out of the woods yet.

With its new felony record, America’s biggest bank needs to seek the Department of Labor’s permission to keep managing money in the $8 trillion private pension market. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-26/jpmorgan-s-guilty-plea...

- Who wants to bet that JPM will be completely forgive as a TBTF bank
- Who doubts that TBTF Banks and the Wealthy have Sovereign Immunity

Anyone that believes US Banking is conservative and secure probably thinks the Federal Government is under control too.

Risk? Complexity Risk? Credit Linkages Risk? Derivatives Risk? Hey if one company trades $1.4 Trillion a day in derivatives I'd say they were risk.

- Debt Overhang
- Risk Overhand
- Derivative Overhang
- Complexity Overhang

And they deliberately made International Banking, Central Banks, and US/UK Finance so complex that few people can understand it let alone fix it when it blows up.

That is called Creating a Niche for yourself, Creating Job Security. And it's working as we witnessed Congress turning over power to TBTF to write their own Bailout, manage their own bailout, and give themselves bonuses for their own bailout.

Racketeering is a clear crime which DOJ, Loretta Lynch, and the FBI are Required to face, Investigate, and Expose as they Prosecute. otherwise they are breaking the Law and are at risk of Prosecution and removal in Disgrace.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:04 | 6132473 lester1
lester1's picture

I really like Peter Schiff's podcasts. 

 

Steve Liesman is a pathetic recovery cheerleader. The guy disgust me with his bs economic recovery rhetoric.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:04 | 6132474 Klemens
Klemens's picture

David Vose’s commentry on Rothschilds historic deal with US Government. “It would never have been suspected, no one could have imagined. that, one mans wealth could grow over several centuries, into such proportions, that, they would be able to buy the government of the United States, out right. You could argue that it is a joining of forces of some kind, but, that would not be accurate, The U S Government is owned by the American People, we had nothing to do with this merger. What has happened is more like a literal take over. They took the government without a shot fired, and since they had established so many chains of command, over centuries of time, and since they gave so many the illusion that they are, also, profiting from the Rothschild’s, and the US, MERGER.”

http://beforeitsnews.com/blogging-citizen-journalism/2015/05/rothschilds...

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:08 | 6132482 anachronism
anachronism's picture

Just stop adjusting the data completely!

We are not morons. We can compare raw numbers year over year and sequentially without difficulty.

Raw numbers cannot be "nuanced"; but they can be explained and contextualized just as easily -more easily, I argue- as the "seasonally-adjusted" "data" has been.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:18 | 6132503 The Shodge
The Shodge's picture

The only good economic indicator is the balance of my bank account. And it is NOT going up.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:51 | 6132840 truthserum
truthserum's picture

Then you need to fire the person that handles your finances. That person just missed one of the greatest bull market runs in history.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:28 | 6132537 Scooby Doo
Scooby Doo's picture

Possible Translations:  If we can fool all the sheep, all the time, we will get rich.  Fake it til we make it! As long as the idiots believe what we tell them, rather than what they experience, they will spend.

 15m15 minutes ago

As long as remains sturdy & the continues to improve, an upshift in spending should eventually materialize

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:29 | 6132542 Jtrillian
Jtrillian's picture

Put Jim Rickards in charge of the FED, Peter Schiff in charge of the Treasury and Eric Hunsader in charge of both the SEC/CFTC.  Things would be a lot better than they are today. 

If you don't know who these people are, they you should.  They are the GOOD GUYS.

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:33 | 6132559 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Rickards is a shill.

Talks as fast as a used car salesman.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:35 | 6132789 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I think Rickards tells it like it is but that doesn't necessarily mean that he advocates for SDRs, for example. 

 

Not his fault if SDRs are looking like the path of least resistance that the TPTB are on. More, he advocates for physical possession of gold and repeatedly says the FED is run by idiots, they totally suck, and that we are headed for disaster. So if he's a shill I don't see it. ..

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 14:02 | 6133057 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

You mean sdr's that are 60% US dollars?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 23:59 | 6134953 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

LTCM

nuff said

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:26 | 6132948 Jtrillian
Jtrillian's picture

I think you are confusing Jim with Ben Bernanke.  History will show Ben's policies of rewarding those who crashed the financial system in 2008 only lead to a worse crash.  This is what happens when you reward bad behavior. 

I don't fault a person for talking fast... especially when they have a lot to say.

Wed, 05/27/2015 - 01:06 | 6135072 napper
napper's picture

Jim Rickards has some connection to the CIA.

 

Got to be careful when listening to what he has to say. Sometimes it might be a mixture of truth and government propaganda.

 

Peter Schiff is good for real economics, but lousy on real world dirty politics. I don't think he understands that the US is being run by a group worse than mafia.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:32 | 6132555 Pumpkin
Pumpkin's picture

It's a tower of Babel.  You aren't supposed to understand it, just worship it.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:41 | 6132582 silentboom
silentboom's picture

Keep in mind this doesn't work in all things.  During spring break I tried to explain that my age had been seasonally adjusted downward. Now I'm on a sex offender list.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:43 | 6132602 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

Meanwhile, unemployment numbers are being seasoned to taste.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 11:57 | 6132652 jomama
jomama's picture

What's he gonna do about it? Stomp his feet? Make a youtube video?

 

Shit is so far gone past the point of repair that I don't see the point in complaining about it anymore.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:28 | 6132665 sirik
sirik's picture

"But I do not believe the Fed has any actual intention of delivering the rate increases that it may expect will damage our already weak economy."

A unmanipulated rate, a rate as a result of the free market, a higher rate, will cure the economy. Not in the beginning but after a while.

There is no alternative for Goldilock anymore. The suffering will lead the healing.... the sooner the better.

 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:18 | 6132713 Eric L. Prentis
Eric L. Prentis's picture

The Fed, politicians, large corporate controlled TV, radio and newspapers, Wall Street and businesses all lie to Americans 24/7. Because many people believe these lies does not mean that when people have difficulty finding good jobs, they will believe the economy is strong just because someone tells them so.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:32 | 6132778 CHC
CHC's picture

The TRUTH?!?  We don't need no stinking truth!

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:53 | 6132851 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

It's TROOF if youse don't got no teef!

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:52 | 6132843 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

He obviously knows very little about 'Inverted Hemi-Demi-Semi-Quaver Multipler Quant Modelling!'

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:53 | 6132847 Mini-Me
Mini-Me's picture

Governments lie.  They lie about everything: war, torture, spying.  Yet we're supposed to believe their statistics about the economy reflect reality?  Please.

Just assume everything coming from the government is a lie.  And I do mean everything.  They are pathological.  They can't help themselves.  It's a sickness, really.

That individuals and businesses invest and operate based on government data baffles me.  Folks, they're lying, so stop listening.  

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 12:55 | 6132856 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Since when?

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:28 | 6132957 LetsGetPhysical
LetsGetPhysical's picture

Since forever.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:04 | 6132887 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

There ain't no Grote!

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:09 | 6132898 franciscopendergrass
franciscopendergrass's picture

Since performance enhancing drugs have been banned from most professional sports, can we ban them from the FED and government

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:09 | 6132901 Anunnaki
Anunnaki's picture

Lies, damned lies and gov't statistics

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:13 | 6132912 Klemens
Klemens's picture

Maybe Grexit on the 06-01-2015! It is a holiday in Greece.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:17 | 6132919 blakeist
blakeist's picture

Peter Schiff is the real Tyler Durden. The guy has been pretty much spot on with regard to predicting the Fed's policy decisions over the years. Unfortunately, the media does a great job ignoring his warnings, but I don't think they'll be able to shun him much longer.

 

Look up "Peter Schiff was right" on Youtube.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:23 | 6132942 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Liesman is controlled coalition.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:27 | 6132949 LetsGetPhysical
LetsGetPhysical's picture

The FED be all like:

"Attention comrades attention! Hear this glorious news."

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:33 | 6132953 chubakka
chubakka's picture

i just dont understand why they dont have triple and quadruple seasonal adjustments, like one for each season.  i mean really, what are we paying these people for? 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 13:55 | 6133045 BoPeople
BoPeople's picture

People such as Schiff are needed by those in control so as to give the appearance of independent thought.

Controlling both sides of an argument is always the goal ... Schiff may be cooperating willingly or he may just be an unconscious dupe who gets his jollies from the spotlight.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 14:04 | 6133063 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

Peter is a great guy, but I just wouldn;t have wanted to have invested with him in 2008 and lost most of my money.  He doesn't see the big picture or seem to realize just how much control the central banking cartels have and how conected they are.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 14:49 | 6133203 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Why do they need to fuck with data? Just leave it alone. Some months will be unusually high, some months unusually low. Having noisy data doesn't mean the data is completely useless. You can still draw trend lines on noisy data. The trend lines are more useful when averaged over a longer period of time.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 15:01 | 6133252 nakki
nakki's picture

The whole world is one big ponzi scheme. Mark to fantasy, make believe statistics, with a boogie man under every bed. The world is run by pathological liars and pyscho/sociopaths.

Just another number that was bullshit to begin with getting bullshitier. When you can revise a number 80 years in the past what does it matter. 

Worthless statisticians trying to pretend that their existence is justifiable, fucking children.

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 16:00 | 6133487 PleasedToMeatYou
PleasedToMeatYou's picture

Anybody know how Peter's company, EuroPacific Capital (lately of Puerto Rico) is doing? 

Tue, 05/26/2015 - 16:15 | 6133551 Magooo
Magooo's picture

He's not a journalist - he is an ACTOR.

 

Just as all those in front of the MSM cameras are ACTORS.

 

They read lines provided by the Ministry of Truth -- of teleprompters and nothing more.

 

Just like the president .....

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