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Today's Economic Data Enough To Push Q2 GDP By Whopping 0.1% To 0.8%
... at least according to the Atlanta Fed. Based on the one GDP model which hasn't lost all credibility and which for the past 3 months has captured the attention to wannabe weathermen and other Wall Street strategists, today's bevy of stronger than expected data, everything from Durable Goods, to core CapEx, to New Home Sales, to Case Shiller, to Consumer Confidence, and even the Richmond Fed was sufficient to push Q2 GDP... by 0.1% to 0.8%.
From the Atlanta Fed GDP Now webpage:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 0.8 percent on May 26, up slightly from 0.7 percent on May 19. Following this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real equipment investment growth increased from 3.5 percent to 5.1 percent while the forecast for the change in inventory investment in 2009 dollars increased from -$22 billion to -$19 billion.
Perhaps today's market reaction, with yields tumbling and telegraphing that the reflation trade is gone and with stocks at LoD, is actually completely reasonable and normal in light of the fact that according to the Atlanta Fed, the US economy is still contracting in the first half, laughable seasonal adjustment notwithstanding.
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Needs further adjustment.
downward revision for feb and march durable orders ... a(nother) arrow in back of Q1 GDP revision
heh heh
Bill Gross (so far) getting crushed on his short bund call.
Pretty much called top on yield
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/TMBMKDE-10Y?countrycode=BX
Lots of problem with US Leadership, US BAR Association, US Bankers Cartel... American Ingenuity. OR more like Injun-knewity, Guerrilla Warfare.
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"Senator Elizabeth Warren spoke on the Senate floor on February 26, 2015 about the Investor-State Dispute Settlement provision in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement."
http://econintersect.com/pages/video_master.htm
The Pacific Trade Deal's Big Winner
May 22, 2015, Carl T. Delfeld
"As Pacifica 200 predicted months ago, the U.S. Senate approved fast-track authority yesterday, moving ahead the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)."
"Countries as diverse as Australia, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Japan, Singapore, Canada, America, Peru and Vietnam are negotiating an ambitious pact that will supercharge trade and investment in the Pacific Rim."
Article reminds us that there is a Strategic Value for the USA in its hegemony in Asia and competition with China.
- Author provides some ideas for investment plays specifically in Vietnam who he says will be a big winner.
- Japan also looks to be a big winner and wonder if it has provisions for moving people from Fukushima areas to USA.
"The issues covered in this historic trade deal are deep and broad. For example, sensitive agricultural markets will be opened in Japan, Canada and New Zealand. Financial services reform means foreign investors will have more opportunities to invest in fast-growing banks and consumer finance companies. Stronger intellectual property protection also means higher profits for pharmaceutical companies and the movie and music industries."
"The better play is probably processed foods and chicken and pork rather than beef since they are both more popular and less expensive. There is another reason why I consider this area the sweet spot of the trade deal. Many studies show, as disposable incomes rise, the first thing families spend more on is protein, with chicken and pork at the bulls eye."
- How will US Processed foods, chickens, and pork do after TPP?? How unfortunate that US currently has Chicken farms infected with bird flu.
- Corporate Lawyers will come up against US Laws & Regulations to sue for damages, but US Workers wont be able to address slave wages in other countries or get foreign governments to enforce or investigate Worker Rights in those countries, today you may have to give gas or taxi money to police in third world countries to get them to the scene of a crime... it ain't gettin' better through "Hopium"
time for the atlanta fed to start triple seasonally adjusting their data......who wants the truth these days anyways? all your kids are winners, and that is why we dont keep score anymore. an entire society with their heads buried in the sand.
Pretty smelly sand.
how long till
"Due to cost cutting measures ... Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank is terminating GDP Now model"
I would not be surprised in July when they start double/triple seasonally adjusting GDP, they announce the GDPNow model is of no further use since it is fact based.
Just don't spend it all at once.
"...with stocks at LoD"
Legion of Doom...?
This forecasting BS has to change!
Transfer all the fed forecasting over to CNBC. Let Jim Cramer do the numbers for awhile!
Which red button will he push?????
Play with Jim's sound board:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100000942
No doubt since the Dept of Commerce BEA is cowtowing now to CBNS, Lies-man will have to approve of all GDP numbers.
Documentary of the Week: $9 Billion Witness Who Exposed How JP Morgan Chase Helped Wreck the Economy
May 24th, 2015
in econ_news
Econintersect: Alayne Fleischmann is the whistleblower who helped the Justice Department force JPMorgan Chase to pay one of the largest fines in U.S. history for its role in the financial crisis. Matt Taibbi described her experiences in a Rolling Stone feature: "The $9 Billion Witness: Meet the woman JPMorgan Chase paid one of the largest fines in American history to keep from talking." This video is an interview by Democracy Now! with both Alayne Fleischman and Matt Taibbi discussing what she observed at JPM and her testimony. Documentary video follows the Read more >> jump.
It only looks small cause it's cold.
If today's S&P target is 'unch' they'd better get moving!
what role did presh metals options expiry play in todays robust economic numbers?
I think we all know that US Government economic data is all self serving bullshit. Lies wrapped in half truths and tainted with manipulation. Why do they even bother to carry on this fiction of releasing economic and employment data that is totally false. Oh, yes, to keep the elites in power and to maintain the people's brain washed perspective. Most Americans probably think we have had a robust recovery, and if THEY can't find a job or earn decent livings. it is wholly because THEY have a flaw that puts them on the edges of the otherwise strong American economy. So people, remember, "Always blame yourselves" "The bankers have done well" "If you can't do well like them, it is because of your weaknesses" "Opportunity is there for all, but only some grab for it".
This stinks to high heaven.
Mission, Objectives of the Organization lead to Functions in each job. Lying and putting out the Fake news and Fake Statistics is part of the Job, Resume' Process, and required self-promotion. Even self-promotion makes the organization look good.
Take President Obama and his quest for Legacy through TPP Passage. It is not right for USA. And he as to spin it, lie about it, omit info, and propagandize while fooling the whole nation. Well it is Treasonous and illegal and Racketeering.
"Investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) is an instrument of public international law, that grants an investor the right to use dispute settlement proceedings against a foreign government. Provisions for ISDS are contained in a number of bilateral investment treaties, in certain international trade treaties, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (Chapter 11) and in international investment agreements, such as the Energy Charter Treaty. If an investor from one country (the "Home State") invests in another country (the "Host State"), both of which have agreed to ISDS, and the Host State violates the rights granted to the investor under public international law, then that investor may bring the matter before an arbitral tribunal."
"While ISDS is often associated with international arbitration under the rules of ICSID (the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes of the World Bank), it in fact often takes place under the auspices of international arbitral tribunals governed by different rules and/or institutions, such as the London Court of International Arbitration, the International Chamber of Commerce, the Hong Kong International Arbitration Centre or the UNCITRAL Arbitration Rules."
So under TPP we will fall under British Raj Rules that they laid out for their Trading Model/Economic Model, which has failed them and left their economy full of Peons and Serfs.
The economy doesn't leave the Great Recession - never really recovering and go into another recession. Next stop: Depression. Nail gun anyone?