JPMorgan Warns Greece "Is Not Investable" As Germany Denies Any Deal Progress

Tyler Durden's picture

Today's entire surge in stocks and EURUSD was predicated on nothing more than momentum ignited from rumors of a report that a deal was imminent. So now that Germany has come out and stated - unequivocally - that:

  • *GERMAN GOVT SURPRISED BY GREEK REPORTS OF PROGRESS: OFFICIAL

One might imagine some of the ramp would be removed.. and it is in EURUSD, but not in stocks. However, as JPMorgan warns "hope is not an investment case. The longer we go without a deal, the less likely we believe a deal becomes/the higher the chance of Grexit."

Rumors...denied...

  • *LITTLE PROGRESS SEEN IN GREECE TALKS, GERMAN GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS
  • *GERMAN GOVT SURPRISED BY GREEK REPORTS OF PROGRESS: OFFICIAL
  • *GERMAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL COMMENTS IN DRESDEN, GERMANY

Talks between Greece and creditors haven’t made much progress on substance, a German government official says on sidelines of Group of Seven meeting in Dresden, Germany.

  • German govt is surprised at comments by Greek officials today that accord is near: official
  • German official asks not to be identified because talks are private

But as JPMorgan warns,

“Greece is dominating the headlines again and we retain our neutral weight within CEEMEA. We would spend our risk budget anywhere but the most volatile market in the region.

 

Valuations are low (Hellenic Telecommunications Organization (OTE) is at a bigger discount to European telcos than the ’12 Grexit scare), while our economists’ base case remains that a deal is struck to keep Greece in the Euro zone.

 

We hope that this proves to be the case, but hope is not an investment case. The longer we go without a deal, the less likely we believe a deal becomes/the higher the chance of Grexit.

 

What’s changed in the last 8 weeks? Not much: bank liquidity, state finances, consumer confidence and business confidence are all declining and non-performing loans are rising while negotiations go on.

*  *  *

And the farce continues...

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Headbanger's picture

Muppet slaughter begins in 3... 2.... 1....

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Are you suggesting phony rumors were created to ramp the stock markets?? Egads!!

Looney's picture

This just in: Schauble’s wheelchair was stolen during the Greek Debt negotiations.

And in the other news: Alexis Tsipras has been seen riding in a wheelchair in Athens. ;-)

Looney

Wolferl's picture

Throw those pathetic Greeks out of Europe already.

knukles's picture

Really not too hard to understand why the Krauts like sado-masochistic fetishes

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Michael Lewis wrote a great essay illustrating how Germans are clean on the outside, and dirty on the inside. Really helps you understand Germans and German culture.

Bumpo's picture

Im sure the ECB and Brussels has all this appropriatley hedged. Let the Debt unravel!

PhilB's picture

I see now...Greece is not investible because, well, JP Morgan doesnt already know or can control the outcomes. I guess JP Morgan only likes playing in fixed markets. Makes sense.

Captain Debtcrash's picture
Captain Debtcrash (not verified) PhilB May 27, 2015 12:22 PM

The sovereign debt taken on by Greece was never repayable. The creditors and debtors were both fools but ultimately only one will hold the bag. The creditors have attempted to stick the bag with the debtor, as they always do, but this is moot. Greece simply cannot pay back its debt, like many other nations, and that being the case the creditor will always be the loser. You simply cannot get blood from a stone.

Arius.'s picture
Arius. (not verified) Bumpo May 27, 2015 12:04 PM

Can someone please educate me ... who is JP Morgan warning and most importantly WHY?

 

are they warning the sheep not to go too deep into but again why would they do that?  cant imagine these guys are out there to warn innocent folks ...

i really cant figure this one out ... 

edotabin's picture

All I know is, we are very lucky to live in the age of the internet.  Imagine the poor souls trying to make heads or tails of all this 30 years ago by reading a newspaper and thinking it was a credible source of info. At first, we were ecstatic at the flow of information. Then we slowly started to realize the information was mostly all shit anyway.  The constant, incessant repetition leaves us with 90% noise and 10% useful, actionable info. 

 

Oh regional Indian's picture

No you banker asshole, it is your odious and usurious and usually ruinous terms that make your loans un-re-payable.

A bankers game is debt-trapping, that is it.

And Greece (and many before and hopefully not too many to come) is a shining example.

 

shovelhead's picture

"Pay me, you filthy little Greek." WHAP!

"Nein, Mistriss. I am a bad boy....HARDER!" WHAP!

PartysOver's picture

I look forward to seeing how the CDS's are handled if Greece defaults.  If the Banksters start to turn on each other then game over else stocks to inifinity

i_call_you_my_base's picture

It's already been established that missed payments to the IMF and ECB do not constitute a default. CDSs will never be triggered. Never.

Headbanger's picture

Yeah maybe they won't

But have you ever heard of the countries called Spain, Portugal and Italy?

Nice places to visit but I hear they're looking at lot moar like Greece now.

Not that it means much.. If you're a Muppet.

knukles's picture

Fuck yeah.  New York City in the 70's wasn't a default.  It was a moratorium.
Sophistry.

                         Please Stand By; We're Experiencing Some Issues

ghostzapper's picture

Email all feedback to the following:

 

nailgun@jpmorganfedpomodesk.com 

i_call_you_my_base's picture

Probably just the greeks trying to stop withdrawls.

walküre's picture

Tsirpas: Greece will pay pensions and wages tomorrow

When the government makes such a statement, then it's pretty obvious the country's finances are a complete basket case.

Tomorrow might be the last pension or paycheque EVER the Greeks receive in Euros.

unplugged's picture

here we go yet again - greek default act 137 scene 64 - roll it....

Antifaschistische's picture

We all know this script is already written...and this tape will get played....again.

 

"A deal has been reached between Greece and it's creditors.  Some details are still pending but all parties are optimistic the remaining issues will be resolved before......"

falak pema's picture

Hot n cold all the way down to the line of no return.

The river of no return saw the good guy win the prize over the bad guy. Some prize : Marilyn ! 

We don't know who the good guy is here: looks like the number of bad guys have the absolute majority ! 

But the prize is not the same : its Mutti ! 

VWAndy's picture

The never ending chain yank. They are consistant.

Antifaschistische's picture

Oh...and by the way, since the whole Euro experiment was to create a US like economic giant with multiple states....congratulations Germany on being like the US.   Greece is currently your most visible welfare state.(others to follow)   In America, we don't draw borders around our welfare "states" since they are imbedded everywhere.   Okay, well except for the "reservations" and Washington D.C.

Bemused Observer's picture

Damn straight!
This was the doom for the whole Euro experiment. This system works for the US because our states are NOT all independent nations with their own histories. The states in the US have, more or less, a SHARED history. This is an important distinction, ask people from Mississippi, Alabama, California, etc, what they are, and they'll tell you they are Americans.
But in Europe, they will tell you they are Germans, French, Italians, etc. The point at which they identify with each other is different, with Europeans seeing themselves in terms of regional, national identities as opposed to seeing themselves as parts of the greater whole of Europe.
And here in the US, people from New York do NOT agitate against providing aid to OUR "poor nations" like Mississippi, Alabama, etc. We do NOT insist on imposing austerity on those citizens as a condition of receiving that aid. There is no sense of having to "teach them a lesson"...New Yorkers may make cruel jokes about the backwardness of some of their neighbors, but they don't attempt to punish them for it. They may roll their eyes and bitch about the guns and Bible-toting and fixation on certain issues, but in the end they send the money. Because they may be annoying backwards hicks, but they're OUR annoying backwards hicks...they are fellow Americans, warts and all.
The Europeans don't think this way, because of their own unique histories.

Meremortal's picture

It's obvious to all observers that Greece will never pay back its debts.

The question is, "How long longer will the rest of the EU carry Greece?"

Answer: "Until the pain of carrying overwhelms the desire to save face."

I put this in the category of "not predicatable".

 

What I do is much more important to my finanacial well being than what Greece and/or the EU does, which I can't control or predict.

 

Not Goldman Sachs's picture

Uh, give NYK'ers a chance to withhold their tax dollars from the backwards takers and they would. We are not quite as united às you state. State borders are somewhat arbitrary, but when cash differentiates us we can get testy..

Wolferl's picture

Throw those pathetic Greeks out of Europe already.

CHC's picture
CHC (not verified) May 27, 2015 11:48 AM

The entire Greek/EU drama is now playing on a continuous loop. 

basho's picture

not investable?

does that mean they'll be investing in GR?

BoPeople's picture
BoPeople (not verified) May 27, 2015 11:52 AM

I am thinking that the entire central/international bank management team needs to be replaced with people who are not inhabited with demons.

This would solve a lot of problems.

buzzsaw99's picture

they wouldn't be saying that if they had any to sell. :snark:

centerline's picture

Wake me up when it gets really ugly between bankers and politicians.

new game's picture

the least impacted will be rural self sufficient folks. take note. turnips for blood, sweat and labor, no fiat pleze. back to fucking work, your food basket awaits you. 

Arius.'s picture
Arius. (not verified) May 27, 2015 12:00 PM

As one of ZH editors hardly sympathetic to Greece once or twice put it: "Germany throws up over Greece latest proposals" .... yeah well c'est la vie ... we will survive this one too and will succumb over Disselbloom and the rest of the crew ... there is God after all

Colonel Klink's picture

1. Start a rumor

2. Deny

3. PROFIT!

Fuck those fucking fucks.  Tune in, cash out of the system, repudiate debt.

Ajax4Hire's picture

"The avalanche has already started, it is too late for the pebbles to vote."

Kosh, Babylon 5.

Shekels's picture

The EU experiment is a failure. Each country needs to be like politically multi-ethnic, neutral Switzerland. Europeans have bled too much in the last century for Lord Rothschield. Marxism,  Ashkenazi National Socialism and Zionism. Cannibalistic Shylock banksters are never satiated on goyim flesh

Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Don't invest till there's blood in the streets. Literal blood. 

Morgan has said in effect to Greece's business community:

"That's it. We're not giving you a red eurocent till your army gets rid of Syriza and gets serious about austerity, or NATO does it for you. Choice is yours.

How fucking hard is it to teach your proles who's boss anyway?"

kchrisc's picture

While I feel bad for the Greek people, I have, am, enjoying watching Zion trying to save their Greek feudal estate and keep it out of the hands of the Russians and Chinese.

Bottom of the ninth for the Zionists. What will they do? Will they go for it, and stage another false-flag, bring in ZATO, and steal home? Or will they make a deal-that-is-not-a-deal deal, and get a run on a walk? Or will they just hit the showers?

This announcer is betting on the ZATO theft of home option.

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

TeethVillage88s's picture

JPM Trys to put out Counter-Intelligence.

Greece doesn't want any more help from JPM or GS.

What do they need Lying Liars for.

Greece stops participating with Wall Street & London.

falak pema's picture

Liberty can be an extreme demand that knows no offer and tryanny is an extreme submission that knows no reward. 

That's why liberty without responsibility is as futile as tyranny without reward. 

Nobody wants to die like Spartacus and nobody wants to wank like Robinson Crusoe all alone; true libertarian without his soulmate; alter ego. 

Reality is some grey area between narcissistic liberty and submissive tyranny. 

Most of us live there. Most of us dream of avoiding extremes imposed by men who can't face reality.

youngman's picture

The Greek politicians are talking to the wrong people...they should be talking to the Red Cross and Bono for the next big Save the Greece People from starving  concert..they are now going to pay for their greed of the last few years....your pension is gone baby....

walküre's picture

Ok, going out on another limb here. GREXIT is coming but is priced in and contained. Greek's debt will be rolled over into Drachmas and paid through hyperinflation. That's not a default, it's just a loss of value. CDS won't be triggered. IMF can roll back into Athens and "assist" with the transition. There's money to be made somehow, somewhere.

EU will survive. EUR will survive and the Greeks are getting the shit sandwich.

But then again... I was wrong 2x before calling for the same. Maybe 3rd time is truly the charme.

Ted Baker's picture

There is a deal but no one dares to say it