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Initial Jobless Claims Rise, Miss Expectations - Gone Nowhere Since The End Of QE3

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the biggest miss to expectations in 6 weeks, initial jobless claims rose to 282k (against 270k exp). For context this means jobless claims have gone nowhere since the end of QE3.

 

It appears it is time to double-seasonally-adjust this data to confirm the everything is awesome meme.

The smoothed average ticked up very modestly but hovers near 15-year lows.

 

Continuing Claims rose 11k to 2.222 million, missing expectations for the first time in 6 weeks.

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Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 05/28/2015 - 08:38 | 6139425 This is it
This is it's picture

...but it's bullish

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 08:53 | 6139438 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

...but it's bullish

 

No

 

...but it's bullshit

 

fixed it for you

 

You missed the IT at the end

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 08:54 | 6139462 philipat
philipat's picture

Why can't we just use WOW, QOQ and MAT data? No need for seasonal adjustments or double/triple seasonal adjustments..

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:54 | 6139685 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Time for the gubmint to change the unemployment calculation again.  Maybe, say, 90% of people out of work are really on vacations.  Only count 10% of them as unemployed?

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:06 | 6139489 twh99
twh99's picture

... But it's bullshitish.

Fixed it.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:35 | 6139588 inhibi
inhibi's picture

You know the job market is bad when every engineering job posted online has 100+ applicants...

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 11:36 | 6140098 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Yet the government that you pay for is increasing the number of foreign engineers allowed to come to the U.S. to work.  Engineering - "Jobs U.S. citizens won't do," it's just beneath them, according to the government.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:53 | 6139684 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Nah, bullishit.

DavidC

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 10:20 | 6139801 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

"Gone nowhere since the end of QE3"

Wouldn't it be more fair to compare jobless claims from the beginning of QE3 to today? Or at least the economy is 'strong' enough to maintain it's present employment level?

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 08:42 | 6139437 Gypsy Ramono
Gypsy Ramono's picture

...but CNBC said "The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but remained at levels consistent with a strengthening labor market."

Someone is not telling the truth? 

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 08:47 | 6139449 RealityCheque
RealityCheque's picture

i know what those words are, but they don't go together.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 08:43 | 6139439 Space Animatoltipap
Space Animatoltipap's picture

What's the value of this most incomplete info? Indeed, zero.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 08:44 | 6139441 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

fuck these numbers, every high school drop out gets a new lexus and for white boys a new GMC truck.

no doc no income auto loans for alllllll..yeeeeeeeeee

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 08:46 | 6139447 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Its bullish, because no rate hike.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 08:51 | 6139458 CHC
CHC's picture

These #s aren't the official really official #s.  Wait for the BLS - they have the really really accurate #s.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 08:52 | 6139460 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

If the eCONomy is so good then why do we have 45 million people participating in the SNAP program?

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:00 | 6139474 NoVa
NoVa's picture

because it is free bread and circus

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:07 | 6139496 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

The Force is strong with the FSA.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:02 | 6139481 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

Yes, but the BLS hasn't released the revised reverse double seasonal adjustments yet, just wait...

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:03 | 6139484 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Good enough to levitate futures? All that matters.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:07 | 6139495 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

All those Challenger layoffs + collapsing energy sector employment means that these are good numbers. This is probably the lowest % of continuing claims to total full-time workers in half a century.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:12 | 6139508 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Can you imagine the outrage and SEC investigations if the HFT/spoofers were pushing this market lower every day?  This shit will not stop because everyone wins.  Congresscritters and Wall Street.  Oblahblah can opine about how great his policies are by looking at the level of the stock market and the Gruberites will believe him.

complete collapse is our only correction.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 10:13 | 6139772 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

We don't have to imagine anything. Look what they did to Navinder Singh Sarao, the guy in Britain who supposedly caused the flash crash.

I commented at the time: "It's only a crime if the manipulations cause the market to go DOWN."

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:19 | 6139530 VW Nerd
VW Nerd's picture

Since the market crisis there has been a steady stream of negative economic and political news that ordinarily would be discounted in the markets.  Unfortunately, out of necessity, the Fed has been forced to be actively and agressively involved in support of the stock and bond markets. The markets have not been allowed to discount ANY of these negative headlines. If the markets go, so too will many college endowments, pension finds and trust funds.  Too many of them are leveraged to the hilt to try to fix their actuarial models after 2008. The whole financial edifice is estremely vulnerable....and the Fed know it.  Hence, the spin and activism will continue.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 10:42 | 6139630 teutonicate
teutonicate's picture

More evidence, in my view, that we are beginning to witness a schism that is developing between the leaders of the cabal (that increasingly cannot identify a scenario that keeps them in power) and their minions (the politicians, media moguls and CB puppets).

In essence the puppets are waiting for consistent orders that they are not getting - and their protocols require that they continue to act in accordance with past orders until they get new ones.

Hence we have a sort of zombie political and financial infrastructure that continues on its present course until different, and arguably riskier (at least for the cabal), orders come from the highest level of the cabal - or alternatively (and less conspiratorial) from a cabalist consensus that has not yet emerged.

Inaction and contradiction at this point is positive, because it confirms that there is disarray within the cabalist machine.

Evidence includes:

1) The continued unabashed and failed attempts to legislate behavioral changes (i.e. gun control, illegal immigrant amnesty, internet censorship, hate speech), that the cabal has historically been more able to accomplish through the (arguably misguided) world-wide court of public opinion.

2) Unbridled claims by those that control Hollywood and the MSM that this control should, rather than being a source of concern about the perception of abuse by the public, arrogantly remain a source of pride.

3) European cabalists who proudly offer to lead Europe into the new multi-cultural world, because absent that leadership, "Europe will die".

4) A leader of Israel, who despite the domestic political risks involved, addresses the US congress, after having been rebuffed by the president (who is also one of their puppets!).  He returns to Israel, only to eke out a government majority by the thinnest of margins, and then only by allying himself with the most extreme factions.

My assessment of these bold actions is that they did not have their intended effect.  They remind me of a game of chess (as opposed to checkers) where one player inadvertently signals his weakness to his opponent by false acts of bravado.

As strange as this may sound, I think the long term prognosis (past the inevitable short term pain) for world-wide peoples of European descent is improving.

The cat is out of the bag too soon.  The cabal now needs time and influence that it no longer has to consolidate its power.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 09:51 | 6139668 mijev
mijev's picture

Pisses me off reading this because its just another bullshit stat. We currently have 50% unemployment. It is heading towards 85% or more and it will never go down again. There are too many people and jobs are disappearing. Technology is designed to assist or replace humans.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 10:02 | 6139727 Conax
Conax's picture

This should be good for another new high today.  For every worker tossed off the job, the tossers become that much more profitable.

I grok newspeak.

 

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 10:23 | 6139815 Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho's picture

Let's get FIFA taken care of, then we can worry about this economy.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 11:05 | 6139974 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

After the TPP is passed, global jobs will climb.

We will only get global numbers.

No more US centric metrics.

That is one way of covering your ass.

Thu, 05/28/2015 - 12:13 | 6140242 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Think of all the poor people that get to stay at home and study the classics, music, art and survivalist tactics. 

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