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Pending Home Sales Jump Most Since September 2012 To Highest Since 2006, Driven By The Northeast
Following the March pending home sales report which saw growth moderate after February's 3.6% surge to 1.1%, the flurry of contract signings, not actual purchases, in April rebounded by 3.4% - the biggest jump since September 2012 - far above the 0.9% consensus estimate and 14% higher than a year ago, pushing the pending home sales index to 112.4, the highest level since 2006. The driver: pending sales in the Northeast, which soared 10.1% from the month before, and 9.4% from a year ago.
Quote NAR's chief economist Larry Yun:
"Realtors are saying foot traffic remains elevated this spring despite limited — and in some cases severe — inventory shortages in many metro areas," he said. "Homeowners looking to sell this spring appear to be in the driver's seat, as there are more buyers competing for a limited number of homes available for sale."
Adds Yun, "As a result, home prices are up and accelerating in many markets."
He is hopeful the jump in contract signings means a comparable increase in actual existing home sales:
Following April's decline in existing-home sales, Yun expects a rebound heading into the summer, but the likelihood of meaningful gains will depend on a much-needed boost in inventory and evidence of moderating price growth now that interest rates have started to rise.
"The housing market can handle interest rates well above 4 percent as long as inventory improves to slow price growth and underwriting standards ease to normal levels so that qualified buyers — especially first-time buyers — are able to obtain a mortgage."
In other words, those buying continue to be mostly all-cash foreigners, money launderers, or home flippers who are competing with each other for a very limit amount of housing inventory, like Hanergy, like CYNK. As for interest rates "well above 4%", the housing market may be able to handle them, but nothing else will.
The regional breakdown:
- The Northeast bounced back solidly (10.1 percent) to 88.3 in April, and is now 9.4 percent above a year ago.
- The Midwest the index increased 5.0 percent to 113.0 in April, and is 13.3 percent above April 2014.
- The South rose 2.3 percent to an index of 129.4 in April and are 14.8 percent above last April.
- The West inched 0.1 percent in April to 103.8, and is 16.4 percent above a year ago.
As a reminder, the surge in Northeast pending home sales is in stark contrast with the collapse in new home sales in the Northeast which plunged 19% from a year ago.
Which begs the question: just why are homebuilders so leery of building new homes in the Northeast where, at least according to the NAR, housing demands is off the charts? A few more months of this discrepancy and it will be time for one of those "someone is lying here" posts.
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The Yun and the Fictitious
Wait a minute! The North East had weather every day!
Oh lucky us! Still another bubble!
Cheap debt simply pulls it forward along with the threat of raising rates. Ultamately affordability doesn't change.
Distorted to the point of uselessness.
Even when you show people the real numbers on affordability, they still don't believe you.
Bottom half of this list is clearly bubble territory again. Top half are shitholes nobody wants to live in anyway (Detroit, Cleveland, St Louis, etc...).
http://q13fox.com/2015/05/27/what-you-need-to-earn-to-afford-a-home-in-t...
St Louis --three years max until it looks like Detroit.
NAR... "Never Accurate Reporting"
Have they ever NOT revised their estimates downward within 3 months of reporting such data?
And who exactly buys? The discomforted US consumer? Poroshenko's ex-boyfriend? Former Baltimore rioters starting a new life? The clinton fund?
.gov money bitchez.
This boom in the NE is primarily due to baby boomers packing up and moving south for retirement. That is a retirement on fat pensions better spent in the south where the money will go farther then at home. Loot, pillage, run away!
This is what happens when people in their 50s start getting kicked out of their parents' basement
YIPPY!!! were al house rich again!...
No job, no money....but there's a new F-350 and a bass boat parked in the driveway of the new 5 bedroom 3 bath McMansion! We be rich, bitchez!
yoy is easy sleazy when you constantly fuck with the previous year's numbers.
wtf? did i just hear yun advocate higher interest rates? he sure the hell isn't campaigning for lower rates. he is a hell of a man, an expert in matters he doesn't understand at all. he figures non deadbeats can afford higher rates but bemoans the fact that deadbeats can't get a loan. all he wants is loose lending standards and a loose moral fiber. lulz
cant loose moral fiber be helped by eating bananas or rice?
Home sell update(one of those pending is mine wahoo). Cleared all inspections and close on the 3rd. We found a home to rent about 1.5miles from work(instead of the 28 miles for the old home). Now we just have to get all of our junk to the rental, going to be a "fun" week. Be debt free on the 3rd!!!!!! Fuck Chase and Jamie(Holder of my note).
+1 (you anti-American piece of garbage. And I quote: "....certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty the pursuit of Happiness, and paying shylock usury fees.")
Buying, selling and then having to move is the single biggest self inflicted pain in the ass on the planet (that and getting married).
It is easy to be in the green when you are starting out from zero. Here in the Northeast, it is real estate armageddon - everything is for sale. Go on zillow and check out the properties for sale in Upstate NY. It is un fucking believable. There are counties and towns that have so many properties for sale that it comes out to a large percentage of the existing properties in the towns are available. Berkshire Hathaway just started to list some of their forclosures that they purchased in bulk from the last few years. Berkshire Hathaway for sale signs are popping up everywhere. No one knew how much shit was foreclosed on in their own towns.
Last week my buddie just bought 110 acres for $800+ per acre. Flatland with two streams. He paid cash and told them if they did not take it, he had twenty more spots he was looking at. They took the offer, because no one is buying jack shit.
Maverick
ah yes. 800 per acre. what a bargain.
That is, until the NY taxes are accounted for. I've met a number of former NYers who left b/c of the ridiculous taxes. I hope your buddy has $30 grand available per year to pay that property tax.
Taxes depend on the county. In the upstate Adirondacks, he will only be paying a couple of grand / year until he puts his house and outbuilding up. He should max out at 5-8 grand / year all in for taxes. Downstate near Pough town and south to NYC, he would be paying the thirty large you are talking about.
Maverick
Even $8k is a big nut to cover if you want to just build a self-sustaining farm and be left the fuck alone.
15 acres in Costa Rica with two houses, barn, and garage... under $1k/year in taxes. Plus about another $1k for services (trash pickup, road maintenance, etc) that would normally be covered by property taxes.
Great and one bit from anything there and you get to experience paralysis, dengue, malaria, neurotoxins...but I hear the surfing is ok.
SamuelMaverick: Last week my buddie just bought 110 acres for $800+ per acre. Flatland with two streams.
oh no you don't muthafukka...
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/27/obama-admin-asserts-domi...
"Obama admin asserts dominion over creeks, streams, wetlands, ditches — even big puddles"
I have two large creeks bordering my property of which my property line extends to the center of each, but I dare not step into one as my liberty and responsibility only extend to their maintenance. I am taxed for their ownership but have no real rights to them. The Corp of Engineers rules over them as well as numerous other competing agencies as well as the city in which I reside.
'Pending sales' ....yea sure. That's like people thinking about buying a stock. Also you've got to be a complete idiot to be signing a mortgage today anyway.
PEOPLE ARE BUYING HOMES AS FAST AS THEY CAN IN LAS VEGAS
http://viewlasvegasrealestate.com/search.html
b/c herding feels so good (and the water smells so clean!....like a city pool!)
What people? Vegas houses are garbage white trash houses. And if your going to put spam on the hedge please put a hat on and cover that DOME.
housing...sales, pending and otherwise are lagging indicators....just look at how much it slowed prior to the 'actual' recession. however, here in FLA back then, the writing was on the wall late 06/early 07 as 'season' did not occur that year. as a result, feb 07 saw collapse and small downtick in stockmkt, of subprime lending begin--as no greater fool showed up to pay 300k for a newbuild in crap neighborhoods. currently the bubble is in 750k+ homes (locally this is where cash buyers really start at.....all the low end is cash too, investors that is). 250 to 600 are people getting mortgages and moving up etc. at the $1M mark there is ample supply up through $5M and more supply coming. how do they buy these homes all cash? SECURITIES BASED LENDING, as in LOANS against stock market gains.
$ stronger= worse sales and eps numbers= higher p/e= new buyers dwindle leaving only corporations buying back to support the indices....then just a puff and over the hill we go. suddenly no one buys 2.5M home, along with 'loan calls' and 'margin calls', then the next 20%.....then the Fed says they will do something just like they started talking summer 2008--didnt do a thing....but I digress
housing only shows how ez the wealthy are getting credit and optimistic they are since 10% margins are sustainable (fidelity), and TINA b/c tsy yeilds so low (all of wall st).
hey, lets make it a great summer and nail those 20% turns in gold, oil, biotech, small cap, and long tsy's!
No offense - but "pending" doesn't mean squat.
Our inventory is so low here that homes are "pending" far above asking price. That doesn't mean the bank will approve the loan. I've been told many of these are being rejected because the banks don't feel the home is worth what someone is trying to buy it for.
Had offer $6K over ask within 24 hours on my home in Denver yesterday. Countered at $4K higher. I did it with a real estate company that charges $2600 flat fee and is paying the buyer's realtor a flat $3K commission. Insane.
You can sell about anything with adequate credit. All you need is a trend to get it started, like a grass fire. It doesn't hurt that we have Chinese with pockets of cash making offers as well.
I think this is bullish and should have an incredible climax.
Speechless.... In eastern PA, I see lots of sticks and quite a few homes with knee deep weeds and grass. If there is any validity to the numbers, the only thing I can assume is its people getting in as the rates are going up.... Probably 1 in 4 commercial sites outside of the big strip malls are empty. In those its probably 1 in 6 stores are empty...... Doesnt make any sense.
I can tell you in NYC suburbs EVERYTHING IS FLIPPING at about 40% above the bubble prices... Getting ready to sell my place...as there is no way this is maintainable! All that crooked wall street/silicon valley IPO money is sloshing around here!
Pending Home Foreclosure Sales?
You're not very descriptive in your article, so why write it?
The deeper the shade of pig lipstick, the more desperate you look.
Northeast flippers. Once anything gets to the Northeast the end game is near. For those that remember the 80's a lot sucker flippers got stuck with a lot of real estate they could not sell. This article is just more propaganda.
I feel like I've watch the years of 1995 - 2006 happen all in the past six months.
Bad idea. This is the second year of the solar shutdown.
My wife told me again last night, "You've been saying it for so long, it's bound to come true eventually." Where have I heard that before?
The sheep are lost. It would take at least a decade of SERIOUS study to get them up to speed.
This chart on Stockman's website tells it all: We've all expectedd the crash since about 2011 but the insanity just continues, unlike before.
Don't forget that Ben S Bernanke started Operation Twist in September 2011 and then QE3 in September 2012. Those Fed boondoogles are just going to turn out to be a kicking of the can down the road plus amplifying the fallout when the market distortions correct and underlying fundamentals take over. He reinflated the housing bubble and created others in this misguided plan.
Chart won't post (Retail money market ratio)
The graphs and percentages look good.
So does a hot model with bad teeth.
The new housing bubble is so much more dangerous than the first one...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/inflation-vs-deflation-part-3how-the-...