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Friday Humor And Epic Trolling: Joe LaVorgna Says Q1 GDP Actually Rose 1.2% (If Seasonally Adjusted Some More)
Just when you thought Wall Street's best paid, yet worst weatherman couldn't come up with any more gut-busting, roaring humor, he unleashes what is surely today's biggest financial trollery.
Similar to last year, Q1 real GDP growth has been revised into negative territory. The preliminary reading on inflation-adjusted output now shows a -0.7% decline compared to an initially-reported gain of +0.2%. While harsh winter weather, disruptions related to the West Coast port labor dispute, dollar strength and a plunge in energy-related capital spending certainly weighed heavily on Q1 output this year, weakness in first-quarter GDP growth has increasingly become the norm. Recent research by the San Francisco Fed shows that the trend of weak Q1 output growth over the past several years can be largely explained by residual seasonality in the seasonally-adjusted GDP data. Our calculations along the same lines suggest that applying an additional seasonal adjustment to the BEA’s data results in Q1 real GDP growth of 1.2%. We find that the effect of residual seasonality on GDP estimates has been increasing sharply for over a decade. Of the four major components of GDP, all but one are meaningfully impacted by residual seasonality. For these reasons, the drop-off in estimated Q1 GDP growth has not altered our view that the underlying fundamentals of the economy remain on firm footing.
This, of course, coming from the guy who two months ago originally "predicted" today's single-seasonally adjusted -0.7% GDP was actually 3.1%
Following weaker than expected retail sales, inventories and housing starts, we marked down our estimate of Q1 #GDP from 3.1% to 2.4%
— Joseph A. LaVorgna (@Lavorgnanomics) March 17, 2015
Normally, we would respond to this idiocy, in which apparently a $100 billion build up in inventory to offset a 2% collapse in GDP due to a secular plunge in global trade and a surge in the USD due to fears of an imminent rate hike, are seasonal but we are just too busy laughing.
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Such a fucktard. Even his 1.2% missed his estimate by 100%
Lavorgna qualifies as the 'two-minute hate' here at ZH.
Lavorgna vs. Gartman.. epic death match.
As long as one of them dies, we all win.
Aaaaaaararaararraagaggagagghhhhhhh!
Lavorgnanomics sounds like some deformed bastard offspring of economics that likes to terrorize the village folk.
I'll give him $5 if he'll hold 2 bic pens to his eyes and jam his head onto a desk as hard as he can.
just tryin' a help
Waste of 2 bics Knuks
When you look at Joe and see the way he acts you just know the kid was was riduculed and made fun of all through school. How many time do you think he got his snoopy lunch pal taken away from him in high school? Hundreds. Now he will say and do what ever they want just because he thinks he has some people who like him. Joe your still a twirp!
Don't be unfair to Joe LaWronga. It's his job to sell good news so Deutsche's trading desks can fleece some more muppets.
I would sell my soul to Cheney for just the chance to burn the skin off Joe's face with a hair dryer
We know what this is and it's the same game as ever. They are trying to tie bad economic numbers indirectly to global warming. Weather.
Every fucking negative we have is caused, not by their arrogance or stupidity, and definitely not by their desire to bring us to our knees, but because they have not yet been fully released from the holds of the most weakest of conservative initiatives (to stop the fucking bleeding) to pursue every bleeding heart redistributionist agenda, every climate change, save the fucking planet theme, and kill every capitalist profit seeking venture as the root of all of our evil.
If the weak minded sheep continue to follow this media driven propaganda, we are going to find ourselves in such a deep hole we will need frackers to find us.
Wait, my skirt is being lifted by the wind. Now where was I... oh ya, the weather. The freakin' sun made us lose money last quarter. That damned fireball out in space lowered our capital budgets, increased inventory, and damnit.... killed the retail market. Of course, once you add wind - holy shit! Forget driving anymore, it's just too damn windy. Selling gas? Forget it. It's just tooooooo windy. FFS, why do we have air? C'mon slope those windshields a little more you bastards, then maybe we can all buy more clunkers.
Ah what the hell. Rain then snow. For pete's sake, the sun, wind, rain, snow, water, rock, sand, trees.... shitty fricken nature. Stop messing with me Lavorgnomics.
Are we good to go? Add some eclipses in there too, then she'll sell on Whore Street.
Peace m8!
The only people getting the attention are asshat graduates' from bad acting school.
I can't see anything. His forehead is blinding me.
That's not a forehead...thats a full-on Five-head....
Don't look directly at the forehead!
Is that a Beavis? No!! It's a Butthead!!!!!!!!!!!
That isn't a forehead - that's a foreskin -
I bet it looked even worse before the circumcision.
That's not a forehead, it's so big we call it a FIVE head!
It's a pasty white jew sporting a afro haircut.
please jump from the nearest building. humanity will rejoice
"Didn't I ever tell you about Bumbles? Bumbles bounce."
Yukon Cornelius
Well said. How about ZH being the Island of misfit websites?
Whoever has the seasonally adjustedest GDP is the winner.
Don't waste your time on this fucking pussy.
This guy does not give up. Who the fuck follows this idiot??
The Disparaging Humor Column on ZH.
Gotta love the term "Residual Seasonality". I like the new term for viscous liquidity better though, visquidity.
Just say it's +10%, who gives a fuck.
"While harsh winter weather, disruptions related to the West Coast port labor dispute, dollar strength and a plunge in energy-related capital spending certainly weighed heavily on Q1"
Yes, because weather and labor have nothing to do with the economy.
In other news, we harvested 30 tonnes of potatoes from Siberia in May. This soundly eclipsed generous estimates from the Central Obamabureau, who welcomed the news with praise. The Bureau anticipates a 5% increase in production in the following quarter.
A 5th street hooker puts on a fake fur and works during winter weather, the biggest economy in the world almost collapses.
my calculation for seasonally adjusted 1Q GDP is 9.4%
my lie is bigger than yours Joe - hahahahaha
Is there a source that has the plain unadjusted GDP numbers?
Are we growing or not comparing last year to this year on an unadjusted basis?
1. If you can't trust the numbers you get from the government then why do you think you can trust other numbers you get from the government?
2. Is GDP really the metric you want to use? Does not GDP include certain consumption as production and so on?
translation: my forecast was wrong but if you add this to it, im actually right.
La Bologna needs to residually season himself and throw his worthless carcass in that Japanese volcano that erupted yesterday.
That should be hot enough to kill all the parasites he's carrying around.
He is a enabler, carrying parasites is his job skill.
"Residual seasonality" - my new mantra, good for a multiple adjustments. Can't wait to tell the boss.
Fuck you, Joe! I'll pray to the big grey bearded entity in the sky that you die some sort of horrific, painful death.
-signed everyone who is getting fucked by tribal liars, et. al.
"Our calculations along the same lines suggest that applying an additional seasonal adjustment to the BEA’s data results in Q1 real GDP growth of 1.2%."
If my Aunt had balls, she'd be my Uncle.
I think Lee Adler blew it on the GDP thing to.
He did some long piece about taking out old date from the 2008 Financial Crash and Recession... ended up in positive + territory above the +.2%
Where is Peter Schiff to put these recovery cheerleaders in their place??
Joey Balogna went double+ full retard....definitely no coming back for him.
He's Right if you just ignore reality everything is great! Used to be we put people like that in Straight Jackets and rooms with padded walls now it seems we give them air time on CNBC.
FUCK YOU LAVORGNA!! BASTARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'll bet you tha Ace reporters at CNBS will be all over this story.
Well, I for one ain't gonna volunteer to be one who gets to check. No siree. They're on their own.
Like the floor of a peepshow.
That forhead of his would smash real nice on a NYC guardrail.
This fucktard failed to mention the hedge on electric carbon automobiles. Obama is still 495,000 to meet his goal. Shhhh. Don't tell anyone.
We can always have a multiple battery fire to write off liquidity. Buffett will provide insurance thru Gieco.
Even with a full head of hair back then, I started shaving my head way back in 1994 to ensure I never had the big forehead helmet-hair like that! Guy looks like he should be working the front desk at a Marriot circa 1984.
What an asshole!
He is a joke. No one takes this guy seriously
He looks like a young George Soros, doesn't he?
Lavorgna just another skunk liar. Was he the guy who claimed goldilocks during the 2008 crash? Amazing h'is still around wit the same BS.
Like bob Yuker used to say "You turn this place around and I'd be in the front row"
Now, it's time for the most important question of the day, does brother Joey L. own a nail gun ? I would hate for him to "get suicided" and all on account of his lousy ass financial forecasts.
He should change careers and become a weather man on the Weather Channel, his piss poor forecasts would fit in perfectly. Joey might even get ass hammered by "Big Jim C." In the bathroom for lunch !
Unless he's pulling this crap to roll the cabal instead of the muppets then he is safe enough to sleep on a bed of nailguns. You don't get offed for lying. You hit the ground for stealing, from them, not us.
Macrocephaly is no laughing matter you guys.
Thats what I tell my wife...there would be more money in our checking account if I seasonally adjusted out the Porn, Booze, Dairy Queen Blizzards, Silver purchases, her fucking hair and nail money...
Well, Joe spent a lot of time outdoors in the first quarter, and reflected too much sunlight back into space with this giant forehead. Right there is the reason Q1 was so wintery.
Who in the fuck pays this asshole's salary????
Tyler's montage of this asshat's bullshit predictions and excuses is going to be epic one day...
The twitter feed with weather references is already a blast