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Friday Humor And Epic Trolling: Joe LaVorgna Says Q1 GDP Actually Rose 1.2% (If Seasonally Adjusted Some More)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just when you thought Wall Street's best paid, yet worst weatherman couldn't come up with any more gut-busting, roaring humor, he unleashes what is surely today's biggest financial trollery.

Similar to last year, Q1 real GDP growth has been revised into negative territory. The preliminary reading on inflation-adjusted output now shows a -0.7% decline compared to an initially-reported gain of +0.2%. While harsh winter weather, disruptions related to the West Coast port labor dispute, dollar strength and a plunge in energy-related capital spending certainly weighed heavily on Q1 output this year, weakness in first-quarter GDP growth has increasingly become the norm. Recent research by the San Francisco Fed shows that the trend of weak Q1 output growth over the past several years can be largely explained by residual seasonality in the seasonally-adjusted GDP data. Our calculations along the same lines suggest that applying an additional seasonal adjustment to the BEA’s data results in Q1 real GDP growth of 1.2%. We find that the effect of residual seasonality on GDP estimates has been increasing sharply for over a decade. Of the four major components of GDP, all but one are meaningfully impacted by residual seasonality. For these reasons, the drop-off in estimated Q1 GDP growth has not altered our view that the underlying fundamentals of the economy remain on firm footing.

 

This, of course, coming from the guy who two months ago originally "predicted" today's single-seasonally adjusted -0.7% GDP was actually 3.1%

Normally, we would respond to this idiocy, in which apparently a $100 billion build up in inventory to offset a 2% collapse in GDP due to a secular plunge in global trade and a surge in the USD due to fears of an imminent rate hike, are seasonal but we are just too busy laughing.

 

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Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:43 | 6144569 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

Such a fucktard. Even his 1.2% missed his estimate by 100%

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:45 | 6144585 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Lavorgna qualifies as the 'two-minute hate' here at ZH.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:47 | 6144593 Waylon Bits
Waylon Bits's picture

Lavorgna vs. Gartman.. epic death match.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:50 | 6144608 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

As long as one of them dies, we all win.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:50 | 6144612 knukles
knukles's picture

Aaaaaaararaararraagaggagagghhhhhhh!

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:55 | 6144631 lordylord
lordylord's picture

Lavorgnanomics sounds like some deformed bastard offspring of economics that likes to terrorize the village folk. 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:57 | 6144638 knukles
knukles's picture

I'll give him $5 if he'll hold 2 bic pens to his eyes and jam his head onto a desk as hard as he can.
                                                just tryin' a help

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:17 | 6144708 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

Waste of 2 bics Knuks

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 16:05 | 6144891 remain calm
remain calm's picture

When you look at Joe and see the way he acts you just know the kid was was riduculed and made fun of all through school. How many time do you think he got his snoopy lunch pal taken away from him in high school? Hundreds. Now he will say and do what ever they want just because he thinks he has some people who like him. Joe your still a twirp!

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 16:07 | 6144898 Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

Don't be unfair to Joe LaWronga. It's his job to sell good news so Deutsche's trading desks can fleece some more muppets.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 16:30 | 6144977 Money Boo Boo
Money Boo Boo's picture

I would sell my soul to Cheney for just the chance to burn the skin off Joe's face with a hair dryer

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:00 | 6144650 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

We know what this is and it's the same game as ever. They are trying to tie bad economic numbers indirectly to global warming. Weather.

Every fucking negative we have is caused, not by their arrogance or stupidity, and definitely not by their desire to bring us to our knees, but because they have not yet been fully released from the holds of the most weakest of conservative initiatives (to stop the fucking bleeding) to pursue every bleeding heart redistributionist agenda, every climate change, save the fucking planet theme, and kill every capitalist profit seeking venture as the root of all of our evil.

If the weak minded sheep continue to follow this media driven propaganda, we are going to find ourselves in such a deep hole we will need frackers to find us.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:36 | 6144753 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Wait, my skirt is being lifted by the wind.  Now where was I... oh ya, the weather.  The freakin' sun made us lose money last quarter.  That damned fireball out in space lowered our capital budgets, increased inventory, and damnit.... killed the retail market.  Of course, once you add wind - holy shit!  Forget driving anymore, it's just too damn windy.  Selling gas?  Forget it.  It's just tooooooo windy.  FFS, why do we have air?  C'mon slope those windshields a little more you bastards, then maybe we can all buy more clunkers.

Ah what the hell.  Rain then snow.  For pete's sake, the sun, wind, rain, snow, water, rock, sand, trees.... shitty fricken nature.  Stop messing with me Lavorgnomics.

Are we good to go?  Add some eclipses in there too, then she'll sell on Whore Street.

Peace m8!

 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:56 | 6144639 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

The only people getting the attention are asshat graduates' from bad acting school.

 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:44 | 6144570 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

I can't see anything. His forehead is blinding me.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:45 | 6144577 Budnacho
Budnacho's picture

That's not a forehead...thats a full-on Five-head....

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:46 | 6144587 Waylon Bits
Waylon Bits's picture

Don't look directly at the forehead!

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:57 | 6144645 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Is that a Beavis? No!! It's a Butthead!!!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:56 | 6144636 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

That isn't a forehead - that's a foreskin -

 

I bet it looked even worse before the circumcision.

 

 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:01 | 6144657 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

That's not a forehead, it's so big we call it a FIVE head!

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 18:37 | 6145396 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

It's a pasty white jew sporting a afro haircut. 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:45 | 6144576 madbraz
madbraz's picture

please jump from the nearest building.  humanity will rejoice

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:13 | 6144691 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

 "Didn't I ever tell you about Bumbles? Bumbles bounce."

 

Yukon Cornelius

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:16 | 6144703 NoVa
NoVa's picture

Well said.  How about ZH being the Island of misfit websites?

 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:46 | 6144589 msmith9962
msmith9962's picture

Whoever has the seasonally adjustedest GDP is the winner.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:46 | 6144590 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Don't waste your time on this fucking pussy. 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:46 | 6144592 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

This guy does not give up. Who the fuck follows this idiot?? 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:00 | 6144656 knukles
knukles's picture

The Disparaging Humor Column on ZH.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:34 | 6144760 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Gotta love the term "Residual Seasonality". I like the new term for viscous liquidity better though, visquidity.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:49 | 6144603 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Just say it's +10%, who gives a fuck.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:50 | 6144609 A_latvian
A_latvian's picture

"While harsh winter weather, disruptions related to the West Coast port labor dispute, dollar strength and a plunge in energy-related capital spending certainly weighed heavily on Q1"

Yes, because weather and labor have nothing to do with the economy.

In other news, we harvested 30 tonnes of potatoes from Siberia in May. This soundly eclipsed generous estimates from the Central Obamabureau, who welcomed the news with praise. The Bureau anticipates a 5% increase in production in the following quarter.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:50 | 6144611 Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho's picture

A 5th street hooker puts on a fake fur and works during winter weather, the biggest economy in the world almost collapses.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:52 | 6144619 unplugged
unplugged's picture

my calculation for seasonally adjusted 1Q GDP is  9.4%

my lie is bigger than yours Joe - hahahahaha

 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:52 | 6144624 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

Is there a source that has the plain unadjusted GDP numbers?

 

Are we growing or not comparing last year to this year on an unadjusted basis?

 

 

 

 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 18:59 | 6145434 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

1.  If you can't trust the numbers you get from the government then why do you think you can trust other numbers you get from the government?

2.  Is GDP really the metric you want to use?  Does not GDP include certain consumption as production and so on?

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:55 | 6144632 aliki
aliki's picture

translation: my forecast was wrong but if you add this to it, im actually right.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:55 | 6144633 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 La Bologna needs to residually season himself and throw his worthless carcass in that Japanese volcano that erupted yesterday.

 That should be hot enough to kill all the parasites he's carrying around.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:24 | 6144731 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

He is a enabler, carrying parasites is his job skill. 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:57 | 6144637 MMcfpd
MMcfpd's picture

"Residual seasonality" - my new mantra, good for a multiple adjustments. Can't wait to tell the boss.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 14:59 | 6144652 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Fuck you, Joe!  I'll pray to the big grey bearded entity in the sky that you die some sort of horrific, painful death.

-signed everyone who is getting fucked by tribal liars, et. al.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:01 | 6144660 agstacks
agstacks's picture

"Our calculations along the same lines suggest that applying an additional seasonal adjustment to the BEA’s data results in Q1 real GDP growth of 1.2%."

If my Aunt had balls, she'd be my Uncle.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 16:01 | 6144868 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

I think Lee Adler blew it on the GDP thing to.

He did some long piece about taking out old date from the 2008 Financial Crash and Recession... ended up in positive + territory above the +.2%

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:03 | 6144667 lester1
lester1's picture

Where is Peter Schiff to put these recovery cheerleaders in their place??

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:04 | 6144668 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Joey Balogna went double+ full retard....definitely no coming back for him.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:05 | 6144673 Nue
Nue's picture

He's Right if you just ignore reality everything is great! Used to be we put people like that in Straight Jackets and rooms with padded walls now it seems we give them air time on CNBC.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:06 | 6144675 tommylicious
tommylicious's picture

FUCK YOU LAVORGNA!!  BASTARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:09 | 6144679 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'll bet you tha Ace reporters at CNBS will be all over this story.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:13 | 6144693 knukles
knukles's picture

Well, I for one ain't gonna volunteer to be one who gets to check.  No siree.  They're on their own.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 19:01 | 6145438 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Like the floor of a peepshow.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:12 | 6144685 HandyCrapper
HandyCrapper's picture

That forhead of his would smash real nice on a NYC guardrail.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:17 | 6144709 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

This fucktard failed to mention the hedge on electric carbon automobiles. Obama is still 495,000 to meet his goal. Shhhh. Don't tell anyone. 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:20 | 6144718 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

We can always have a multiple battery fire to write off liquidity. Buffett will provide insurance thru Gieco. 

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:23 | 6144726 Armed Resistance
Armed Resistance's picture

Even with a full head of hair back then, I started shaving my head way back in 1994 to ensure I never had the big forehead helmet-hair like that!  Guy looks like he should be working the front desk at a Marriot circa 1984.

 

What an asshole!

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:50 | 6144821 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

He is a joke.  No one takes this guy seriously

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 15:57 | 6144848 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

He looks like a young George Soros, doesn't he?

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 16:01 | 6144866 who cares
who cares's picture

Lavorgna just another skunk liar. Was he the guy who claimed goldilocks during the 2008 crash? Amazing h'is still around wit the same BS.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 16:07 | 6144900 Curious Crandall
Curious Crandall's picture

Like bob Yuker used to say "You turn this place around and I'd be in the front row"

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 16:08 | 6144908 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Now, it's time for the most important question of the day, does brother Joey L. own a nail gun ? I would hate for him to "get suicided" and all on account of his lousy ass financial forecasts.

He should change careers and become a weather man on the Weather Channel, his piss poor forecasts would fit in perfectly. Joey might even get ass hammered by "Big Jim C." In the bathroom for lunch !

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 19:03 | 6145444 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Unless he's pulling this crap to roll the cabal instead of the muppets then he is safe enough to sleep on a bed of nailguns.  You don't get offed for lying.  You hit the ground for stealing, from them, not us.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 16:14 | 6144934 Black Warrior W...
Black Warrior Waterdog's picture

Macrocephaly is no laughing matter you guys.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 16:19 | 6144945 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Thats what I tell my wife...there would be more money in our checking account if I seasonally adjusted out the Porn, Booze, Dairy Queen Blizzards, Silver purchases, her fucking hair and nail money...

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 16:36 | 6144999 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Well, Joe spent a lot of time outdoors in the first quarter, and reflected too much sunlight back into space with this giant forehead.  Right there is the reason Q1 was so wintery.

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 16:43 | 6145023 BeagleOne
BeagleOne's picture

Who in the fuck pays this asshole's salary????

Fri, 05/29/2015 - 17:05 | 6145077 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

Tyler's montage of this asshat's bullshit predictions and excuses is going to be epic one day...

The twitter feed with weather references is already a blast 

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