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Worst Economic Data Day Of 2015 Ends With Some Folks Selling In May
If ever there was a day (or week) for this clip, today is it... "we got this... yay record highs...oh wait..."
First things first... "sustainable"
This was the worst week for US Macro in 5 weeks and today was the worst day for US Macro since last Thankgiving!
* * *
May ends with Silver best (+3.7%), bonds worst (-2%), with stocks just outperforming gold...
Treasury yields rose on the month with 30Y up 12bps, 2Y up around 4bps - but the last 10 days or so have seen notable strength...
"Sell (Trannies) In May" appears to have worked and the rest of the major indices scarped out small gains... (Trannies down 5 of the last 6 months and over 11% off the November highs)
Energy stocks were the worst in May and healthcare surged thanks to a huge squeezeback higher in Biotechs...
On the week, Trannies were also worst (down 4 of the last 5 weeks) making it the worst 3-week run (-5.4%) since Oct 2014 - notice the S&P managed to very briefly tag green for the week before tumbling back..
The last 6 weekly closes on the S&P (from oldest to most recent) are 2117, 2108, 2116, 2122, 2126, 2115 - less than 1%!
And finally, Trannies were the worst performer today also...and an ugly close
To round out the equity excitement - here are futures from Friday's close showing all the volatility away from US sessions...
Treasury yields and stocks decoupled mid-week - but stocks wanted to catch back down...
But in the week Treasury yields collapsed...led by the long-end...with some month-end, week-end profit taking at the close
With a dramatic 13bps flattening in 2s30s...the biggest weekly flattening since April 2013...
The USDollar fell for the 3rd day in a row but ended the week higher by around 0.7% - Aud was the weakest of the majors and Swissy strongest
Despite the swings in the dollar, gold continued to go absolutely nowhere (as did Silver) but copper tumbled as crude soared...
And finally crude... What is there to say when production in Russia, America, and OPEC are all at record highs on a day when growth is shown for its weakness. This is Crude's best day in 7 weeks! Epic short squeeze into last trading day of the month and ahead of next week's OPEC meeting
and your guess is as good as ours as to what stocks think of oil...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Because well, you have to laugh really...
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it's NOT Fake....
Overall, very lame shit.
If you want to tame it, then lame it first.
No one gives a shit about a recovery if they're making ponzo profits in the marky
https://youtu.be/hHUbLv4ThOo
The trannies are going down!
not that there's anything wrong with that
Despite the roller coaster mayhem and Unch flirtation ALL major indices were precisely at VWAP at 3:45 (before the final swoon), an astonishing coincidence :)
Boom.
Reality... So hard to shake. Now do some more lines and be awesome!
That Shenzhen chart is tupip-like in its ascent. The correction is going to be entertaining to watch.
i would play that casino if they had $5 tables ...
The "correction" will almost certainly trigger WWIII as the Chinese leaders blame it on the USA, in an effort to avoid being eaten alive by the citizenry.
just another baby seal clubbing day for anyone who took the "bond king's" advice to short bund
“Scream” by Artful Dodger
Bought calls early this morning, Cramer’s lies deceived me
Got stopped right out, and cried myself to sleep
Seems like all these bad trades, they’re all going through
And I can't help but wondering how I can ever go long without you
You see that …
I wanna scream for ZIRP, scream for ZIRP, Janet
Not enough, just five, get another dove inside, like you
ZIRP’s for me, ZIRP’s for me, yeah
Not enough upside, get a dove inside, just like you
Thought I killed my last trades, but they’ve come the Floor
Am I selling short? Well … I’ve never sold short before
So if you want to talk with me, don’t be shocked if I cuss at you
See it's been very hard for me, tell me how bad’s it been for you?
You see that …
I wanna scream at you, scream at you, Janet
Get a dove inside, who hates supply-side, just like you, like you
Scream for QE, why can’t you Janet? Scream for QE, yeah
When you read Keynes’ lines, do you feel warm inside like I do?
I thought the soft GDP print might help bring you around
You’ve strung me out, why’d you string us out?
After you got us all so shamelessly long, darlin’, yeah
{guitar solo}
I wanna scream …
Data is so last millenium, BTFD.
Oil, the dollar and treasuries.
Everything else looks bankrupt.
Chicago PMI totally collapsed.
Apparently paying off all the wrong ppeople again...
Can someone smarter than me reliably compare Sweden's most recent economic indicators to ours? Or show me how?
The coiled spring is I believe pricing in a Grexit, if there is a deal, look for a 3% up day, and a real face melter.... Just saying... I really dont think they can and will let the CDS get triggered.
CDS will never be "declared" to be triggered regardless of how many defaults occur. For those relying on CDS for hedges, thanks for the cash suckas!
Debt will get converted to Drachmas. Greeks hyperinflate Drachmas and pay the debt. That's technically not a credit event.
Greeks will use Euros and Dollars to transact their commerce. Pensioners and state or municipal employees get paid in Drachmas and will end up dirt poor unless they're corrupt. Status Quo.
Interior minister says they won't pay and today the Finance minister says they will pay. Varoufakis is again suggesting to rob Peter to pay Paul or something like that.
End of the day, they're either flat ass broke or they're milking the system. Either way, I don't give a shit anymore. The money is gone and it cannot be recouped unless they're shown the door.
They only seem to respond to threats.
Greece, just fuck off already.
Shenzhen: a permanently high plateau.
Hmmm, nothing happening today. Good day to buy gold.
This Zombie market even has some of the old timers who I had some faith in now singing a different tune and apparently drinking the Kool aid.
Art Cashin wandered past the CNBS NYSE floor office this morning and indicated that he had no idea why the Dow sold off 150 points early on. Seriously.
Lets see:
China down 10 % in 2 days
Milwaukee ISM down unexpectedly
Chicago PMI down unexpectedly
Consumers Confidence dropped unexpectedly 5 points
GDP adjusted from positive .2 to Negative .7
And the market at one of its most over valued levels. EVER
Nope, No reason for the Dow to drop 150 points. Nope. Hell - Frankly I am surprised it didn't close UP.
Dow 20,000! Hillary 2016! Our future is so bright