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One Of These Two Is Not "Seasonally-Adjusted" Enough
Once upon a time, the Chicago PMI was the best advance indicator, printing usually some 24 hours in advance, to the ISM's Manufacturing "report on business" seasonally-adjusted survey. Unfortunately, in 2015 this has no longer been the case, with the Chicago manufacturing data tumbling into contraction territory for 3 of the past 4 months (most recently printing near 6 year lows), even as the ISM data has printed consistently telegraphed improving seasonally-adjusted survey results (coming in a time of -0.7% GDP growth).
Which makes one wonder: is the Chicago manufacturing snapshot no longer an accurate indication of what to expect from the US manufacturing sector, or, the real question, is one of these two data sets not not seasonally-adjusted enough. (that's of course rhetorical: everyone knows that it is the worse data that always needs more seasonal adjustments).
One more thing worth noting: the last time the Chicago PMI printed dramatically below its ISM cousin was in late 1999, early 2000, just ahead of an imminent recession.
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Whatever, they're both bullish.
And it's monkey hammer time.
Mulligans 4EVA!
Hey! we're going to need tons and tons more of that Rathchild magic paper to dump on the markets in order to cool down the demand for the real stuff.
dupe
If you just accepted slvery you wouldn't have to worry about any of this anymore.
I've heard Agenda 21 isn't all that bad, we should look into it.
With a free trip to "fun camp", what more could you want?
I just can't understand why so many are resistant to optimism, to the glass half full perspective.
Its not like they are going to try and fuck some folks or anything...
I don't see how anyone looking at the government data cannot just want to pull their hair all out and say f it all. The deceptions, rigging, lies, etc are just like no other time in our history and it can't be much fun analyzing this data for any useful purpose.
Is easy.
*Reads positive data*
"BTAFH!"
*Reads negative data"
"BTFD!"
*Reads neutral data*
"Who else is printing right now?"
All that any 'data' coming out of a government mouthpiece is good for any more is entertainment value. It's very sad to say that in America; there used to be values and scruples at least at some levels in government.
Learning how to read the data is the tricky part and while the raw data is available, unless you understand statistics, its all Greek. Seasonal adjustment first came into use to 'smooth the curve', but has since become one of the most abused algorithms in existence.....
Why don't you use the same y-axis?
Beat me to it.... my thoughts exactly!
same y-axis?...
That would expose the seasonality wouldn't it? By the way, would this chart be inversed if it occurred south of the equator?
Only when you flush the toilet.
Just by eye, this looks like the alignment that gives the least distance between the two data series. This is a pretty standard way to complare two series.