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ADP Employment Bounces, Still Weaker Than All Of 2014, 3rd Monthly Decline In Manufacturing Jobs
Having fallen for 5 straight months (and missed expectations for the last 4), much to the 'recovery meme' chagrin of Mark Zandi and his fellow extrapolators, May's 201k print (against expectations of 200k) was a modest bounce that will be seen as heralding the post-weather recovery. At 201k, ADP job change remains below every month of 2014 aside from January. Led by small business - which gained 122k of the 201k jobs, we note that large firms 500-999 employees actually saw jobs being shed. Furthermore, Service-providing jobs dominated with 192 of 201k jobs coming from that segment of the economy and just 9k growth in goods producing with manufacturing dropping 5k. Zandi's helpful remarks provide the narrative, "I think the economy is doing much better than the data shows and when it is all revised will show strong growth." Brilliant.
A modest bouince but the 3rd monthly decline in manufacturiong jobs...
Via ADP
And some more charts:
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
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Is it 94 million yet?
Rate hike time!
Double dog dare you Yellen.
How can they not? All the talk of strong recovery.
Bullish. Amazingly bullish.
Oh..and it should be hammer time soon.
Yup, make the coffee....thump some gold.
Sure enough the blowhorn had Steve LIEsman & Mark Zandi shilling for the "Ministry of Truthisms". Zandi is so full of shit I'm surprised he can sit upright.
Why do we need the data? Zandi can just come on CNBS once a month and tell us "he thinks" the economy is getting better.
Zandi's correct more often than not.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/06/02/dont-celebrat...
If the Tyler's didn't mention Zandi on ZH would anybody hear him? I stopped watching the infomercial know as CNBC years ago.
I'm surer than Mark that the numbers really don't matter, and in this country every service employee will be serving every other service employee and everyone will be rich, and living in million dollar homes, and sending their children to ivy league schools, and they'll all become lawyers or doctors or investment bankers, and everyone hates us for "our" freedoms and our exceptionalism, and our government for the people by the people, and everything's is lalalalalalalala, its all good, no great and we're the growth engine of the world and small businesses are the backbone of America and lalalalala, and and and and ........
"I think the economy is doing much better than the data shows and when it is all revised will show strong growth."
the economy blows. based on the fact the fed still has to keep rates at 0% for fear on sending every "asset" in the world into a death spiral.
I wonder how many of the 75,000 jobs added to very small companies were people starting mowing businesses for the summer. I swear every other truck around here has a magnetic sign and small trailer with riding mower, push mower, and trimmer behind it. This county has an official unemployment rate of 8% with 30% of households earning less than $30k/year, who the hell has the money to pay these people to mow grass?
Hard to make money mowing these days. My lawn service costs plunged over the last 8 years from $125/mow to the present $35 ... there's a flood of people begging to mow due to wide open borders. I'm guessing my cost will drop to less then $30 by mid-summer.
How big is your property and how long does it take to mow and trim?
It's the same property as it was 8 years ago with no new additionas of threes, shrubs, etc but we now have much cheaper labor across the board in our area.
Any work that needs to be done you can head over to the Home Depot parking lot where you can get strong men for a decent wage. The number of men there has quadrupled the last few years...all looking for work, for a few dollars to feed themselves. They're reliable and hard working and very good souls.
Learning a little Spanish goes a long way these days.
Not much immigrant labor around here. No jobs, no money, and no interstate to bring them. Hour to the east in a town along the interstate and it's a flood of illegals, but they also have a decent manufacturing sector and a even bigger industrial town a half hour north. All we have here are a few stone mills, quarries, and defense contractors that prefer to bring in talent from across the nation. If you are a local without a job you either move elsewhere, do odd jobs, or sell meth to make ends meet and the meth business isn't what it use to be with cheap cartel drugs moving in now.
Small manufacutered home next door has at least 2 families living in it with several used vehicles that never leave the driveway. I was a unemployed bum for almost a year, started my own business when I realized I wasn't going to find a job. Business was good the last 2 quarters of 2014, cratered the 1st this year. Took a job below my skill set, only got it because I met the hiring supervisor peddling my wares when I 1st started my company. Damn lucky to have what I have, wife is a nurse and keeps getting screwwed over on compensation. I see myself struggling to make ends meet again in another year the way inflation and wages are going.
Just adding my glowing review of what is now life in Middle Flyover America
The downward pressure on wages is huge due in large part to Globalization. I was always surprised unions voted for dems (like Clinton) who pushed Globalization through since those dems essentially voted themselves out of a job.
The blue collar jobs are at most risk but tech jobs are under strong pressure from the H1B visa people who will easily work for less then half of what an American is paid.
The academics still think globalization is a good thing. The big US companies are happy to take extra short-term profits no matter how destructive long-term of themselves and the overall country and economy. And Mitt Romney was their prophet.
The morons in DC all think it's going great, they have still not groked the huge disconnect between the 1% (really the 0.01%) and the rest. Or they are simply bribed. Or they know, but dare not speak, would certainly lose their corporate contributors. Never, ever been this bad before in the US.
The numbers from last week were revised down over 2.00%.
by revised u mean rigged?
Nah, according to the idiots assembled here, government numbers are only manipulated when they improve. When unemployment or inflation numbers worsen, it's became "even the government understood it could no longer conceal the true state of affairs."
Ready for gold to take a beating (again), Zero Hedge morons?
Me too! :-)
Of course we are, the coin shop is waiting for me to back up the Chevy to pick up a few more kilos.
We're now in a small business recovery, which is a natural point in the cycle, since 2010 - 2013 was all about large businesses. It's just needs to hold out long enough for the dollar effects to washout/rebound, and then we'll really be in goldilocks territory.